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20:03
Aug 20
Aug 20
COPPER
Iron Ore
SLX 1ST
BTC
Gold vs S&P 500
▾
HIGH
Physical grid buildout drives industrial metals.
The US grid buildout, reshoring, and self-sufficiency push are physical endeavors that cannot be financed with dollar swap lines. Gromen likes silver, copper, iron ore, and steel because building real infrastructure and manufacturing capacity requires these commodities, especially as the US tries to catch China on electricity generation and industrial capacity.
COPPER LONG
Iron Ore LONG
SLX LONG
SILVER LONG
Liquidity injections support Bitcoin long term.
Gromen says he likes Bitcoin long term. He also notes that the liquidity injections and rate cuts needed to manage the dollar/yen carry-trade problem would be good for Bitcoin, and he sees Bitcoin as another beneficiary of the same monetary debasement dynamic, though sovereign concerns about on/off ramps keep his conviction lower than gold.
BTC LONG
Gold outperforms equities over next years.
The war and Treasury containment are positive for stocks in dollar terms but negative for stocks in gold terms. Since early 2022 the S&P 500 total return is down nearly 30% against gold, and since 2000 still down about 50%. Gromen expects gold to continue outperforming equities over the next two to five years.
Gold vs S&P 500 LONG
Liquidity and inflation support US equities.
The Treasury and Fed will not allow a nominal US default and will contain long-end yields through buybacks, yield curve control, and liquidity injections. That supports nominal GDP growth, financing, and inflation, so US equities should be owned in dollar terms and should not be shorted in dollars. He says stocks can go much higher in nominal terms in a revaluation or liquidity-driven scenario.
SPY LONG
Long-term Treasuries lose real value.
Gromen is bearish on long-term Treasuries on a real basis, though not necessarily nominally because the US government will not default and will pin yields. He notes TLT is already down 90-95% against gold since 2014 and thinks it has another 90-95% to fall against gold, mostly via gold rising. He says stay away from the long end of the curve and own gold instead.
TLT AVOID
AI bubble eventually busts; take profits.
AI will be revolutionary, but the current AI capex boom is another classic capex bubble. All five prior US capex booms ended in busts. Gromen says the bubble has not peaked yet, so he would not short it here, but investors should take profits and rotate toward gold because once two to three years into prior bubbles, long-term investors did better selling the bubble and buying gold.
AI/tech stocks AVOID
AI capex keeps semiconductors rallying.
Jack argues investors should not short semiconductors because AI capex commitments are real and large: Google reportedly has $800 billion in forward purchase commitments, Nvidia could make around $300 billion in operating profits, and private capital is being raised for AI securities. He expects semiconductor and power equipment earnings to reflect this reality and thinks the AI trade goes higher before any bubble peak.
NVDA LONG
SMH LONG
Dollar-yen rangebound to avoid carry crises.
The US and Japan are trapped between a dollar carry trade and a yen carry trade. If the dollar gets too strong, offshore dollar borrowers are forced to sell assets; if the yen gets too strong, the yen carry trade unwinds. They will therefore manage USD/JPY in a range with rate cuts, liquidity injections, and intervention, making it a policy-supported rangebound setup with occasional crisis risk.
USD/JPY WATCH
Buy cheap software stocks sold off.
For people who believe AI is a bubble, Jack suggests buying software stocks that have been sold off indiscriminately because the market assumes AI will ruin them. Many trade at only 15-20x earnings, so they are an obvious non-bubble pocket of the stock market with upside if those fears are overdone.
IGV LONG
Debt spiral forces negative real rates, gold.
Gromen lays out a legal/mechanical path for a massive gold revaluation. The Treasury can use the Exchange Stabilization Fund to bid gold aggressively, settle trade deficits in gold, and then instruct the Fed to revalue its gold from $42/oz to $20,000/oz under existing accounting rules. That would deposit about $5 trillion into the Treasury General Account and drive gold dramatically higher while restructuring Treasury debt.
GLD LONG
HIGH
00:22
Aug 17
Aug 17
MSFT
META
GOOG
HYG 1ST
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hidden debt makes AI buildout riskier.
Hyperscaler AI capex is increasingly financed with off-balance-sheet lease and purchase commitments rather than visible debt; disclosed obligations jumped from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in a single quarter, with another roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in purchase commitments, and the shift from equity-funded to debt-funded AI capex makes the buildout riskier than an equity-led boom.
MSFT WATCH
META WATCH
GOOG WATCH
High yield safer, private credit riskier.
High yield is now far more solid than it has ever been because risky lending migrated to private credit; over half the high-yield market is BB, its technicals are strong, while private credit saw too much money flood in too quickly, used spray-and-pray origination, and now faces a default cycle likely worse than backward-looking numbers suggest.
HYG LONG
BIZD AVOID
Nvidia pricing power will erode eventually.
Nvidia enjoys monopoly-like pricing power as the picks-and-shovels provider for AI, but pricing power in capitalist systems tends to erode, and the market is currently pricing in that nobody else can ever create GPUs at Nvidia's scale and quality; he worries that assumption will fail.
NVDA AVOID
CoreWeave is a vulnerable debt outlier.
CoreWeave is a heavily indebted extreme outlier in the AI buildout, with a massive gap between EBITDA and net income loss and no fallback business like the large hyperscalers; he worries about such outliers much more than Meta, Alphabet or Amazon.
CoreWeave AVOID
Compute futures coming; watch democratization risks.
He expects compute to become a tradable asset class and can see compute futures emerging, which he views as interesting and has great hopes for, but warns that democratization often means retail investors take risk they are not ready for and that lending against compute has unresolved risks.
Compute futures WATCH
Oracle is weakest hyperscaler financially.
Oracle is the weakest hyperscaler from a financial standpoint, more indebted relative to revenue and lacking the financial and corporate heft of the other AI capex spenders.
ORCL AVOID
Rating agencies will remain durable franchises.
Credit rating agencies are a stubborn oligopoly because investors and mandates need a common language of credit; their letter ratings are more accurate than critics think, the designation is enshrined in law, and AI is unlikely to displace the need for a Moody's or S&P rating brand.
MCO LONG
SPGI LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
Ex-Goya COO on the $1.4 Trillion Family Business Opportunity in Three Consumer Sectors | Andy Unanue
US lower-middle-market family-run food, beverage, pet, wellness sector
Ethnic / Hispanic food market
Better-for-you healthy snacking sector
Food and beverage co-manufacturing
Upstart food and beverage brands
▾
HIGH
Family-run food, beverage, pet wellness opportunity
The US lower-middle-market family-run food, beverage, pet, and wellness sector is a $1.3-1.4 trillion opportunity; family businesses generate over 70% of GDP and AUA's operational playbook can unlock 15-30% efficiencies with moderate leverage and multiple exit buyers.
US lower-middle-market family-run food, beverage, pet, wellness sector LONG
Ethnic foods benefit from demographic tailwinds
The ethnic and Hispanic food market is growing because demographics are shifting, ethnic families have more children, and cultural cross-pollination expands demand; moreover, Spanish-language TV advertising offers cheaper price per eyeball than English-language TV, improving customer acquisition economics.
Ethnic / Hispanic food market LONG
Healthier snacking gains from GLP-1 demand
Better-for-you healthy snacking has durable tailwinds from GLP-1 drugs: people are eating less caloric volume but still need protein and fiber; high-protein, high-fiber, clean-label snacks and smaller pack sizes are positioned to grow as consumers seek healthier but satisfying options.
Better-for-you healthy snacking sector LONG
Co-manufacturing avoids brand binary risk
In high-growth categories like protein bars, meat snacks, and better-for-you snacks, AUA deliberately avoids betting on individual upstart brands and instead invests in co-manufacturers; these brands increasingly outsource manufacturing, giving co-manufacturers exposure to category growth without binary brand risk.
Food and beverage co-manufacturing LONG
Upstart food and beverage brands AVOID
Private label store brands are upgrading
Private label store brands are being built more like real brands rather than cheap generics for lower-income consumers, creating another growth avenue alongside co-manufacturing.
Private label food and beverage store brands LONG
Beverage co-manufacturing safer than upstart brands
Beverage upstart brands have binary outcomes, with many failures for every success, and beverage manufacturing has less internal know-how and is more replicable than food manufacturing; AUA therefore avoids branded beverage bets and seeks beverage co-manufacturing exposure instead.
Beverage co-manufacturing LONG
Upstart beverage brands AVOID
Authentic family-owned brands win consumers
Consumers increasingly value authenticity and family ownership over mega-brand ownership; smaller authentic family-run food and beverage brands have a trust advantage, and large CPG companies are often quietly buying them to preserve that authentic image.
Authentic family-owned food and beverage brands LONG
Hispanic cheese expands via acquisitions
Hispanic cheese is regionalized because Mexican cheese demand is stronger west of the Mississippi and Caribbean/Central American cheese demand is stronger east; Tropical Cheese is number one in Hispanic cheese east of the Mississippi, and the strategy is to expand West by product expansion or by acquiring a Mexican cheese company.
Hispanic cheese brands LONG
Pets are gaining consumer wallet share
Pet wellness benefits from the humanization of pets: consumers cut children's budgets before pets during the 2008 downturn, spending rises with emotional closeness such as pets sleeping in bed, younger generations delay having children, and baby boomers replace grown children with pets.
PAWZ LONG
HIGH
19:52
Aug 12
Aug 12
Monetary Matters
10d
GLD FLIP
SILVER FLIP
GDX FLIP
SOXX FLIP
QQQ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold and silver in long-term bear.
He is not long gold, silver, or GDX and sold near the January 29 high. Long-term valuation extremes versus crude, soybeans, housing and CPI argue a major multi-year/long-term top; he expects rallies within a long-term bear market but no new highs, and gold, silver and GDX likely peak again this week and trade back down.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
GDX AVOID
SOXX long after semiconductor crash.
