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20:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
IGV
▾
Trade select resilient SaaS stocks after sell-off.
The SaaS (software-as-a-service) sector has sold off 30-60% since February due to fears that AI agents will reduce the number of paying users (seats), threatening the seat-based SaaS business model. This has created a trading opportunity to go long select SaaS stocks with resilient business models, such as those with proprietary data, vertical integration, mission-critical workflows, and deep industry-specific applications. However, the sector may have been permanently repriced due to lower growth expectations, so this is viewed as a tactical trade, not a long-term investment; a 50% rebound would likely be a selling opportunity.
IGV LONG
20:40
Apr 13
Apr 13
GDX
GDXJ
GOLD
▾
Gold stocks undervalued relative to gold price.
Gold deposits in the Abitibi region of Ontario and Quebec are near existing infrastructure like mills, roads, and power, meaning they can be mined and the ore shipped to 'rock-hungry' mills within 15-20 kilometers. This lowers capital costs and makes these deposits highly attractive for acquisition and development.
GDX LONG
Focus on mid-tier single-asset gold producers.
Single-asset gold producers trade at a discount because they are viewed as riskier, but that risk disappears if they are acquired by a multi-asset producer. This creates an easy arbitrage opportunity. Investors should focus on the 'snack bracket' of mid-tier producers that are likely takeover targets.
GDXJ LONG
Gold will maintain purchasing power as dollar falls.
The US dollar is expected to lose 75% of its purchasing power this decade while gold maintains its purchasing power, leading to a significantly higher nominal gold price for the rest of the decade. This macro view supports being bullish on the physical metal.
GOLD LONG
20:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
XLF
▾
The speaker states a common client mistake is having an "exaggeratingly large" portion of wealth in a 401(k), which can lead to future RMDs forcing retirees into high (e.g., 40%+) tax brackets, creating a significant tax burden and potential "tax bomb" for heirs. Over-concentration in tax-deferred accounts like 401(k)s defers tax liability but does not eliminate it. In retirement, RMDs are mandatory and taxed as ordinary income, which can be inefficient if tax rates rise or if it forces the retiree/heir into a higher bracket. A singular focus on maximizing 401(k) contributions is an "AVOID" strategy because it creates future tax inefficiency and reduces flexibility. The core thesis is to diversify *account types*, not just investments. Future tax rates could remain stable or decline, reducing the benefit of tax-free accounts. Legislative changes could alter Roth or inheritance rules.
XLF AVOID
21:30
Apr 07
Apr 07
XLB
GOLD
XLE
HYG
▾
Sold physical silver and rotated the capital into silver mining stocks. Argued that at a ~$75/oz silver price, the stocks were valued as if silver was $45/oz, creating a significant valuation discount. This valuation gap provides a margin of safety. If silver prices rise, stocks will benefit from operating leverage. If silver prices fall or trade sideways, the stocks could still appreciate as their valuations normalize to a higher silver price baseline. LONG on silver mining stocks as a superior risk/reward vehicle compared to physical silver for capturing the next phase of the silver cycle. A severe, sustained downturn in silver prices below the implied valuation level ($45/oz) could erode the margin of safety.
XLB LONG
Stated gold's bull market is intact, comparing recent correction to 25% pullbacks in the 1970s. Says he welcomes low prices as a "sale" and uses corrections to add to his bullion holdings for insurance purposes. The fundamental circumstances driving gold (lack of faith in fiat currency purchasing power, negative real interest rates) have been in place for years and remain unchanged. A weakening economy will likely force the Fed to cut rates and add liquidity, which is negative for the dollar and positive for gold. LONG because gold is viewed as a core savings vehicle and insurance against dollar depreciation, with pullbacks providing strategic accumulation points. A prolonged period of Fed tightening and significant, sustained USD strength could delay the thesis.
GOLD LONG
Allocated 25% of proceeds from silver sale into oil and gas, with a view to 2028/2029. Cites a global sustaining capital expenditure deficit of ~$1 billion per day as the core structural driver. The oil industry is capital-intensive; prolonged underinvestment leads to production declines. This deficit, combined with declining dollar purchasing power, points to structurally higher nominal oil prices over the coming years. LONG on the oil and gas sector due to a multi-year supply constraint thesis, though cautions that entry points now are less attractive than earlier in the year. A sharp, sustained global economic downturn crushing oil demand, or a political shift leading to a rapid, massive increase in capital investment.
XLE LONG
Expresses "biggest fear" is a 2008-style credit contraction stemming from the proliferation of high-yield/junk bond ETFs. Notes these ETFs hold illiquid underlying bonds but trade with high daily liquidity. If negative press on private credit causes retail investors (Moms & Pops) to redeem these ETFs, managers would be forced to sell the illiquid underlying bonds into a non-existent bid, potentially triggering a widespread credit seizure. AVOID due to high systemic risk and the potential for a liquidity mismatch to cause severe contagion. This fear is a primary reason he maintains high personal liquidity. Regulatory intervention or a managed unwind of the ETF structure could mitigate the contagion risk.
HYG AVOID
20:00
Apr 06
Apr 06
XLE
XLB
▾
The speaker explicitly points to uranium's 5-year general uptrend, noting that its frequent corrections have presented "interesting entry points for investors." Institutional money is flooding back into commodities, viewing pullbacks as buying opportunities, and uranium is cited as a prime example of this dynamic. The energy minerals sector (with uranium as a key component) is in a sustained bull market where dips should be used to build positions. A reversal in institutional appetite or a failure of the broader commodity bull market thesis.
XLE LONG
The speaker states there is a need to "increase production of rare earths and copper" and that "gold and silver have their roles in terms of alternatives to paper assets and fiat currencies." These materials are deemed strategically important, facing rising demand from both institutional investors and new government stockpiling programs like Project Vault. Non-energy minerals (including precious and industrial metals) are attractive long-term investments due to structural demand drivers and their role as alternatives to traditional financial assets. A sharp global economic slowdown reducing demand, or a resolution of geopolitical tensions that reduces the urgency for strategic stockpiling.
XLB LONG
20:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
GOLD
URANIUM
▾
The speaker states that China is actively selling U.S. Treasuries with the goal of recycling the capital into physical gold (and other hard assets). China is viewed as opportunistic, buying more aggressively when prices dip. China's long-term strategic goal is to secure supply chains and accumulate hard assets. This creates a persistent, large-scale source of demand that is not based on short-term market sentiment but on national policy. WATCH because, while near-term central bank selling and institutional outflows create headwinds, China's strategic accumulation represents a powerful, structural long-term demand floor and potential catalyst. The price action is currently dominated by tactical de-risking, obscuring this fundamental bid. A prolonged global recession or a significant, sustained strengthening of the U.S. dollar could overwhelm China's incremental demand. A major geopolitical détente between the U.S. and China could also alter this strategy.
GOLD WATCH
The speaker states uranium "will be one of the winners coming out of this," drawing a direct parallel to the 1970s/80s when energy policy shifted to nuclear post-oil shocks. He notes European leaders have recently admitted their phase-out of nuclear was a "strategic mistake." The current (and recent) energy supply shocks are forcing a fundamental policy rethink towards energy security. Nuclear power, fueled by uranium, provides a dense, reliable energy source not subject to the same just-in-time supply chain vulnerabilities as oil & gas. LONG because the geopolitical environment is catalyzing a durable policy shift that directly increases demand for uranium, replicating a historical pattern. The admission of error by key European policymakers indicates a tangible change in the regulatory and investment landscape. A rapid resolution to global energy supply tensions and a reversion to pre-crisis energy policies could slow the adoption rate. Public opposition and high capital costs for new reactors remain persistent hurdles.
URANIUM LONG
20:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
XLK
UNG
XLP
GOLD
TLT
▾
The speaker stated he would "fade any notable rally in tech" due to concerns about capex spending, deteriorating cash flows for hyperscalers, and rising construction costs for data centers, which he calls a "multi-year thing." Even if the geopolitical conflict ends, the pre-existing fundamental concerns for the tech/AI trade remain. A slowing global economy would exacerbate cash flow issues and make capital more expensive. The sector faces structural headwinds that make rallies unsustainable, warranting an AVOID stance, especially on strength. A sharper-than-expected decline in interest rates could re-ignite the momentum trade for long-duration tech assets.
XLK AVOID
The speaker stated he has become "more bullish on natural gas" and is "even more bullish on natural gas companies" post-conflict, citing the increased value of U.S. natural gas after attacks on Qatari LNG facilities. Global LNG supply is constrained, and the U.S. is a crucial supplier. He argues U.S. natural gas prices are more likely to catch up to higher global prices than the reverse. The fundamental case for U.S. natural gas has strengthened due to global supply security concerns, supporting a LONG direction. A rapid, sustained resolution to global energy transport routes and a collapse in Asian/European demand could negate the global price arbitrage.
UNG LONG
The speaker explicitly said he finds consumer staple stocks "screaming cheap" and has been buying more of them after they were sold off due to fears that higher food prices would hurt lower-income consumers. The market's fear-driven sell-off has created valuation opportunities in stable, non-cyclical companies that may be overly penalized for a transitory pressure on a segment of their consumer base. Valuation dislocation presents a buying opportunity in a defensive sector, warranting a LONG view. A deep, protracted recession that significantly impacts overall consumer spending power, not just lower-income segments.
XLP LONG
The speaker stated gold recently showed a day of rallying as a "safety trade" amid broad selling, which told him "the gold sell off was probably closer to the end than the beginning." He is long-term bullish but sees near-term digestion. After a parabolic move and subsequent correction driven by a strong dollar and rising real rates, gold is showing early signs of finding a bottom and regaining its safe-haven特性. The price action suggests a potential near-term low is forming, making it a setup worth monitoring closely, hence WATCH. A continued surge in real interest rates or a major, coordinated foreign sale of gold reserves for liquidity could extend the correction.
GOLD WATCH
The speaker stated he has been "bearish on long-term treasuries" and sees the short end as more attractive. He highlighted risks of foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries to raise capital and that rising global defense spending will put "upward pressure on global bond yields." Structural deficits are increasing (e.g., defense), creating more supply, while a key buyer base (foreign governments) may become net sellers for liquidity needs, pressuring prices. The combination of increased supply and potential demand withdrawal creates a poor risk/reward for long-duration government bonds, warranting an AVOID. A severe global deflationary shock that triggers a flight to safety and forces central banks to enact massive quantitative easing.
