Todd Jablonski 5.0 6 ideas

Jablonski stated he is "overweight in the US where we like large and small caps." He believes the underlying US and global economy is strong (US growth ~2.5%, global earnings growth ~14% for 2026), and the relief rally reflects growing confidence that high energy prices and geopolitical tensions may abate. Positive on US equities due to resilient fundamentals and a potential de-escalation in geopolitical risk. Geopolitical tensions re-escalate, causing a renewed spike in oil prices that derails growth.

Jablonski said "Korea may be undervalued and that good news may be yet to come." Korean equities have seen price volatility on energy concerns, but fundamentals remain attractive. As energy prices moderate and global demand for chips and electronics persists, the economy is well-positioned. Positive on Korean equities due to attractive valuations and positive fundamental outlook. A renewed energy price shock or a slowdown in global trade and tech demand.

Jablonski listed China as an opportunity within emerging markets, alongside Korea. He sees a strong underlying global economy supporting emerging market growth, and China stands to benefit from an abatement in energy prices and continued demand. Positive on Chinese equities as part of a broader EM overweight, anticipating cyclical improvement. Geopolitical tensions worsen, or domestic Chinese growth disappoints.

Jablonski highlighted Latin America, specifically Brazil, as "showing some signs, interesting signs." He sees opportunities in select emerging markets beyond Asia, with Brazil exhibiting improving economic indicators. Positive on Brazilian equities as part of a diversified EM allocation. Regional instability or a reversal in commodity prices.

Jablonski stated, "long 30 year Treasuries make sense as a bit of a hedge against a bad news surprise event." In an uncertain geopolitical environment, long-dated Treasuries provide a hedge against negative growth shocks or flight-to-quality flows. Long Treasuries are a defensive hedge, not a core bullish position, but warrant monitoring for portfolio protection. Persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected growth leads to further yield increases.

Jablonski said he likes "credit on the short end of the curve," including investment grade corporates, preferred securities, US dollar high yield, and hard currency EM debt. He believes these instruments offer positive carry and are well-positioned despite elevated spreads, supported by good credit fundamentals. Positive on short-to-medium term credit for its yield and carry potential in a still-growing economy. A sharp economic downturn leading to credit deterioration and widening spreads.