Amazon and Google have massive remaining performance obligations from Anthropic (and indirectly OpenAI), which are used to justify their cloud buildouts. Since Anthropic is unprofitable and its revenue is overstated, these obligations are at risk of not being fulfilled, threatening the hyperscalers' revenue growth and balance sheets.
Broadcom is backstopping a $30 billion chunk of a $35 billion deal that funds Anthropic's compute via Google. If Anthropic, an unprofitable company, fails to pay, Broadcom will be on the hook. The circular financing structure is foolish and exposes Broadcom to significant credit risk.
Amazon and Google have massive remaining performance obligations from Anthropic (and indirectly OpenAI), which are used to justify their cloud buildouts. Since Anthropic is unprofitable and its revenue is overstated, these obligations are at risk of not being fulfilled, threatening the hyperscalers' revenue growth and balance sheets.
Microsoft's cloud revenue is heavily dependent on OpenAI, a deeply unprofitable company that lost $21 billion in 2025. A significant portion of Microsoft's Azure revenue comes from OpenAI spending (including credits and sales and marketing costs), inflating Microsoft's top line. When OpenAI runs out of money, Microsoft faces a material revenue hole.
Nvidia's revenue is artificially inflated by circular financing from unprofitable AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The company has set unrealistic expectations, and if its guidance fails to meet market hopes over the next few earnings calls, the stock will fall apart. Nvidia needs a trillion dollars in sales through 2027 to justify the bubble, which is highly unlikely.
The largest companies in the S&P 500 have entered into hundreds of billions of dollars in lease commitments for AI data centers that lack real demand and will produce massive costs. As the AI bubble pops, these balance-sheet burdens will hurt the index, making it a short.