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LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
20:00
Jun 02
Jun 02
Wealthion
1d
GLD
BTC
▾
HIGH
Gold in monetary revaluation cycle
Gold is in a monetary revaluation cycle driven by loss of trust in the dollar-based monetary system, de-dollarization, central bank buying, inflation volatility, and geopolitical risk. Relative to monetary aggregates and equity valuations, gold is still reasonably priced, supporting further upside.
GLD LONG
Central banks may buy Bitcoin
It is plausible that central banks will eventually add small strategic Bitcoin positions alongside gold as part of reserve diversification, given the ongoing de-dollarization and loss of trust in fiat currencies.
BTC WATCH
HIGH
20:00
May 28
May 28
Wealthion
6d
Short-term Treasuries (2-year)
TLT 1ST
USO
ACWX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Favor short-term over long-term Treasuries.
The bond market has effectively hiked rates for the Fed through higher yields, creating a stealth tightening that will weigh on the economy. Favor short-term Treasuries (e.g., 2-year) because they carry less duration risk and will perform better if the economy slows. Long-term Treasuries are less attractive as long-term rates are unlikely to rally as much and have more downside risk. With the 2-year yielding near 4%, it competes with money markets and offers a good ballast against equity drawdowns.
Short-term Treasuries (2-year) LONG
TLT AVOID
Oil must fall to avoid recession.
Elevated oil prices are a key macro factor tightening financial conditions. If oil does not come down to around $70-75, recession odds will rise significantly in the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. Oil at current levels is a risk to monitor because it pressures consumers and corporates, and history shows that unemployment often rises after oil doubles.
USO WATCH
Diversify into international equity markets.
The US equity market now represents about 70% of the global equity market, which appears near its limit. Other international equity markets offer better yield and diversification benefits. With US valuations stretched and the potential for a growth shock, it makes sense to ‘shop around the world’ for more attractive equity exposure outside the US.
ACWX LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 27
May 27
Wealthion
7d
TLT 1ST
US 30-Year TIPS
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
30-year Treasuries offer unmatched retirement income.
The 30-year US Treasury bond yielding approximately 5% provides a rare retirement income opportunity, meeting the 4% withdrawal rule without equity risk. The market is mispricing bonds due to passive investing mechanics, not credit concerns. In contrast, forward equity returns are below 2%, making bonds far more attractive. He recommends selling other financial assets (particularly equities) to buy long-term Treasuries, including 30-year TIPS with real yields approaching 3%.
TLT LONG
US 30-Year TIPS LONG
SPY AVOID
HIGH
20:04
May 26
May 26
Wealthion
8d
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold floor at $17,000 from 1970s parallels
Gold's bull market is far from over; price target of $17,000 is a floor based on historical Dow-to-gold ratio parallels with the 1970s. Current environment of energy shocks, sticky inflation, rising deficits, financial repression, and lack of political will to address debt will drive gold dramatically higher as investors seek protection from currency debasement.
GLD LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 22
May 22
Wealthion
12d
IGV 1ST
TIP
AI chip stocks
▾
HIGH
Software stocks threatened by AI replacement.
Software stocks are cratering because AI promises to replace standalone software as a single tool, making the current software stack obsolete; this structural disruption makes them unattractive.
IGV AVOID
TIPS offer attractive real yields.
TIPS and investment-grade bonds offer attractive real yields (around 5% nominal, 2.5-3% real) and principal return at maturity, making them a suitable diversifier for investors expecting 5-7% portfolio returns.
TIP LONG
AI chip stocks likely to continue rally.
The AI tech chips trade is justified by cross-ownership earnings boosts (e.g., Anthropic gains adding 10% to S&P 500 earnings) and the promise of AI replacing expensive software, which could continue to drive upside for AI chip stocks.
AI chip stocks LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 21
May 21
Wealthion
13d
SILVER 1ST
COPPER 1ST
SPY 1ST
TLT 1ST
KOL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy gold and silver long-term.
Currency debasement, central bank gold purchases, and persistent inflation support gold and silver as long-term stores of value. Pullbacks are buying opportunities because the fiscal and monetary landscape remains unchanged.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Long copper for long-term.
Copper benefits from long-term electrification and energy transition demand, though near-term manufacturing weakness may cause volatility. Suitable for a long-term tactical position.
COPPER LONG
Overweight US stocks.
The US market offers the best alignment of management and minority investors, rapid innovation, and dollar strength. Overweight US stocks (S&P 500, NASDAQ) relative to other regions due to superior risk-adjusted returns and lower regulatory risk.
SPY LONG
Avoid long-term government bonds.
Persistent inflation and fiscal profligacy mean long-term sovereign bonds no longer provide a safe haven or hedge; yields will remain elevated due to continued money supply growth and government debt. Investors should avoid long-term bonds as they no longer cushion portfolios during weakness.
TLT AVOID
Consider coal investments.
Despite the green narrative, coal demand remains strong with China and Germany increasing usage. Investors should consider coal as a real asset that is widely ignored.
KOL LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 20
May 20
Wealthion
14d
WTI
TIP FLIP
TLT
▾
HIGH
Oil prices will rise from supply deficit.
Crude oil prices will rise significantly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a supply deficit of about 13 million barrels per day, with inventories being drawn down and rationing through higher prices inevitable within weeks.
WTI LONG
TIPS are attractive inflation hedges.
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer attractive real yields of 2.5-3% above inflation, providing a safe diversifier in a 5-7% return portfolio and a hedge against rising inflation.
TIP LONG
Treasury yields will rise, bonds fall.