20% long the Philadelphia semiconductor index after it lost over 20-28% into the July 29 low following a more than 100% run from March; he got into the losers because they were way oversold, panic selling should produce at least a short-term bounce, and if the July intraday low holds the recovery can continue.
SOXX LONG
Nasdaq 100 long after panic low.
After the crash lows, he is watching for a possible short-term top this week due to Montgomery cycle dates and exhaustive upside gaps into recovery highs in Nasdaq 100 and KOSPI. Best case is a retest of the July lows, especially KOSPI and SOXX, within the next month or two.
QQQ LONG
KOSPI long after 44% crash.
5% long KOSPI/EWY after the Korean index fell 43.93% in 27 days into the July 29 Montgomery cycle date with panic liquidation and margin selling. He argues the crash low most likely leads to a three-to-five month strong upside move, though a retest of the lows is quite probable.
EWY LONG
S&P 500 long on positive divergence.
Positioned roughly 50% long S&P 500 via SPY after covering shorts on July 29-30. S&P 500 held above its June 9 low while Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia semis made new lows, a positive divergence; S&P 500 also broke above its prior all-time high on an upside gap, which he says is a very bullish pattern that follows through roughly 80% of the time. April buy-signal models also project higher S&P 500 levels.
SPY LONG
Russell 2000 long on momentum thrust.
Nearly 10% long Russell 2000 as part of oversold bounce positioning after covering shorts. The Russell 2000 had its greatest 10-day rate of change in five years off the March low, a momentum thrust that historically has preceded higher prices.
IWM LONG
HIGH
19:41
Aug 07
Aug 07
Monetary Matters
15d
TENB 1ST
RELY
WISE
META 1ST
SPT
▾
HIGH
AI-driven cyber shift benefits Tenable.
A structural shift in cybersecurity is underway from identity-based attacks to vulnerability exploitation, as AI massively lowers the cost of finding code vulnerabilities. Tenable is the leader in exposure management, with a platform that scans assets, identifies critical vulnerabilities, and helps fix them. Trading at 4x EV/sales vs CrowdStrike and Palo Alto at 20x, Tenable's growth is poised to accelerate.
TENB LONG
Remitly dominates migrant cross-border payments.
Remitly is the digital native Western Union killer for migrant remittances. It has built strong brand trust and mind share in migrant communities, with send volumes growing 30-40% annually and revenue growing 25%. Take rates are slowly declining but volume and electronification of cash provide long-duration growth.
RELY LONG
Wise disrupts expensive correspondent banking.
Wise has built its own infrastructure to circumvent expensive correspondent banking, reducing cross-border payment costs and improving speed. It is aggressively lowering take rates to gain share, targeting businesses and partner banks. Durable secular growth as it displaces legacy international transfers.
WISE LONG
Meta's AI floundering, outlook negative.
Meta's AI strategy lacks clarity and the company appears to be floundering after heavy spending with little to show. Cultural mishaps in AI research and poaching of talent have not yielded results. The outlook is negative, and they no longer have a position after selling last year.
META AVOID
AI fears overdone; SBC normalization ahead.
Sprout was priced for complete disruption from AI, but the market overreacted. High stock-based compensation (SBC) masks true earning power; SBC will normalize as a percentage of revenue, leading to much higher GAAP earnings. The sell-off created an attractive entry point.
SPT LONG
Portable gas for data centers and SpaceX.
Stabilist Solutions provides portable natural gas (virtual pipeline) for data centers that lack pipeline access, and also serves SpaceX for rocket launches. The company recently signed a large data center contract and is set to benefit from massive SpaceX launch growth. It is a small-cap speculative position with strong unit economics.
SLNG LONG
Bandwidth solution for distributed data centers.
As data centers scale out across geographic locations and face bandwidth bottlenecks, Smart Optics provides best-in-class hardware and software to convert data to light and modulate optical signals between data centers. Its solutions are tailor-made for the rise of distributed, scaled-out data centers.
SMOP.ST LONG
Sensors for humanoid robotics boom.
VPG (Vishay Precision Group) makes strain gauges and sensors that go into the hands of humanoid robots. With AI enabling the brain for robotics, humanoid robotics could become the largest industry in 10 years. VPG already has key prototype customers like Tesla and Figure, positioning it for explosive hockey-stick growth.
VPG LONG
Hidden asset and niche gaming growth.
PaySafe is an overleveraged but deeply undervalued payment processor. A hidden digital wallet subsidiary makes up 60-70% of enterprise value; a sale or rerating would be a major catalyst. It also has niche exposure to gaming and prediction markets where specialized processing is needed and large competitors shy away.
PSFE LONG
Undervalued marketplace resilient to AI.
Upwork is a hard-to-replicate marketplace connecting businesses to high-value freelancers. While low-value jobs under $500 face AI competition, the core high-value business remains resilient and AI will empower freelancers. The stock trades at just over 1x EV/sales and 6x EV/free cash flow, an incredibly cheap valuation for a growing network-effects business.
UPWK LONG
Cheap small turbines for data center power.
Capstone Energy produces small microturbines (50kW-3MW) that provide fast-to-market behind-the-meter power for data centers, edge data centers, and manufacturing. The company operates at only 10% capacity with strong tailwinds, and trades at 3x revenue versus Bloom Energy at 15-20x, offering significant asymmetric upside.
CGEH LONG
HIGH
18:58
Aug 04
Aug 04
Monetary Matters
18d
SMH
LRCX 1ST
MU 1ST
MTUM 1ST
Value and Momentum Factor Strategy
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor earnings growth remains exceptional and underestimated.
Extraordinary earnings growth in the semiconductor space will continue, driven by AI capex and hyperscaler spending, making the sector bullish. Analyst estimates for Lam Research are too low; if Lam Research's earnings exceed expectations, memory prices will remain high, leaving Micron trading at only 8x earnings and undervalued.
SMH LONG
LRCX LONG
MU LONG
Momentum anomaly persists; limited capital chasing it.
Momentum investing has been persistently profitable because it is driven by extrapolators (return chasers) whose behavior creates trends, and the capital allocated to pure momentum strategies remains limited relative to the size of the market. This prevents momentum from being arbitraged away, making it a robust anomaly.
MTUM LONG
Value plus momentum is the most robust strategy.
The combination of long-term value and momentum is the most robust investment approach across markets. Historical evidence and their model show that putting value (focus on long-term cash flows) together with momentum (as a risk signal or allocation overlay) yields the best risk-adjusted returns.
Value and Momentum Factor Strategy LONG
US equities offer only 1% risk premium.
US equity valuations are extremely high, with a long-term expected return of only ~6% and a risk premium of just 1% over safe assets. Buybacks, static asset allocators, and extrapolators have inflated prices, but the low expected return makes US equities unattractive. Elm Wealth is notably underweight US equities.
S AVOID
Long bonds show negative momentum; avoid now.
TIPS and nominal long-term bonds are currently in a negative momentum state, signaling elevated risk. Elm Wealth is underweight these bonds and instead overweight treasury bills, waiting for interest rates and bond prices to stabilize before potentially re-entering.
TLT AVOID
Non-US equities offer better long-term returns.
Non-US equities offer healthier long-term returns relative to safe assets than US equities. Valuation-based earnings yields are higher, momentum is positive, and the risk environment is low. Elm Wealth is quite overweight non-US equities.
VXUS LONG
HIGH
22:35
Aug 02
Aug 02
Monetary Matters
20d
XLE 1ST
SPY 1ST
XLV
XLF 1ST
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy energy, financials, healthcare sectors
Capital is rotating into value laggards as part of the risk-on broadening; the portfolio is adding energy (with refiners benefiting from wide crack spreads), financials, and healthcare to balance secular growth exposure.
XLE LONG
XLV LONG
XLF LONG
Macro risk-on supports US equities
Macro risk indicators (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity) remain broadly supportive for equities over the next 3-6 months, with equity market broadening out and average stocks making higher highs, confirming a risk-on regime.
SPY LONG
Buy tech and semis after crash
After the sharp correction in tech and semiconductor names, the fund is tactically buying back into these sectors for a bounce, while still maintaining a value barbell.
XLK LONG
AI trade dead money for now
AI and semiconductor trade is in a dead-money phase, similar to Bitcoin and gold after their tops; the agentic AI narrative is exhausted, and until a new narrative emerges, prices will likely move sideways without crashing.
SMH AVOID
Avoid European equities, energy crisis
European equities are unattractive due to exposure to energy crisis, heavy regulation, and competition from cheap Chinese exports; the region faces structural headwinds.
VGK AVOID
Avoid India equities, geopolitical headwinds
India is vulnerable as a middle power between China and the US; the US is not supportive of India's manufacturing rise, and high food inflation limits RBI's ability to ease policy.
Indian equities AVOID
Tactical long Chinese tech and AI
Chinese tech and AI stocks offer tactical trading opportunities following LPPL exhaustion buy signals in June and rotation from Korea, with China's strength in open-weight AI models supporting its tech sector.
Chinese AI stocks LONG
KWEB LONG
Gold floor, hold as portfolio hedge
Gold has likely found a floor after its meme-driven correction; it serves as a stagflation hedge and is preferred over nominal bonds in a multi-asset portfolio, though a catalyst for rally is still absent.
GLD LONG
Avoid Chinese consumer stocks
Chinese consumer equities should be avoided until a major revaluation of the renminbi or a shift in policy, as domestic demand remains weak and household wealth is depressed by falling real estate prices.
Chinese consumer equities AVOID
Latin America equities preferred region
Latin American equities are the preferred region, benefiting from the geopolitical landscape where the US uses carrots rather than sticks, unlike India which gets caught between US and China.
ILF LONG
Buy VPX ETF alternative to S&P
VPX ETF is a systematic long-only US equity strategy that uses capital cycle, quality, and crowding models with factor timing to outperform the S&P 500 with better upside/downside capture; it is positioned in energy, financials, and recently adding tech.
