US Oil Storage Tanks to Run Empty Around July 4, Currie Says
Speakers
Jeff Currie
— CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group
Summary
Jeff Currie of Carlyle warns that oil storage tanks will run empty in Europe by May and in the US by July 4th due to unprecedented inventory draws. He highlights diesel as particularly vulnerable with inventories 11% below average. Even if the Strait of Hormuz disruption ends, restarting production could take months, ensuring continued fuel shortages.
- Currie predicts Europe hits tank bottoms in May, US around July 4th.
- Current oil deficit is not yet a shortage but inventories are drawing rapidly.
- Diesel inventories in the US are 11% below the five-year average.
- Restarting flows after a Strait of Hormuz resolution would take at least three months.
- The current shock is described as the mirror image of COVID in terms of inventory swings.
- Weekly inventory draws of 25 million barrels are occurring even in the shoulder season.
- Currie identifies distillate, jet fuel, diesel, and LPG as vulnerable fuels.
- Travel and aviation could be impacted by fuel shortages.
Trade Ideas
Crude oil inventories are drawing rapidly.
Oil storage tanks will run empty in Europe around May and in the US around July 4th due to massive inventory draws caused by supply disruptions, with even a resolution of the Strait of Hormuz standoff requiring months to restart flows, leading to persistent shortages and upward price pressure.
Diesel inventories are critically low.
Diesel inventories in the US are 11% below the five-year average, and Middle East crude is rich in diesel, making diesel particularly vulnerable to shortages as supply disruptions continue, which will push diesel prices higher.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 06, 2026, features Jeff Currie discussing WTI, CRAK. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeff Currie · Tickers: WTI, CRAK