Jonathan Wellum: Ignore the Headlines — Invest In What’s Inevitable
Summary
- Jonathan Wellum advocates for a long-term investment horizon (3-5+ years), focusing on "inevitable" macroeconomic shifts rather than reacting to "imminent" headlines like wars or price spikes.
- The war in Iran may accelerate pre-existing supply chain vulnerabilities, creating opportunities for energy exports from safer regions like Canada and the US, and bolstering uranium demand for energy security.
- Canada is resource-rich (oil, gas, uranium, gold, copper, etc.) but suffers from capital flight—estimated ~$700 billion not invested from 2015-2025 due to regulatory hurdles and poor political leadership favoring a "woke green agenda."
- Specific companies highlighted for long-term investment: Enbridge and TC Energy as North American energy infrastructure players; Kamico (Cameco) as a disciplined uranium miner; Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as quality mining/royalty companies.
- Gold and silver are recommended as essential long-term holdings due to US fiscal deterioration: $63 trillion in combined deficits and unfunded liabilities vs. $16 trillion GDP growth over 16 years (2010-2025), signaling systemic risk to the fiat system.
- Silver faces structural supply deficits exacerbated by demand from AI, electrification, and military applications (e.g., missiles), supporting higher long-term prices.
- TSX performance is driven by materials and energy sectors, but banks (>30% of index) may stagnate due to high consumer debt (~180% debt-to-income), flat per-capita GDP, and real estate liquidity issues (40% of private funds gated).
- Management due diligence is critical; Wellum favors companies with operating history, capital discipline (e.g., hurdle rates), and alignment with other smart investors, avoiding junior explorers without proven track records.
- Gold's recent volatility is seen as a buying opportunity for disciplined, dollar-cost-averaging investors, with short-term price dislocations attributed to liquidity needs or market sentiment.
Trade Ideas
Wellum explicitly mentions Enbridge and TC Energy as companies he looks at, noting they are "massive North American players" making inroads in the US despite Canadian regulatory challenges. These firms benefit from long-term energy demand from safer regions, with attractive cash flow yields and expansion opportunities in the US where economics are more favorable. LONG because they are well-positioned to capitalize on sustained energy needs and supply chain shifts over 3-5 years. Persistent political and regulatory hurdles in Canada could limit growth or increase capital costs.
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
Wellum explicitly advises owning gold and silver, citing US debt issues and structural problems as key reasons, with numbers showing $63 trillion in deficits plus unfunded liabilities vs. $16 trillion GDP growth (2010-2025). The US fiscal trajectory is "intractable" and necessitates a reset, making precious metals a hedge outside the fiat system; silver also faces supply deficits from industrial demand. LONG for wealth preservation and as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical tensions. Short-term price volatility or unexpected policy interventions that temporarily suppress prices.
