Melody Wright: 35-50% Housing Correction Needed, First Wave 10-12% Coming

Summary

Melody Wright discusses the frozen spring selling season, rising mortgage delinquencies, and the myth of a housing shortage. She predicts a 35-50% price correction over several years, with the first 10-12% wave in the next couple of years, and warns of growing distress including prime mortgage weakness and investor fire sales.

• Spring selling season is frozen with lowest sales since 1995.
• Mortgage delinquencies rising non-seasonally, including prime for first time.
• Rage delisting phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse to cut prices.
• Housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking bailout.
• Predicted 35-50% price correction over several years, first wave 10-12% in next couple years.
• Massive shadow inventory from boomers could add 20% more homes annually for a decade.
• Institutional investors are fire selling, e.g., 300 rentals in one market.
• Back half of 2026 could be really ugly as forbearance programs expire.