Gold Is Flashing a Warning
Speakers
Mike McGlone
— Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
Summary
Mike McGlone warns that gold's surge signals a warning for risk assets, expects gold to underperform for years, crude oil to decline, and stock market volatility to rise. He is cautious on commodities overall, arguing against a broad supercycle and highlighting deflationary forces from technology.
- Gold's volatility relative to the S&P 500 is at extremes last seen before the 2008 crisis.
- McGlone expects gold and silver to underperform for years after their rally.
- Crude oil is expected to fall from $100/barrel due to US supply growth and demand destruction.
- Stock market volatility is considered too low and likely to rise.
- McGlone doubts a broad commodity supercycle, citing elasticity and tech substitution.
- He sees deflationary forces from technology, EVs, and AI as longer-term trends.
- Metals are heavily dependent on stock market continuation, making them risky.
- The dollar remains dominant, and dedollarization is viewed as a fallacy.
Trade Ideas
Stock volatility likely to increase
Stock market volatility is too low relative to the spikes seen in gold and crude oil. Historically, such divergences lead to a rise in equity volatility. McGlone makes this a key theme for the year and anticipates a pickup in volatility, which would be negative for risk assets.
Crude oil expected lower
Crude oil is peaking around $100/barrel but the forward curve shows backwardation, with December crude at $81. The US is a net exporter with low break-even costs (~$55/barrel), so high prices will encourage supply and destroy demand. McGlone expects prices to fall significantly, possibly to $50, and sees a potential Trump administration pushing for lower energy prices before midterms.
Gold likely peaked, avoid
Gold has reached extreme valuation levels relative to Treasuries, moving averages, and other commodities. After a massive rally, gold volatility is unusually high compared to the S&P 500, a warning sign. McGlone expects years of underperformance and advises lightening up positions. He explicitly says gold has peaked and that buying here is risky.
Up Next
This Wealthion video, published May 19, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing VIX, WTI, GLD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: VIX, WTI, GLD