Earnings Estimates Are Going Vertical on AI Demand | Warren Pies

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 04, 2026 at 16:37  |  1:12:48  |  Monetary Matters
Speakers
Warren Pies — Founder, 3Fourteen Research

Summary

Warren Pies discusses two opposing forces driving markets: the AI-led earnings boom versus the historic oil crisis from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He remains bullish on equities, citing unprecedented earnings estimate increases, and recommends owning oil commodities as a hedge while underweighting bonds. The interview also showcases his AI research tool Caliban.

  • AI frontier models and compute demand are causing an earnings boom, with estimates rising vertically.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a 10 million barrel-per-day oil deficit, but managed demand destruction is delaying a price crisis.
  • Warren Pies is overweight equities (S&P 500) and oil (Brent crude), and underweight fixed income.
  • He recommends a pair trade: long semiconductors, short software to capture the AI divergence.
  • Energy equities are held as structural portfolio diversifiers with negative correlation to stocks.
  • The AI tool Caliban is now publicly available and provides institutional-grade charting and data sourcing.
Trade Ideas
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 5:09
Unprecedented AI-driven earnings boom supports stocks
The stock market (S&P 500) is supported by an unprecedented earnings boom driven by AI capex, fiscal stimulus, and a resilient economy. Earnings estimates are rising vertically, and the AI revolution is powerful enough to override the oil crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
SPY HIGH
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 23:28
Long semi, short software captures AI divergence
The spread between semiconductors and software represents the market's belief in AI. Until software's role in the AI ecosystem is settled, being long semiconductors and short software captures the compute-demand upside while hedging disruption risk. The Mythos model and GPU scarcity validate this trade.
SMH HIGH
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 23:28
Long semi, short software captures AI divergence
The spread between semiconductors and software represents the market's belief in AI. Until software's role in the AI ecosystem is settled, being long semiconductors and short software captures the compute-demand upside while hedging disruption risk. The Mythos model and GPU scarcity validate this trade.
IGV HIGH
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 51:56
Strait of Hormuz closure creates huge oil deficit
Oil prices are expected to rise further due to the 10 million barrel-per-day deficit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Managed demand destruction only delays the crisis, and inventory draws are accelerating. The safest way to play this is through August Brent crude.
BNO HIGH
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 55:40
Underweight fixed income to fund equities and oil
Fixed income (bonds) is underweight in the portfolio to fund the overweight positions in equities and oil commodities. Bonds are unattractive given the current macro environment and are not serving as a hedge.
Fixed Income (Bonds) HIGH
Warren Pies Founder, 3Fourteen Research 63:28
Energy equities as portfolio diversifier and hedge
Energy equities are structurally overweight as a portfolio diversifier. They have negative correlation to equities and act as a risk dampener, similar to bonds. This positioning has helped the RAA fund through recent volatility.
XLE MED
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This Monetary Matters video, published May 04, 2026, features Warren Pies discussing SPY, SMH, IGV, BNO, Fixed Income (Bonds), XLE. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Warren Pies  · Tickers: SPY, SMH, IGV, BNO, Fixed Income (Bonds), XLE