All Sources✓
YouTube✓
Twitter✓
Reddit✓
Substack✓
Insider✓
News✓
Loading...
0 selected
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
13:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
XLE
NKE
▾
Energy sector unlikely to regain market weight.
The energy sector's weight in the S&P 500 has declined from around 30% in 1980 to about 4% today and is unlikely to ever return to even 10% again, indicating long-term structural headwinds and unattractiveness for investment.
XLE AVOID
Nike's investment thesis is broken.
Nike's financial performance has deteriorated with declining direct sales and gross margins, and strategic missteps such as avoiding Amazon, making it a poor investment despite the brand not being tarnished.
NKE AVOID
13:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
MSFT
EEM
XLK
▾
Microsoft stock is back to March 2024 lows despite the business's success, acting as a public proxy for OpenAI. The narrative has soured, partly due to OpenAI being "tarnished" and the shift in its business model from high-margin cash generation to significant capital expenditure and borrowing for AI infrastructure. As a Mag 7 "hyperscaler," Microsoft is pot-committed to massive AI spend, which the market fears will pressure future margins and free cash flow. Its stock performance is disconnected from its current earnings. WATCH because it represents a key battleground in the AI trade. Its current valuation may price in significant pessimism, but the stock needs a catalyst to change the negative narrative surrounding capital intensity. The company successfully demonstrates that its AI investments will generate high returns without severely damaging profitability.
MSFT WATCH
Consensus estimates for 2026 EPS growth in Emerging Markets are +35%, a massive outlier. This is driven by the index's heavy weighting in semiconductors (21%, including TSMC, Samsung) and technology (32%). International stocks are also less exposed to the struggling software sector. The EM index has reinvented itself from a resources/energy proxy to a tech/semi leader. Combined with shareholder-friendly reforms in countries like Japan and Korea focusing on earnings growth and valuation, this creates a compelling fundamental and technical setup. LONG because EM offers exposure to the working AI/hardware theme through semis, benefits from a potential rotation to value/international diversification, and is supported by positive technical charts suggesting a continuation higher. A sharp downturn in global semiconductor demand or a reversal of the US dollar strength.
EEM LONG
The software sector (IGV) is in a "bloodbath," failing to hold bounces while the broader market rallies. There is a historic 2-day divergence where the S&P is up >3% and software is down >5%. The narrative is that AI tools will disrupt these businesses, and fears are amplified by stories like Anthropic finding thousands of bugs in published software. The market is pricing in a severe reduction in the terminal value of software companies due to AI disruption, ignoring current record earnings. This creates a negative feedback loop of selling. The sector is to be AVOIDED because the negative psychology and narrative are overpowering strong fundamentals, with no clear floor in sight. The extreme relative underperformance indicates a structural re-rating, not a temporary correction. Software companies demonstrate several quarters of sustained earnings growth that convince the market the disruption threat is overblown.
XLK AVOID
05:51
Apr 09
Apr 09
SPY
BIL
▾
The speaker cited data showing the S&P 500 has been profitable approximately 81% of the time over all 3-year rolling periods since 1871. For a medium-term (3-year) goal like a down payment, mixing the S&P 500 with cash provides a high probability of positive returns while acknowledging and planning for the ~19% chance of a drawdown. WATCH the S&P 500 as a viable component for medium-term investing, but its use requires an explicit, upfront acceptance of the risk of capital loss within the timeframe. The investment horizon coinciding with one of the historical ~19% of 3-year periods that resulted in a loss.
SPY WATCH
The speaker presented a chart showing that in a scenario where interest rates rise 300 basis points, the price of a 3-month T-bill would only fall 0.08%, compared to a 10-year Treasury bond falling ~20%. For the "safe" anchor portion of a portfolio, especially for someone near retirement, avoiding duration risk is paramount. Short-term Treasuries provide yield with minimal interest rate sensitivity. LONG on 3-month T-bills as the preferred instrument for the low-risk sleeve of a portfolio because they effectively serve as ballast with negligible price volatility in a rising rate environment. A prolonged period of rapidly declining interest rates, where longer-duration bonds would significantly outperform.