US Treasury bond yields will continue to move higher as inflation persists and the Fed remains reluctant to cut rates, making nominal bonds unattractive as prices fall.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
20:00
May 19
May 19
Wealthion
15d
WTI
GLD
VIX
▾
HIGH
Crude oil expected lower
Crude oil is peaking around $100/barrel but the forward curve shows backwardation, with December crude at $81. The US is a net exporter with low break-even costs (~$55/barrel), so high prices will encourage supply and destroy demand. McGlone expects prices to fall significantly, possibly to $50, and sees a potential Trump administration pushing for lower energy prices before midterms.
WTI SHORT
Gold likely peaked, avoid
Gold has reached extreme valuation levels relative to Treasuries, moving averages, and other commodities. After a massive rally, gold volatility is unusually high compared to the S&P 500, a warning sign. McGlone expects years of underperformance and advises lightening up positions. He explicitly says gold has peaked and that buying here is risky.
GLD AVOID
Stock volatility likely to increase
Stock market volatility is too low relative to the spikes seen in gold and crude oil. Historically, such divergences lead to a rise in equity volatility. McGlone makes this a key theme for the year and anticipates a pickup in volatility, which would be negative for risk assets.
VIX WATCH
HIGH
20:00
May 15
May 15
Wealthion
19d
SPY
GLD 1ST
Korea/Taiwan equities
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equity risk premium is zero
U.S. equities (S&P 500) are unattractive because the equity risk premium is zero when compared to long-term Treasury real yields. Investors are effectively assuming equities are riskless, which is irrational. He is not buying this market and advises caution.
SPY AVOID
Central banks buying gold, supply deficit
Gold is in a secular bull market driven by central bank buying as they diversify reserves away from the dollar. Supply is limited (~1-1.5% annual growth) while demand is rising, and mean reversion of gold's share in FX reserves from 30% toward historical 70% supports a price target of $6,000 and beyond.
GLD LONG
Asia equities have positive risk premium
Asian equities (specifically Korea and Taiwan) offer a positive equity risk premium, unlike the U.S. market. They are tied to the AI chip supply chain but are not as overvalued, making them a better place for equity exposure.
Korea/Taiwan equities LONG
Long bonds offer same yield, less risk
Long-term U.S. Treasuries are attractive because the real yield (2.7%) matches the equity market's real yield, but bonds offer certainty of payment and principal, making them a better risk-adjusted choice. Recession risks are high and inflation will likely decline, providing a cushion for bonds.
TLT LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 14
May 14
Wealthion
20d
SPY 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid overvalued, concentrated stock market.
We are living through one of the top three investment manias in history. The US stock market is extremely overvalued by multiple metrics (CAPE, Buffett indicator, price-to-sales), and concentration is unprecedented with the top 10 companies commanding over 40% of the S&P 500. Household equity exposure is at a record 72% of financial assets, and baby boomers are dangerously overexposed. This complacency and imbalance make a bear market likely and necessary to restore sanity. Investors should reduce equity exposure and avoid the S&P 500.
SPY AVOID
Gold as hedge against market complacency.
Given the extreme complacency and overvaluation in the equity market, which feels like a tinderbox, investors should hedge by owning gold. Gold is like life insurance—you buy it hoping not to need it, but it protects against the severe downside of a potential bear market. The current market conditions warrant a meaningful allocation to gold as a diversification and risk-off asset.
GLD LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 13
May 13
Wealthion
21d
AMZN
COPPER
ETN
ROP 1ST
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Amazon provides diversified AI exposure.
Amazon benefits from AI through its cloud business and investment in Anthropic. It has a diversified revenue stream and is safer than pure-play AI companies, though it is spending all free cash flow on capex.
AMZN LONG
Copper prices can reach $8-10.
Copper is in shortage due to electrification and AI buildout. Prices could easily rise to $8-10 per pound over the next couple of years because new supply is hard to bring online.
COPPER LONG
Eaton benefits from electrification trend.
Eaton is a strong US-based company providing electrical components for data centers and is a beneficiary of electrification and AI.
ETN LONG
Roper is an oversold software value.
Roper Technologies is a software company that has been oversold. It provides specialized software for verticals (autism centers, daycare) and will use AI to enhance its products, not be displaced.
ROP LONG
Silver has structural supply deficit.
Silver is in structural shortfall and is strategic for AI/data center buildout. Prices could easily double from $80 given supply deficits. He favors buying silver producers that generate strong cash flow at $50-70 silver.
SILVER LONG
Gold protects against currency debasement.
Gold is a hedge against monetary instability and currency debasement driven by massive global debt and money printing. As central banks are forced to print more money, gold will appreciate relative to paper assets.
GLD LONG
Nickel demand rising, supply tight.
Nickel is a key commodity needed for electrification and AI infrastructure. Supply is short and demand is increasing, making it a beneficiary of the commodity supercycle.
NICKEL LONG
Commodity supercycle is underway.
We are in a commodity supercycle driven by three factors: massive AI/data center capital spending, aging population requiring robotics/AI for productivity, and global debt crisis leading to currency debasement. This will push up prices across the commodity complex.
DBC LONG
Berkshire is a low-risk cash-rich holding.
Berkshire Hathaway offers a low-risk way to own a portfolio of great businesses plus a massive cash pile that provides optionality. It's better than money market funds or bond funds, and he recommends buying and holding it for the next few years.
BRK.B LONG
Insurance stocks are deeply undervalued.
Insurance stocks are widely disliked and trade at 6-8 times earnings with high double-digit returns on equity. He buys disciplined insurers that protect book value and compound returns, expecting them to re-rate when the cycle turns.
KIE LONG
Google is a safer AI play.
Google (Alphabet) is a diversified AI beneficiary with less volatility than pure-play AI companies. He holds a smaller position as a safer way to participate in AI.
GOOGL LONG
Apple participates in AI indirectly.
Apple is being pulled into the AI space, but is not spending on the bleeding edge. It remains a core holding that benefits from the broader tech trend.
