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Trump Sows Doubt About US Elections | Balance of Power 7/17/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 17, 2026 at 20:01  |  47:57  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ilan Goldenberg — Senior VP and Chief Policy Officer, J Street
Rebecca Babin — Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth
Mark Gurman — Chief Correspondent, Bloomberg News
Michael Shepherd — Tech/Defense Reporter
David Westin — Host, Bloomberg Wall Street Week

Summary

The episode covers escalating US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices up over 4%, with experts projecting elevated crude and strong refining margins. Apple is in DOJ settlement talks, but analyst Mark Gurman remains bullish on the stock amid an upcoming product cycle. China's Moonshot debuts an AI model rivaling OpenAI, raising concerns about the effectiveness of US export controls. Political reactions to Trump's election integrity speech and its implications for US-China relations are discussed, but markets focus on energy and tech.

  • Oil surges as US-Iran strikes expand, Brent above $87, WTI up 4%.
  • Ilan Goldenberg warns oil may stay $80-$100, with potential spike to $200 if Strait of Hormuz disrupted.
  • Rebecca Babin says crude could hit $95-$100 if Houthis or Iran attack energy infrastructure.
  • Refiners running flat out, crack spreads high; gasoline near $4, diesel $5, strength seen lasting into fall.
  • Mark Gurman bullish on Apple: DOJ settlement a non-issue, new iPhone, foldable, AI wearables drive optimism.
  • China's Moonshot AI model tops coding benchmarks, intensifying US-China AI rivalry despite export controls.
  • Trump's speech alleging Chinese election meddling casts doubt on US democracy, but markets largely ignore.
  • Semiconductors volatile; Micron and Qualcomm up, Intel down, SOX barely positive.
Ideas
Ilan Goldenberg Senior VP and Chief Policy Officer, J Street 9:56
Crude oil to stay elevated near $80-$100
Oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the $80-$100 per barrel range due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Iran's increased leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and the absorption of market slack. The conflict mirrors the first Iraq War, leaving a wounded but angrier regime, and the new normal of instability and violence will keep prices elevated. There is potential for a spike to $200 if disruptions intensify, but the more likely scenario is sustained $80-$100, which is significantly higher than pre-war levels.
WTI BNO HIGH
Mark Gurman Chief Correspondent, Bloomberg News 16:58
Apple stock bullish on new product cycle
Apple is being rewarded for not overspending on AI and there is optimism around the stock driven by a strong upcoming product portfolio including new iPhones, home devices, AI wearables, and a foldable. The DOJ settlement is not a concern, and higher device prices due to memory chip costs will not deter consumers. The product cycle and AI strategy provide a bullish outlook.
AAPL HIGH
Rebecca Babin Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth 44:01
US refiners benefit from tight product markets
Refined products face a tight supply situation with reduced refinery utilization, demand holding up, and no buffer stocks. US refiners are running flat out at 96% utilization, crack spreads are high, and this strength is expected to persist at least until late fall, keeping gasoline around $4 and diesel $5. Even if Hormuz flows resume, the Russia constraints add another tightening screw, preventing a quick reversion.
CRAK HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 17, 2026, features Ilan Goldenberg, Mark Gurman, Rebecca Babin discussing WTI, BNO, AAPL, CRAK. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ilan Goldenberg, Mark Gurman, Rebecca Babin  · Tickers: WTI, BNO, AAPL, CRAK