CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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Top Calls
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12:17
Jul 20
Jul 20
Energy prices poised to spike higher
Diesel and jet fuel spreads are at record highs, reflecting physical market tightness and depleted inventories. With no clear de-escalation path in the US-Iran conflict, energy prices are at significant risk of moving much higher to destroy demand, tightening markets further.
HIGH
13:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
Diesel shortage will spike prices.
Diesel fuel supplies are tight and prices are up 30% since January, and they will not fall back. Refined product shortages are coming, potentially leading to rationing by the November elections. Diesel is the critical fuel for transportation, agriculture, and the economy, and this will drive double-digit inflation. Being long diesel is a bet on these dynamics.
HIGH
20:01
Jul 17
Jul 17
US refiners benefit from tight product markets
Refined products face a tight supply situation with reduced refinery utilization, demand holding up, and no buffer stocks. US refiners are running flat out at 96% utilization, crack spreads are high, and this strength is expected to persist at least until late fall, keeping gasoline around $4 and diesel $5. Even if Hormuz flows resume, the Russia constraints add another tightening screw, preventing a quick reversion.
HIGH
13:00
Jul 11
Jul 11
Oil, diesel prices to rise further.
US oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, the Iran war has destroyed any incentive for peace and will force Gulf states to build pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; refineries will not be repaired while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. Diesel is up 30% YTD and ripples through every part of the economy, demand remains strong, Asia refiners prioritize domestic needs, and California faces potential rationing. Oil and refined product prices will go higher into the fall.
HIGH
21:08
Jul 09
Jul 09
Diesel elevated despite falling crude
Diesel prices are likely to stay elevated even as crude oil falls because Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining capacity have left a million and a half extra barrels of unrefined crude entering global markets, creating a tight refined product market and a divergence in prices.
MED
21:00
Jul 07
Jul 07
Gasoline and jet fuel stay costly.
Refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel remain sticky and elevated, continuing to pressure markets and consumers, and the tightness in these products is separate from the moves in crude oil.
MED
19:58
Jul 07
Jul 07
Buy US refiners, diesel prices surging.
Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed over 1 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity, tightening global diesel supply while crude oil remains in a mini glut. US refiners are benefiting from historically high refined product margins, with diesel trading at twice the price of crude. The refining sector is the best place to invest right now, and diesel prices are set to stay elevated.
HIGH
19:48
Jul 07
Jul 07
Buy US refiners for record margins
US refiners are the best place to park investment money because refining margins are at historic highs, global refining capacity is severely constrained, and upcoming earnings will be spectacular, making them the prime beneficiary of the product tightness.
HIGH
17:05
Jul 07
Jul 07
Refined products sticky, crude recovers fast.
Refined product prices like jet fuel and gasoline remain sticky, bedeviling markets and consumers, while crude oil recovers faster than expected.
LOW
20:07
Jul 06
Jul 06
Refining capacity shortage keeps fuel prices high.
Gasoline and diesel prices are much higher than crude oil prices would indicate because there is not enough refining capacity to process the crude. Prices for these refined products cannot come down until either the logistical bottlenecks are resolved or new refining capacity comes online, which is not imminent.
MED
18:59
Jun 25
Jun 25
Bullish refined products on supply damage
Refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) face constrained supply due to damaged Gulf refinery capacity, while demand is likely to rebound faster than supply, creating a near-term tightening in product markets.
MED
15:01
Jun 15
Jun 15
Refining margins remain a great investment spot
Crack spreads and refinery profit margins should maintain themselves even as crude prices readjust, making the refining sector a great place to be from an investment standpoint.
MED
15:55
Jun 09
Jun 09
Oil products elevated on Hormuz disruption.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 12.8 million barrels per day of crude oil, nearly 20% of global supply, causing a massive bottleneck that has pushed US retail gasoline to multi-year highs above $4.63 per gallon and European jet fuel crack spreads to records with jet fuel over $200 per barrel. Relief depends on geopolitical de-escalation; until crude and product flows stabilize, oil and refined product prices are expected to remain elevated, making summer travel expensive.
MED
17:12
Jun 07
Jun 07
Jet fuel prices declining to normal.
Jet fuel prices are declining from elevated levels, as indicated by futures moving down and discounting occurring, suggesting a normalizing trend back to pre-conflict levels.
MED
11:30
Jun 03
Jun 03
Long oil refiners for pricing power
Oil refiners have strong pricing power due to inelastic demand for refined products and the ability to set prices if they have crude supply. This gives them incredible profit margins, making them a good hedge in a portfolio when other sectors suffer from the Middle East tensions.