VPX LONG
Long SONIA futures, BoE less hawkish
The cleanest trade is long SONIA futures, betting that the Bank of England will be less hawkish due to high rates but significant downside risks to UK growth and inflation.
SONIA LONG
HIGH
21:55
Jul 29
Jul 29
Monetary Matters
24d
XLE 1ST
SMH 1ST
META 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Take profits on energy stocks now.
Energy stocks were her top pick coming into the year and the top-performing sector YTD, but from here through year-end she is more cautious and recommends realizing profits.
XLE AVOID
Semiconductor boom if hold and capex continues.
If the Fed holds rates and additional capex investment continues, semiconductors could see a boom with additional upside; the AI monetization story is real and there are opportunities.
SMH LONG
Meta benefits as ad spend shifts social.
Ad spend will shift from search to social media as search changes with LLMs, benefiting Meta. People will buy more through social media; the transition takes time and he personally owns Meta stock.
META LONG
Gold hedge against Fed credibility loss.
Gold is a hedge against loss of Federal Reserve policy credibility, supported by concerns that the Fed will not be able to control inflation. Recommends accumulation on retracement.
GLD LONG
HIGH
13:52
Jul 28
Jul 28
Monetary Matters
25d
U.S. 10-Year Treasury
GLD
U.S. 30-Year Treasury
BTC
SPY
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-term Treasuries, own gold instead.
The supply-demand imbalance for US long-term bonds is unresolvable without yield curve control or massive dollar devaluation. Entitlement and defense spending make sustained high real rates impossible. Governments will choose to inflate away the debt, crushing real returns for bondholders. Long-term bonds are a real bubble and should be avoided.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury AVOID
U.S. 30-Year Treasury AVOID
Gold to surge on dollar devaluation.
Global off-balance sheet liabilities (boomer entitlements, veterans benefits) and defense spending are driving a structural inflationary spiral. The US government cannot afford positive real yields and will eventually devalue the dollar, forcing central banks and investors to buy gold. China's massive gold accumulation signals that gold, not bonds, is the true safe haven. Gold will continue to rally in dollar terms as the dollar is debased.
GLD LONG
Buy Bitcoin after equity selloff and Fed backstop.
Bitcoin will likely sell off alongside tech in a risk-off event, but when the AI/tech bubble bursts and the Fed is forced to backstop equity markets, Bitcoin will rally sharply. He wants to accumulate Bitcoin on that dip when Fed intervention is imminent. Not an immediate buy; wait for the correction and the policy response signal.
BTC WATCH
Buy S&P 500 dips, Fed will backstop.
Any significant equity market selloff will ultimately be met with Fed or Treasury intervention because the US fiscal situation cannot tolerate a sustained downturn. In dollar terms, stocks will recover and go higher, driven by liquidity injections. Therefore, buying the dip in S&P 500 is a winning strategy despite near-term risks from AI and trade wars.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
16:59
Jul 26
Jul 26
Monetary Matters
27d
US long-dated government bonds
US Dollar (DXY)
Business Development Companies (BDCs)
EWT 1ST
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Fiscal deficits threaten long-end Treasury yields.
US government debt is rising rapidly with no attempt to control fiscal deficits, which could cause longer-end yields to march higher, create self-reinforcing cycles, and spark volatility sooner rather than later, posing a medium-term risk to US Treasuries.
US long-dated government bonds WATCH
US fiscal profligacy weakens dollar medium-term.
Persistent large US fiscal deficits, combined with relative fiscal consolidation attempts in Europe and UK, and tolerance within Trump administration for a weaker dollar, suggest medium-term downward pressure on the US dollar.
US Dollar (DXY) WATCH
BDC discounts offer value if fears overblown.
If concerns about private credit are overblown, publicly traded BDCs trading at significant discounts offer value.
Business Development Companies (BDCs) LONG
Taiwan benefits from AI supply chain.
Taiwan is also a beneficiary of the AI supply chain boom alongside South Korea, though the speaker provides less detail.
EWT LONG
South Korea benefits from AI spending boom.
The AI infrastructure spending boom is benefiting countries that are key parts of the supply chain, notably South Korea, which is experiencing strong economic growth and wealth creation.
EWY LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
Monetary Matters
1mo
IEF 1ST
US Listed Asset Managers
JGBUX 1ST
GLD 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
10-year Treasury yield heading to 10%
Political shift toward wage growth, full employment, and heavy government spending without matching taxation will drive inflation and shrink foreign demand for US Treasuries. The era of building large pools of capital that suppressed rates is ending, and the 10-year Treasury yield is headed to 10% as real rates need to be around 3% to keep capital in deposits rather than real assets.
IEF SHORT
Listed asset managers face rate headwinds
Private credit and private equity firms built their models on ever-lower interest rates. With rates now rising and pools of capital shrinking, these businesses face structural headwinds. Even with credit spreads at all-time lows, liquidity issues have appeared, signaling asset quality problems. Listed asset managers are particularly vulnerable and could continue to decline.
US Listed Asset Managers AVOID
Japanese bonds weaken as yields rise further
Japanese government bonds have been a leading indicator for US Treasuries, selling off early as investors recognized the political shift toward wage support and spending. The pressure for higher wages in Japan erodes appetite for fixed income, and yields are likely to keep rising as domestic investors demand more compensation for expected wage inflation.
JGBUX SHORT
Gold rises as reserves shift from Treasuries
The freezing of Russian foreign reserves has eroded trust in holding foreign sovereign bonds as reserves. Countries will naturally shift reserves back to gold, as was the norm before 1980. This flow out of Treasuries into gold benefits gold prices, and the metal will act as a hedge in a higher-inflation regime.
GLD LONG
Semiconductors are the new oil, prices stay high
Modern economic growth is driven by semiconductors and compute, making them the new oil. AI capex by large tech companies is defensive spending to protect their moats against disruption, and they are unlikely to cut spending because the first to stop investing loses. Supply is restricted by export controls on China, keeping chip prices elevated.
SMH LONG
HIGH
15:16
Jul 20
Jul 20
Monetary Matters
1mo
NOW
ARCC
FSK 1ST
ADBE
ARES
▾
MED
Short ServiceNow and Adobe on AI disruption
AI frontier models will disrupt many enterprise software companies, whose contracts will roll off and revenue growth assumptions will fail. Public software names are better than private equity holdings but are still overvalued and will fall further. Nemeth explicitly states he is bearish on ServiceNow and Adobe.
NOW AVOID
ADBE AVOID
Short ARCC, long FSK on discount gap
Ares Capital (ARCC) is overvalued relative to FS KKR Capital (FSK). Both BDCs hold around 60% in software loans, but ARCC has more subordinated debt and trades at a tiny discount to NAV while FSK trades at a 50% discount. The market's professional preference for ARCC is unwarranted, making ARCC a crowded long and FSK a deep-value opportunity.
ARCC AVOID
FSK LONG
Short Ares, Blackstone; long Blue Owl
Among publicly traded alternative asset managers, Ares Management has the biggest gap between its premium brand and reality. Blackstone is overrated because its entire business revolves around marketing rather than investment skill. Blue Owl Capital is the most underrated; despite bad public relations, its underwriting quality is stronger than the market believes.
ARES AVOID
OWL LONG
BX SHORT
MED
13:26
Jul 16
Jul 16
Monetary Matters
1mo
SILVER 1ST
COCOA 1ST
MSCI World Index
WTI 1ST
BAL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long precious metals on strong uptrend.
Precious metals are in strong sustained uptrends; the trend-following models maintain long positions in gold, silver and platinum to capture continued upside, letting winners run.
SILVER LONG
PPLT LONG
GLD LONG
Short cocoa as downtrend persists.
Cocoa has been in a sustained downtrend; the models have been short for a long time and the trend continues to work well.
COCOA SHORT
Long global equities on broad uptrend.
Global equity markets are in a broad uptrend with only few exceptions; the fund maintains long exposure across world equity indices to follow the trend.
MSCI World Index LONG
Long crude oil on upward trend.
Petroleum markets continue trending higher; the trend-following models are long crude oil to capture the upward price move.
WTI LONG
Long cotton despite recent pullback.
Cotton experienced a massive uptrend in recent months and, despite a pullback, the fund remains long as the overall trend is still intact.
BAL LONG
Long bean oil on sustained rally.
Bean oil has been rallying strongly and for a long time; the position has grown larger in the portfolio as the uptrend continues.
Bean Oil LONG
Short Bitcoin and Ethereum on downtrend.
Crypto markets are not trading well; the trend-following models are short Bitcoin and Ethereum as downtrends persist.
BTC SHORT
ETH SHORT
Short coffee on bearish price trend.
Coffee is in a bearish trend; the fund holds a short position to profit from further downside.
KC SHORT
Short US nat gas on decline.
US natural gas continues to decline in price; the models are short as the downtrend persists.
UNG SHORT
Long copper on rising price trend.
Copper prices are trending higher; the models are long to ride the upward momentum in the industrial metal.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
20:05
Jul 14
Jul 14
Monetary Matters
1mo
BE 1ST
VSH 1ST
NVDA 1ST
AAPL 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bloom Energy solves data center power crunch.
Bloom Energy's fuel cell technology provides quiet, modular, and fast-deployment power for data centers, solving the critical bottleneck of energized land and grid delays. The company has found product-market fit after 20 years, and its solution is being used by data center developers to get power quickly, making it a direct play on the data center buildout.
BE LONG
Capacitor stocks are overhyped and commoditized.
Chasing capacitor bottlenecks like MLCCs is a mistake; they are low-end commoditized components that will eventually see supply catch up and price crashes. China can flood the market, and the same pattern played out during the iPhone super cycle. Stocks like Vishay that have run up on this narrative are likely to suffer.
VSH AVOID
Nvidia dominates AI compute with software moat.
