Steven Feldman 1.4 5 ideas

Feldman argues the global narrative has shifted from "globalism to mercantilism" and "resource nationalism." He specifically highlights that "metals, the miners, the steel makers, the electricity makers" have been completely underinvested. As nations on-shore supply chains and secure their own resources (mercantilism), demand for domestic industrial inputs (Steel, Electricity, Mining) will outstrip supply due to decades of underinvestment (CAPEX starvation). Long Metals & Mining (XME), Steel (X), and Utilities/Electricity (XLU). A global recession crushing industrial demand or peace treaties that restore globalized trade efficiency.

Feldman states he is "fully out of bonds and have been for almost a decade." Scaramucci adds that while the Treasury will pay you back, they will do so with "dollars that are worth less than the ones that you borrowed." Bonds are traditionally a "safe haven," but in an environment of financial repression (inflation > yield), they guarantee a loss of purchasing power. The "risk-free rate" has become "return-free risk." Avoid long-duration US Treasuries (TLT). A deflationary recession would make bonds attractive again as yields crash.