Markets Look Calm… But Something Feels Off... ft. Rob Carver | Systematic Investor | Ep.396
Speakers
Rob Carver
— Principal, Bridgewater Associates (former)
Summary
Rob Carver and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss a calm but fragile market backdrop, focusing on oil market dislocations, equity highs despite geopolitical risk, and trend following performance. Rob shares his current portfolio with short bonds and long energies, and the conversation explores return stacking, crisis alpha, and the role of ETFs in systematic investing.
- Market appears calm but feels fragile underneath, with oil futures disconnected from physical prices.
- S&P 500 reached new all-time high despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Rob Carver's trend following portfolio is up ~5.8% YTD, with slow trend signals outperforming.
- Rob is running low risk (about a third of long-term target) with a long equities, short bonds, and small long energies position.
- Discussion of Quantica paper on return stacking shows that adding trend following to equities can improve risk-adjusted returns.
- HedgeNordic article on managed futures ETFs vs replication finds no clear outperformance after adjusting for volatility and interest income.
- Emphasis on simplicity and cost control in systematic trading rather than complex models.
- Scammers impersonating CTAs are active, especially in Germany and Austria.
Trade Ideas
Long energies on oil supply shock.
Rob Carver holds a small long position in energies (oil futures) based on his view that an oil supply shock is likely to play out, driving oil prices higher. He expects the oil price rally to be sustained due to physical market dislocations, though his overall portfolio risk is low and the position size is modest.
Short bonds due to inflation concerns.
Rob Carver is short bonds as part of a portfolio positioning reflecting inflation concerns and uncertainty. He expects that a potential oil supply shock could hurt equities, which his long equity position would suffer, but the short bonds position would provide some offset. The short bonds position is a direct bet on rising yields or inflation.
Up Next
This Top Traders Unplugged video, published April 19, 2026, features Rob Carver discussing WTI, UST. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Rob Carver · Tickers: WTI, UST