Why Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis | Luke Gromen

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 28, 2026 at 13:52  |  1:08:19  |  Monetary Matters
Speakers
Luke Gromen — Founder, Forest for the Trees

Summary

Luke Gromen explains the structural forces driving a global bond crisis, including boomer entitlements, veterans benefits, and defense spending. He argues that yield curve control and dollar devaluation are inevitable, making gold the primary safe haven. He warns of an AI tech bubble threatened by Chinese competition and outlines why long-term bonds should be avoided, while positioning for gold, eventual Bitcoin dip-buying, and buying equity dips once the Fed intervenes.

  • Off-balance sheet liabilities (boomers, veterans) are forcing the US into a permanent inflationary spiral.
  • Global defense spending turns creditor nations into bond sellers, pushing yields structurally higher.
  • The US cannot sustain positive real yields; yield curve control or dollar devaluation is the only way out.
  • Gold is the best duration asset and will reprice much higher as central banks, especially China, accumulate.
  • The AI/tech bubble faces serious competition from China, likely causing a selloff that forces a Fed backstop.
  • Bitcoin should be bought on a correction when the Fed is about to inject liquidity.
  • Long-term Treasuries are a real bubble and should be avoided in favor of gold.
  • Equity dips should be bought in dollar terms because the Fed will always step in to prevent a fiscal crisis.
Ideas
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 12:55
Gold to surge on dollar devaluation.
Global off-balance sheet liabilities (boomer entitlements, veterans benefits) and defense spending are driving a structural inflationary spiral. The US government cannot afford positive real yields and will eventually devalue the dollar, forcing central banks and investors to buy gold. China's massive gold accumulation signals that gold, not bonds, is the true safe haven. Gold will continue to rally in dollar terms as the dollar is debased.
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 51:53
Buy S&P 500 dips, Fed will backstop.
Any significant equity market selloff will ultimately be met with Fed or Treasury intervention because the US fiscal situation cannot tolerate a sustained downturn. In dollar terms, stocks will recover and go higher, driven by liquidity injections. Therefore, buying the dip in S&P 500 is a winning strategy despite near-term risks from AI and trade wars.
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 54:46
Buy Bitcoin after equity selloff and Fed backstop.
Bitcoin will likely sell off alongside tech in a risk-off event, but when the AI/tech bubble bursts and the Fed is forced to backstop equity markets, Bitcoin will rally sharply. He wants to accumulate Bitcoin on that dip when Fed intervention is imminent. Not an immediate buy; wait for the correction and the policy response signal.
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 65:44
Avoid long-term Treasuries, own gold instead.
The supply-demand imbalance for US long-term bonds is unresolvable without yield curve control or massive dollar devaluation. Entitlement and defense spending make sustained high real rates impossible. Governments will choose to inflate away the debt, crushing real returns for bondholders. Long-term bonds are a real bubble and should be avoided.
Up Next

This Monetary Matters video, published July 28, 2026, features Luke Gromen discussing GLD, SPY, BTC, U.S. 10-Year Treasury, U.S. 30-Year Treasury. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Luke Gromen  · Tickers: GLD, SPY, BTC, U.S. 10-Year Treasury, U.S. 30-Year Treasury