Ellen Wald

Gasoline and diesel prices are much higher than crude oil prices would indicate because there is not enough refining capacity to process the crude. Prices for these refined products cannot come down until either the logistical bottlenecks are resolved or new refining capacity comes online, which is not imminent.

Gasoline and diesel prices are much higher than crude oil prices would indicate because there is not enough refining capacity to process the crude. Prices for these refined products cannot come down until either the logistical bottlenecks are resolved or new refining capacity comes online, which is not imminent.

Oil inventories have been drawn down at an accelerated rate due to the conflict, but paper prices have not reflected this physical tightness. Once the market reprices, crude should spike higher. The disconnect between paper and physical is unsustainable.

"Tanker rates are sky high... not just crude oil, but also products are major things that are going through the Strait." When shipping routes are disrupted or deemed dangerous, freight rates explode due to insurance premiums and scarcity of willing vessels. Tanker companies (Crude: FRO/DHT, Products: STNG) generate outsized free cash flow during these rate spikes. Long tanker stocks to capitalize on the surge in day rates. If the Strait closes completely (0% flow), volume drops to zero regardless of rates.

"Tanker rates are sky high... not just crude oil, but also products are major things that are going through the Strait." When shipping routes are disrupted or deemed dangerous, freight rates explode due to insurance premiums and scarcity of willing vessels. Tanker companies (Crude: FRO/DHT, Products: STNG) generate outsized free cash flow during these rate spikes. Long tanker stocks to capitalize on the surge in day rates. If the Strait closes completely (0% flow), volume drops to zero regardless of rates.

"Qatar has shut down its LNG plants and they're a major supplier to Asia... looking for big spikes [in natural gas prices]." Qatar is a top global LNG exporter. If their supply is offline, global prices rise (benefiting the commodity UNG) and buyers must pivot to US exporters like Cheniere Energy (LNG) to fill the void. Long US Natural Gas and US LNG infrastructure. Warmer than expected weather in Europe/Asia reducing demand.

"Tanker rates are sky high... not just crude oil, but also products are major things that are going through the Strait." When shipping routes are disrupted or deemed dangerous, freight rates explode due to insurance premiums and scarcity of willing vessels. Tanker companies (Crude: FRO/DHT, Products: STNG) generate outsized free cash flow during these rate spikes. Long tanker stocks to capitalize on the surge in day rates. If the Strait closes completely (0% flow), volume drops to zero regardless of rates.

"Qatar has shut down its LNG plants and they're a major supplier to Asia... looking for big spikes [in natural gas prices]." Qatar is a top global LNG exporter. If their supply is offline, global prices rise (benefiting the commodity UNG) and buyers must pivot to US exporters like Cheniere Energy (LNG) to fill the void. Long US Natural Gas and US LNG infrastructure. Warmer than expected weather in Europe/Asia reducing demand.