AAPL LONG
Schneider Electric benefits from AI buildout.
Schneider Electric (Snyder) supplies electrical components for data centers and electrification. It trades at a lower valuation than Eaton and is a strong way to play the AI infrastructure buildout.
SU.PA LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 12
May 12
Wealthion
22d
GDX 1ST
COPPER 1ST
SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold miners undervalued, set to outperform gold.
Gold mining equities are underowned by Western investors at historically low allocations (<0.5% vs. 2-3% historically) and undervalued relative to the gold price. As Western investors return to the space, gold miners should outperform the metal, closing the valuation gap. He personally holds 95% of his net worth in gold, underscoring conviction.
GDX LONG
Copper supply deficit, prices must rise.
Copper demand is surging from data centers, EVs, renewables, and grid electrification, but new supply is extremely constrained (20+ years from discovery to production). Current copper price (~$6/lb) is insufficient to incentivize the needed investment, so prices must rise significantly to balance the market. This creates a strong long-term bullish outlook for copper.
COPPER LONG
Seabridge Gold trades at 10% NAV.
Seabridge Gold (ticker: SA) is deeply undervalued at roughly 10% of its net asset value (~$33B NAV vs. $3B market cap). The company owns the world's largest undeveloped gold project (KSM) with 200M+ ounces of gold and 600 lbs of copper per share. With a joint venture partner secured, the stock should re-rate upward as the project moves toward production. Additionally, David Einhorn is a large shareholder, endorsing the optionality thesis that NPVs understate long-life deposits.
SA LONG
HIGH
21:00
May 11
May 11
Wealthion
23d
GLD
CNY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold secular bull to $6000-$7000.
Gold is in a secular bull market, driven by China's dominance in commodities, monetary inflation from accelerating money supply, and the commodity super cycle. The peak is projected at $6,000 to $7,000 per ounce.
GLD LONG
Yuan undervalued, will appreciate.
The Chinese yuan is significantly undervalued and will appreciate as China's trade surplus, high savings, and strategic positioning lead to currency gains. Investors in China will also benefit from a currency pop.
CNY LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 08
May 08
Wealthion
26d
GLD
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Buy gold at $3600, silver at $40
Gold and silver are in a long-term super cycle uptrend but short-term mixed signals. The market is likely to correct to shake out euphoric buyers, with gold targeting $3,600 and silver $40 before resuming the uptrend to $8,800 gold and $175 silver. Investors should wait for a correction to these lower levels to buy physical bullion for a multi-year rally.
GLD WATCH
SILVER WATCH
HIGH
20:00
May 07
May 07
20:00
May 06
May 06
Wealthion
28d
MSFT 1ST
TLT 1ST
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
XLE 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscalers are in an AI bubble.
The AI boom is a bubble similar to the dot-com era. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) are showing rapidly declining free cash flow despite rising earnings, and massive depreciation charges from data-center buildouts will crush reported earnings when revenue growth fails to materialize.
MSFT AVOID
10-year yields could break above 5%.
The bond market is vulnerable to a sharp rise in long-term yields. Commodity prices are surging, which historically leads Treasury yields by ~6 months. The 10-year yield could easily break above 5%, triggering volatility in stocks and a potential recession.
TLT SHORT
TIPS hedge inflation; own them now.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) provide direct inflation protection and should be owned as part of a real-asset allocation in a secular inflationary environment.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) LONG
Oil undervalued vs gold; energy stocks long.
Energy stocks and oil are dramatically undervalued relative to gold, with underinvestment in production creating structural supply shortages. The capital cycle favors energy as commodity demand rises from AI and reshoring.
XLE LONG
Gold leads inflation; favor over financial assets.
Gold is a leading indicator for inflation and commodity prices. In a secular inflationary era driven by deglobalization, debt, and underinvestment, gold and precious metals should outperform financial assets.
GLD LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 05
May 05
Wealthion
29d
CLCH.TO 1ST
SKPL 1ST
ASPI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Clinch Resources: undervalued met coal play.
Metallurgical coal is essential for steel production, which is needed for defense, energy transition, and infrastructure. Supply is structurally constrained due to ESG stigma, regulatory hurdles (e.g., Canada's 40% tax), and long lead times for new mines. Clinch Resources (CLCH CN) trades at about 2x EBITDA versus 5-6x for peers, owns high-quality West Virginia met coal on the US critical minerals list, and stands to benefit from rising demand and supply tightness.
CLCH.TO LONG
SKPL: largest tungsten asset in Kazakhstan.
Tungsten is critical for aerospace, munitions, and photovoltaics. China controls about 75% of global supply and has imposed export controls, driving tungsten prices up 8-10x. SKPL is the shell company acquiring CAS Resources, which will be the largest new tungsten asset globally, located in Kazakhstan. The structural supply-demand imbalance supports higher-for-longer tungsten prices.
SKPL LONG
ASP Isotopes: helium asset with high NPV.
Helium is irreplaceable for MRI cooling, semiconductor fabrication, quantum computing, and rocketry. About one-third of global supply vanished after Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan plant. Prices have more than doubled. ASP Isotopes has acquired a major new helium asset in South Africa (Free State) with an estimated NPV north of $3 billion versus a ~$600 million market cap, offering a relatively pure-play helium exposure.
ASPI LONG
HIGH
20:00
May 01
May 01
Wealthion
1mo
WTI 1ST
SPY
XOP
GLD
XLE FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid oil due to volatility.
Oil is too volatile and dangerous to trade. He steers clear despite believing it could stay elevated.
WTI AVOID
Bullish on S&P and NASDAQ.
Equities are in a new uptrend with strong money flows. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ could rally another 6-7% or more. He is long and following the trend.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Bullish on energy stocks.
