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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
11 eval.
-2.1%
L -2.1%
S -
Win rate
18%
30 days
11 eval.
+3.1%
L +3.1%
S -
Win rate
36%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Energy
$125.90
-
Speaker states the market faces a 10 million barrel/day shortfall, and even in the "best case scenario," the global market will lose 600 million barrels of inventory. This unprecedented inventory draw, exacerbated by the conflict, will create severe physical shortages and drive prices higher. He explicitly states oil will reach $150/barrel if the situation lasts weeks. The scale of the impending supply deficit is historically large and not yet priced in, creating a clear bullish setup for crude oil prices. A rapid and peaceful resolution to the conflict that immediately restores full supply flows.
Mar 27
Long
Macro
$90.82
-
"When we downgraded stocks a few weeks ago we upgraded bonds. And this was really the big reason... Overnight rates market is slowly pushing more cuts into the cycle... ultimately drags the ten year down." AI adoption is acting as a deflationary force by hollowing out white-collar labor and slowing hiring. A softer labor market forces the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively and for longer (into 2027) to support the economy. Lower yields equal higher bond prices. LONG government duration as a hedge against AI-driven labor weakness and disinflation. AI adoption leads to a productivity boom that accelerates growth and inflation (Doomsday scenario vs. Productivity boom), causing yields to spike.
Feb 27
Long
Macro
$97.99
-
"When we downgraded stocks a few weeks ago we upgraded bonds. And this was really the big reason... Overnight rates market is slowly pushing more cuts into the cycle... ultimately drags the ten year down." AI adoption is acting as a deflationary force by hollowing out white-collar labor and slowing hiring. A softer labor market forces the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively and for longer (into 2027) to support the economy. Lower yields equal higher bond prices. LONG government duration as a hedge against AI-driven labor weakness and disinflation. AI adoption leads to a productivity boom that accelerates growth and inflation (Doomsday scenario vs. Productivity boom), causing yields to spike.
Feb 27
Long
Other
$63.26
-
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
Feb 10
Long
Energy
$78.03
-
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
Feb 10
Long
AI/Semi
$188.54
-
Pies notes that Hyperscalers are ramping capex to nearly $700 billion in 2026. He states, "Hardware semis needs to be bid... compute is the thing that everyone is scrambling for." While software (SaaS) faces an existential threat from AI coding capabilities, the physical infrastructure required to run that AI (chips/hardware) is seeing unprecedented demand. The massive capex spend must flow directly into the revenues of semiconductor and hardware manufacturers. LONG. The "industrial revolution" of AI requires physical compute, making hardware the primary beneficiary of the capex boom. If hyperscalers suddenly cut capex due to lack of ROI, the hardware sector would collapse.
Feb 10
Long
AI/Semi
$213.57
-
Pies notes that Hyperscalers are ramping capex to nearly $700 billion in 2026. He states, "Hardware semis needs to be bid... compute is the thing that everyone is scrambling for." While software (SaaS) faces an existential threat from AI coding capabilities, the physical infrastructure required to run that AI (chips/hardware) is seeing unprecedented demand. The massive capex spend must flow directly into the revenues of semiconductor and hardware manufacturers. LONG. The "industrial revolution" of AI requires physical compute, making hardware the primary beneficiary of the capex boom. If hyperscalers suddenly cut capex due to lack of ROI, the hardware sector would collapse.
Feb 10
Long
AI/Semi
$404.76
-
Pies notes that Hyperscalers are ramping capex to nearly $700 billion in 2026. He states, "Hardware semis needs to be bid... compute is the thing that everyone is scrambling for." While software (SaaS) faces an existential threat from AI coding capabilities, the physical infrastructure required to run that AI (chips/hardware) is seeing unprecedented demand. The massive capex spend must flow directly into the revenues of semiconductor and hardware manufacturers. LONG. The "industrial revolution" of AI requires physical compute, making hardware the primary beneficiary of the capex boom. If hyperscalers suddenly cut capex due to lack of ROI, the hardware sector would collapse.
Feb 10
Long
Macro
$462.40
-
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$73.41
-
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$36.33
-
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
Feb 10
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