Gold Is Flashing a Warning
Спикеры
Mike McGlone
— Старший стратег по сырьевым товарам, Bloomberg Intelligence
Mike McGlone warns that gold's surge signals a warning for risk assets, expects gold to underperform for years, crude oil to decline, and stock market volatility to rise. He is cautious on commodities overall, arguing against a broad supercycle and highlighting deflationary forces from technology.
- Gold's volatility relative to the S&P 500 is at extremes last seen before the 2008 crisis.
- McGlone expects gold and silver to underperform for years after their rally.
- Crude oil is expected to fall from $100/barrel due to US supply growth and demand destruction.
- Stock market volatility is considered too low and likely to rise.
- McGlone doubts a broad commodity supercycle, citing elasticity and tech substitution.
- He sees deflationary forces from technology, EVs, and AI as longer-term trends.
- Metals are heavily dependent on stock market continuation, making them risky.
- The dollar remains dominant, and dedollarization is viewed as a fallacy.
Идеи
Stock volatility likely to increase
Stock market volatility is too low relative to the spikes seen in gold and crude oil. Historically, such divergences lead to a rise in equity volatility. McGlone makes this a key theme for the year and anticipates a pickup in volatility, which would be negative for risk assets.
Crude oil expected lower
Crude oil is peaking around $100/barrel but the forward curve shows backwardation, with December crude at $81. The US is a net exporter with low break-even costs (~$55/barrel), so high prices will encourage supply and destroy demand. McGlone expects prices to fall significantly, possibly to $50, and sees a potential Trump administration pushing for lower energy prices before midterms.
Gold likely peaked, avoid
Gold has reached extreme valuation levels relative to Treasuries, moving averages, and other commodities. After a massive rally, gold volatility is unusually high compared to the S&P 500, a warning sign. McGlone expects years of underperformance and advises lightening up positions. He explicitly says gold has peaked and that buying here is risky.
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This Wealthion video, published May 19, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing VIX, WTI, GLD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: VIX, WTI, GLD