US Forms 15-Point Plan to End Iran War | The China Show 3/25/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Markets are staging a sharp relief rally (Asia up ~2%, oil below $100) on reports of a US 15-point peace plan and potential ceasefire with Iran, though uncertainty remains with additional US troop deployments.
- Todd Jablonski views the rally as a relief from extreme risk premium, remains overweight equities globally, citing strong underlying fundamentals: US growth at ~2.5%, global earnings growth of ~14% for 2026.
- Jablonski specifically favors US large and small caps, sees opportunities in emerging markets like China and Korea, and finds Korean equities potentially undervalued due to attractive fundamentals and chip/electronics demand.
- In fixed income, Jablonski likes short-end credit (investment grade, high yield, EM hard currency) for positive carry, and recommends long-dated US Treasuries as a hedge against negative surprises.
- Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency; suggests the Iran war could spur energy cooperation with China in the disputed South China Sea, despite territorial issues.
- Xiaomi posted its slowest sales growth since 2023 (7.3% YoY) due to slumping smartphone demand and chip shortages, though its EV segment turned profitable with a target of 550k deliveries in 2026.
- Andrew Forrest (Fortescue) labels fossil fuels a "weapon of war," advocates for rapid electrification, and warns China against forming an iron ore cartel, stating it would provoke a severe response from Australia.
- Software stocks are under pressure on reports Amazon is developing AI tools to automate business functions, raising concerns about job displacement and demand for software services.
- Edward Moncreiffe notes heightened volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are driving demand for insurance products, especially legacy planning and wealth transfer, with $5.8 trillion in wealth expected to transfer in the next five years.
- Physical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain near zero despite reports of Iran allowing passage for fees; any reopening would be a complex, high-risk military operation.
- Behnam Ben Taleblu cautions that while the US is signaling a desire for peace, finding a moderate Iranian partner is unlikely, and the regime is a "national security rump state" hardened by conflict.
Trade Ideas
Jablonski stated he is "overweight in the US where we like large and small caps." He believes the underlying US and global economy is strong (US growth ~2.5%, global earnings growth ~14% for 2026), and the relief rally reflects growing confidence that high energy prices and geopolitical tensions may abate. Positive on US equities due to resilient fundamentals and a potential de-escalation in geopolitical risk. Geopolitical tensions re-escalate, causing a renewed spike in oil prices that derails growth.
Jablonski listed China as an opportunity within emerging markets, alongside Korea. He sees a strong underlying global economy supporting emerging market growth, and China stands to benefit from an abatement in energy prices and continued demand. Positive on Chinese equities as part of a broader EM overweight, anticipating cyclical improvement. Geopolitical tensions worsen, or domestic Chinese growth disappoints.
Jablonski highlighted Latin America, specifically Brazil, as "showing some signs, interesting signs." He sees opportunities in select emerging markets beyond Asia, with Brazil exhibiting improving economic indicators. Positive on Brazilian equities as part of a diversified EM allocation. Regional instability or a reversal in commodity prices.
Jablonski said "Korea may be undervalued and that good news may be yet to come." Korean equities have seen price volatility on energy concerns, but fundamentals remain attractive. As energy prices moderate and global demand for chips and electronics persists, the economy is well-positioned. Positive on Korean equities due to attractive valuations and positive fundamental outlook. A renewed energy price shock or a slowdown in global trade and tech demand.
Jablonski stated, "long 30 year Treasuries make sense as a bit of a hedge against a bad news surprise event." In an uncertain geopolitical environment, long-dated Treasuries provide a hedge against negative growth shocks or flight-to-quality flows. Long Treasuries are a defensive hedge, not a core bullish position, but warrant monitoring for portfolio protection. Persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected growth leads to further yield increases.
Jablonski said he likes "credit on the short end of the curve," including investment grade corporates, preferred securities, US dollar high yield, and hard currency EM debt. He believes these instruments offer positive carry and are well-positioned despite elevated spreads, supported by good credit fundamentals. Positive on short-to-medium term credit for its yield and carry potential in a still-growing economy. A sharp economic downturn leading to credit deterioration and widening spreads.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 25, 2026, features Todd Jablonski discussing VTI, FXI, EWZ, EWY, UST, CREDIT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Todd Jablonski · Tickers: VTI, FXI, EWZ, EWY, UST, CREDIT