Energy stocks (XOP, XLE) are in an uptrend with huge volume and a supportive oil price. He is long XOP and sees further upside.
XOP LONG
XLE LONG
Wait for gold correction to buy.
Gold is in a long-term bull super cycle but short-term trends are down. He expects a correction to around $3,600 before the next leg up to $8,800. He is waiting for the correction to buy.
GLD WATCH
Semiconductors have massive long-term upside.
Semiconductors are in a sweet spot as suppliers to AI buildout. The sector has massive momentum and could double or triple over several years, despite short-term overbought conditions.
SMH LONG
Silver: wait for correction to buy.
Silver has a similar setup to gold: long-term target $175, but short-term correction likely to $40. He is waiting for the correction to re-enter.
SILVER WATCH
Avoid bonds; risk of collapse.
Bonds (TLT) are crowded long and at risk of a sharp collapse if yields spike toward 8%. He warns that the chart pattern is bearish for bond prices.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Apr 30
Apr 30
Wealthion
1mo
BP
SHELL
BB
▾
MED
Europe energy shift benefits BP and Shell.
Peter Tchir argues that Europe is re-prioritizing energy security and independence, which will allow BP and Shell to develop their own resources (e.g., North Sea oil), an opportunity not yet priced into markets, and he owns both.
BP LONG
SHELL LONG
BlackBerry is an AI play.
Peter Tchir sees BlackBerry as increasingly involved in the AI story, and he owns a small position, expecting continued growth in AI across more companies.
BB LONG
MED
20:06
Apr 29
Apr 29
Wealthion
1mo
US bonds
SHY 1ST
SILVER 1ST
SPY 1ST
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
US stocks and bonds are risky.
Traditional US stocks and US bonds face elevated risk due to potential inflation, loss of faith in paper currency, and a breakdown of the historical negative correlation between them. Both asset classes could suffer in a period of higher rates or systemic stress.
US bonds AVOID
SPY AVOID
Short-term Treasuries ensure liquidity.
Short-term Treasuries are preferred for the defensive side of the barbell because they provide liquidity and flexibility to pivot allocations as macro conditions change, without taking on duration risk.
SHY LONG
Gold and silver hedge system collapse.
Gold and silver serve as a store of value outside the traditional financial system, protecting against the unwind of the old world, monetary debasement, and loss of faith in paper currency. They are core long-term portfolio holdings as long as government debt and spending remain unsustainable.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
Copper benefits from AI infrastructure.
Copper is a strategic metal essential for the infrastructure needed for AI, robotics, and electric vehicles. Its demand will rise as the technological revolution accelerates, making it a key hard asset in a barbell portfolio.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
20:00
Apr 28
Apr 28
Wealthion
1mo
ARCC 1ST
MAG7 1ST
IWD 1ST
SPY 1ST
VXUS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Ares Capital is a good buy.
Ares Capital (ARCC) is the largest and one of the most conservative BDCs, extremely diversified (no loan >2% of portfolio), earning its dividend well, and has ample cash reserves. The stock has corrected but remains a good buy with a covered dividend.
ARCC LONG
Magnificent Seven rolling over, avoid.
The Magnificent Seven and other US big tech leaders appear to be rolling over, indicating that the market leadership is losing steam. This suggests further downside risk for these stocks.
MAG7 AVOID
Rotation into value stocks expected.
Value has underperformed growth for five years at extreme levels, and a multi-year rotation into value is likely as money rotates out of overvalued growth stocks. Value stocks should outperform.
IWD LONG
US stocks extremely overvalued, avoid.
The US stock market is at extreme valuation levels on most metrics in history, rivaling 1929, with poor risk-reward due to excessive speculation and rising oil costs pressuring corporate profits. The speaker is meaningfully underweight US equities.
SPY AVOID
Multi-year foreign market outperformance.
Foreign markets (World ex-US) have dramatically outperformed the US last year and continue to do so in 2025. The US vs world ratio remains near 50-year extremes, and historical patterns suggest a multi-year period of foreign outperformance ahead.
VXUS LONG
HIGH
14:01
Apr 28
Apr 28
Wealthion
1mo
COPPER 1ST
▾
MED
Copper critical for national security.
Copper is a critical mineral for national security; the US should increase domestic extraction and smelting to reduce reliance on foreign processing and enhance self-sufficiency. This demand for domestic copper production supports a bullish view on copper prices and related investments.
COPPER LONG
MED
20:30
Apr 24
Apr 24
Wealthion
1mo
Critical Metals
BTC 1ST
COIN 1ST
INTC
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy critical metals for defense.
The US is running out of bombs and has a $200 billion readiness request, making critical metals essential for defense buildup and a buying opportunity.
Critical Metals LONG
Crypto may catch up to rally.
Crypto (Bitcoin, Coinbase) has underperformed in the recent rally relative to semiconductors, creating a potential reload opportunity as regulatory clarity and adoption improve.
BTC LONG
COIN LONG
Intel benefits from chip onshoring.
The US needs to produce its own chips for national security, and Intel is a key beneficiary of this onshoring trend.
INTC LONG
WTI oil long on Iran disruption.
Markets are too complacent about Iran; WTI crude futures are edging higher due to disruption risk, and oil prices are likely to rise further.
WTI LONG
Blackberry AI story has potential.
Blackberry is increasingly involved in the AI story and could benefit from broader AI adoption, though it's a smaller play.
BB LONG
BP and Shell energy security plays.
European energy majors like BP and Shell should be allowed to invest in domestic energy production for security, and he owns them as part of the ProSec theme.
BP LONG
SHELL LONG
HIGH
23:46
Apr 23
Apr 23
20:00
Apr 23
Apr 23
Wealthion
1mo
XLE 1ST
Publicly traded trade schools
▾
MED
Energy stocks are new antifragile assets.