Nvidia is not a commodity company; it creates intelligence through software-hardware co-design and has a massive moat with its CUDA ecosystem and Neotron model. The AI capex cycle is still early, and Nvidia's backlog is measured in years. Despite a recent share price surge, valuation multiples have remained flat or declined because earnings growth has been explosive. He has been long since 2016 and considers it his top pick.
NVDA LONG
Apple wins from AI privacy and services cut.
Apple will bring useful, privacy-focused AI to consumers, and its App Store will capture a cut of AI service revenues (like 15–20% from AI apps). Although current Apple Intelligence is underwhelming, Apple's ethos of on-device data privacy and the potential for AI to drive a super cycle in services make it an attractive AI play.
AAPL LONG
Semiconductor super cycle from AI capex.
The semiconductor sector is in a multi-year super cycle driven by 20 years of underinvestment in hardware capex and the massive demand from AI. Earnings have exploded while valuation multiples have remained flat or declined, meaning the bull market is earnings-driven, not multiple expansion. The complexity of the supply chain and long lead times mean the capex cycle has further to run.
SMH LONG
HBM memory demand strong until 2028.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is special and not a commodity like traditional DRAM. AI models require vast memory for context, and the manufacturing complexity (stacking layers with nanometer precision) creates supply constraints. The three dominant players (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) will see strong demand for years, with capacity catching up only by early 2028, making a small allocation attractive despite cyclicality.
MU LONG
Super Micro rebound play on AI hardware.
Super Micro is a fallen angel with valuable liquid-cooled server rack technology essential for AI data centers. After a recent accounting scandal and stock plunge, the company raised $7 billion from JP Morgan and others, suggesting institutional backing and an order book. Nvidia and AMD depend on them, and the stock may recover from depressed levels as the business rebuilds.
SMCI LONG
HIGH
16:07
Jul 07
Jul 07
Monetary Matters
1mo
N225 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Japan reforms drive Nikkei outperformance
Japan's corporate governance code revision in 2021, accelerated by the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2023, pushed companies to focus on shareholder returns, ROE and capital allocation. The NISA tax-advantaged savings reform doubled accounts to 28 million and is moving household deposits into equities as inflation erodes the value of zero-yielding savings. Cross-shareholding unwinding is fueling an M&A cycle, and mandatory English disclosure broadens the global investor base. Since January 2021 the Nikkei has outperformed the S&P 500 by about 8% per year.
N225 LONG
Samsung dominates AI supply chain
Samsung Electronics accounts for a dominant share of KOSPI returns and is a key beneficiary of the global AI capital expenditure buildout, providing critical semiconductor components.
005930.KS LONG
SK hynix key AI memory beneficiary
SK hynix is a leading memory/DRAM supplier in the AI semiconductor supply chain and, alongside Samsung, represents a disproportionate driver of KOSPI returns, benefiting from sustained AI-related capex.
000660.KS LONG
Korea value-up program fuels KOSPI rally
Korea launched its corporate value-up program in 2024 modeled after Japan's reforms, requiring better capital allocation and shareholder returns. New rules force boards to consider minority shareholder rights, and a capital gains tax relief program until May 2026 encourages repatriation of overseas capital. Retail leveraged ETF trading has surged. These changes plus AI supply-chain demand have driven the KOSPI up 234% since January 2024 versus 63% for the S&P 500.
EWY LONG
HIGH
19:30
Jul 05
Jul 05
20:01
Jul 04
Jul 04
Monetary Matters
1mo
Senior housing real estate
U.S. multifamily rental housing
Data center real estate (development)
B 1ST
U.S. commercial real estate (REITs)
▾
HIGH
Senior housing demand quintuples supply pipeline.
Senior housing is the highest-conviction investment theme because demographics are inevitable: 10,000 Americans turn 80 every day, and the 80+ population will double by 2040. To meet demand, the US needs to build roughly 125,000 senior housing beds per year for the next 15 years, yet the peak annual construction was only 56,000 and the current pipeline is about 25,000. Supply must quintuple, and if the penetration rate of seniors choosing senior living rises with wealth, the demand-supply gap widens further, promising sustained rent and cash-flow growth.
Senior housing real estate LONG
Multifamily housing benefits from demographic tailwinds.
Multifamily rental housing is entering a new cycle supported by demographics: the population aged 35-49 (peak household formation age) will grow by 6.5-10 million over the next decade, driving demand for shelter. The excess supply from the low-rate era is being absorbed, lease trade-outs are stabilizing, and employment (especially office-using jobs) is the key driver of rental growth. While location matters, overall fundamentals are improving, making the sector attractive for the next 10-15 years.
U.S. multifamily rental housing LONG
Data center development oversupply, returns lower.
Data center development is overbuilt relative to the institutional buyer base. About $1 trillion of North American data center construction is underway or planned, which is 3x the entire $280 billion core institutional real estate index. Core open-end funds are natural buyers but struggle with size, diversification, low leverage, and residual value risk. The large development pipeline will take longer to absorb, and many project returns will revert from 20%+ IRRs to lower long-term averages because there are not enough end-buyers to support exit assumptions.
Data center real estate (development) AVOID
Non-trophy office will keep depreciating.
Non-trophy (Class B/C) office properties face a structural decline. Tenant demand is weak, and replacing tenants is extremely capital-intensive because landlords must provide hundreds of dollars per square foot in inducements (tenant improvements/free rent). That volatility hurts income stability. While trophy office is recovering, the older, less-amenitized product will see continued depreciation and underperformance, so Clarion remains underweight office.
B AVOID
Real estate benefits from private credit outflows.
Real estate is a net beneficiary of concerns around corporate private credit because it is a heavy, low-obsolescence asset class. AI cannot change the need for shelter or warehouses, while software and private credit face disintermediation risk. This relative appeal may drive capital flows into real estate from institutional alternatives investors.
U.S. commercial real estate (REITs) LONG
Industrial real estate driven by e-commerce boom.
Industrial/logistics real estate is driven by a powerful structural trend: e-commerce sales will grow by $1 trillion annually over the next 10 years, creating sustained demand for warehouse and distribution space. Despite some recent supply digestion, strong net absorption is returning, and the sector benefits from low capex requirements and high tenant stickiness. Additional demand comes from data-center-adjacent manufacturing and advanced users, reinforcing long-term rent growth.
INDS LONG
HIGH
14:43
Jul 02
Jul 02
Monetary Matters
1mo
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain
Refining 1ST
ICE 1ST
CHEMICALS 1ST
HOOD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Taiwan, Korea semis cheap growth
AI-driven hardware demand is a multi-decade trend (like China's growth in 2004), not a bubble. Semiconductor supply chain stocks in Taiwan and South Korea are posting incredible earnings growth, yet trade at low multiples because the market doubts the sustainability of capex. The build-out of AI, data centers, and robotics ('Cybertron') will keep driving demand, making these stocks undervalued.
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain LONG
SMH LONG
Energy, shipping surge on supply disruption
The Strait of Hormuz disruption could persist for years, forcing a rearchitecting of global energy supply. Shipping, oil & gas, chemicals, and refining sectors are seeing massive earnings revisions and trade at very low valuations. The market is fading them, similar to memory stocks in 2024, creating a setup for huge upside if the disruption continues.
Refining LONG
CHEMICALS LONG
SHIPPING LONG
XLE LONG
CME, ICE undervalued speculation plays
CME and ICE are high-quality exchange businesses with consistent earnings growth and strong cash flows. They rarely trade below 20x earnings, but ICE is at 15x and CME at 18x. The sell-off driven by perpetual futures competition fears is overblown—institutional volumes, physical delivery, and their ability to offer similar products provide a defense. They also benefit from rising speculation in an inflationary environment.
ICE LONG
CME LONG
Robinhood benefits from speculation boom
Higher inflation drives rampant speculation as money loses value, which directly benefits retail brokerages. Robinhood is a prime beneficiary of the wave of increased trading activity.
HOOD LONG
Hong Kong cheap, savings rotation catalyst
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is one of the world's cheapest markets, trading below 10x forward earnings. Chinese household savings are expected to rotate from real estate and low-yielding fixed income into equities, similar to the post-GFC US recovery, potentially igniting a massive bull market even though recent tech earnings have disappointed.
HSI LONG
Software sector dead money from AI
Software companies face structural disruption from AI: seat-based pricing may shift to usage-based models and backend APIs, threatening current business models. While near-term earnings hold up, the market fears long-term derating, making the sector 'semi-dead money' that should be avoided.
IGV AVOID
S&P 500 to 10,000 on inflation boom
The S&P 500 is in a powerful bull market fueled by a higher inflationary era ('Project Zimbabwe') where nominal assets surge. Earnings are accelerating at 12-15% vs historical 8%, real yields on bonds are near zero, and AI could be even bigger than the internet, justifying a rerate to 25-30x earnings. The economy is strong, unemployment low, and investors remain skeptical, not euphoric. S&P 500 could reach 10,000 by end-2027 and potentially higher.
SPY LONG
European, Japanese banks risk-on shift
Global banks are shifting to a risk-on posture after a decade of conservatism, supported by regulatory changes, high capital levels, and low loan losses. European banks trade at 8-9x earnings with growing profits; Japanese banks like Mitsubishi saw loan growth for the first time in years. Both regions offer re-rating potential.
EUFN LONG
DXJ LONG
Samsung cheap at 7x earnings
Samsung Electronics is a leading memory provider trading at only 7x earnings. In an inflationary, speculative environment, such a dominant technology company at a depressed multiple is an attractive buy, potentially worth borrowing to purchase.
005930.KS LONG
NASDAQ outperforms S&P long term
The NASDAQ consistently outperforms the S&P 500 by 2-3% annually over decades; Erik is shifting his personal portfolio from S&P to NASDAQ to capture this long-term outperformance.