BIL LONG
13:01
Apr 08
Apr 08
MU
HD
DASH
▾
Micron was cited as the #3 contributor to holding up the S&P 500 this year, offsetting Mag 7 weakness. It was up 60% at the time of the cited analysis and its market cap was noted as being around $426 billion. Its massive outperformance and large market cap mean its price action has a material, counterbalancing impact on the broader index. The discussion frames it as a key positive actor in the current market dynamic, making it a high-signal stock to monitor for understanding market resilience. A reversal in its sharp uptrend could remove a key support for the broader market.
MU WATCH
Home Depot stock is down ~27% from its highs and is suggested to be an accurate proxy for overall housing activity. The business is described as "not faring very well." With the typical U.S. home being 44 years old and needing work, but high mortgage rates and prices locking out new buyers who would need to finance renovations, housing activity is in a standstill ("hibernation" or "debacle"). The stock's poor performance is viewed as justified ("it should be destroyed") given the current dismal fundamentals in the housing market. A sudden drop in mortgage rates or a new financial product to fund renovations could stimulate activity.
HD AVOID
DoorDash utterly dominated the US food delivery market, growing from a small share in 2016 to ~70% by 2025, while GrubHub collapsed from ~70% to ~10%. This represents a near-total victory in a major consumer market segment, suggesting superior execution, partnerships, or strategy. The extreme market share capture makes it a dominant force worth watching, though the speakers note its stock has done "absolutely nothing" since IPO, creating a dissonance between business success and shareholder returns. Regulatory scrutiny, changes in restaurant/consumer fees, or a new competitive paradigm could threaten its dominance.
DASH WATCH
21:00
Apr 07
Apr 07
XBI
IBB
JPM
NFLX
▾
Speaker presents charts showing the Biotech ETFs (XBI - equal-weighted, IBB - cap-weighted) are "acting great technically" and consolidating, with the XBI/IBB ratio suggesting further relative upside for XBI. The improving technical posture, after a prolonged period of weakness, indicates building momentum and a potential breakout. LONG on biotech ETFs, with a preference for the equal-weighted XBI based on the ratio chart. A broader market sell-off negating the sector's technical strength.
XBI LONG
IBB LONG
Speaker highlights JP Morgan's "fortress balance sheet," consistent ~20% Return on Tangible Common Equity, strategic acquisitions of failed banks (e.g., First Republic), and its status as a beneficiary of industry consolidation. These factors demonstrate superior risk management, operational efficiency, and an ability to grow through crisis, creating a durable competitive advantage. LONG for long-term ownership, viewed as a core holding that doesn't need to be sold due to temporary analyst downgrades or short-term price moves. A systemic banking crisis severe enough to breach its risk management.
JPM LONG
Technical analysis shows NFLX price action "acting very well," having held a prior gap, with the next resistance at ~$120. A stop-loss is identified at $90. Fundamentals are cited as strong post-price hike. The defined technical levels ($90 stop, $120 target) create a favorable risk/reward setup (risking ~$9 to make ~$20). LONG based on the technical setup and positive fundamental backdrop. Price breaking down below the $90 support level.
NFLX LONG
21:01
Apr 06
Apr 06
BXSL
BIZD
XLF
▾
The speaker states that Blackstone's BCRED (private fund) and BXSL (public BDC) share roughly 80% of the same underlying loans, yet BXSL trades at a ~12% discount to its NAV while BCRED is marked at full NAV. This represents a clear arbitrage and indicates the public market does not trust the manager-marked NAVs of the private funds. The private fund valuations are likely inflated. An investor should avoid the private fund (BCRED) at its stated NAV when a nearly identical, more liquid, and cheaper public market alternative (BXSL) exists. Blackstone could successfully defend its marks, or the discount on BXSL could widen further if the underlying loans deteriorate.
BXSL AVOID
The speaker identifies redemption requests as the primary catalyst to watch, calling them "the lit match." A slowdown or reversal of inflows forces private credit funds to sell assets and confront realistic valuations. Private credit relies on constant inflows to refinance loans and maintain inflated NAVs. Redemptions break this cycle, leading to asset sales, potential NAV write-downs, and credit rating downgrades for the underlying loans. The health of the entire private credit ecosystem is contingent on ongoing capital inflows. Elevated redemption requests are a leading indicator of mounting stress and a trigger for a broader repricing event. Inflows could re-accelerate, or funds could manage redemptions without significant NAV impairment, delaying or negating the crisis.