Energy stocks, specifically oil and gas stocks, have become the new anti-fragile asset in portfolios because bonds no longer trade inversely to stocks and thus fail as a hedge. The thesis, originally from Louis Gave, is supported by recent performance where energy stocks held up well when other assets struggled. Ed endorses this view, suggesting investors should allocate to energy stocks for portfolio protection.
XLE LONG
Trade schools are a growing opportunity.
Publicly traded trade schools are a growing opportunity as the value of a four-year college degree is increasingly questioned. Demand for trade school education is surging, and these schools are publicly listed and performing well, making them a direct investment play on the shift away from traditional higher education.
Publicly traded trade schools LONG
MED
20:00
Apr 22
Apr 22
Wealthion
1mo
AAPL
GOLD
GAS 1ST
NOW
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long gold and silver as a hedge against fiat debasement.
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are a hedge against currency debasement and the long-term debt crisis, protecting purchasing power over the next three to five years.
GOLD WATCH
Long commodities due to supply-demand imbalance.
Commodities like copper, silver, uranium, oil, gas, and nickel are critical for technology and face a supply shortfall due to underinvestment, making them more predictable than technology stocks over the next five years.
GAS LONG
WTI WATCH
NICKEL WATCH
URANIUM WATCH
SILVER WATCH
COPPER WATCH
Long ServiceNow as an undervalued AI play.
ServiceNow has been beaten up, trading at half its traditional valuation, but is still growing quickly with backlogs and integrating AI, making it undervalued with negative news priced in.
NOW LONG
Long Amazon due to its business model.
Amazon has a business model they like and they have owned it for many years.
AMZN LONG
Avoid S&P 500 due to overvaluation from passive flows.
The S&P 500 is dominated by a handful of stocks that have become overvalued due to passive flows into index funds, leading to distorted price discovery and investors overpaying.
SPY AVOID
Long Carl Corporation as a consolidator in roofing.
Carl Corporation is a roofing and siding business that is consolidating, with growing square footage, good margins, and cash flow, and has compounded faster than most tech companies over the long term.
CSL WATCH
Avoid consumer discretionary due to financial pressure.
The consumer discretionary sector is unattractive because consumers are under financial pressure from inflation, debt, and a large state, leaving less disposable income.
XLY AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Apr 21
Apr 21
Wealthion
1mo
Gold-Silver Ratio
SIL 1ST
GOLD
GDX 1ST
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Gold-silver ratio will narrow, silver to outperform.
The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow significantly toward its free-market historical level of 10–20 ounces of silver per ounce of gold (from current ~60s), implying silver will outperform gold as both metals rise in a hyperinflationary environment; this provides a relative trade setup to monitor.
Gold-Silver Ratio WATCH
Gold and silver miners have excellent margins and outlook.
Gold and silver miners, especially large producers and royalty companies with existing production, are sitting on their best profit margins in years—rivaling the Magnificent 7—and will benefit directly from higher metal prices; higher prices will also spur capital flows, M&A, and development of non-producing miners and explorers.
SIL LONG
GDX LONG
Hyperinflation path will drive gold and silver much higher.
The U.S. is on the on-ramp to hyperinflation due to runaway government spending, monetary debasement, and the Fed's mandate to finance deficits and protect banks, which will drive gold and silver prices significantly higher; he explicitly forecasts gold rising by thousands of dollars and silver into the hundreds of dollars.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
23:25
Apr 20
Apr 20
Wealthion
1mo
USD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short US dollar due to fall risks.
The US dollar is vulnerable to a significant decline due to geopolitical tensions and potential loss of reserve currency status, which would lead to inflationary pressures and economic disruption, akin to Venezuela's hyperinflation scenario.
USD SHORT
HIGH
20:15
Apr 20
Apr 20
Wealthion
1mo
INDA FLIP
EWJ 1ST
EWY 1ST
SPY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Oil-dependent Asian economies are vulnerable.
India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are highly dependent on oil imports and manufacturing, making them worse off than China in a protracted war with sustained high oil prices. Their economies are more vulnerable to an extended energy shock.
INDA AVOID
EWJ AVOID
EWY AVOID
EWT AVOID
War escalation will cause a 7-10% S&P drop.
If the Iran war escalates and oil hits $120, the stock market will drop significantly as the current optimistic pricing of a peace deal shatters. The S&P 500 could fall 7-10%.
SPY NEUTRAL
Higher oil will push bond yields up.
If oil prices rise significantly due to war escalation, bond yields will also rise, making long-dated treasuries unattractive. He is short 30-year Treasuries as a direct position.
TLT NEUTRAL
Stocks down, oil up, Fed frozen is bullish for gold.
The optimal environment for gold is when the stock market is falling due to war fears, oil prices are rising, and the Federal Reserve is politically constrained from raising rates. This combination creates a very bullish setup for gold.
GOLD LONG
Iran war escalation will push Brent oil to $120.
If the Iran conflict escalates because Trump chooses to act within his 60-day War Powers clock, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and Brent crude oil prices will rise to $120. The market is incorrectly pricing a high probability of a peace deal.
BNO NEUTRAL
Europe is toast in either war outcome.
Europe is vulnerable in both scenarios of war escalation (higher oil prices hurt) and US withdrawal (Trump blames Europe and disengages, potentially granting waivers to Russia). The region faces significant economic and political headwinds.
VGK AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Apr 16
Apr 16
Wealthion
1mo
BOIL 1ST
ETH 1ST
SILVER 1ST
DBA 1ST
UNG
▾
HIGH
Buy natural gas ETFs if price closes above 266.
Natural gas is very cheap and doesn't make sense at current prices. If the May contract closes above 266, I would start a position in BOIL or UNNG (leveraged natural gas ETFs). Then if it gaps higher, I would add. I would exit if it takes out the recent lows.