QQQ LONG
HIGH
17:13
Jun 30
Jun 30
Monetary Matters
1mo
SPCX
VGK 1ST
▾
HIGH
SpaceX overvalued, likely to underperform.
SpaceX went public at a price-to-sales ratio over 90. Historically, companies with significant revenue and very high price-to-sales ratios have underperformed on average. At a ~$2 trillion valuation, a lot has to go right for the company to generate the necessary $100 billion in annual after-tax profits to justify the price. Therefore, there is significant concern that SpaceX will underperform.
SPCX AVOID
European stocks underperform due to regulation.
Excessive regulation in Europe imposes a big cost on European companies, putting them at a disadvantage and lowering stock market returns as well as economic growth in the region. European equities are structurally unattractive.
VGK AVOID
HIGH
17:39
Jun 29
Jun 29
Monetary Matters
1mo
GLD 1ST
AI infrastructure and data center companies
Non-US AI-related equities
SILVER 1ST
Long-duration government bonds
▾
HIGH
Crypto, gold and silver are speculative bubbles
Speculative bubbles have formed in crypto, gold, and silver over the last two and a half years. The financial markets are overroought and this is not healthy, making these assets unattractive.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
AI infrastructure boom will produce poor returns
The current AI and data center infrastructure investment boom, driven by intense competition to be number one, is likely to lead to poor returns for the whole sector and a series of mini boom-bust cycles, similar to the 19th-century railroad booms. The AI companies have not yet developed a business model to generate sufficient revenues on the trillions being invested.
AI infrastructure and data center companies AVOID
Global AI companies ex-US offer opportunities
The AI boom is a global phenomenon that is tapping into a full range of global companies, and US investors are too parochial, missing the mini boom in the rest of the world driven by AI. Non-US AI-related equities offer opportunities.
Non-US AI-related equities LONG
Systematic inflation makes bonds poor investments
Going forward, we are likely to end up with systematic inflation rather than the deflation of the late 19th century. As a result, being a bond investor is not going to be a good place to be because interest rates will constantly be spiking up.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
HIGH
21:44
Jun 21
Jun 21
Monetary Matters
2mo
NVDA 1ST
MSFT 1ST
OPENAI 1ST
ANTHROPIC 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia's inflated sales will crash.
Nvidia's revenue is artificially inflated by circular financing from unprofitable AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The company has set unrealistic expectations, and if its guidance fails to meet market hopes over the next few earnings calls, the stock will fall apart. Nvidia needs a trillion dollars in sales through 2027 to justify the bubble, which is highly unlikely.
NVDA SHORT
Microsoft revenue inflated by OpenAI losses.
Microsoft's cloud revenue is heavily dependent on OpenAI, a deeply unprofitable company that lost $21 billion in 2025. A significant portion of Microsoft's Azure revenue comes from OpenAI spending (including credits and sales and marketing costs), inflating Microsoft's top line. When OpenAI runs out of money, Microsoft faces a material revenue hole.
MSFT SHORT
Avoid OpenAI IPO, massive losses.
OpenAI's financials reveal a $21 billion loss in 2025, bizarre accounting, massive sales and marketing costs that likely hide inference expenses, and no credible path to profitability. When the company goes public, retail investors will be the victims of a hype-driven IPO. Avoid participating.
OPENAI AVOID
Avoid Anthropic IPO, overhyped and unprofitable.
Anthropic suffers from the same broken economics as OpenAI. Its profitability was temporarily engineered through a discount from Elon Musk, its annualized run rate is exaggerated by a flawed calculation, and its cost structure worsens with revenue. An Anthropic IPO would be equally dangerous for public investors.
ANTHROPIC AVOID
S&P 500 companies burdened by AI debt.
The largest companies in the S&P 500 have entered into hundreds of billions of dollars in lease commitments for AI data centers that lack real demand and will produce massive costs. As the AI bubble pops, these balance-sheet burdens will hurt the index, making it a short.
SPY SHORT
Broadcom backstops risky Anthropic deal.
Broadcom is backstopping a $30 billion chunk of a $35 billion deal that funds Anthropic's compute via Google. If Anthropic, an unprofitable company, fails to pay, Broadcom will be on the hook. The circular financing structure is foolish and exposes Broadcom to significant credit risk.
AVGO SHORT
Amazon and Google clouds exposed to Anthropic.
Amazon and Google have massive remaining performance obligations from Anthropic (and indirectly OpenAI), which are used to justify their cloud buildouts. Since Anthropic is unprofitable and its revenue is overstated, these obligations are at risk of not being fulfilled, threatening the hyperscalers' revenue growth and balance sheets.
AMZN SHORT
GOOGL SHORT
HIGH
21:15
Jun 20
Jun 20
Monetary Matters
2mo
META 1ST
NVDA 1ST
MU 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Meta AI strategy unsound, bearish
Meta's AI strategy does not make sense to him. He is a bear on the stock, though not actively short it, because he sees the AI misallocation as a risk to the business.
META AVOID
Nvidia remains top pick
Nvidia is the name he is most excited about right now. Despite bubble risks, its dominance and earnings power make it a strong long. He has had success in semiconductor call options and sees Nvidia as the standout opportunity.
NVDA LONG
Memory peak prolonged, multiples too cheap
Memory stocks trade at 6-7x forward earnings because the market expects a sharp memory price decline within 6-9 months. That downturn is unlikely because supply is physically capped: semiconductor equipment makers cannot grow shipments more than 30% per year, and memory producers are older, cautious, and underinvested. The AI-driven storage explosion (reasoning models, agents, context windows) has pushed memory prices up 4-5x, and they are still rising 30% quarter-on-quarter, supporting peak earnings for longer than the market believes.
MU LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Broad semiconductors remain attractive
Broad semiconductor exposure offers value on the long side as AI capex drives earnings. Even if it is a bubble, being outright short semiconductors is too risky because technological booms often last longer than expected. He still likes the sector and expects the boom to continue for at least a year or longer.
SMH LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 18
Jun 18
Monetary Matters
2mo
TIMKEN.BO 1ST
Parker Hannifin
Terex 1ST
Bel Fuse
CEG 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short-cycle industrial equipment recovery is starting.
After a three-year manufacturing recession and the longest ISM PMI contraction on record, US manufacturing has just entered recovery. The destocking headwind is over, tariffs are now manageable, and interest rates are likely to move lower. This creates a powerful cyclical upswing for short-cycle industrial equipment companies that supply the inside of factories—ball bearings, pneumatics, pumps, filters, fasteners, and automation. These businesses have used the downturn to become leaner and are trading on trough earnings and trough multiples, while secular reshoring provides an additional demand tailwind. The opportunity is in basic US industrial champions that have been off the radar for years.
TIMKEN.BO LONG
Parker Hannifin LONG
FAST LONG
IR LONG
AIT LONG
GTES LONG
Terex is a hidden humanoid robotics play.
Terex is the largest investor in Apptronik, a leading humanoid robotics developer, making it a unique way to invest in the coming humanoid automation wave. Additionally, Terex's core industrial equipment businesses benefit from reshoring and factory buildouts.
Terex LONG
Bel Fuse taps industrial electrification growth.
Bel Fuse makes power protection and connection equipment, originally for defense but now increasingly serving the industrial sector. As electrification demand spreads, Bel Fuse is finding new markets for its products, positioning it for significant growth.
Bel Fuse LONG
Avoid overvalued merchant utilities.
Merchant utilities like Constellation, Vistra, and Talen traded at Nvidia-like multiples last year but have since crashed. They lack new data center announcements and are overvalued compared to regulated utilities that offer the same electrons at much lower multiples with longer-duration earnings visibility. Investors should avoid them.
CEG AVOID
VST AVOID
TLN AVOID
Caterpillar earnings could double by 2029.
Caterpillar is now firing on all three cylinders—construction equipment, resource industries, and power/energy—for the first time in years. With manufacturing recovery driving all divisions, Caterpillar could double its earnings from roughly $20 per share today to $40 by 2029, underpinned by well-managed operations and a strong service network.
CAT LONG
Regulated utilities offer durable double-digit returns.
Regulated utilities are signing large-load customers to 15-year contracts, locking in 8–9% EPS growth and 3–4% dividend yield for a 12–13% total return with extended visibility. NextEra Energy is the go-to power developer for Google, and its acquisition of Dominion gives it access to the power-constrained PJM market, improving its growth profile further.
NEE LONG
Electrification theme is a long-duration opportunity.
Electrification is a multi-decade secular theme driven by manufacturing reshoring, data center buildout, transportation electrification, and electrification of everything. After 25 years of grid underinvestment, the US grid is the biggest pinch point, and the investment opportunity has a long duration. The Tema electrification fund (VOLT) captures this theme through equipment and utility stocks.
VOLT LONG
Eaton dominates electrification with huge growth.
Eaton is the largest maker of electrical equipment, covering everything from the grid down to the chip inside a data center. Its data center equipment sales grew 240% last quarter, and it provides a one-stop shop for electrification without the high valuation risk of merchant utilities.
ETN LONG
Powell expands to data centers, earnings surge.
Powell Industries makes critical industrial circuit breakers. Historically serving oil & gas, it has recently expanded into utility and data center markets, announcing a large data center contract last quarter. This new demand could cause its earnings to double or triple over the next few years.
POWL LONG
High-voltage grid buildout benefits Quanta and AEP.
The US needs a mammoth amount of high-voltage transmission reinvestment because the grid is outdated. Quanta Services is virtually the only contractor with its own skilled labor force for high-voltage projects, and American Electric Power has built 85–90% of the nation's high-voltage lines. Both are poised to win huge contracts.
AEP LONG
PWR LONG
HIGH
20:46
Jun 15
Jun 15
Monetary Matters
2mo
SMH 1ST
QQQ 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short NASDAQ and semiconductors on AI risks.