BIZD WATCH
The speaker asserts the core systemic risk is not in banks but in the U.S. life insurance & annuity industry, which holds ~$10 trillion in assets with thin capital buffers (~$658 billion surplus, implying ~17x leverage). This industry has significant exposure to private credit and other risky assets. If private credit reprices (due to redemptions), it could trigger downgrades and massive capital calls on insurers, exposing an opaque and undercapitalized offshore reinsurance backstop. The life insurance sector represents a highly leveraged, systemic "bomb" linked to the private credit "fuse." Its stability is critical and warrants close monitoring due to its scale and hidden leverage. Regulatory intervention or a Fed backstop could stabilize the sector, or losses in private credit could be contained and absorbed without triggering insurer insolvencies.
XLF WATCH
13:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
DAL
OBDC
▾
Josh Brown
CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Medium-term, tied to oil price dynamics and travel demand trends.
Josh Brown explicitly stated he bought shares in Delta Air Lines because it has its own refinery and is "the best airline." Delta's ownership of a refinery provides a partial hedge against high jet fuel prices, enhancing resilience during oil volatility. If oil prices stabilize or decline, airlines could see significant upside. LONG position as Delta is positioned as a resilient play within the airlines sector amid geopolitical and oil price uncertainty. Prolonged high oil prices or further escalation in the Middle East could increase operational costs despite the refinery advantage.
DAL LONG
Dan Greenhaus
Financial Analyst / Investor
Medium to long-term, dependent on credit cycle developments and liquidity conditions.
Dan Greenhaus highlighted that publicly traded BDCs like OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corp) are trading at a 25% discount to NAV, while private BDCs are illiquid and marked at higher values. This discount may present a valuation opportunity if private credit concerns are overstated, as redemptions in private funds have been modest with high shareholder retention and ongoing inflows. WATCH as a potential long opportunity if the discount narrows or fundamentals stabilize, but requires close monitoring due to underlying risks in the private credit sector, especially software loans. Worsening defaults in private credit, particularly in software exposures, could further depress valuations and NAV.
OBDC WATCH
17:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
NVDA
MSFT
META
AXP
▾
Duncan Hill stated he has "been buying some more Nvidia" because "it's at a cheaper valuation than it has been in a very long time right now based on their earnings growth and how much the stock has fallen off." The stock's decline has improved its valuation metric relative to its earnings growth trajectory, making it more attractive. LONG based on a valuation argument following a significant price decline. The competitive landscape in AI chips could shift (e.g., threats from alternatives like Anthropic affecting its partner OpenAI, in which MSFT is invested).
NVDA LONG
Ben Carlson stated Microsoft is down about a third, is a "big high quality compan[y]," and that the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." The stock has experienced a significant drawdown (~33%), placing it in the context of a broader MAG7 selloff, but the speaker views it as a high-quality business whose long-term prospects remain intact. LONG because the drawdown presents a high-probability entry point for a long-term investor willing to tolerate further near-term volatility. The technology cycle could change, preventing these "behemoths" from recovering as they have in past cycles. The stock could fall further from current levels.
MSFT LONG
Ben Carlson stated Meta is down about a third and included it with Microsoft as a "big high quality compan[y]" where the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." Despite regulatory lawsuits and the failed Metaverse investment, the company's core business (Instagram) remains strong, and it has weathered significant drawdowns before (e.g., -70% post-Metaverse). LONG because the current bear market decline offers a long-term buying opportunity in a company with a proven ability to recover from major setbacks. Regulatory actions could have a material impact. The core Facebook platform is seen by some as a declining "ball and chain."
META LONG
Duncan Hill said American Express "piques my interest" and seems "pretty solid," describing it as a way to play the "K-shaped economy" or the top 10% of affluent consumers who are more resilient. The stock is down significantly (in a bear market), but the speaker views its customer base as financially resilient, potentially insulating it from broader economic slowdowns. WATCH because it is identified as an interesting, beaten-down name with a specific demographic thesis, but no explicit call to buy was made. A significant economic downturn could still impact even affluent consumers' spending and credit quality.
AXP WATCH
13:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
META
MSFT
XLF
▾
Michael Batnick explicitly stated that at current valuations, such as Facebook trading at 16 times forward earnings, if you can hold stocks like Facebook and Microsoft for a couple of years, you will make money. Valuations have compressed due to market concerns over AI investments increasing capital intensity, but this derisking creates a long-term opportunity as earnings continue to grow. LONG because the stocks are considered cheap relative to earnings potential, and historical patterns suggest rebounds after drawdowns for mega-cap tech names. AI investments may fail to generate expected returns, leading to sustained earnings pressure or further multiple contraction, especially in an economic downturn.