BOIL LONG
UNG LONG
Add to crypto if Bitcoin and Ethereum break out.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a consolidation. If Bitcoin breaks 74-75k and Ethereum breaks 23-2400, then I would add to positions because it would signal mass adoption and that cryptocurrency is here to stay.
ETH LONG
BTC LONG
Buy silver if gold/silver ratio breaks 56.
If the gold/silver ratio breaks down under 56, it would signal a hyperinflation scenario and I would buy silver aggressively. The ratio has been reliable, and silver could trade up to 100.
SILVER LONG
Long DBA with a stop at 2680.
DBA (the agriculture ETF) has held support at 2680 like a rock and is trading over 27. It represents a solid trade in the hard asset space with minor risk. If it breaks 2680, I would get out.
DBA LONG
Long Ethereum via Bit Mine, add on breakout.
We are already long Ethereum through Bit Mine (likely a mining stock or ETF) and have a no-loss stop. We haven't added yet, but if it breaks out, we would add to the position.
BMNR LONG
Buy gold above 5000 or on support at 4600.
Gold is hitting resistance at 5000. If it gets over 5000, then predictions for 6000 are realistic given the debt, dollar, yields, and geopolitics. Alternatively, if it gets another trip down to 4600 and holds, that would be a buying opportunity.
GOLD LONG
HIGH
20:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
Wealthion
1mo
IGV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Trade select resilient SaaS stocks after sell-off.
The SaaS (software-as-a-service) sector has sold off 30-60% since February due to fears that AI agents will reduce the number of paying users (seats), threatening the seat-based SaaS business model. This has created a trading opportunity to go long select SaaS stocks with resilient business models, such as those with proprietary data, vertical integration, mission-critical workflows, and deep industry-specific applications. However, the sector may have been permanently repriced due to lower growth expectations, so this is viewed as a tactical trade, not a long-term investment; a 50% rebound would likely be a selling opportunity.
IGV LONG
HIGH
20:40
Apr 13
Apr 13
Wealthion
1mo
GOLD
GDXJ
GDX
▾
HIGH
Gold will maintain purchasing power as dollar falls.
The US dollar is expected to lose 75% of its purchasing power this decade while gold maintains its purchasing power, leading to a significantly higher nominal gold price for the rest of the decade. This macro view supports being bullish on the physical metal.
GOLD NEUTRAL
Focus on mid-tier single-asset gold producers.
Single-asset gold producers trade at a discount because they are viewed as riskier, but that risk disappears if they are acquired by a multi-asset producer. This creates an easy arbitrage opportunity. Investors should focus on the 'snack bracket' of mid-tier producers that are likely takeover targets.
GDXJ WATCH
Gold stocks undervalued relative to gold price.
Gold deposits in the Abitibi region of Ontario and Quebec are near existing infrastructure like mills, roads, and power, meaning they can be mined and the ore shipped to 'rock-hungry' mills within 15-20 kilometers. This lowers capital costs and makes these deposits highly attractive for acquisition and development.
GDX WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
Wealthion
1mo
XLF 1ST
▾
The speaker states a common client mistake is having an "exaggeratingly large" portion of wealth in a 401(k), which can lead to future RMDs forcing retirees into high (e.g., 40%+) tax brackets, creating a significant tax burden and potential "tax bomb" for heirs. Over-concentration in tax-deferred accounts like 401(k)s defers tax liability but does not eliminate it. In retirement, RMDs are mandatory and taxed as ordinary income, which can be inefficient if tax rates rise or if it forces the retiree/heir into a higher bracket. A singular focus on maximizing 401(k) contributions is an "AVOID" strategy because it creates future tax inefficiency and reduces flexibility. The core thesis is to diversify *account types*, not just investments. Future tax rates could remain stable or decline, reducing the benefit of tax-free accounts. Legislative changes could alter Roth or inheritance rules.
XLF AVOID
long-term
21:30
Apr 07
Apr 07
Wealthion
1mo
XLE
HYG 1ST
XLB
GOLD
▾
Allocated 25% of proceeds from silver sale into oil and gas, with a view to 2028/2029. Cites a global sustaining capital expenditure deficit of ~$1 billion per day as the core structural driver. The oil industry is capital-intensive; prolonged underinvestment leads to production declines. This deficit, combined with declining dollar purchasing power, points to structurally higher nominal oil prices over the coming years. LONG on the oil and gas sector due to a multi-year supply constraint thesis, though cautions that entry points now are less attractive than earlier in the year. A sharp, sustained global economic downturn crushing oil demand, or a political shift leading to a rapid, massive increase in capital investment.
XLE WATCH
long-term
Expresses "biggest fear" is a 2008-style credit contraction stemming from the proliferation of high-yield/junk bond ETFs. Notes these ETFs hold illiquid underlying bonds but trade with high daily liquidity. If negative press on private credit causes retail investors (Moms & Pops) to redeem these ETFs, managers would be forced to sell the illiquid underlying bonds into a non-existent bid, potentially triggering a widespread credit seizure. AVOID due to high systemic risk and the potential for a liquidity mismatch to cause severe contagion. This fear is a primary reason he maintains high personal liquidity. Regulatory intervention or a managed unwind of the ETF structure could mitigate the contagion risk.
HYG AVOID
medium-term
Sold physical silver and rotated the capital into silver mining stocks. Argued that at a ~$75/oz silver price, the stocks were valued as if silver was $45/oz, creating a significant valuation discount. This valuation gap provides a margin of safety. If silver prices rise, stocks will benefit from operating leverage. If silver prices fall or trade sideways, the stocks could still appreciate as their valuations normalize to a higher silver price baseline. LONG on silver mining stocks as a superior risk/reward vehicle compared to physical silver for capturing the next phase of the silver cycle. A severe, sustained downturn in silver prices below the implied valuation level ($45/oz) could erode the margin of safety.
