Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 18, 2026 at 13:00  |  36:46  |  Julia LaRoche Show
Speakers
Chris Whalen — Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors

Summary

Chris Whalen analyzes the inflationary impact of the Iran war, which he expects to persist through 2026, keeping the Fed on hold. He reviews bank earnings, highlighting risks in private credit and commercial real estate, and recommends gold ETFs and mortgage REITs for income while avoiding T-bills.

  • Inflation from the Iran war will continue to affect prices through 2026.
  • The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates due to inflation concerns.
  • Bank earnings show falling credit costs but lack disclosure on private credit exposures.
  • Commercial real estate remains a long-term drag on cities and banks.
  • Regional banks are exposed to private credit risks as debt may convert to equity.
  • Gold and silver ETFs are attractive due to mining industry consolidation.
  • Mortgage REITs like Annaly and AGNC offer high income returns.
  • T-bills are unattractive investments in the current inflationary environment.
Trade Ideas
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 14:29
Avoid commercial real estate drag.
Commercial real estate is a long-term drag on communities and banks, with higher delinquencies, lower valuations for older buildings, and reduced tax revenues, making it unattractive for investment.
XLRE MED
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 27:13
Avoid regional banks for private credit risk.
Regional banks are heavily exposed to private credit, and as debt in private equity deals converts to equity, these banks will face significant losses, implying they should be avoided.
KRE MED
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 30:02
Buy gold and silver ETFs for mining consolidation.
Due to limited productive capacity in the mining industry and expected consolidation, demand for precious metals remains high, making ETFs like Amplify Silver, iShares Gold, iShares Gold Micro, and VanEck Junior Gold attractive investments.
SLV IAU IAUM GDXJ HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 32:52
Avoid T-bills due to inflation.
Given the inflationary outlook, owning T-bills does not provide a real return and is therefore a losing investment.
BIL HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 33:08
Buy mortgage REITs for high income.
Income is scarce in the current environment, and mortgage REITs like Annaly, AGNC, PennyMac, and Mike Nierenberg's REIT offer high returns in the teens, making them attractive for income-seeking investors.
NLY AGNC PMT Mike Nierenberg's REIT MED
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This Julia LaRoche Show video, published April 18, 2026, features Chris Whalen discussing XLRE, KRE, SLV, IAU, IAUM, GDXJ, BIL, NLY, AGNC, PMT, Mike Nierenberg's REIT. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chris Whalen  · Tickers: XLRE, KRE, SLV, IAU, IAUM, GDXJ, BIL, NLY, AGNC, PMT, Mike Nierenberg's REIT