Oil market is 'shooting first and asking questions later', says TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 17, 2026 at 21:21  |  5:02  |  CNBC
Speakers
Jason Gabelman — Co-founder, Blockworks

Summary

TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman analyzes the oil market's reaction to the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy infrastructure. He expects medium-term oil prices to reset higher due to geopolitical risk and supply constraints, and recommends specific energy stocks that benefit from elevated commodity prices and sector dynamics. The discussion covers scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the timeline for restoring oil production.

  • Oil prices dropped sharply due to war news, but market may be overreacting.
  • Strait of Hormuz closure affects oil transit, with uncertain timeline for reopening.
  • Medium-term oil price expectations should be reset higher due to conflict premium and supply constraints.
  • Elevated global gas and diesel prices benefit midstream players, integrated oils, and US refiners.
  • TOTALENERGIES is favored for its strong returns, growth, and power business.
  • Marathon Petroleum recommended for exposure to strong West Coast refining cracks.
  • Cheniere liked for its exposure to global gas dynamics.
  • Energy equities may have near-term downside but medium-term upside.
Trade Ideas
Jason Gabelman Co-founder, Blockworks 2:44
Elevated commodities benefit energy sectors.
With the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen, commodities such as global gas and diesel prices will remain elevated, which benefits midstream players, integrated oil companies, and US refiners due to their exposure to these commodity prices.
AMLP XLE CRAK MED
Jason Gabelman Co-founder, Blockworks 3:59
Oil prices to reset higher medium-term.
Medium-term oil price expectations should be reset higher due to the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East conflict and underlying supply trends such as US shale production plateauing and non-OPEC production slowing, leading to a more balanced to undersupplied market.
WTI HIGH
Jason Gabelman Co-founder, Blockworks 4:21
TOTALENERGIES has strong growth and returns.
TOTALENERGIES is favored due to its best return on capital employed over the past couple of years, highest production growth and free cash flow growth looking forward, and the addition of a power business.
TOTALENERGIES HIGH
Jason Gabelman Co-founder, Blockworks 4:41
MPC benefits from strong West Coast cracks.
Marathon Petroleum is recommended for its exposure to West Coast cracks, which have been extremely strong due to tightness in the Pacific Basin resulting from the Middle East conflict.
MPC HIGH
Jason Gabelman Co-founder, Blockworks 4:55
Cheniere benefits from global gas dynamics.
Cheniere is liked given its exposure to global gas dynamics and the expectation that global gas prices will stay elevated.
CHENIERE HIGH
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This CNBC video, published April 17, 2026, features Jason Gabelman discussing AMLP, XLE, CRAK, WTI, TOTALENERGIES, MPC, CHENIERE. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jason Gabelman  · Tickers: AMLP, XLE, CRAK, WTI, TOTALENERGIES, MPC, CHENIERE