XLB WATCH
medium-term
Stated gold's bull market is intact, comparing recent correction to 25% pullbacks in the 1970s. Says he welcomes low prices as a "sale" and uses corrections to add to his bullion holdings for insurance purposes. The fundamental circumstances driving gold (lack of faith in fiat currency purchasing power, negative real interest rates) have been in place for years and remain unchanged. A weakening economy will likely force the Fed to cut rates and add liquidity, which is negative for the dollar and positive for gold. LONG because gold is viewed as a core savings vehicle and insurance against dollar depreciation, with pullbacks providing strategic accumulation points. A prolonged period of Fed tightening and significant, sustained USD strength could delay the thesis.
GOLD NEUTRAL
long-term
20:00
Apr 06
Apr 06
Wealthion
1mo
XLE 1ST
XLB 1ST
▾
The speaker explicitly points to uranium's 5-year general uptrend, noting that its frequent corrections have presented "interesting entry points for investors." Institutional money is flooding back into commodities, viewing pullbacks as buying opportunities, and uranium is cited as a prime example of this dynamic. The energy minerals sector (with uranium as a key component) is in a sustained bull market where dips should be used to build positions. A reversal in institutional appetite or a failure of the broader commodity bull market thesis.
XLE LONG
long-term
The speaker states there is a need to "increase production of rare earths and copper" and that "gold and silver have their roles in terms of alternatives to paper assets and fiat currencies." These materials are deemed strategically important, facing rising demand from both institutional investors and new government stockpiling programs like Project Vault. Non-energy minerals (including precious and industrial metals) are attractive long-term investments due to structural demand drivers and their role as alternatives to traditional financial assets. A sharp global economic slowdown reducing demand, or a resolution of geopolitical tensions that reduces the urgency for strategic stockpiling.
XLB LONG
long-term
20:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
Wealthion
2mo
GOLD
URANIUM 1ST
▾
The speaker states that China is actively selling U.S. Treasuries with the goal of recycling the capital into physical gold (and other hard assets). China is viewed as opportunistic, buying more aggressively when prices dip. China's long-term strategic goal is to secure supply chains and accumulate hard assets. This creates a persistent, large-scale source of demand that is not based on short-term market sentiment but on national policy. WATCH because, while near-term central bank selling and institutional outflows create headwinds, China's strategic accumulation represents a powerful, structural long-term demand floor and potential catalyst. The price action is currently dominated by tactical de-risking, obscuring this fundamental bid. A prolonged global recession or a significant, sustained strengthening of the U.S. dollar could overwhelm China's incremental demand. A major geopolitical détente between the U.S. and China could also alter this strategy.
GOLD WATCH
long-term
The speaker states uranium "will be one of the winners coming out of this," drawing a direct parallel to the 1970s/80s when energy policy shifted to nuclear post-oil shocks. He notes European leaders have recently admitted their phase-out of nuclear was a "strategic mistake." The current (and recent) energy supply shocks are forcing a fundamental policy rethink towards energy security. Nuclear power, fueled by uranium, provides a dense, reliable energy source not subject to the same just-in-time supply chain vulnerabilities as oil & gas. LONG because the geopolitical environment is catalyzing a durable policy shift that directly increases demand for uranium, replicating a historical pattern. The admission of error by key European policymakers indicates a tangible change in the regulatory and investment landscape. A rapid resolution to global energy supply tensions and a reversion to pre-crisis energy policies could slow the adoption rate. Public opposition and high capital costs for new reactors remain persistent hurdles.
URANIUM LONG
long-term
20:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
Wealthion
2mo
XLK 1ST
GOLD
UNG
TLT 1ST
XLP
▾
The speaker stated he would "fade any notable rally in tech" due to concerns about capex spending, deteriorating cash flows for hyperscalers, and rising construction costs for data centers, which he calls a "multi-year thing." Even if the geopolitical conflict ends, the pre-existing fundamental concerns for the tech/AI trade remain. A slowing global economy would exacerbate cash flow issues and make capital more expensive. The sector faces structural headwinds that make rallies unsustainable, warranting an AVOID stance, especially on strength. A sharper-than-expected decline in interest rates could re-ignite the momentum trade for long-duration tech assets.
XLK AVOID
Medium-term
The speaker stated gold recently showed a day of rallying as a "safety trade" amid broad selling, which told him "the gold sell off was probably closer to the end than the beginning." He is long-term bullish but sees near-term digestion. After a parabolic move and subsequent correction driven by a strong dollar and rising real rates, gold is showing early signs of finding a bottom and regaining its safe-haven特性. The price action suggests a potential near-term low is forming, making it a setup worth monitoring closely, hence WATCH. A continued surge in real interest rates or a major, coordinated foreign sale of gold reserves for liquidity could extend the correction.
GOLD WATCH
Short-term
The speaker stated he has become "more bullish on natural gas" and is "even more bullish on natural gas companies" post-conflict, citing the increased value of U.S. natural gas after attacks on Qatari LNG facilities. Global LNG supply is constrained, and the U.S. is a crucial supplier. He argues U.S. natural gas prices are more likely to catch up to higher global prices than the reverse. The fundamental case for U.S. natural gas has strengthened due to global supply security concerns, supporting a LONG direction. A rapid, sustained resolution to global energy transport routes and a collapse in Asian/European demand could negate the global price arbitrage.