TLT AVOID
20:00
Mar 31
Mar 31
GLD,SLV
ENB
AEM
FNV
WPM
▾
Wellum explicitly advises owning gold and silver, citing US debt issues and structural problems as key reasons, with numbers showing $63 trillion in deficits plus unfunded liabilities vs. $16 trillion GDP growth (2010-2025). The US fiscal trajectory is "intractable" and necessitates a reset, making precious metals a hedge outside the fiat system; silver also faces supply deficits from industrial demand. LONG for wealth preservation and as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical tensions. Short-term price volatility or unexpected policy interventions that temporarily suppress prices.
GLD,SLV LONG
Wellum explicitly mentions Enbridge and TC Energy as companies he looks at, noting they are "massive North American players" making inroads in the US despite Canadian regulatory challenges. These firms benefit from long-term energy demand from safer regions, with attractive cash flow yields and expansion opportunities in the US where economics are more favorable. LONG because they are well-positioned to capitalize on sustained energy needs and supply chain shifts over 3-5 years. Persistent political and regulatory hurdles in Canada could limit growth or increase capital costs.
ENB LONG
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
AEM LONG
FNV LONG
WPM LONG
20:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
SILVER
GOLD
▾
The speaker notes silver was up 145% in 2024 and had a massive run in January 2025, indicating strong momentum within the same precious metals bull market driven by the core fundamentals (anti-dollar, deficit, Fed credibility). Silver experienced an even sharper correction (41% peak-to-trough) than gold, which he contextualizes as part of a volatile "blowoff top" and subsequent correction phase, not a breakdown of the bull market. It recovered to $103 by early March. As a leveraged play on the same monetary and anti-fiat fundamentals as gold, and having shown explosive upside, its long-term trajectory remains positive once short-term geopolitical and policy misconceptions clear. A severe, protracted industrial downturn that disproportionately impacts silver's demand, alongside a breakdown in the gold bull thesis.
SILVER LONG
The speaker states he has followed three core fundamentals for 20 years that have driven gold from ~$250 to $4,000: anti-dollar sentiment, the US deficit, and fading Fed credibility. He argues these fundamentals "really hit inflection points" in late 2024/2025. The recent sell-off is driven by a short-term, mistaken market narrative linking higher oil prices (from the Iran conflict) to expectations of central bank tightening. He contends tightening is impossible given high debt and ongoing Fed liquidity programs (RMPs). The long-term fundamental drivers are stronger than the short-term geopolitical noise and incorrect policy expectations, supporting a long-term bullish view. A sustained, credible shift by the Fed towards aggressive tightening despite high debt levels, which the speaker currently deems impossible.
GOLD LONG
20:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
GOLD
▾
The speaker states the gold market is in a structural shift from a niche interest to a mainstream, globally-integrated capital market with more investment, speculation, derivatives, and global participation, leading to higher volatility. Higher volatility is a natural consequence of becoming a mainstream asset class with greater liquidity and diverse participants. The industry's old mindset of expecting low volatility is outdated and risks misjudging the new market reality. WATCH because investors need to adjust their expectations and frameworks for analyzing gold, accepting that its risk/return profile has evolved. This volatility signifies growth and relevance, not instability. The industry fails to adapt its communication and analysis, causing investors to misinterpret healthy volatility as a reason to avoid the asset.
GOLD WATCH
20:00
Mar 26
Mar 26
20:00
Mar 25
Mar 25
SPY
FXI
EMXC
▾
The US represents 65% of the MSCI All Country World Index market cap, which is overweight relative to its importance in the global economy. High concentration and elevated valuations compared to other regions suggest better risk-reward opportunities exist abroad. Recommends underweighting US stocks in a global portfolio to capture superior value elsewhere. Persistent US exceptionalism or escalating geopolitical tensions could increase demand for US assets, leading to continued outperformance.
SPY AVOID
China faces structural headwinds including a burst property bubble, aging demographics, increased government control, and a history of sideways market performance. These factors have resulted in poor investment returns and create a deflationary export dynamic that pressures global industries. Avoid investing in Chinese equities due to an unattractive risk-reward profile and lack of sustained upward trend. A significant shift in government policy toward economic liberalization or successful stimulus could improve the investment case.
FXI AVOID
Emerging markets excluding China offer lower valuations and contain growing middle classes with strong aspirations for higher living standards. These demographic and valuation dynamics provide a more favorable growth and return profile compared to the US and China. Long emerging markets ex-China as a core component of a global diversification and value-seeking strategy. Geopolitical events or a materially stronger US dollar could pressure emerging market currencies and asset prices.
EMXC LONG
21:02
Mar 24
Mar 24
GOLD
▾
Speaker identifies the "big three" gold fundamentals (anti-dollar sentiment, U.S. deficit, fading Fed credibility) hitting inflection points. He notes gold has been the unparalleled portfolio hedge in the last three S&P corrections, outperforming by wide margins. Current market fears of central bank tightening due to oil-driven inflation are mistaken; the Fed is simultaneously conducting "Reserve Management Purchases" (effectively QE), making hikes impossible. True global capital is moving into gold for safety from systemic financial risk. Once the current geopolitical noise passes and a stock market break occurs, capital will flood into hard assets, driving gold to $6,000-$7,000. A prolonged, deflationary global economic collapse that strengthens the U.S. dollar dramatically.
GOLD SHORT
20:00
Mar 23
Mar 23
GOLD
SILVER
▾
Larry explicitly states, "I believe gold's going to 10,000, 15,000, 20,000." He attributes this to government deficits, unchecked money printing, and a broken fiscal system that gold anticipates, with no reform in sight. Long-term bullish direction due to irreversible currency debasement trend, making gold a core holding. Serious, unexpected reform in government spending that curbs deficits, which he deems unlikely.
GOLD LONG
He notes silver corrected but remains above its 200-day moving average (~51), and explicitly disagrees with views that it will fall back to $50. Silver shares similar fundamentals with gold; the correction is a normal part of a bull market cycle, and a base is expected to form as deficits grow. Worth watching for entry as the correction provides a setup for potential upside, but timing is key after frothy extremes. If the correction deepens significantly beyond moving averages or if macroeconomic conditions shift abruptly.
SILVER WATCH
21:15
Mar 19
Mar 19
GOLD
SILVER
GDX
SILJ
▾
Speaker states the precious metals bull market is in its early stages and expects "at least two more years" of rally. Gold's rise is attributed to a fundamental breakdown in the economic system, not inflation, with demand driven by non-Western central banks. The bull market thesis implies continued price appreciation with a cited target range of $6,000 to $7,000, offering significant upside. A resolution of the perceived systemic economic stresses or a shift in central bank buying behavior could halt the rally.
GOLD LONG
Speaker notes silver's bull market began later than gold's and that the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR), though down from 120, remains elevated near 50 versus a historical norm of 30-40. As a monetary metal, silver tends to catch up to gold in a bull market; the current GSR implies substantial undervaluation relative to gold. Silver offers leveraged upside to the same macroeconomic drivers as gold, with the expectation it will rally to close the GSR gap. A stall in the gold bull market or a sustained divergence in monetary versus industrial demand could impair the thesis.
SILVER LONG
Speaker explicitly states gold mining stocks are cheap, lagging the metal's price rise, and that "elite gold miners" offer 2.5x to 3x return potential at $6,000-$7,000 gold. Higher gold prices directly and powerfully expand miner profit margins and free cash flow, but equity valuations have not yet discounted this due to Wall Street disinterest and investor misunderstanding. Gold miners represent a high-leverage, undervalued play on rising gold prices, trading at a fraction of their estimated fair value. Operational execution risks, cost inflation, and a failure of gold prices to reach expected targets could negate the upside.
GDX LONG
Speaker argues silver mining stocks are extremely undervalued, noting their prices have not kept pace with silver's rise, using the SILJ ETF as an example of this disconnect. With silver prices well above the $35 level where miner margins were weak, profitability should surge, yet equity valuations have not reflected this improvement. Silver mining stocks are positioned for massive upside (characterized as "at least five baggers") as the sector catches up to the metal's bull market. These stocks are typically more volatile and carry higher operational/geopolitical risks than gold miners; a sustained decline in silver prices would be particularly damaging.
SILJ LONG
21:00
Mar 18
Mar 18
QQQ
GOLD
▾
Recommended underweighting the Magnificent 7 in early December when they traded at a 31x P/E multiple. Has now moved back to a market weight position as the multiple has fallen to 25x. The significant derating (from 31x to 25x) makes these "phenomenal growth companies" more attractive on a valuation basis within the context of his resilient earnings and economic outlook. The valuation reset presents a more favorable entry point for these core growth leaders. A recession that leads to both lower earnings (E) and a lower valuation multiple (P/E), resulting in a bear market.
QQQ LONG
Predicted gold would reach $6,000/oz by end of 2024 (price moved from ~$3,000 to over $5,500). Maintains a long-term target of $10,000/oz by the end of the decade. Demand is driven by central banks diversifying away from dollars post-Russia sanctions, Chinese investment due to domestic market weakness, consistent Indian demand, and escalating geopolitical uncertainty. Views gold as a core portfolio diversifier that trends with equity wealth. Multiple structural and cyclical demand drivers, combined with its role in balancing a portfolio for an increasingly wealthy world, support significantly higher prices. A sustained period of US dollar strength can weigh on the gold price.
GOLD LONG
20:00
Mar 16
Mar 16
CPER
COPX
GLD
SLV
▾
"if there's fear of recession that copper will take it on the chin" and "to put copper on sale and copper stocks even more on sale and I would buy that dip". Recession fears triggered by war and its economic knock-on effects (e.g., higher oil prices, trade disruptions) could lead to a short-term sell-off in copper prices and mining stocks. However, the speaker believes central banks will deploy stimulus to avert a recession, making any dip a temporary discount. Copper demand remains underpinned by long-term inflationary trends and rebuilding needs. LONG on dips because the expected sell-off is transient, and copper fundamentals are strong due to structural demand and monetary support. An actual recession occurs despite interventions, reducing industrial demand for copper, or supply chains recover faster than expected, capping price gains.