AI has become too powerful, triggering inevitable global regulatory crackdowns that will severely limit the accessible capabilities of frontier models like Claude Mythos. Simultaneously, hyperscaler capex is already slowing in real terms, masked by component inflation and token maxing, which artificially boosted earnings. AI models and inference chips are rapidly commoditizing, turning the current hardware shortage into a compute glut. These forces will cause the AI capex cycle to decelerate sharply. He is short the NASDAQ and semiconductor indices to capture this bearish turn.
SMH SHORT
QQQ SHORT
Long oil on geopolitical supply risks.
The Iran-Israel conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are actively constricting oil supply. Trump’s repeated statements that a deal is imminent signal desperation to Iran, hardening their negotiating stance and prompting them to demand tougher terms. Iran’s bold military actions suggest they feel emboldened. With oil inventories crashing, a prolonged stalemate will drive prices significantly higher. Most scenarios lead to higher oil prices, so he remains long oil.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:45
Jun 10
Jun 10
Monetary Matters
2mo
CORN 1ST
▾
MED
Fertilizer cost pinch tightens corn supply
Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten fertilizer trade, raising input costs for US corn farmers. If fertilizer economics become too difficult, farmers may reduce application or switch crops, tightening corn supply and potentially supporting corn prices. The pinch on the producer side could become a price-supportive supply story on the commodity side.
CORN LONG
MED
13:18
Jun 08
Jun 08
Monetary Matters
2mo
WTI
BNO
USO
▾
HIGH
Oil prices set to spike soon
Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market has lost approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude supply and 20% of clean product flows. Refinery runs have been cut by 9 million barrels per day, but inventories are being drawn down rapidly, especially in the US. Cushing inventories are approaching operational tank bottoms, and US product inventories are at multi-year lows. The market is sleepwalking, but a major price response is inevitable, likely by July, as the physical shortage becomes undeniable.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
WTI to outperform Brent
Cushing, Oklahoma inventories are dropping toward tank bottoms, which will force WTI to narrow versus Brent and slow US crude exports. This relative strength is already occurring and will persist as the physical shortage intensifies.
USO LONG
HIGH
13:05
Jun 06
Jun 06
Monetary Matters
2mo
000660.KS 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
Tua Paint
NTDOY
NICE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory chip bubble due to Chinese supply
South Korean memory chip stocks SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are in a bubble. Profit estimates for 2028 imply they would be the most profitable companies in the world, yet they produce commodities. Chinese competitors are now profitable and will bring new supply from 2027 onwards, making the cycle unsustainable. The current valuation is extremely speculative and not prudent to enter.
000660.KS AVOID
005930.KS AVOID
Tua Paint cheap Thai paint stock
Tua Paint is a paint company in Thailand trading at 8 times PE with growth potential. The housing market is weak near term, but longer-term the cheap valuation and market position make it an attractive value play.
Tua Paint LONG
Nintendo oversold despite near-term headwinds
Nintendo stock has fallen nearly 50% due to memory price headwinds and a weak 2026 game slate. However, sentiment is overly pessimistic; the Switch 2 is a strong console, and a strong 2027 lineup (Zelda movie, potential 3D Mario) should drive a recovery. The risk/reward is favorable at current levels.
NTDOY WATCH
Nice Information Service cheap credit score monopoly
Nice Information Service is the dominant credit score provider in South Korea, with a stable growing earnings stream (low double-digit growth), a single-digit PE ratio (~9-10), and a dividend yield of 5-6%. It trades at a third of FICO's multiple despite similar economics. Corporate governance improvements and insider buying support the stock.
NICE LONG
Fairfax India cheap airport infrastructure play
Fairfax India Holdings owns an airport in Bangalore. It trades at attractive multiples (11 times PE, 8% yield) and provides exposure to Indian infrastructure at a discount. The holding company structure offers a play on India's growth with a margin of safety.
FFXDF LONG
HIGH
15:10
May 31
May 31
Monetary Matters
2mo
TIP 1ST
TLT 1ST
IEF 1ST
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy TIPS for inflation protection
Inflation will be higher in the future due to persistent debt and deficits, so Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) provide built-in inflation protection and make sense as a diversifier in portfolios.
TIP LONG
Buy long bonds at high yields
If commodity supply shocks trigger an economic pullback or recession, long-term bond yields will fall. Buying long-term US Treasuries when yields reach the upper fours (around 4.75-5%) offers a good entry point as a hedge and capital appreciation trade.
TLT LONG
Buy 10-year when yields high
The 10-year Treasury yield has been range-bound between roughly 3.75% and 4.75% due to government intervention and economic constraints. A tactical trade of buying bonds when yields hit the upper end (4.75-5%) and selling when yields fall to the lower end (3.75-4%) can be profitable.
IEF LONG
Commodities have another leg up driven by severe geopolitical supply chain risks (e.g., Strait of Hormuz tensions) and depleted inventories of oil, diesel, fertilizer, and other inputs. The bull case for energy and agricultural commodities is strong even if equity markets ignore it.
DBC LONG
HIGH
16:01
May 26
May 26
Monetary Matters
2mo
San Francisco apartments
Brazil real estate
Sun Belt apartments
INDS 1ST
▾
HIGH
San Francisco apartments are a strong buy.
San Francisco is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI companies occupying office space, a new mayor improving safety and cleanliness, and rents rising over 10% year-over-year. GTIS is buying apartment buildings at 50% off replacement cost, focusing on units with high turnover to capture market rents. The virtuous cycle of job growth, population return, and limited new supply makes San Francisco apartments a compelling investment.
San Francisco apartments LONG
Brazil real estate is attractive long-term.
Brazil's real estate market offers attractive opportunities, particularly in São Paulo office and industrial sectors. The country benefits from commodity exports, a recovering currency, and high-quality buildings in strong demand from multinational tenants. GTIS has built top-tier office towers and is developing a large spec office building pre-leased to a major tenant. The high interest rate environment is a headwind but cash buyers are active.
Brazil real estate LONG
Sun Belt apartments are oversupplied and avoid.
Sun Belt markets like Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, and Phoenix are suffering from severe oversupply of apartments, with concessions such as 3-4 months free rent. The oversupply is taking longer to clear than expected (over 2.5 years in Phoenix), and employment growth is not absorbing units quickly. These markets are unattractive for new investment.
Sun Belt apartments AVOID
US industrial/logistics real estate is bullish.
US industrial and logistics real estate is benefiting from reshoring, near-shoring, and the need for warehouse space near new factories. New supply starts are down 50%, while demand remains solid from just-in-time inventory needs and data center supply chains. GTIS is actively developing warehouses in the Carolinas and Texas, with strong leasing activity.
INDS LONG
HIGH
15:04
May 25
May 25
Monetary Matters
2mo
XLE 1ST
US10Y 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
RGTI 1ST
SMH
▾
HIGH
Buy energy as inflation driver.
Energy is a key driver of PPI inflation; buying energy benefits from that inflation because when the PPI rises, you need to buy the stuff that makes it go up.
XLE LONG
10-year yield to exceed 5%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is likely to exceed 5% due to the inflation environment and the steepening yield curve driven by fiscal and foreign demand dynamics.
US10Y LONG
SK hynix cheap on earnings momentum.
SK hynix, despite a dramatic price surge, is not particularly expensive on a forward price-to-earnings basis, and its momentum is backed by strong earnings, making it a worthwhile hold.
000660.KS LONG
Quantum lacks earnings, avoid.
Quantum computing names like Rigetti Computing have no earnings and no prospects of earnings for years, making them pure speculation and dangerous to buy.
RGTI AVOID
Semis benefit from AI inflation.
AI demand is causing PPI inflation; semiconductors have scarce supply relative to demand (near 100% GPU utilization) and full pricing power, making them beneficiaries of the inflation they create.
SMH LONG
Wolfspeed benefits from power pricing.
Wolfspeed has been the best semiconductor trade over the past month, benefiting from the late-cycle shift where lower-margin power semiconductor names accelerate.
WOLF LONG
US growth resilient, favored allocation.
US growth holds up substantially better than peers because the US is not on the receiving end of the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz, and the strong dollar supports US assets.
SPY LONG
Micron cheap on forward earnings.
Micron, peer to SK hynix, is also still cheap on forward PE and the speaker has been long the stock for a long while, continues to hold it.
MU LONG
India growth accelerating, strong data.
India is the only EM with accelerating growth due to the removal of reciprocal tariffs and ability to buy Russian oil, making it a standout in a strong dollar environment.
INDA LONG
Infineon gains from power semis.
Infineon in Germany is a great example of the power semiconductor space accelerating in the late cycle, as pricing power moves toward lower-margin semiconductor trades.
IFX.DE LONG
HP benefits from semis scarcity.
HP has a strong supply chain and pricing power allowing it to pass on increased semiconductor costs to enterprise consumers, making it a beneficiary of the wafer cannibalization and scarcity in consumer electronics.
HPQ LONG
HIGH
16:42
May 24
May 24
Monetary Matters
3mo
BIZD
▾
MED
Some BDCs are attractive at discount.
Some publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) are trading at a discount to NAV (around 85 cents) and present an attractive risk/reward, especially relative to private credit interval funds still valued at par. He expects increased interest from investors and sees potential opportunity for selective buyers.
BIZD LONG
MED
13:00
May 17
May 17
13:01
May 16
May 16
Monetary Matters
3mo
AIQ 1ST
▾
MED
AI earnings bubble is unsustainable.
The current AI stock bubble is not in price but in unsustainable earnings expectations. The S&P 500 is expected to earn $400 billion, but GDP growth only provides roughly $175 billion in new corporate profits. Over 62% of earnings growth is expected from AI stocks, which is unrealistic given the size of the pie. If AI earnings fall short, AI stocks will decline; if they exceed, the rest of the S&P will suffer. The bubble will eventually pop, but timing is unknown and shorting is dangerous.
AIQ AVOID
MED
17:44
May 15
May 15
Monetary Matters
3mo
WEAT 1ST
EWA 1ST
GLD 1ST
IWM 1ST
SOYB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long corn, wheat, soybeans on fertilizer.