HIGH
13:16
May 29
May 29
Gasoline/diesel prices risk higher.
U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are at very low levels (diesel at lowest since 2003), refineries are running near maximum utilization, and seasonal demand is about to rise. This combination creates risk of shortages and upward pressure on prices for both gasoline and diesel in the United States.
HIGH
13:59
May 06
May 06
Diesel inventories are critically low.
Diesel inventories in the US are 11% below the five-year average, and Middle East crude is rich in diesel, making diesel particularly vulnerable to shortages as supply disruptions continue, which will push diesel prices higher.
MED
06:42
May 05
May 05
US energy plays benefit from discount feedstock.
US refiners benefit from rising global refinery spreads while sourcing feedstock at a discount due to abundant onshore crude, making US energy plays attractive in the short term from the supply and price shock.
HIGH
09:42
Apr 27
Apr 27
Long oil refiners for pricing power.
In a stagflation environment, oil refiners have incredible pricing power on refined products (jet fuel, diesel) due to scarcity of supply from the Strait closure and inventory rebuild needs.
HIGH
15:21
Apr 23
Apr 23
Diesel to outperform crude oil.
Diesel prices are rising faster than crude oil due to supply disruptions of heavy crude from the Strait of Hormuz, a harsh winter drawing heating oil inventories lower, and strong global trucking, shipping, and military consumption. This divergence is expected to persist even if crude pulls back, implying diesel will remain elevated relative to crude.
HIGH
13:18
Apr 23
Apr 23
Expect higher jet fuel all year.
Bob Jordan expects jet fuel prices to remain higher for the remainder of the year, impacting airline costs but the company plans accordingly using the forward curve and focusing on cost control.
HIGH
13:21
Apr 22
Apr 22
Jet fuel scarcity imminent.
Jet fuel is becoming scarce in a matter of weeks due to the blockade, implying potential price increases and supply constraints.
MED
18:45
Apr 20
Apr 20
Diesel and jet fuel shortages pose economic risk.
The price of diesel and jet fuel is at all-time highs due to the closed Strait of Hormuz, and Europe is weeks away from running out of jet fuel. This will lead to rationing, price hikes, and inflation as the economic impact filters through to consumers via transported goods and travel, representing an economic 'sword of Damocles' hanging over the current market rally.
MED
12:00
Apr 18
Apr 18
War boosts energy commodity prices.
The war in Iran is putting pressure on global energy markets, leading to inflationary pressures and higher prices for jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, and petrochemicals.
HIGH
21:21
Apr 17
Apr 17
Elevated commodities benefit energy sectors.
With the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen, commodities such as global gas and diesel prices will remain elevated, which benefits midstream players, integrated oil companies, and US refiners due to their exposure to these commodity prices.
MED
20:11
Apr 17
Apr 17
Diesel and jet fuel shortages to drive prices up.
Acute shortages in diesel and jet fuel are inevitable, starting in Asia and spreading to Europe and the US, leading to inventory draws and price spikes, with jet fuel particularly at risk and Europe potentially running out in weeks.
HIGH
19:52
Apr 17
Apr 17
Diesel and jet fuel shortages to drive prices higher.
The blockade has caused a disruption in product flows, leading to imminent shortages of diesel and jet fuel in Asia, which will then spread to Europe. This will result in significant inventory draws and price spikes for these refined products, as demand destruction is already occurring in Asia.
HIGH
12:23
Apr 17
Apr 17
Jet fuel shortage will keep prices high.
Jet fuel is the most exposed product to Middle East disruptions because European imports rely heavily on the Middle East, there is no inventory buffer, and demand destruction is slow due to airlines pre-selling tickets, leading to sky-high prices and risk of stock outs and flight cancellations.
HIGH
06:27
Apr 16
Apr 16
Energy prices to remain high due to supply disruptions.
Supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure are causing destruction in the supply of oil, jet fuel, LNG, and fertilizer, which will keep pressure on energy markets and derivatives, keeping prices elevated.
MED
20:03
Apr 15
Apr 15
Diesel prices will stay elevated due to supply and demand.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have choked off Middle East exports of heavy crude, which yields more diesel and jet fuel. Combined with strong demand from heating (chemically the same as diesel), trucking, shipping, and military consumption, diesel prices are rising faster than crude and are expected to stay elevated even if crude pulls back.
HIGH
About CRAK Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks CRAK (VanEck Oil Refiners ETF) across 6 sources. 26 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 26 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (76%). 34 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 3 bullish. Latest voices: Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chris Whalen, Rebecca Babin.