CPER LONG
COPX LONG
"I don't think they would sell off in the same way" as copper, and "you should content yourself with buying the bigger dips before we make the next big move higher." Gold and silver are primarily monetary hedges and are less sensitive to industrial recession fears than copper. They may experience corrections or consolidation, but the long-term uptrend is supported by persistent inflationary policies and potential currency debasement. Waiting for larger dips provides better risk-adjusted entry points for long-term appreciation. WATCH for significant dips to initiate LONG positions, as precious metals are expected to resume their upward trajectory over time. A major market crash (e.g., 2008-style) could trigger a broad liquidation affecting gold and silver, or a sudden shift to deflationary policies could undermine their appeal.
GLD WATCH
SLV WATCH
20:30
Mar 13
Mar 13
GLD
SLV
SPY
USO
▾
"I'm very bullish on gold and silver in particular... anything that governments can't print or lend into existence gets a tailwind here." War is highly inflationary due to the constant need to replace destroyed materials and munitions. Combined with BRICS nations moving their financial lifeblood away from New York and central banks continuing to buy, fiat currencies will face sustained pressure. This creates a structural, long-term tailwind for monetary metals that cannot be inflated away by central banks. LONG GLD and SLV as core safe-haven assets to protect against geopolitical inflation and fiat debasement. Short-term volatility driven by Fed rate hike fears or algorithmic trading based on geopolitical headlines could cause temporary, sharp drawdowns.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
"They've closed a straight of Hormuz and it is just astounding to me how close the S&P remains to all-time highs in this context." The broader equity market is currently pricing in a perfect "soft landing" and ignoring severe geopolitical tail risks. The closure of major global shipping chokepoints will inevitably lead to supply shocks and higher input costs for corporations. Because these risks are not priced in, broad market indices are highly vulnerable to a sudden repricing event. AVOID SPY, as the risk/reward ratio is skewed negatively due to extreme market complacency in the face of escalating global conflict. The market could remain irrational longer than expected, or a sudden, unexpected peace resolution could trigger a massive relief rally.
SPY AVOID
"I don't just mean oil shock, though obviously that's a factor... They've closed a straight of Hormuz." The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global oil transit. Its closure directly restricts physical supply to the global market. As long as rockets are being fired at ships and the strait remains impassable, the physical shortage will drive up the underlying price of crude oil. LONG USO to capture the upside of energy supply shocks caused by Middle Eastern conflict. Geopolitical de-escalation or a single tweet signaling a ceasefire can cause violent, immediate downside reversals in oil prices.
USO LONG
20:00
Mar 12
Mar 12
VXUS
VEA
GDE
GDMN
GDT
▾
"You see the last 12 months you see international starting to work... The neutral allocation to foreign today is roughly 60/40... most people are nowhere near 50/50." US retail and institutional investors have spent the last 15 years heavily overweighting US large-cap tech. As international markets begin to show relative strength, portfolios will be forced to rebalance toward historical neutral weightings, driving sustained capital inflows into ex-US equities. LONG broad international equity ETFs to capture the mean reversion in global asset allocation. Continued US economic exceptionalism; a surging US dollar that suppresses foreign equity returns.
VXUS LONG
VEA LONG
"Central banks is one of the key buyers of gold recently... we have three different gold overlays today in the US. GDE is the equity core with gold futures. The miners is GDMN and more recently GDT that does TIPS." Retail investors are vastly under-allocated to gold because they do not want to sacrifice the yield of equities or bonds. Capital-efficient ETFs solve this by using futures to stack gold exposure on top of core stock and bond holdings. As the narrative shifts from crypto speculation back to structural central bank gold buying, these capital-efficient vehicles will attract significant AUM. LONG capital-efficient gold and miner ETFs to capture central bank-driven price appreciation without sacrificing core portfolio yields. Central banks abruptly halt their gold purchases; a spike in real interest rates causes non-yielding assets to sell off.
GDE LONG
GDMN LONG
GDT LONG
"They buy dirt. They lease it out to farmers... you see all these farms converting to data centers because we need these data centers. They need land where there's good water and that often overlaps where we had farmland." Farmland provides a baseline of stable, inflation-protected rental income with virtually zero vacancy risk. However, the explosive upside comes from the AI infrastructure boom. Tech companies are desperate for land with access to massive water supplies to cool data centers. Public farmland REITs will benefit from this dramatic revaluation of their underlying acreage. LONG farmland REITs as a backdoor, lower-volatility play on AI data center expansion and inflation protection. High interest rates pressure REIT valuations; a crash in agricultural commodity prices leads to farmer tenant defaults.
LAND LONG
FPI LONG
20:00
Mar 10
Mar 10
GLD
ARES
KKR
OWL
CVX
▾
If you were just neutral to equities, fixed income and alternatives, how much would you have in gold? It would be about 13% in gold. So people might be 10% underweight just being neutral. Institutional and retail portfolios are structurally underweight gold compared to a true neutral weighting. As investors realize this deficiency and seek to hedge rising geopolitical and margin risks, capital will systematically flow into gold ETFs to close this allocation gap. Go long gold as a structural portfolio diversifier and catch-up trade for under-allocated investors. A sudden resolution to global conflicts and a massive acceleration in real economic growth could reduce the safe-haven demand for precious metals.
GLD LONG
Things like Owl and Ares and KKR and all these big private credit names really selling off... I'm looking at some of this selloff as being a little overdone. The market is mispricing private credit risk by incorrectly comparing it to the 2008 bank leverage cycle. Without a broad economic recession or surging corporate defaults, the massive 40-50% selloff in these alternative asset managers presents a deep-value entry point. Go long top-tier private credit and alternative asset managers that have been unfairly punished by macro fears. If the US economy enters a severe recession, corporate defaults will spike, leading to actual structural losses and liquidity gates in private credit funds.
ARES LONG
KKR LONG
OWL LONG
We've had some big gains in things like Exxon and Chevron and some big energy names. Taking some chips because they've been up so much. Energy stocks have experienced massive run-ups due to geopolitical risk premiums, specifically the Iran conflict. With global oil markets remaining fundamentally well-supplied, the risk/reward is no longer favorable, making it prudent to rotate capital out of energy and into beaten-down sectors. Take profits and move to a neutral stance on major energy producers. A severe escalation in the Middle East that permanently closes the Strait of Hormuz would cause a massive supply shock, sending oil majors significantly higher.
CVX NEUTRAL
XOM NEUTRAL
I've been using the tagline a defense tech super cycle... even the US rebuilding its arsenal to modernize... it's going to be a 10-year period of tremendous innovation. Rising geopolitical tensions are forcing global governments to modernize and rebuild depleted arsenals with next-generation technology (like drone defenses). This guarantees a decade-long pipeline of elevated government spending flowing directly into aerospace and defense contractors. Go long the defense and aerospace sector to capture the structural increase in global military spending. Unexpected global peace treaties or severe government austerity measures could slash defense budgets and halt the modernization super cycle.
ITA LONG
XAR LONG
Korea's two leading companies, Samsung and Hynix... have been on fire, but they've actually been getting cheaper... they're like small single-digit PEs, like 5 PE when the S&P is 20. The market is treating the AI-driven earnings surge in Asian memory chipmakers as a temporary bubble, pricing them at distressed multiples. However, AI infrastructure demand is a structural shift, meaning these elevated earnings are sustainable and the stocks are deeply undervalued relative to US tech. Go long Korean semiconductor leaders and broad Korean equities to capture mispriced AI supply chain fundamentals. A cyclical downturn in consumer electronics or an oversupply of memory chips could compress margins and validate the low P/E multiples.
EWY LONG
SSNLF LONG
People are underexposed to the dollar. Actually, they've been overexposed to the euro, the yen, the pound... in risk-off moments the dollar tends to go up. Consensus positioning has become overly bearish on the USD, driven by premature expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. With the Fed likely holding rates higher for longer and rising global risk-off catalysts, the dollar will catch a bid as a high-yielding safe haven. Go long the US Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies to exploit offside bearish positioning. If the Fed unexpectedly slashes interest rates due to a sudden domestic economic contraction, the yield differential will collapse, weakening the dollar.
UUP LONG
People talk about copper as like one of the strategic metals that you really need to do this AI and energy buildout. The exponential energy demands of AI data centers require a massive, physical infrastructure buildout. This creates a structural, multi-year supply and demand imbalance for copper and other strategic metals, driving prices higher. Go long copper and copper miners as a derivative play on the physical infrastructure required for the AI boom. A global manufacturing recession or breakthroughs in alternative conductive materials could severely reduce the industrial demand for copper.
CPER LONG
COPX LONG
20:00
Mar 09
Mar 09
MSFT
BTC
KRE
IAT
JPM
▾
"I don't touch AI because I don't know who's going to make money... I'm not gonna let my capital figure it out and go to zero." While AI is a massive macro trend that will reshape the economy, the sector is in its infancy. The ultimate corporate winners are unknown, making direct equity investments highly speculative and prone to total loss. AVOID direct AI stock exposure; play the second-order effects (money printing via BTC) instead. AI incumbents maintain their moats and continue to generate massive, predictable returns, causing you to miss out on equity upside.
MSFT AVOID
NVDA AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
"there's going to be more money printed and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to fiat credit flows." AI-driven job losses will cause a consumer credit crisis, forcing the Federal Reserve to inject massive liquidity into the system to bail out failing regional banks. Bitcoin acts as a direct sponge for this fiat debasement. LONG BTC as a front-run on inevitable Fed money printing triggered by the AI deflationary shock. The Fed delays printing, or AI job losses take longer to materialize, leaving BTC vulnerable to short-term liquidity crunches.
BTC LONG
"what happens to a banking system that's very highly levered, especially the smaller banks... Those are the guys who get carried out" Junior knowledge workers hold significant consumer debt (auto, credit cards, mortgages). As AI replaces them, they will default. Regional banks that chased yield by loading up on this consumer debt will face catastrophic loan losses and insolvency. SHORT regional bank ETFs as they are the direct bag-holders of the impending white-collar consumer default wave. The Fed preemptively bails out regional banks before equity gets wiped out, or AI adoption is slower than expected.