Long corn, wheat, and soybeans as a direct agricultural commodity position. The thesis is driven by fertilizer stress (phosphate from the Strait of Hormuz), rising diesel costs, and potential China demand from a US-China trade deal. Prices have held above the March 2nd war-start low, and further upside is expected.
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
CORN LONG
Long US, short Australia on energy.
Go long US equities and short Australian equities as a relative-value pair trade. The US is an energy surplus nation, while Australia is heavily energy-import dependent and faces additional headwinds from a capital gains tax hike (23% to 40%) and an RBA rate hike. The technical and liquidity setup favors the pair.
EWA SHORT
Short gold on ratio weakness.
Short gold in the trading book. Gold has failed to benefit from the bear steepening in yield curves; the gold-to-30-year bond ratio is making lower highs, suggesting metals are vulnerable. He expects gold to trade sideways or lower, and is short the metal in his active portfolio while holding physical gold separately.
GLD SHORT
Long US stocks, don't sell blow-off.
The US stock market is in a momentum-driven blow-off phase similar to 1999. Fundamentals and liquidity are supportive enough to sustain further upside, with technical targets of S&P 500 at 77,800 and Russell at 30,000. Selling into this momentum is dangerous; investors should remain long and not try to pick a top.
IWM LONG
SPY LONG
Long US, short Europe on energy.
Go long US equities and short European equities as a relative-value pair trade. Europe is energy-dependent and struggling with the price shock from the Iran war, while the US benefits from energy self-sufficiency and strong AI-driven earnings. The trade exploits the divergence in energy exposure.
VGK SHORT
Long ags, short DAX pair trade.
A pair trade of long corn, wheat, soybeans versus short German equities (DAX). The agricultural commodities benefit from fertilizer and energy input stress, while Germany's energy-dependent economy is particularly vulnerable to the price shock. The trade has another 20-30% upside expected.
DAX SHORT
HIGH
19:08
May 13
May 13
Monetary Matters
3mo
Latin America
BTC
KBE 1ST
XLE 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Likes Latin America and banks
Latin America, including its banking sector, offers value-oriented investment opportunities. She prefers this region for its discounted valuations and potential for growth, especially in regulated banking franchises.
Latin America LONG
Still bullish on Bitcoin multi-year
Bitcoin remains a multi-year holding because of its decentralized, permissionless nature and potential as a store of value and working capital for AI agents. The fundamental case is intact despite short-term correlation with tech stocks.
BTC LONG
Likes banks for value
Banks in general are attractive from a value perspective. They offer low multiples and potential for returns as part of a barbell approach alongside growthier assets like Bitcoin and AI.
KBE LONG
Energy as stagflation hedge holds
Energy and commodity producers serve as a strategic hedge against stagflationary shocks such as the Strait of Hormuz closure. They perform well when input costs rise, and current disruptions boost cash flows. She holds the position long-term and does not chase recent gains.
XLE LONG
AI demand drives semiconductor demand
The semiconductor industry benefits from physical bottlenecks in GPU production, memory manufacturing, and foundry capacity. Only a few players control the market, making it a 'picks and shovels' play with high barriers to entry. This structural advantage supports continued outperformance.
SMH LONG
HIGH
13:57
May 12
May 12
17:30
May 10
May 10
Monetary Matters
3mo
PQUS 1ST
PQNT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Pictet ETFs target 1-2% alpha via ML.
Pictet's AI-enhanced ETFs (PQNT and PQUS) use machine learning (gradient boosting on decision trees) on over 400 features to forecast 20-day relative returns. They aim for a beta of 1 to their benchmarks (MSCI EAFE for PQNT, S&P 500 for PQUS) and target 1–2% annual outperformance, functioning as passive replacement products.
PQUS LONG
PQNT LONG
HIGH
14:57
May 06
May 06
Monetary Matters
3mo
SNEX 1ST
MPC 1ST
Marex (MRX)
BKD 1ST
B3SA3 1ST
▾
HIGH
Commodity brokers gain from rising volatility.
Commodity brokers Marex and StoneX are positioned to benefit from both structural and cyclical increases in commodity futures volumes. Volatility from geopolitical events, inflation hedging, and corporate risk management are driving volumes. These are high-quality, tech-enabled businesses with 20-30% ROEs, sticky client relationships, and a long runway as more corporates seek to hedge risks.
SNEX LONG
Marex (MRX) LONG
Refiners are structurally tight and cheap.
Refiners are benefiting from a structural supply-demand imbalance. New refinery construction has stalled, existing capacity is running at high utilization, and crack spreads have surged. The market underestimates how tight the market is beyond geopolitical noise. Large PADD 3 refiners like Marathon and Valero trade at a fraction of replacement cost and are using elevated cash flows for buybacks, which will drive shareholder returns. This is a multi-year opportunity until new capacity is announced.
MPC LONG
VLO LONG
Brookdale benefits from demographic supply shortage.
Elder care facilities face a severe supply-demand imbalance. No new senior living facilities have been built since 2017, while the baby boomer population is aging rapidly. Brookdale, the largest operator, has undergone activist-driven management changes and is now improving occupancy. Although the stock may be ahead of itself short term, the multi-year tailwind from demographic demand and no new supply until 2030 makes it a compelling long-term investment.
BKD LONG
Brazil financials benefit from rate cuts and politics.
Latin America, especially Brazil, is undergoing a political shift toward pro-business policies. After years of high real rates crushing equity turnover, the central bank has started cutting rates. This is driving a recovery in equity volumes, benefiting financial infrastructure companies like B3 (the stock exchange) and XP (wealth management platform). The potential for a multi-year pickup in IPOs and privatization adds further upside.
B3SA3 LONG
XP LONG
HIGH
16:37
May 04
May 04
Monetary Matters
3mo
BNO
SMH
SPY 1ST
XLE 1ST
IGV
▾
HIGH
Strait of Hormuz closure creates huge oil deficit
Oil prices are expected to rise further due to the 10 million barrel-per-day deficit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Managed demand destruction only delays the crisis, and inventory draws are accelerating. The safest way to play this is through August Brent crude.
BNO LONG
Long semi, short software captures AI divergence
The spread between semiconductors and software represents the market's belief in AI. Until software's role in the AI ecosystem is settled, being long semiconductors and short software captures the compute-demand upside while hedging disruption risk. The Mythos model and GPU scarcity validate this trade.
SMH LONG
IGV SHORT
Unprecedented AI-driven earnings boom supports stocks
The stock market (S&P 500) is supported by an unprecedented earnings boom driven by AI capex, fiscal stimulus, and a resilient economy. Earnings estimates are rising vertically, and the AI revolution is powerful enough to override the oil crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
SPY LONG
Energy equities as portfolio diversifier and hedge
Energy equities are structurally overweight as a portfolio diversifier. They have negative correlation to equities and act as a risk dampener, similar to bonds. This positioning has helped the RAA fund through recent volatility.
XLE LONG
HIGH
22:19
May 02
May 02
Monetary Matters
3mo
Japan Energy Stocks
COST 1ST
Taiwanese Utilities
0316.HK 1ST
0857.HK 1ST
▾
MED
Japan energy stocks attractive long
Japan energy stocks have good trend, above-average valuation, strong sentiment, and above-average quality, making them a fertile ground for long-side alpha hunting.
Japan Energy Stocks LONG
Costco sentiment positive, not priced
Costco has strong positive sentiment that is not priced into the stock, making it a long opportunity within the high-intangible stock universe.
COST LONG
Taiwan utilities poor, short opportunity
Taiwanese utility stocks have bad sentiment, bad quality, bad trend, and are expensive, indicating a fertile area for short-side alpha hunting.
Taiwanese Utilities SHORT
Orient sentiment negative, not priced
Orient Overseas (Orient HK) has downward sentiment shifts from shipping challenges in Asia that are not reflected in the stock price, signaling a short opportunity with eventual downside pressure.
0316.HK SHORT
Petrochina sentiment up, not priced
Petrochina has experienced strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, creating a long opportunity.
0857.HK LONG
Southwest bear case not priced in
Southwest Airlines (LUV) has a clear bear case and negative sentiment that is not yet priced into the stock, with further downside expected.
LUV SHORT
BP sentiment up, not priced in
BP has seen strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, presenting a long opportunity.
BP LONG
MRNA sentiment positive, not priced
Moderna (MRNA) has strong positive sentiment that is not priced into the stock, making it a long opportunity within the high-intangible stock universe.
MRNA LONG
Northrop sentiment up, not priced
Northrop Grumman (NOC) has strong positive sentiment upward that is not priced in, making it a long opportunity in the defense space.
NOC LONG
BAE sentiment positive, not priced in
BAE Systems has experienced strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, creating a long opportunity due to market dislocation from the Iran war.
BAESY LONG
Amazon sentiment negative, not priced
Amazon has seen negative sentiment shifts that are not reflected in its average returns, creating a short opportunity as negative sentiment is not priced in.
AMZN SHORT
MED
03:00
May 01
May 01
Monetary Matters
3mo
DBC 1ST
Crude Oil (Brent)
BA 1ST
RTX 1ST
GD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Protracted war keeps oil elevated.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade will be protracted because there is no military solution and Iran is willing to endure economic pain. This will keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. The December 2026 Brent crude oil futures contract is making new highs, indicating the market does not expect a quick resolution. Jim Bianco recommends long oil positions via DBC (Deutsche Bank commodity index ETF), USO, or direct crude oil futures.
DBC LONG
Crude Oil (Brent) LONG
USO LONG
Defense stocks underperform due to drones.
Prime defense stocks such as Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, and RTX are underperforming because 21st century warfare is shifting towards asymmetric drone warfare, making expensive conventional platforms less effective. The market is recognizing this and the stocks have been declining since late February.
