AI Trade "Dead Money" For Now - But Macro Overall Is "Pretty Risk-On" For Stocks | Tian Yang

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 02, 2026 at 22:35  |  1:05:42  |  Monetary Matters
Speakers
Tian Yang — CEO, Variant Perception

Summary

Tian Yang of Variant Perception discusses a broadly risk-on macro environment favoring US equities, while warning that the AI and semiconductor trade may be dead money medium-term. He advocates rotating into value sectors like energy, financials, and healthcare, and highlights tactical opportunities in SONIA futures, Latin American equities, and Chinese tech. He also details the VPX ETF as a systematic alternative to the S&P 500 and shares views on gold, metals, and geopolitical risks.

  • Macro models signal risk-on for US equities with broadening breadth over next 3-6 months.
  • AI/semiconductor stocks are in a dead-money phase; tactical buy after crash but medium-term caution.
  • Capital is rotating to value laggards: energy (refiners), financials, and healthcare.
  • Long SONIA futures is the cleanest trade, betting on a less hawkish Bank of England.
  • Latin America equities are preferred; Europe and India are avoided due to structural headwinds.
  • Chinese tech/AI offers tactical upside driven by LPPL buy signals, while Chinese consumer remains under pressure.
  • Gold has found a floor and serves as a portfolio hedge; metals benefit from geopolitical shocks.
  • VPX ETF uses capital cycle, quality, and crowding models to outperform the S&P 500.
Ideas
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 0:00
AI trade dead money for now
AI and semiconductor trade is in a dead-money phase, similar to Bitcoin and gold after their tops; the agentic AI narrative is exhausted, and until a new narrative emerges, prices will likely move sideways without crashing.
SMH HIGH
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 0:31
Macro risk-on supports US equities
Macro risk indicators (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity) remain broadly supportive for equities over the next 3-6 months, with equity market broadening out and average stocks making higher highs, confirming a risk-on regime.
SPY HIGH
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 2:50
Buy energy, financials, healthcare sectors
Capital is rotating into value laggards as part of the risk-on broadening; the portfolio is adding energy (with refiners benefiting from wide crack spreads), financials, and healthcare to balance secular growth exposure.
XLE XLV XLF HIGH
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 4:00
Tactical long Chinese tech and AI
Chinese tech and AI stocks offer tactical trading opportunities following LPPL exhaustion buy signals in June and rotation from Korea, with China's strength in open-weight AI models supporting its tech sector.
Chinese AI stocks KWEB MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 8:02
Long SONIA futures, BoE less hawkish
The cleanest trade is long SONIA futures, betting that the Bank of England will be less hawkish due to high rates but significant downside risks to UK growth and inflation.
SONIA HIGH
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 8:36
Buy tech and semis after crash
After the sharp correction in tech and semiconductor names, the fund is tactically buying back into these sectors for a bounce, while still maintaining a value barbell.
XLK MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 32:33
Avoid Chinese consumer stocks
Chinese consumer equities should be avoided until a major revaluation of the renminbi or a shift in policy, as domestic demand remains weak and household wealth is depressed by falling real estate prices.
Chinese consumer equities MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 46:32
Latin America equities preferred region
Latin American equities are the preferred region, benefiting from the geopolitical landscape where the US uses carrots rather than sticks, unlike India which gets caught between US and China.
ILF MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 46:45
Avoid European equities, energy crisis
European equities are unattractive due to exposure to energy crisis, heavy regulation, and competition from cheap Chinese exports; the region faces structural headwinds.
VGK MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 47:42
Avoid India equities, geopolitical headwinds
India is vulnerable as a middle power between China and the US; the US is not supportive of India's manufacturing rise, and high food inflation limits RBI's ability to ease policy.
Indian equities MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 59:13
Gold floor, hold as portfolio hedge
Gold has likely found a floor after its meme-driven correction; it serves as a stagflation hedge and is preferred over nominal bonds in a multi-asset portfolio, though a catalyst for rally is still absent.
GLD MED
Tian Yang CEO, Variant Perception 60:58
Buy VPX ETF alternative to S&P
VPX ETF is a systematic long-only US equity strategy that uses capital cycle, quality, and crowding models with factor timing to outperform the S&P 500 with better upside/downside capture; it is positioned in energy, financials, and recently adding tech.
VPX MED
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This Monetary Matters video, published August 02, 2026, features Tian Yang discussing SMH, SPY, XLE, XLV, XLF, Chinese AI stocks, KWEB, SONIA, XLK, Chinese consumer equities, ILF, VGK, Indian equities, GLD, VPX. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tian Yang  · Tickers: SMH, SPY, XLE, XLV, XLF, Chinese AI stocks, KWEB, SONIA, XLK, Chinese consumer equities, ILF, VGK, Indian equities, GLD, VPX