KRE SHORT
IAT SHORT
"It's not about the big banks. JP Morgan is going to be fine. JP Morgan and City with a government guarantee." When regional banks collapse due to consumer credit defaults, panic will ensue. Depositors and capital will flee to systematically important financial institutions (SIFIs) that have implicit government backing, increasing their market share and deposit base. LONG mega-cap banks as a safe haven and market-share winner during the upcoming regional banking crisis. Broad market contagion drags down all financial equities, or regulators impose stricter capital requirements on SIFIs.
JPM LONG
C LONG
21:00
Mar 05
Mar 05
Arthur Hayes: "They're Going to Print the Money" — Hyperliquid, War, Hard Assets & the Macro Endgame
GLD
SLV
ZCSH
URA
CPER
▾
Hayes states he prefers "rocks in the ground" (Gold, Silver, Uranium, Copper) because "the data centers need it, the gold industry needs it, all the merchants of death need it." War and AI are resource-intensive. War requires physical material, and AI data centers require massive power (Uranium) and conductivity (Copper). These sectors have suffered 20 years of underinvestment while capital chased software. Long hard assets as a secular inflation and industrial demand play. A sudden deflationary bust or austerity measures that crush global demand.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
URA LONG
CPER LONG
Hayes states, "I'm super bullish on Zcash... you can deanonymize Bitcoin transactions quite easily." As governments increase surveillance and financial repression (war economy), the premium for actual privacy increases. Bitcoin is a public ledger; Zcash offers true digital cash privacy. (Note: ZCSH is the Grayscale trust proxy for Zcash). Long privacy assets as a hedge against surveillance. Privacy coins face the highest risk of regulatory bans and delistings from exchanges.
ZCSH LONG
Hayes explicitly says, "Let's hammer Salesforce... they're no longer going to sell these very, very high subscriptions." The "SaaS Apocalypse." Venture capital spent 15 years funding software companies based on headcount growth. AI allows companies to do more with fewer people. Fewer employees means fewer SaaS "seats" (subscriptions), destroying the revenue model of legacy SaaS giants. Short/Avoid legacy SaaS companies dependent on per-seat pricing models. AI integration might allow SaaS companies to pivot pricing models successfully before revenue collapses.
CRM SHORT
Hayes argues, "If there's a war going on, is the Fed going to not print the money to fund the war? Of course not." Political theater (who is Fed Chair, who is President) is noise. The structural reality is that the US government must print money to fund debts and wars. Bitcoin is the direct hedge against this debasement. Regulatory acts (Clarity Act) do not drive price; liquidity injections do. Long Bitcoin (via spot ETFs) as a liquidity sponge. Global austerity measures (governments actually cutting spending), which Hayes views as unlikely but possible.
IBIT LONG
BITO LONG
Hayes explains that traditional exchanges (like CME) cannot compete with 24/7 crypto perpetual markets because their clearing architecture is built for "9-to-5" banking hours and cannot offer the high leverage retail demands. Retail liquidity is sticky and demands 24/7 access and high leverage. Legacy exchanges are structurally incapable of offering this without risking insolvency due to their clearing models. This implies legacy exchanges will lose market share to offshore/DeFi derivatives platforms. Avoid legacy exchange operators as they face disruption from 24/7 decentralized competitors. Regulators could shut down offshore competitors, forcing volume back to regulated US exchanges.
CME AVOID
ICE AVOID
21:00
Mar 04
Mar 04
TLT
IEF
ARCC
MAIN
FSK
▾
"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).
TLT SHORT
IEF SHORT
"Investors should be looking at potentially higher interest rates and the drag that higher interest rates would have on heavily levered companies. It's one of the things I think that's bothering BDC companies." Business Development Companies (BDCs) lend to middle-market firms and often use leverage themselves. In a "higher for longer" rate environment (rates rising to 5-6%), their borrowing costs rise and their portfolio companies struggle to service debt, squeezing margins and increasing default risk. AVOID or SHORT the BDC sector. If the economy booms significantly enough to offset interest costs, BDCs could perform well due to high dividend yields.
ARCC AVOID
MAIN AVOID
FSK AVOID
"I've been a big bear and remain a big bear on the Chinese economy... I would avoid investing in China in any way." Despite manufacturing strength, China faces a "tremendous real estate problem" (worthless assets held by citizens) and a shrinking population. The stock market is still 40% off its 2008 highs. There is no catalyst for a sustained bull market in Chinese equities. AVOID Chinese broad market ETFs. A massive government stimulus package could trigger a short-term rally.
FXI AVOID
MCHI AVOID
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
USO LONG
CPER LONG
"I think that story ran its course... We're in a transition right now from the permission environment... to the replacement tradition." The "Summer" (Bull Market) driven by ETFs and US adoption ended in late 2025. The market is now stuck between narratives. Until the "Replacement" narrative (Third World using crypto as actual currency) gains traction or creates value accrual for the tokens, price action will remain stalled or choppy. NEUTRAL / WATCH. Wait for the new narrative to drive price before aggressive allocation. Regulatory crackdowns could stifle the "replacement" utility in developing nations.
BTC WATCH
ETH WATCH
22:00
Mar 03
Mar 03
GLD
SLV
FCX
SCCO
COPX
▾
Hemke notes that despite the sell-off, Gold is in a predictable consolidation pattern. He states, "The next target is 6,000... producing sharply negative real interest rates... always very bullish for gold." The current dip is driven by high-frequency trading algorithms reacting to a temporary spike in the Dollar (DXY). However, the incoming fiscal policy (monetizing the balance sheet/yield curve control) guarantees negative real rates, which mathematically forces hard assets higher to offset currency debasement. LONG. The sell-off is a "buy the fear" opportunity within a secular bull market targeting $6,000. A sustained deflationary crash where the Dollar spikes uncontrollably, forcing a liquidation of all assets (margin calls).
GLD LONG
Hemke points out that Silver open interest is at 2.5-year lows and highlights an "800 million ounce silver supply deficit over the last four years." Low open interest indicates the "tourists" and hedge funds have already washed out, leaving the market primed for a rally when liquidity returns. The physical deficit combined with monetary debasement creates a dual-engine bull case. LONG. Volatility is high, but the risk/reward favors the upside given the physical shortage. Industrial recession reducing physical demand; paper markets decoupling further from physical reality.
SLV LONG
Hemke explicitly states, "I started buying a couple of copper miners last month... fundamentals for copper are just extraordinary." Copper is gaining status as a "critical mineral" and faces severe supply constraints ("extraordinary fundamentals"). As the dollar is devalued to service debt, copper (and the miners extracting it) acts as a leveraged play on both inflation and industrial scarcity. LONG. Miners offer leverage to the underlying commodity price which is supported by structural deficits. Global economic slowdown reducing copper demand; operational risks for specific mining companies.
FCX LONG
SCCO LONG
COPX LONG
Hemke discusses the "Fed Treasury Accord" where they will "run it hot" to grow out of debt, noting "the dollar is becoming less valuable as we try to service the 39 trillion in debt." The explicit policy goal of the Treasury (Bessent) and Fed (Warsh) is to engineer negative real rates. This is effectively a managed devaluation of the currency to reduce the real debt burden. SHORT (Betting on Dollar weakness/debasement). A geopolitical "flight to safety" event where the world rushes into USD despite fundamentals (the "milkshake theory").
UUP SHORT
21:00
Mar 02
Mar 02
GLD
SLV
PPLT
SPY
▾
"My target now is at least 10,000... the central banks are buying gold at a more rapid pace than they ever have in decades." The floor for gold is being raised by non-price-sensitive sovereign buyers (Central Banks). As Wall Street models shift from 60/40 to 60/20/20 (including gold), massive institutional capital inflows will chase this limited supply, driving the price to the $10k target. LONG gold as a core portfolio allocation (10-20%). Deflationary crash where all asset classes (including gold) are sold for liquidity initially.
GLD LONG
"I still expect... that the silver market will outperform gold at the end of the day... In the unlikely event of an all-out financial collapse, silver will become the money of last resort." Silver acts as a high-beta play on gold. If the monetary system frays ("the end game"), gold becomes too valuable for daily transactions, forcing silver to monetize. This utility demand creates higher upside potential for silver relative to gold in crisis scenarios. LONG silver for outperformance relative to gold. Industrial demand collapse (recession) could hurt silver more than gold due to its dual industrial/monetary nature.
SLV LONG
"Right now, the power of silver is at a 25 year high against platinum. In other words, you're buying more platinum per ounce of silver than you could have bought in the last two and a half decades." This is a mean-reversion trade based on the Gold/Silver/Platinum ratios. Silver is historically expensive relative to Platinum. Investors holding silver should swap into Platinum to capture the valuation gap as the ratio normalizes. LONG Platinum (specifically funded by selling Silver). The automotive industry (catalytic converters) collapses, reducing industrial demand for Platinum.
PPLT LONG
"If you got a nice profit... in S&P 500... it might be smart to rebalance and take some of those profits and move it into precious metals... The S&P is not going to zero. It might be cut in half, might go down 80%." Equities are currently at a local maximum. While total ruin is unlikely, the risk/reward ratio has shifted unfavorably compared to hard assets. It is time to harvest gains and rotate into undervalued defensive sectors (metals). NEUTRAL (Trim exposure/Rebalance). "Melt-up" scenario where inflation drives nominal stock prices significantly higher despite poor real returns.
SPY NEUTRAL
21:00
Feb 27
Feb 27
GLD
PSLV
SIL
SILJ
▾
"The general public that's waking up more and more every day to the reality of a fiat fiasco in all currencies... Gold's, you know, 5,000 per ounce." While Morgan prefers Silver for the "catch-up" trade, he acknowledges Gold as the primary "safe haven" and store of value in a "fiat fiasco." The trend is established ($5,100 price point), and holding the anchor asset is necessary for portfolio stability during currency debasement. LONG Gold as the foundational defensive asset. Central bank coordinated selling or rate hikes to defend fiat currencies.
