Summary
The episode covers SpaceX's record IPO plans, the US proposing new 10% tariffs on major trading partners, and escalating Middle East tensions with US-Iran missile exchanges. Patrick Armstrong presents three actionable ideas: long Micron on AI-driven earnings growth, short US airlines due to jet fuel spike risk, and long oil refiners for pricing power.
- SpaceX plans to set IPO terms as soon as Wednesday, aiming to raise $75 billion at $135 per share.
- The US proposes at least 10% tariffs on imports from 16 major trading partners under forced-labor investigations.
- IMF growth forecasts are revised down amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainties.
- US-Iran ceasefire talks face strain after missile strikes damage Kuwait's airport and threaten the Strait of Hormuz.
- Patrick Armstrong recommends going long Micron as AI capex drives earnings growth without multiple expansion.
- He is actively short US airlines expecting refined product price spikes from Middle East tensions.
- He is long oil refiners for their pricing power and inelastic demand in a tight supply environment.
- The BOJ governor signals need for further rate hikes, while the BOE and Fed face conflicting inflation signals.