UNG WATCH
Medium-term
The speaker stated he has been "bearish on long-term treasuries" and sees the short end as more attractive. He highlighted risks of foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries to raise capital and that rising global defense spending will put "upward pressure on global bond yields." Structural deficits are increasing (e.g., defense), creating more supply, while a key buyer base (foreign governments) may become net sellers for liquidity needs, pressuring prices. The combination of increased supply and potential demand withdrawal creates a poor risk/reward for long-duration government bonds, warranting an AVOID. A severe global deflationary shock that triggers a flight to safety and forces central banks to enact massive quantitative easing.
TLT AVOID
Long-term
The speaker explicitly said he finds consumer staple stocks "screaming cheap" and has been buying more of them after they were sold off due to fears that higher food prices would hurt lower-income consumers. The market's fear-driven sell-off has created valuation opportunities in stable, non-cyclical companies that may be overly penalized for a transitory pressure on a segment of their consumer base. Valuation dislocation presents a buying opportunity in a defensive sector, warranting a LONG view. A deep, protracted recession that significantly impacts overall consumer spending power, not just lower-income segments.
XLP WATCH
Short-to-medium-term
20:00
Mar 31
Mar 31
Wealthion
2mo
AEM 1ST
WPM 1ST
FNV 1ST
GLD,SLV
ENB 1ST
▾
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
AEM LONG
WPM LONG
FNV LONG
long-term
Wellum explicitly advises owning gold and silver, citing US debt issues and structural problems as key reasons, with numbers showing $63 trillion in deficits plus unfunded liabilities vs. $16 trillion GDP growth (2010-2025). The US fiscal trajectory is "intractable" and necessitates a reset, making precious metals a hedge outside the fiat system; silver also faces supply deficits from industrial demand. LONG for wealth preservation and as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical tensions. Short-term price volatility or unexpected policy interventions that temporarily suppress prices.
GLD,SLV WATCH
long-term
Wellum explicitly mentions Enbridge and TC Energy as companies he looks at, noting they are "massive North American players" making inroads in the US despite Canadian regulatory challenges. These firms benefit from long-term energy demand from safer regions, with attractive cash flow yields and expansion opportunities in the US where economics are more favorable. LONG because they are well-positioned to capitalize on sustained energy needs and supply chain shifts over 3-5 years. Persistent political and regulatory hurdles in Canada could limit growth or increase capital costs.
ENB LONG
long-term
20:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
Wealthion
2mo
SILVER 1ST
GOLD 1ST
▾
The speaker notes silver was up 145% in 2024 and had a massive run in January 2025, indicating strong momentum within the same precious metals bull market driven by the core fundamentals (anti-dollar, deficit, Fed credibility). Silver experienced an even sharper correction (41% peak-to-trough) than gold, which he contextualizes as part of a volatile "blowoff top" and subsequent correction phase, not a breakdown of the bull market. It recovered to $103 by early March. As a leveraged play on the same monetary and anti-fiat fundamentals as gold, and having shown explosive upside, its long-term trajectory remains positive once short-term geopolitical and policy misconceptions clear. A severe, protracted industrial downturn that disproportionately impacts silver's demand, alongside a breakdown in the gold bull thesis.
SILVER LONG
long-term
The speaker states he has followed three core fundamentals for 20 years that have driven gold from ~$250 to $4,000: anti-dollar sentiment, the US deficit, and fading Fed credibility. He argues these fundamentals "really hit inflection points" in late 2024/2025. The recent sell-off is driven by a short-term, mistaken market narrative linking higher oil prices (from the Iran conflict) to expectations of central bank tightening. He contends tightening is impossible given high debt and ongoing Fed liquidity programs (RMPs). The long-term fundamental drivers are stronger than the short-term geopolitical noise and incorrect policy expectations, supporting a long-term bullish view. A sustained, credible shift by the Fed towards aggressive tightening despite high debt levels, which the speaker currently deems impossible.
GOLD LONG
long-term
20:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
Wealthion
2mo
GOLD
▾
The speaker states the gold market is in a structural shift from a niche interest to a mainstream, globally-integrated capital market with more investment, speculation, derivatives, and global participation, leading to higher volatility. Higher volatility is a natural consequence of becoming a mainstream asset class with greater liquidity and diverse participants. The industry's old mindset of expecting low volatility is outdated and risks misjudging the new market reality. WATCH because investors need to adjust their expectations and frameworks for analyzing gold, accepting that its risk/return profile has evolved. This volatility signifies growth and relevance, not instability. The industry fails to adapt its communication and analysis, causing investors to misinterpret healthy volatility as a reason to avoid the asset.
GOLD WATCH
long-term
20:00
Mar 26
Mar 26
20:00
Mar 25
Mar 25
Wealthion
2mo
SPY FLIP
EMXC 1ST
FXI 1ST
▾
The US represents 65% of the MSCI All Country World Index market cap, which is overweight relative to its importance in the global economy. High concentration and elevated valuations compared to other regions suggest better risk-reward opportunities exist abroad. Recommends underweighting US stocks in a global portfolio to capture superior value elsewhere. Persistent US exceptionalism or escalating geopolitical tensions could increase demand for US assets, leading to continued outperformance.
SPY AVOID
Medium to long-term.
Emerging markets excluding China offer lower valuations and contain growing middle classes with strong aspirations for higher living standards. These demographic and valuation dynamics provide a more favorable growth and return profile compared to the US and China. Long emerging markets ex-China as a core component of a global diversification and value-seeking strategy. Geopolitical events or a materially stronger US dollar could pressure emerging market currencies and asset prices.
EMXC LONG
Medium to long-term.
China faces structural headwinds including a burst property bubble, aging demographics, increased government control, and a history of sideways market performance. These factors have resulted in poor investment returns and create a deflationary export dynamic that pressures global industries. Avoid investing in Chinese equities due to an unattractive risk-reward profile and lack of sustained upward trend. A significant shift in government policy toward economic liberalization or successful stimulus could improve the investment case.
FXI AVOID
Long-term.
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