GLD LONG
"The physical market took command of the pricing mechanism, not the paper markets... When you ask for thousand ounce bars and you take it out of the exchange... Now you're in the red alert critical territory." Morgan explicitly warns against the "paper paradigm" and COMEX derivatives, favoring physical possession. While SLV is the standard ETF, PSLV (Sprott Physical Silver Trust) is the instrument that actually holds fully allocated physical bars and allows for redemption, aligning perfectly with his thesis that "paper" is broken and physical scarcity is the driver. LONG physical silver exposure to capture the move from $86 to $160+. Regulatory intervention or exchange rule changes (e.g., "force majeure") that settle contracts in cash rather than metal.
PSLV LONG
"I expect silver to at least get to that level of gold silver [ratio], which means silver will double from here." If the underlying metal price doubles from $86 to ~$170, silver mining companies will experience massive margin expansion due to operating leverage. Their costs are relatively fixed; a 100% increase in revenue translates to a significantly higher percentage increase in free cash flow. LONG the miners to capture beta on the move in the metal. Nationalization of mines or windfall profit taxes as governments react to the currency crisis implied by $5,000+ gold.
SIL LONG
SILJ LONG
21:00
Feb 26
Feb 26
GLD
SLV
PPLT
GDX
SIL
▾
"I would focus on the big three uh particularly gold and silver. I include platinum as a third. I think it's an outlier on the white metals to possibly even outshine silver which I expect to outshine gold." The speaker outlines a hierarchy of performance: Platinum > Silver > Gold. While Gold is the "safest" banking mechanism, the white metals (Silver and Platinum) offer asymmetric upside due to industrial shortages (solid-state batteries for silver) and extreme undervaluation. Long the physical metals (or their liquid ETF proxies) is the primary trade for this cycle. Short-term volatility or "slapdowns" in paper markets before the physical shortage is fully realized.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
PPLT LONG
"Miners will potentially outperform and they get fully respected for what they do and uh they are they they will they will put in big big multiples. I prefer existing mines where the production risk is no longer a problem." While physical metal is for safety, miners are for leverage. The speaker explicitly advises against "100,000x" exploration lottery tickets, favoring established producers ("existing mines"). Therefore, large-cap miner ETFs (GDX for gold, SIL for silver) are the correct vehicle to capture this "production" leverage without single-asset exploration risk. Long established producers to capture operating leverage on rising metal prices. Operational costs (energy/labor) rising faster than metal prices; jurisdiction risks.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
"The signs that we are getting close to having to acknowledge the the debasement... will be uh bond prices uh going into contagion... interest rate spikes, bank uh busts." The speaker predicts a "bonfire" of the current financial system. "Interest rate spikes" mathematically equal crashing bond prices (Short TLT). "Bank busts" implies severe stress for the banking sector, particularly regionals (Short/Avoid KRE). Avoid or Short long-duration Treasuries and Regional Banks as counterparty risk and contagion set in. Central banks may intervene with yield curve control (YCC) or bailouts, temporarily propping up nominal bond prices and bank equity.
TLT AVOID
KRE AVOID
22:30
Feb 25
Feb 25
TLT
GLD
SLV
QQQ
BTC
▾
Hunt calls the bond market a "busted flush" and notes that since late 2020, bonds have been in a chronic debasement phase. Buying long-duration debt (TLT) is buying a promise to be paid back in devalued currency. The collateral backing the system (Treasuries) is losing real value, making it a "toxic" asset class. AVOID. Bonds offer return-free risk in real terms. A deflationary crash could temporarily boost bond prices as yields fall.
TLT AVOID
Hunt states that gold is the "only valid unit of account" in a world of "varying fiats that are all deeply ill." He notes outlier volume in December call options with strikes at $15,000 and $20,000. If all fiat currencies are debasing simultaneously, assets priced in fiat are unreliable. Capital must flee to the only asset that is not a liability of another party (gold). The option whale activity suggests smart money is positioning for a violent repricing event soon. LONG. Gold is the primary overweight position for capital preservation. Short-term manipulation or "slap downs" in paper markets; government confiscation or windfall taxes on realized gains.
GLD LONG
Hunt believes the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) will eventually collapse to "single digits" (historically 15:1 or higher, currently much higher). He targets a silver price potentially in the "four digits" if hyper-debasement occurs. Silver is the "most bullied child" of the metals complex due to financialization. When the suppression breaks, the reversion to the mean relative to gold will result in silver massively outperforming gold (high beta). LONG. Silver acts as a leveraged play on the gold thesis. High volatility; silver often experiences "slap in the face" sell-offs (like the Jan 30th event mentioned) before recovering.
SLV LONG
When the NASDAQ is divided by the price of gold, Hunt identifies a massive "Head and Shoulders" topping pattern. He notes the ratio has broken the neckline. While tech stocks may look strong in nominal dollars, they are losing purchasing power. The "triggering event" of the neckline break implies a major reversal where tech stocks will lose significant value relative to real assets. SHORT (or Underweight). Equities are the "monkey on the grease pole" slipping into a tar pit of devaluation. Continued nominal printing ("melt-up") could keep stock prices high in dollar terms, even if they lose value in real terms.
QQQ SHORT
Hunt observes that Bitcoin has been "rejected" relative to gold for seven consecutive months and is failing to make new highs in gold terms. He calls it a "puke through a key level." Bitcoin was sold as a sovereign store of value ("digital gold"), but it is failing this test during a period of fiat debasement. Hunt argues it lacks privacy (surveillance coin) and that "OGs" are unloading into new retail liquidity. AVOID (or SHORT). It is not the safe haven investors believe it to be. A speculative mania or "pumpamentals" could drive price up temporarily despite the deteriorating technicals against gold.
BTC AVOID
Hunt refers to miners and call options on miners as his "lottery tickets" and "speculative" holdings. Miners offer leverage to the underlying metal price. While physical metal is for insurance ("blue pot"), miners are for generating alpha ("red/orange pot"). LONG. Use as a high-risk, high-reward proxy for the gold thesis. Nationalization of mines, windfall taxes, and operational risks (energy costs).
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
Hunt states the Dollar Index (DXY) has "fallen out of an 18-year bull trend" and is currently forming a "bear flag." The US has the "dirtiest shirt" due to its status as the global hegemon with the largest deficits and unfunded liabilities. The technical breakdown signals a return to a structural bear market for the currency. SHORT. The dollar is vulnerable to further downside as the "Triffin Dilemma" unwinds. A global liquidity crisis could temporarily spike the dollar (milkshake theory) before the ultimate devaluation.
UUP SHORT
21:00
Feb 24
Feb 24
BA
IWM
VXX
GLD
DE
▾
"To the extent you're helping... the American car industry, it's at the detriment of exporters like aerospace or farm products." Casey argues that tariffs hurt exporters. Therefore, the Supreme Court striking down these tariffs removes the headwind for major US exporters. Aerospace and Agriculture are explicitly named as the victims of the previous tariff regime. LONG Exporters (Boeing for Aerospace, Deere for Farm Products) as trade tensions ease. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries remaining in place despite US court rulings.
BA LONG
DE LONG
"The tariffs going away is no different than major regulations going away it helps the small guys always far more importantly than it does the the bigger players." Large caps can finance their way through trade wars or shift supply chains; small caps cannot. The removal of tariffs disproportionately improves margins and survival rates for small businesses, which the Russell 2000 tracks. LONG Small Caps as the primary beneficiaries of regulatory/tariff relief. If the President enacts new, short-term tariffs via different legal avenues (like Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act mentioned).
IWM LONG
"I think he will become increasingly... act unilaterally... and more acrimonious as the year goes on... you have volatility in the markets." The speaker predicts that losing in court will force the President to use erratic Executive Orders to govern. This shift from legislative process to unilateral action creates unpredictability, raising the risk premium (volatility) in markets. LONG Volatility (via VXX or similar hedges) to protect against political instability. Markets may ignore political noise if corporate earnings remain robust (the "gridlock is good" counter-argument).
VXX LONG
"We're in a serious solvency crisis... the budget deficits around, let's call it two trillion." While discussing the loss of tariff revenue, Casey highlights the massive structural deficit ($2T). A "solvency crisis" combined with high deficits is the textbook macro argument for holding hard assets like Gold to hedge against currency debasement. LONG Gold as a hedge against sovereign debt risks. Deflationary pressures or a strengthening US Dollar.
GLD LONG
21:00
Feb 23
Feb 23
21:00
Feb 20
Feb 20
21:15
Feb 19
Feb 19
ARCH
CEIX
QQQ
XLK
AIA
▾
Gave argues the only way for the US to compete with China's industrial base is to lower electricity costs rapidly, likely by burning coal. He suggests watching US coal stocks: "If the US coal stocks start... really ripping... that will be a sign." Environmental dogmas are shifting due to economic necessity. If the US pivots to "cheap energy" over "green energy" to re-industrialize, domestic coal producers will see volume and multiple expansion, similar to the recent gold miner rally. WATCH/LONG US Coal producers as a proxy for US industrial policy shifts. US policy remains strictly ESG-focused; natural gas prices remain too low to justify coal switch.
ARCH LONG
CEIX LONG
BTU LONG
Gave notes that Asian capital (specifically from Korea, Japan, and China) has historically funded US deficits and bought US tech stocks (Microsoft, Amazon), but this trend is reversing due to tax incentives for repatriation and a strengthening Yuan/Yen. If Asian investors stop recycling their trade surpluses into US assets to bring money home, the marginal buyer for US large-cap tech disappears. This liquidity drain coincides with high valuations, creating a setup for underperformance. SHORT US Tech/Growth as capital flows reverse back to the East. AI mania continues to drive flows regardless of foreign liquidity; US rates drop faster than expected.
QQQ SHORT
XLK SHORT
Gave states, "The trend of Asian outperformance... Asian currency appreciation... has started." He highlights Korea's tax code change favoring domestic investment and the Yuan's appreciation. A stronger currency combined with government incentives to invest domestically creates a "double engine" for returns in Asian equities (currency gain + asset price gain). Korea (EWY) is specifically highlighted as undervalued with policy tailwinds. LONG Broad Asia or Korea specifically to capture the repatriation of capital. Global recession dampens export demand; geopolitical flare-ups in the Taiwan Strait.