BA AVOID
RTX AVOID
GD AVOID
LMT AVOID
HIGH
13:15
Apr 30
Apr 30
Monetary Matters
3mo
MSOS 1ST
IGV 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
US cannabis can rise 400%
U.S. cannabis companies are massively undervalued due to regulatory overhang, but the DEA has begun accepting applications for licenses under full descheduling, which will eliminate the 280E tax burden, enable interstate commerce, and unlock economies of scale. This could lead to a 400% move in the sector over a couple of years. The MSOS ETF is a direct way to play this.
MSOS LONG
Software stocks are deeply undervalued
Software stocks have been indiscriminately sold off 70-80% as the market panics over AI disruption. Many of these companies have real recurring free cash flow, are adopting AI within their ecosystems, and trade at very low multiples (half of S&P 500). The negative sentiment will shift, and the stocks should recover significantly.
IGV LONG
Oil stocks are attractively priced
Oil stocks are not reflecting the likelihood of prolonged higher oil prices because everyone assumes the Middle East blockade will end soon. Sentiment is overly bearish on oil, creating a buying opportunity in oil companies. The stocks are cheap relative to the potential for sustained elevated oil prices.
XLE LONG
HIGH
10:30
Apr 29
Apr 29
Monetary Matters
3mo
VIAV 1ST
LITE 1ST
URA 1ST
SOXX 1ST
CIEN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Optical networking benefiting from AI capex
Optical networking companies are experiencing a step-function increase in demand driven by AI data center buildout. The boom is unprecedented, and valuations were attractive at entry. Names like Ciena (CIEN), Viavi (VIAV), and Lumentum (LITE) have seen massive gains. The idea was identified via a manager co-invest and has been the best performer.
VIAV LONG
LITE LONG
CIEN LONG
Uranium miners benefit from nuclear demand
Nuclear power demand is rising due to AI data center power needs and restarts of plants like Three Mile Island. This directly benefits uranium miners. Old Farm has a co-invest focus on uranium miners that has performed well.
URA LONG
Semi cap equipment from memory fabs
Semiconductor capital equipment companies are poised to benefit from the construction of new memory fabs and ongoing AI demand. Old Farm is working on a strategy focused on semicap equipment.
SOXX LONG
US power and infrastructure grid spending
The US grid is aging, and electrification, onshoring of industrial production, and AI data center power demand are creating a mega infrastructure spending cycle. Old Farm owns power and infrastructure assets to capture this trend.
PUI LONG
HIGH
18:05
Apr 26
Apr 26
Monetary Matters
3mo
Software Loans (Broadly Syndicated)
HYG 1ST
ARCC 1ST
PSBD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Software loan selloff is overblown opportunity.
The selloff in software loans within the broadly syndicated loan market due to AI disruption fears is overblown. The true risk of disintermediation is considerably lower because software systems are deeply embedded with high switching costs. Large borrowers in this space have better management and capital market access, making the risk-reward attractive at current discounted prices.
Software Loans (Broadly Syndicated) LONG
High yield is unattractive due tight spreads.
The high yield bond market is currently unattractive because spreads are very tight relative to overall credit risk and have not widened meaningfully despite macro volatility. The market's credit quality has improved to mostly double-B, but yields are not compelling enough to warrant investment.
HYG AVOID
Aries is a strong BDC.
Aries Management (ARCC) is a well-run BDC with a long track record and strong management team. It is a respected player in the space and would be a top pick among public BDCs if not for his own firm.
ARCC LONG
PSBD discount is unwarranted and attractive.
Palmer Square BDC (PSBD) trades at a deep discount to net asset value despite high transparency from monthly NAV reporting, tradable underlying assets, and strong credit quality in large borrowers. Historically, such discounts have been excellent entry points for public BDCs. The firm is actively buying back shares, which is accretive at current levels, and the discount should converge over time.
PSBD LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 19
Apr 19
Monetary Matters
4mo
SPT 1ST
IWM 1ST
XMTR 1ST
RELY 1ST
WISE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sprout Social has 100% upside from API moat and mispricing.
Sprout Social is an enterprise social media management platform with privileged API access to major social networks, a difficult-to-replicate moat due to legal and security complexities post-Cambridge Analytica. The market prices it for bankruptcy at 0.5x EV/sales (down from a $6-7B enterprise value), but the underlying business is stable with guided 8-10% revenue growth and a critical utility role for enterprises in social media management. Not much has to go right for a double.
SPT LONG
Bullish on mispriced small-cap SaaS with adaptation moats.
The market has disproportionately sold off smaller-cap SaaS companies on fears of AI disruption, but many have the DNA to adapt, have real-world integrations, enterprise-grade security, and privileged API access that create moats. The broad sell-off based solely on size misses nuance, and as companies make credible adjustments in the agentic layer and show sustained revenue growth, a repricing will occur.
IWM LONG
Xometry is high-growth digital manufacturing marketplace play.
Xometry is a digital manufacturing marketplace that connects fragmented buyers and suppliers for custom, non-contract manufacturing parts. It is in early innings with 20-30% growth, a huge TAM, and is successfully breaking into enterprise by integrating with procurement systems. It has scaled to customers spending over $10M annually, disproving short thesis concerns, and has strong incremental margins.
XMTR LONG
Remitly undervalued due to migrant segment misunderstanding.
Remitly is laser-focused on remittances and financial services for migrant populations, a distinct segment from Wise. It is undervalued at ~2.5x sales despite strong growth and profitability scaling. Fears around migrant policy and stablecoins are overblown as its business is based on legal migrants and fiat currency needs, and demographic trends (low fertility in developed nations) support long-term migrant flows.
RELY LONG
Wise is a generational company with large TAM.
Wise is a generational company with a large market opportunity beyond remittances into broader financial services for developed markets and businesses. It has a different customer segmentation and infrastructure than Remitly, and its growth profile remains strong.
WISE LONG
HIGH
16:25
Apr 18
Apr 18
Monetary Matters
4mo
PMT
RKLB
FBC 1ST
GOLD
NLY
▾
HIGH
Watch mortgage stocks for rate fall.
We were starting to nibble at some mortgage stocks when everyone was waiting for rates to fall. I think rates will fall, and big players like PennyMac and Rocket will present good value, though preferred stock may offer better value.
PMT WATCH
RKLB WATCH
Long Flagstar due to CFO-led turnaround.
I bought Flagstar very cheap because I think Lee Smith, the CFO, is going to turn that situation around.
FBC LONG
Long gold and silver on monetary and supply factors.
I have been buying gold and silver aggressively. Gold is a monetary trade driven by global central bank demand and will appreciate as the dollar depreciates due to U.S. debt and deficit concerns. Silver faces an acute shortage of deliverable supply due to industrial demand, making both metals an asymmetrical trade with little downside.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Long Annaly preferred for income.
I own Annaly preferred stock as part of my income-focused strategy to maximize yield on fiat assets.
NLY LONG
HIGH
19:50
Apr 15
Apr 15
13:04
Apr 14
Apr 14
Monetary Matters
4mo
ABNB
IWM
YOU
FWRG
Z
▾
HIGH
Bullish on Airbnb's growth and experiences.
Airbnb is reaccelerating growth, has big events this year, and its experiences tab is resonating. It is building a super app within travel and also owns HotelTonight. The company is benefiting from the experience economy and has the ability to spin up new products quickly.
ABNB WATCH
Bullish on small and mid-cap stocks.
Valuation gaps between small/mid-caps and large caps have created a massive dislocation, and with strong tax refunds offsetting oil price impacts, the consumer is in fine shape, making smaller caps attractive.
IWM WATCH
Bullish on Clear Secure due to travel.
Clear Secure is an identity platform benefiting from strong consumer travel trends (TSA throughput at record highs) and is expanding into enterprise, making it more than just an airport business.
YOU WATCH
Bullish on First Watch restaurant chain.
First Watch is a fast-growing restaurant chain that is comping positive in a concerned consumer environment, skews affluent (benefiting from K-shaped economy), and is executing well despite valuation pressure.
FWRG WATCH
Bullish on Zillow's multiple revenue streams.
Zillow has multiple revenue streams (lead generation, rentals, mortgage, payments) and is a top internet asset with high traffic but undervalued. It is growing mid-teens even in a flat housing market and is using AI to enhance its offerings. The rental business is growing quickly, and the company is expanding margins.
Z WATCH
Watching AI chip stocks for correction.
The AI chip and ecosystem companies (like Nvidia, AMD, ARM, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are transformative but may be overvalued in the short term. Waiting for a better entry point after a potential correction and more clarity on which companies are actually winning.
AMD WATCH
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
META WATCH
MSFT WATCH
ARM WATCH
NVDA WATCH
Bullish on Block due to acceleration and AI.
Block has refocused its business, flattened the organization, and is infusing AI. Its multiple businesses (Square, Cash App, Afterpay) are accelerating, showing operating leverage, and it has a strong cash position. The stock is cheap at low teens multiple, and inflation helps point-of-sale providers.
XYZ WATCH
Bullish on Blackstone due to valuation.
Blackstone's valuation has compressed dramatically, presenting an opportunistic buy in the asset management space. The firm is a leader in private equity, private debt, and real estate, and the current valuation does not reflect its long-term prospects.
BX WATCH
Bullish on Zoom as a platform company.
Zoom has transitioned from a single product to a platform (Zoom Phone, contact center, team chat) with a strong balance sheet (cash, no debt) and a valuable stake in Anthropic. Growth is accelerating, and it is winning in Office 365 accounts. Valuation is attractive at low teens free cash flow multiple.
ZM WATCH
Bullish on Omnicell due to refresh cycle.
Omnicell is a duopoly in medication management with a 10-year refresh cycle for its medication robot cabinets. It has sole source contracts, is moving towards recurring revenue, and is benefiting from automation in healthcare to reduce costs, errors, and waste.
OMCL WATCH
HIGH
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