Mish Schneider: Inflation, Recession, or Both? Watch the Dollar, Silver & Sugar
Speakers
Summary
Mish Schneider analyzes a confusing macro environment where war and inflation risks contrast with strong tech performance. She emphasizes watching price-based signals like the dollar, yields, gold/silver ratio, and sugar to discern between recession and inflation outcomes. Schneider shares conditional trade ideas in hard assets like silver, gold, natural gas, and agriculture, as well as in cryptocurrencies, while also discussing her current positions.
- Mish Schneider highlights the importance of monitoring the dollar, yields, gold/silver ratio, and sugar for macro direction.
- She is bullish on silver conditionally if the gold/silver ratio breaks below 56, signaling hyperinflation.
- She is long DBA (agriculture ETF) with a stop at 2680 as a solid hard asset trade.
- She is watching natural gas for a close above 266 to enter long via BOIL or UNNG, citing cheap valuations.
- She is monitoring gold for a break above 5000 or a hold at 4600 to buy, given fundamental tailwinds.
- She is watching Bitcoin and Ethereum for breakouts above 75k and 2400 respectively to add, citing mass adoption.
- She is already long Ethereum through Bit Mine and would add on a breakout.
- She expresses concern about the dollar weakening due to high debt and geopolitical shifts away from the petrodollar.
Trade Ideas
Buy silver if gold/silver ratio breaks 56.
If the gold/silver ratio breaks down under 56, it would signal a hyperinflation scenario and I would buy silver aggressively. The ratio has been reliable, and silver could trade up to 100.
Long DBA with a stop at 2680.
DBA (the agriculture ETF) has held support at 2680 like a rock and is trading over 27. It represents a solid trade in the hard asset space with minor risk. If it breaks 2680, I would get out.
Add to crypto if Bitcoin and Ethereum break out.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a consolidation. If Bitcoin breaks 74-75k and Ethereum breaks 23-2400, then I would add to positions because it would signal mass adoption and that cryptocurrency is here to stay.
Buy gold above 5000 or on support at 4600.
Gold is hitting resistance at 5000. If it gets over 5000, then predictions for 6000 are realistic given the debt, dollar, yields, and geopolitics. Alternatively, if it gets another trip down to 4600 and holds, that would be a buying opportunity.
Long Ethereum via Bit Mine, add on breakout.
We are already long Ethereum through Bit Mine (likely a mining stock or ETF) and have a no-loss stop. We haven't added yet, but if it breaks out, we would add to the position.
Buy natural gas ETFs if price closes above 266.
Natural gas is very cheap and doesn't make sense at current prices. If the May contract closes above 266, I would start a position in BOIL or UNNG (leveraged natural gas ETFs). Then if it gaps higher, I would add. I would exit if it takes out the recent lows.