AIA LONG
EEMA LONG
EWY LONG
Gave identifies Brazil as his #1 pick for the next 5-10 years, noting that Latin American interest rates are set to fall 150-200 basis points, and the US has implicitly guaranteed the region's solvency (e.g., bailing out Argentina) to keep China out. Falling interest rates in Brazil (from high levels) historically lead to massive equity rallies (consumers buy cars/homes). Combined with a "Monroe Doctrine" put option from the US, the risk premium for LatAm assets is collapsing. LONG Brazil and Latin America for rate-cut sensitivity and geopolitical safety. Fiscal indiscipline in Brazil; commodity price collapse.
EWZ LONG
ILF LONG
Gave believes being long semiconductors today is a bet that "China won't crack the code," which he views as a "terrible bet" given China is pouring unlimited capital and talent into the sector. The semiconductor trade is crowded and relies on infinite demand. However, China is rapidly increasing supply (commoditizing older chips first), and new AI software (like DeepSeek) is proving to be more efficient, requiring fewer chips than forecasted. AVOID US Semiconductors due to looming supply gluts from China and efficiency gains in software. US export controls successfully cripple China's progress; AI hardware demand outpaces all efficiency gains.
SOXX AVOID
SMH AVOID
Gave predicts the Japanese Yen (and Korean Won) will appreciate as the "deflationary black hole" of weak Asian currencies closes. As capital repatriates to Asia and the US dollar weakens due to deficits, the Yen is the primary beneficiary of the unwinding "carry trade" and valuation mean reversion. LONG Yen as a currency play against the USD. Bank of Japan refuses to tighten policy; US rates remain higher for longer.
FXY LONG
Gave notes that farm productivity in the emerging world is currently very low but is "going through the roof," leading to increased supply. Higher global agricultural productivity leads to structural oversupply of soft commodities, capping price upside even in a general commodity bull market. AVOID Agricultural Commodities. Severe weather events (droughts/floods) disrupting global supply chains.
DBA AVOID
21:00
Feb 18
Feb 18
BEP
BIP
CCJ
PLD
ETN
▾
Wellum states AI and digitization are driving energy demand growth of 2-3% annually, which utilities are struggling to meet. He explicitly names Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), Cameco (CCJ), Prologis (PLD), Eaton (ETN), and Schneider Electric (SBGSY). Big Tech is bypassing regulated utilities to build their own power plants (nuclear/renewables) to feed data centers. This benefits unregulated power producers (Brookfield), uranium suppliers (Cameco), and the "pick and shovel" providers of electrical componentry (Eaton/Schneider) and data center real estate (Prologis). LONG. These are infrastructure plays on the AI capex cycle that possess hard assets and inflation protection. High valuations in the sector; regulatory pushback on energy consumption.
BEP LONG
BIP LONG
CCJ LONG
PLD LONG
ETN LONG
SBGSY LONG
Wellum argues the market has indiscriminately sold off service companies due to AI fears. He is buying ServiceNow (NOW) and likes Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Burford Capital (BUR). Not all service companies will be replaced by LLMs. Companies with proprietary, patent-protected data (Thomson Reuters' Westlaw), high switching costs (ServiceNow), or those requiring massive balance sheets for litigation finance (Burford) have moats that AI cannot easily replicate. LONG. These are value plays where the market has wrongly priced in "AI obsolescence." AI capabilities accelerating faster than expected, breaching these perceived moats.
NOW LONG
TRI LONG
BUR LONG
Wellum explicitly singles out Adobe: "You get a company like maybe Adobe... there's no question that they're going to be under a lot of pressure." Unlike the companies with proprietary data moats, Adobe's creative software model is viewed as highly vulnerable to Generative AI disruption, where newcomers can replicate outputs without the legacy capital intensity. AVOID. The speaker views the business model as fundamentally compromised by AI. Adobe successfully integrates AI to retain dominance (Firefly, etc.), proving the bearish thesis wrong.
ADBE AVOID
Wellum notes Gold is trading around $4,900 (in this 2026 timeline) and calls the bull market "structural." He mentions owning Royal Gold (RGLD) which, in this timeline, has acquired Sandstorm Gold. Governments globally are running massive deficits (military spending, social welfare) with debt-to-GDP over 100%. Fiscal discipline is politically impossible, making currency devaluation the only exit path. This creates a perpetual tailwind for hard assets. LONG. However, Wellum advises trimming if position sizing exceeds 25% of the portfolio to manage risk. A sudden return to balanced budgets or aggressive deflationary policies (highly unlikely per speaker).
GLD LONG
RGLD LONG
Wellum discusses the high tariff environment and explicitly says they have "tried to avoid... Magna" and other Canadian auto parts companies. The US administration is aggressively reshoring manufacturing. Cross-border supply chains, particularly in the auto sector, are vulnerable to tariffs and trade friction. Companies manufacturing in Canada for export to the US face margin compression. AVOID. Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds are too strong for cross-border auto suppliers. Tariffs are repealed or specific exemptions are granted for Canadian auto parts.
MGA AVOID
21:00
Feb 17
Feb 17
SILJ
GDXJ
PAAS
COPX
FCX
▾
Silver is trading above $50/oz, but miners have all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $15/oz. However, the mining sector is only 1% of global equities (vs. 12% at prior peaks). The market is pricing miners as if metal prices will revert to historical lows. Because they haven't reverted, these companies are now printing free cash flow with margins comparable to Google or Nvidia. This disconnect must close via a massive repricing of the equities. Long Junior Silver and Gold Miners (SILJ/GDXJ) and high-margin operators (PAAS) to capture the "margin expansion" trade. A deflationary crash that drags down all equities, including profitable miners.
SILJ LONG
GDXJ LONG
PAAS LONG
While the market hypes "Rare Earths," Costa argues the real supply crunch is in "scale" metals like Copper, Zinc, and Nickel. Supply is stagnant, and discovery rates are low. The "Green Transition" and AI infrastructure build-out require massive amounts of base metals. Unlike niche minerals, these markets are deep and liquid. The lack of new mines coming online means prices must stay elevated to incentivize production, directly benefiting established producers. Long Copper and Base Metal Miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand for base metals.
COPX LONG
FCX LONG
VALE LONG
Costa explicitly states, "Why are we giving this such emphasis... Rare earth is not rare." He notes there are too many players focusing on a small, niche market. The sector has become a "speculative bubble" driven by narrative rather than economic geology. Most deposits are uneconomic, and the market size doesn't justify the number of companies. Capital will likely be destroyed here compared to base metals. Avoid Rare Earth miners and ETFs. A specific geopolitical ban by China could temporarily spike prices due to panic hoarding.
REMX AVOID
MP AVOID
Political risk in Latin America is shifting. Costa notes positive changes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, and emphasizes that the US government is now incentivized to support these jurisdictions for supply chain security. Investors historically applied a massive "jurisdiction discount" to LatAm assets due to fear of nationalization. As the US "friend-shores" mining supply chains, this risk premium will evaporate, causing a repricing of Brazilian and broader LatAm equities. Long Brazil (EWZ) and Latin America (ILF) as a play on resource-rich, improving jurisdictions. Reversal of political trends back toward extreme resource nationalism or socialism.
EWZ LONG
ILF LONG
The US fiscal situation (interest payments at 4-5% of GDP) forces the government to spend, regardless of Fed policy. The DXY (Dollar Index) is sitting on critical support. The only way to manage the debt burden without default is currency debasement (financial repression). A breakdown in the DXY triggers the "second leg" of the commodity and Emerging Market bull run. Short the US Dollar (via UUP or futures). A global liquidity crisis (flight to safety) which typically spikes the USD temporarily.
UUP SHORT
21:00
Feb 13
Feb 13
CCJ
DNN
NXE
PALAF
FCX
▾
"The best buy in the space is likely Kamico [Cameco]... risk-to-reward continues to favor Kamico... But speculators can certainly look to the development stage companies, the Dennisens [Denison], the Paladins, the Nextgens." The uranium market has matured into long-term contracting ($90/lb), which stabilizes revenue for major producers (Cameco), making them the "safe" bet. However, this capital stability eventually lowers the cost of funding for developers (Denison, NextGen, Paladin), offering high-beta upside for risk-tolerant investors. LONG (Core position in CCJ; Speculative allocation to DNN/NXE/PALAF). Nuclear accidents or a sudden reversal in global energy policy regarding nuclear adoption.
CCJ LONG
DNN LONG
NXE LONG
PALAF LONG
"The market underestimates the value of long lived deposits that are already in production... Copper over the next 10 years, I think, is an absolute no-brainer." New mines are impossible to permit quickly (e.g., the Resolution deposit has been stuck for 28 years). Therefore, the only way to capture the "unbelievable" demand from electrification and developing nations is to own the incumbents who already have producing assets. The supply gap cannot be bridged by new supply, forcing prices up. LONG (Focus on major producers with long-life reserves). Global recession reducing industrial demand; continued "social take" (taxes/royalties) eroding miner margins.
FCX LONG
RIO LONG
BHP LONG
SCCO LONG
"The cost of producing rare earths in China has gone up by 30% in 18 months... hence the sales price for rare earth is going up." China dominates the sector and sets the floor price. As their costs rise (environmental cleanup/labor), the global price floor rises. This improves the economics for non-China developers. (Note: Rule specifically likes Brazilian deposits, but MP and Lynas are the primary liquid proxies for non-China production). WATCH (Rule warns to "avoid the space entirely" unless highly risk-tolerant, but the macro tailwind favors non-China producers). High failure rate of juniors; China could artificially lower prices again to bankrupt competitors.
MP WATCH
LYSDY WATCH
21:00
Feb 12
Feb 12
LMT
NOC
PPA
RTX
GEV
▾
"The defense industry is funding a lot of these companies, doing projects with a lot of these companies... established defense companies." + "Government is intricately involved... it reminds me of the East India Company... backed by the royal family." The "Orbital Economy" is not just a commercial venture; it is a national security imperative. The US government will funnel capital through its "Primes" (Prime Contractors) to build the "Golden Dome" and secure orbital dominance. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX Corp (RTX) are the primary conduits for this government spending. LONG. These are the "picks and shovels" of the militarization of space, backed by guaranteed government contracts. Budget cuts or political shifts reducing defense spending; failure of legacy primes to innovate against agile startups.
