Jonathan Wellum 1.9 43 ideas

Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.

Wellum explicitly advises owning gold and silver, citing US debt issues and structural problems as key reasons, with numbers showing $63 trillion in deficits plus unfunded liabilities vs. $16 trillion GDP growth (2010-2025). The US fiscal trajectory is "intractable" and necessitates a reset, making precious metals a hedge outside the fiat system; silver also faces supply deficits from industrial demand. LONG for wealth preservation and as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical tensions. Short-term price volatility or unexpected policy interventions that temporarily suppress prices.

Wellum explicitly mentions Enbridge and TC Energy as companies he looks at, noting they are "massive North American players" making inroads in the US despite Canadian regulatory challenges. These firms benefit from long-term energy demand from safer regions, with attractive cash flow yields and expansion opportunities in the US where economics are more favorable. LONG because they are well-positioned to capitalize on sustained energy needs and supply chain shifts over 3-5 years. Persistent political and regulatory hurdles in Canada could limit growth or increase capital costs.

Wellum states AI and digitization are driving energy demand growth of 2-3% annually, which utilities are struggling to meet. He explicitly names Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), Cameco (CCJ), Prologis (PLD), Eaton (ETN), and Schneider Electric (SBGSY). Big Tech is bypassing regulated utilities to build their own power plants (nuclear/renewables) to feed data centers. This benefits unregulated power producers (Brookfield), uranium suppliers (Cameco), and the "pick and shovel" providers of electrical componentry (Eaton/Schneider) and data center real estate (Prologis). LONG. These are infrastructure plays on the AI capex cycle that possess hard assets and inflation protection. High valuations in the sector; regulatory pushback on energy consumption.

Wellum explicitly singles out Adobe: "You get a company like maybe Adobe... there's no question that they're going to be under a lot of pressure." Unlike the companies with proprietary data moats, Adobe's creative software model is viewed as highly vulnerable to Generative AI disruption, where newcomers can replicate outputs without the legacy capital intensity. AVOID. The speaker views the business model as fundamentally compromised by AI. Adobe successfully integrates AI to retain dominance (Firefly, etc.), proving the bearish thesis wrong.

Wellum argues the market has indiscriminately sold off service companies due to AI fears. He is buying ServiceNow (NOW) and likes Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Burford Capital (BUR). Not all service companies will be replaced by LLMs. Companies with proprietary, patent-protected data (Thomson Reuters' Westlaw), high switching costs (ServiceNow), or those requiring massive balance sheets for litigation finance (Burford) have moats that AI cannot easily replicate. LONG. These are value plays where the market has wrongly priced in "AI obsolescence." AI capabilities accelerating faster than expected, breaching these perceived moats.

Wellum notes Gold is trading around $4,900 (in this 2026 timeline) and calls the bull market "structural." He mentions owning Royal Gold (RGLD) which, in this timeline, has acquired Sandstorm Gold. Governments globally are running massive deficits (military spending, social welfare) with debt-to-GDP over 100%. Fiscal discipline is politically impossible, making currency devaluation the only exit path. This creates a perpetual tailwind for hard assets. LONG. However, Wellum advises trimming if position sizing exceeds 25% of the portfolio to manage risk. A sudden return to balanced budgets or aggressive deflationary policies (highly unlikely per speaker).

Wellum discusses the high tariff environment and explicitly says they have "tried to avoid... Magna" and other Canadian auto parts companies. The US administration is aggressively reshoring manufacturing. Cross-border supply chains, particularly in the auto sector, are vulnerable to tariffs and trade friction. Companies manufacturing in Canada for export to the US face margin compression. AVOID. Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds are too strong for cross-border auto suppliers. Tariffs are repealed or specific exemptions are granted for Canadian auto parts.