LMT LONG
NOC LONG
RTX LONG
"People are better off in the public markets probably buying a diversified mix of things acknowledging that nobody's going to be able to map who the winners and losers are." Because the sector has "valuation risk" and many startups have no revenue, picking individual winners is dangerous (binary outcomes). The safest way to capture the "Sector Lift" from a potential 2026 SpaceX IPO and the general AI/Space trend is through broad Aerospace & Defense ETFs. LONG. A diversified basket mitigates the risk of single-stock blowups while capturing the macro tailwind. Broad market downturns; sector rotation out of industrials.
PPA LONG
ITA LONG
"We have energy issues on Earth... gas turbines are now in back order basically... until 2030." While the long-term vision is space-based solar, the immediate reality is a desperate scramble for terrestrial power to fuel AI data centers. A backlog until 2030 for gas turbines implies massive pricing power and revenue visibility for the dominant turbine manufacturers. GE Vernova (GEV) is the market leader in this specific hardware. LONG. A direct play on the "energy scarcity" theme mentioned as the bottleneck for AI. Regulatory shifts against fossil fuels; supply chain inability to fulfill the backlog.
GEV LONG
"Companies like Elon Musk, SpaceX have demonstrated that hey maybe you can have reusable rocket launches... it's kind of like owning a toll road to space." SpaceX is private (for now), making it inaccessible to most public investors. To play the "Toll Road" thesis—where launch providers charge rent for access to the orbital economy—investors must look to the next best pure-play competitor with proven launch capabilities. Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the only other entity with a consistent launch cadence and a growing "Space Systems" (satellite manufacturing) division. LONG. It serves as the public market proxy for the "reusable launch" and "orbital infrastructure" thesis. Launch failures; capital intensity; SpaceX dominance crushing competitors.
RKLB LONG
21:30
Feb 11
Feb 11
GLD
SLV
GDX
GDXJ
SIL
▾
"I believe Trey that the US dollar over 10 years will likely lose 75% of its purchasing power... the nominal price of gold... likely mirrors the deterioration." Precious metals act as the inverse of the dollar. If the denominator (USD) collapses due to debt and deficits, the numerator (Gold/Silver price) must rise significantly to maintain real value. Essential long-term hold to preserve purchasing power against currency debasement. Short-term volatility and cyclical corrections (as seen after the Jan 2026 spike).
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
"I sold my silver... Don't buy the stuff when it's up by 20% in a short period of time. Buy it when it's off 20 or 25% in a short period of time." The market experienced a "hockey stick" parabolic move in early 2026. Rule sold into this strength. The actionable trade now is to wait for the inevitable correction to re-enter, rather than chasing the high. Wait for a pullback (20-25% decline) before deploying fresh capital. The price could continue to run higher (FOMO), leaving the investor on the sidelines.
SLV WATCH
"I thought temporarily that the silver stocks represented better value than the silver... over the next 10 years I am very very very bullish precious metals equities." Miners act as a leveraged play on the underlying metal. If the long-term bull market in metals is intact, but the physical metal is temporarily overbought, the equities (miners) offer a value arbitrage and high beta exposure for the decade ahead. Accumulate miners as a high-upside play on the secular gold/silver bull market. Operational risks (mining costs, jurisdiction) and equity market correlation.
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
SIL LONG
"If you buy the US 10-year Treasury, it pays you what 4.1 4.2... in a currency where I believe your purchasing power is declining by 8 to 10... you're losing four points." Nominal yields are insufficient to cover real inflation/debasement. Holding long-duration government paper guarantees a loss of real purchasing power (negative real rates). Avoid long-term US Treasuries as an investment vehicle. A deflationary crash could temporarily boost Treasury prices.
TLT AVOID
21:00
Feb 10
Feb 10
DLR
PLD
SBGSY
BIP
CCJ
▾
Wellum states that data centers "have to be owned by somebody, they have to be run by somebody" and specifically names Digital Realty and Prologis as beneficiaries. The AI and robotics revolution requires physical infrastructure. While tech stocks are expensive, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own the physical server farms and logistics hubs provide a tangible way to play the digital growth theme with hard assets. LONG. These are the landlords of the AI revolution. Interest rate sensitivity affecting REIT valuations.
DLR LONG
PLD LONG
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
SBGSY LONG
BIP LONG
CSL LONG
JCI LONG
VRT LONG
PWR LONG
Wellum argues fossil fuels are "hated" but necessary, and notes a shortage of uranium because "nuclear has become back in vogue" for powering data centers (citing big tech investing in nuclear). The energy demand from AI is massive. Renewables cannot provide sufficient baseload power. Therefore, capital must flow back to traditional energy (Oil/Gas) and dense energy (Uranium) to keep the lights on for the digital economy. LONG. Contrarian play on "hated" assets that are critical for grid stability. Political/Regulatory pushback against fossil fuels; safety incidents in nuclear.
CCJ LONG
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
Wellum identifies silver as a "strategic metal" with a chronic shortage, essential for weapons, conduction, and electronics, alongside its role as a monetary debasement hedge. Silver has a dual-demand driver: industrial use (solar/AI/electronics) and monetary protection (debt/inflation). The supply-demand imbalance suggests prices must rise to incentivize new mining production. LONG. Buy the metal (SLV) or the miners (SIL) to capture the repricing. High volatility; industrial recession reducing demand.
SLV LONG
SIL LONG
Wellum suggests looking for businesses that will "profit from efficiencies" of AI, naming Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow. Beyond the chipmakers, the real value of AI lies in productivity gains. These companies are integrating AI to lower costs (Amazon), improve healthcare outcomes (Intuitive Surgical), or streamline enterprise workflows (ServiceNow), which drives margin expansion. LONG. These are the "users" of AI that will monetize the technology through efficiency. High valuations; execution risk in AI integration.
AMZN LONG
ISRG LONG
NOW LONG
Wellum acknowledges these are the core drivers of the cycle but notes, "buying it today is tougher based upon just the value because you are paying a premium." While the fundamental growth story is intact (AI demand), the valuation risk is high. These are great businesses, but the entry price requires caution or hedging (options) rather than blind buying at current levels. WATCH. Wait for a pullback or use protection strategies; do not chase blindly. Valuation compression; cyclical downturn in semi demand.
NVDA WATCH
TSM WATCH
21:00
Feb 09
Feb 09
GDX
SIL
GLD
SLV
USO
▾
Oliver states that while physical metals are attractive, the "miners... will lead on the upside in percentage terms." He explicitly names "GDX" for gold miners and "SIL" for silver miners. In a precious metals bull market, mining stocks typically offer leveraged returns relative to the underlying commodity due to fixed operating costs and expanding margins. If Gold goes to $8,500, miners should exponentially outperform. Long Gold and Silver Miners via ETFs to capture the highest percentage gains in the sector. Operational risks for mining companies (energy costs, geopolitical instability) or a failure of the underlying metals to break out.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
Oliver advises investors to "buy into the monetary metals pullback" immediately. He sets a "minimum upside" for Gold at $8,500 and sees Silver reaching "$200 minimum... more likely $300 to $500." The speaker views the current price action as a "reassertion" of the trend that began in October. The projected targets imply a multi-bagger return from current levels, driven by monetary debasement and a rotation out of financial assets. Long physical metal proxies to capture the core macro trend. A strengthening US Dollar or deflationary crash could temporarily suppress metal prices.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
Oliver predicts an "initial surge" in WTI Crude into the "$90s," noting that oil is "just now emerging" from a breakout. He argues that commodities are underpriced relative to reality and other markets. A move to the $90s represents a roughly 50% upside from the lows mentioned, acting as the first leg of a larger commodity bull run. Long Oil via ETF to profit from the re-emerging commodity uptrend. Global recession reducing energy demand or geopolitical de-escalation increasing supply.
USO LONG
Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.
DBA LONG
MOO LONG
XME LONG
Oliver calls US government debt a "category to avoid," warning of a "potential for a downside panic in price, upside spike in yields." The traditional safety of bonds is compromised by the "dire straits" of Western governments' fiscal positions. If prices panic downward, long-duration treasuries (like TLT) will suffer significant capital losses. Avoid long-duration US Treasuries; the 60/40 model is broken. A deflationary crash or "flight to safety" event could temporarily bid up bonds despite the long-term bearish thesis.
TLT AVOID
Oliver believes the US stock market is in a "topping process" and expects a "downturn that begins a major bear market" after a potential final high in the coming weeks. He explicitly advises "vacating, not entering" this asset class. The "bubble" dynamics suggest that current highs are a trap ("don't be teased by a new high") before a laborious decline. Avoid broad US equity exposure. The "melt-up" could extend longer than anticipated, or the market could remain irrational for an extended period before correcting.
SPY AVOID
21:00
Feb 06
Feb 06
GLD
XLE
SLV
BTC
USO
▾
Gold's long-term annual momentum has no broken structures. Previous bull markets (1980, 2011) saw 8-fold gains from bear market lows. If gold merely replicates the 8-fold dimension of past cycles, the target is ~$8,000–$8,500. The current pullback is non-structural and healthy. LONG. Maintain core positions for the macro move. A break in annual momentum structure (currently far below market price).
GLD LONG
Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.
XLE LONG
USO LONG
Silver recently dropped from highs to ~$71–$72, touching its 3-month moving average for the first time in months. Oliver calls this a "midpoint stumble" within a 6-month surge window. Momentum structures remain intact despite the sharp price drop. Historical precedents (1979, 2010) suggest that after this stumble, the "lid comes off," potentially driving prices to $300–$500 as it catches up to inflation-adjusted realities. LONG. The pullback is a buying opportunity before the next explosive leg in March. A sustained break below the 3-month moving average could invalidate the "stumble" thesis.
SLV LONG
Bitcoin peaked at $128,000 but momentum indicators made lower highs (divergence) and broke a 3-year structural floor at $107,000. It is now trading ~$66,000. Price follows momentum. The breakdown of long-term momentum structure indicates the bull market is over and the asset is "broken." The current level is likely just a pause before further downside, potentially targeting $20,000. SHORT / AVOID. Do not buy the dip; the structural trend has inverted. A sudden reclamation of the $107,000 level would reverse the momentum signal.
BTC SHORT
The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
The Bloomberg Commodity Index broke out above 106.50 in October and is holding the trend. Commodities are starting a second bull leg after a multi-year consolidation. This confirms a broad sector rotation out of financial assets and into hard assets. LONG. Broad commodity exposure is favored over general equities. Global recession dampening demand for industrial commodities.
DBC LONG
The S&P 500 is making highs (~6,800) but is in a long-term topping process. However, intermediate metrics suggest a push to 7,050–7,100 is needed to complete the top. A crash is not imminent. The market needs to squeeze higher to clear sentiment before a structural decline begins. Panic selling is not warranted until SPY breaks 5,400. NEUTRAL / WATCH. Upside remains limited, but shorting now is premature. A "melt-up" driven by monetary policy could extend the topping process significantly.
SPY NEUTRAL
21:30
Feb 05
Feb 05
COPX
GDX
SIL
QUAL
VTV
▾
"We're going to need that copper or gold or silver... make sure they have cash for the next year or two years in order to fulfill their drilling... margins on this business." The speaker argues that despite price volatility, the long-term fundamental demand for hard assets remains intact. He specifically points to the "business" side (drilling, margins, cash flow), implying that the best way to play this is through high-quality mining companies (Producers) with strong balance sheets rather than just the physical metal. Long basket of Copper, Gold, and Silver miners. Commodity price crashes; operational risks in mining (geopolitical, labor); rising input costs squeezing margins.
COPX LONG
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
"You have to stand back and say, 'What is my book value?'... making sure the valuations are good... find companies that have a economic moat and they have a quality around them." The speaker explicitly warns against "chasing trends" and overpaying. He advocates for a "Margin of Safety" and "Economic Moats." In ETF terms, this translates to the Quality Factor (strong balance sheets, stable earnings) and the Value Factor (low price-to-book, reasonable valuations). Long Quality and Value factors as a core portfolio defense against volatility. Value traps (cheap stocks that stay cheap); underperformance during speculative bull runs.
QUAL LONG
VTV LONG
"Red flags... they're chasing trends. So they'll have the hottest products in their portfolio... people just go in on a whim... if there's a problem, you're going to dump out of that thing right away." The speaker identifies "trend chasing" and buying the "hottest products" as a primary failure point for investors and bad advisors. This implies avoiding high-beta, momentum-driven, or "hype" strategies that lack fundamental valuation support. Avoid Momentum and Hyper-Growth strategies that ignore valuation metrics. FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) if speculative bubbles continue to inflate.
ARKK AVOID
MTUM AVOID
21:00
Feb 04
Feb 04
X
GLD
GDX
BTC
SOL
▾
Feldman argues the global narrative has shifted from "globalism to mercantilism" and "resource nationalism." He specifically highlights that "metals, the miners, the steel makers, the electricity makers" have been completely underinvested. As nations on-shore supply chains and secure their own resources (mercantilism), demand for domestic industrial inputs (Steel, Electricity, Mining) will outstrip supply due to decades of underinvestment (CAPEX starvation). Long Metals & Mining (XME), Steel (X), and Utilities/Electricity (XLU). A global recession crushing industrial demand or peace treaties that restore globalized trade efficiency.
X LONG
XME LONG
XLU LONG
Scaramucci states the US has "overpromised" on services and "undertaxed," resulting in deficits that will be paid via inflation. He notes the US dollar is down ~28% in real value over 5 years. When a government chooses inflation over default or austerity to manage debt, fiat currency debases relative to hard assets. Gold acts as the inverse of trust in the sovereign's fiscal discipline. Long Gold (GLD) and Gold Miners (GDX) as a hedge against the "systemic crisis" and fiscal dominance. A sudden return to fiscal austerity or a deflationary crash that strengthens the dollar.
GLD LONG
GDX LONG
Scaramucci says people are "searching for something outside of the matrix" due to the debt crisis. He explicitly mentions being a "big believer long-term in Bitcoin" and using "Solana and possibly Ethereum to tokenize assets." As trust in centralized institutions (Fed, Treasury) erodes, capital flees to decentralized, non-sovereign assets. Furthermore, the utility of blockchains (SOL/ETH) for 24-hour markets and tokenization provides fundamental value beyond just a store of value. Long major crypto assets (BTC, SOL, ETH) as both a debasement hedge and a technology play. Regulatory crackdowns or a "crypto winter" cycle (Scaramucci notes Bitcoin is down in the last 6 months of the discussion context).
BTC LONG
SOL LONG
ETH LONG
Feldman states he is "fully out of bonds and have been for almost a decade." Scaramucci adds that while the Treasury will pay you back, they will do so with "dollars that are worth less than the ones that you borrowed." Bonds are traditionally a "safe haven," but in an environment of financial repression (inflation > yield), they guarantee a loss of purchasing power. The "risk-free rate" has become "return-free risk." Avoid long-duration US Treasuries (TLT). A deflationary recession would make bonds attractive again as yields crash.
IEF AVOID
TLT AVOID
Scaramucci admits there is likely an AI bubble and the market is expensive (40x multiple), but explicitly states, "I do own some Nvidia." He references the 2000 tech bubble, noting that those who left tech completely missed the greatest growth engine of history. Even if a sector is overvalued, "innovation" is the only driver of equity returns. The strategy is to behave like a private equity holder: endure the volatility (even a 50% drop) to capture the long-term compounding of the category winner. Long Nvidia (NVDA) but with a stomach for high volatility. A dot-com style crash where valuations compress by 50-80% before recovering.
NVDA LONG
21:00
Feb 03
Feb 03
GLD
BTC
ETH
SOL
LINK
▾
Gold is "telling you that the world is concerned about debasement" and wants self-sovereign assets. Gold is the leading indicator for the liquidity/debasement trade. While the trade is explicitly about Bitcoin following Gold, Gold itself remains the primary signal and beneficiary of the geopolitical shift to "realpolitik" and sovereign buying. Long Gold as the established hedge against debasement that is currently breaking out. A sudden strengthening of the USD or hawkish Fed policy.
GLD LONG
Central banks doubled gold purchases in 2022, but gold prices didn't go parabolic until 2025 because the market had to work through existing sellers. Similarly, Bitcoin ETF demand (2024) vastly exceeds new supply, but price is currently capped by existing holders selling at psychological levels ($100k). Bitcoin is following Gold's exact playbook with a time lag. Once the "sell wall" from long-term holders is exhausted, the structural demand shock (ETFs + Institutions) will cause a parabolic repricing similar to Gold's recent move. Long Bitcoin as it is in the early stages of a supply-shock driven rally. Regulatory reversal or a failure of institutional adoption to sustain momentum.
BTC LONG
The broad altcoin market suffered a 50-60% drawdown last year (a hidden bear market). However, projects like Ethereum and Solana have "clear traction on stablecoins and tokenization." The recovery won't be a rising tide for all "zombie coins." Capital will concentrate into "High Quality" Layer 1s that serve as the infrastructure for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoin issuance. Long the leaders of the smart contract wars (ETH/SOL) as they emerge from the bear market. Continued regulatory hostility or failure to solve technical scaling issues (e.g., fragmentation).
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
Hougan explicitly names Chainlink as a project with "strong fundamentals" that has done really well recently alongside the broader recovery. As the market shifts toward "fundamentals" over "memes," infrastructure plays that actually facilitate the movement of data and value (Oracles) will attract institutional capital. Long LINK as a fundamental infrastructure play. Competition from newer oracle solutions or lack of value accrual to the token.
LINK LONG
"If you don't own Circle, if you don't have exposure to PayPal... you may be missing where the value accrues." The crypto thesis is evolving from just buying coins to owning the equity of companies building the rails (Stablecoins/Payments). Since Circle is not yet public, PayPal represents the regulated equity proxy for the explosion of stablecoin usage and payment modernization. Long PYPL as a "pick and shovel" play on stablecoin adoption. Margin compression in their legacy payment business or slow crypto integration.
PYPL LONG
21:00
Feb 02
Feb 02
VXUS
EFA
VWO
VTV
QUAL
▾
"We have cape ratios right now that are 40 in the United States and about mid20s in the foreign markets... I wouldn't be surprised if emerging and and developed international outperform the United States on a on a 5 to 10 year basis." Valuations are historically stretched in the US relative to the rest of the world. Mean reversion suggests that foreign equities offer a better risk-reward profile. Additionally, Roche views this as a "debasement trade," implying that if the US Dollar weakens, foreign assets (denominated in other currencies) automatically appreciate in USD terms. LONG broad international exposure (VXUS) or specific splits between Developed (EFA) and Emerging (VWO) to capture this valuation gap. The US Dollar strengthens significantly, or US tech dominance continues to justify premium valuations indefinitely.
VXUS LONG
EFA LONG
VWO LONG
"I would be much more comfortable... owning a much more diversified domestic portfolio probably tilting more towards things like value and quality... diversifying away from technology a little bit." The US market is heavily concentrated in the "Mag 7" (Tech). To mitigate "acute risks" and concentration risk without exiting the US entirely, investors should rotate into factors that have been neglected, specifically Value (VTV) and Quality (QUAL). LONG US Value and Quality factors as a defensive rotation within domestic equity allocations. Tech continues to drive all US market returns, causing Value/Quality to underperform the broad S&P 500.
VTV LONG
QUAL LONG
"Diversifying to international stocks is not so much a bet on foreign companies... It's a currency story really that you're really betting on that the dollar will be weak." Roche explicitly links international outperformance to a "weak dollar" view. If one is buying international stocks as a "double hedge" against the dollar, the direct corollary is a bearish view on the US Dollar index itself. SHORT the US Dollar (via UUP or similar proxies) to align with the thesis of currency debasement and international rotation. Geopolitical instability often drives a "flight to safety" into the US Dollar, causing it to spike regardless of fundamentals.
UUP SHORT
"You're just diversifying away from technology a little bit where you don't have this concentration risk... insulating yourself from that mag seven trade." The speaker identifies the heavy concentration in US Tech as a primary risk factor. While not explicitly shorting, the logic dictates reducing exposure to pure-play technology indices to avoid the "acute risks" of overvaluation. AVOID or underweight US Technology sectors relative to the broader market. The AI/Tech boom continues to accelerate, leading to FOMO and underperformance against the benchmark.
QQQ AVOID
XLK AVOID
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