META LONG
MSFT LONG
Michael Batnick expressed strong concern about private credit, citing illiquidity, redemption pressures, and the potential for it to be a "disaster" if included in 401(k) plans, due to mismatched investor expectations. Private credit funds face challenges with markdowns, leverage requirements, and hot money inflows, making them risky for investors who may need liquidity, exacerbated by media scrutiny and ongoing redemption cycles. AVOID because of the high risk of capital loss, inability to access funds when needed, and structural issues that could worsen with economic stress or AI-related bankruptcies. If redemptions slow significantly and underlying asset performance stabilizes, but current dynamics indicate persistent liquidity and valuation pressures.
XLF AVOID
22:26
Mar 31
Mar 31
IGV
T
AXP
NVDA
▾
Josh Brown explicitly bought IGV (software ETF) at the low on Friday and, when asked, stated the software stock group is in "fat pitch territory." The group was in a ~35% drawdown to critical support. The market needed to see a software rebound for psychological health, and buyers returned with strong single-day moves (e.g., Meta up 7%). LONG because the severe decline in a sector with strong underlying demand creates a high-probability, high-reward entry point for the medium to long term. A market-wide crash that breaks the established support levels.
IGV LONG
Josh Brown made a case for AT&T, noting it has "a breakout coming," with $30 being obvious resistance, and that it could quickly move to $33-34 if broken. The company has transformed by shedding disastrous acquisitions (e.g., Time Warner), deleveraging, and focusing on profitable broadband and wireless businesses, making it a defensive, high-yield (~6%) play essential for AI/broadband infrastructure. WATCH for a technical breakout above $30, which would signal a new leg higher, while being paid a dividend to wait. Failure to break through $30 resistance or a return to irrational price competition in wireless.
T WATCH
Josh Brown stated he would buy AXP after a 25% decline on "no news," calling it a "fat pitch," and that you'd look back on the drop as being "for no reason." The decline is attributed to fears of "white collar displacement" from AI, not a fundamental deterioration in business, as evidenced by strong commentary from Delta Airlines about healthy high-end consumer spending. LONG because the sell-off is disproportionate to the robust underlying consumer health of its premium customer base, offering attractive valuation. A material slowdown in high-end consumer spending or credit deterioration.
AXP LONG
Josh Brown called NVIDIA the "sexiest pitch" and said if he ran any type of fund, he would be buying it, but noted that if the previous day's lows don't hold, the next 10% move is lower. The stock fell from $215 to ~$170, potentially due to algorithmic selling at breakdown levels, and now trades at a historically low multiple (15x forward earnings) despite massive projected earnings growth. WATCH for a hold of the recent low ~$160s as a critical support level; a bounce from here presents a high-reward opportunity, but a break lower suggests further downside. A break below the recent low, triggering another wave of systematic selling.
NVDA WATCH
21:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
XLE
VIX
SPY
COMP
▾
Speaker states you "never ever ever" sell energy stocks because they are your only hedge against an oil price spike, a lesson anchored in the 1990 experience. He advises being at least index weight (~4-5%). The current environment is an "all-time great oil price spike." Energy stocks are making new highs alongside oil, showing momentum. The sector was extremely underowned (~2% of S&P), and its high dividend payout offers a "money good" return versus uncertain tech reinvestment. Energy stocks are a core, non-tradeable hedge that must be held, especially during geopolitical oil shocks. The discipline is to hold through new highs. A sustained peak and reversal in oil prices, as per the 1990 analog, could end the momentum trade. A resolution to Middle East tensions could remove the crisis catalyst.
XLE LONG
Speaker analyzes VIX forward returns based on closing levels. Moderate volatility (VIX 27-43) leads to good forward returns and win rates >50%. High volatility (VIX >43) breaks this relationship, with lower win rates and returns. The VIX acts as a market signal to policy makers. Effective "call-and-response" (e.g., Fed pivot) leads to good returns after a spike. When the signal fails (e.g., 2008), high VIX levels persist and forward returns suffer. The VIX level is a key indicator to watch for assessing whether market volatility has reached a level that typically forces a policy response and a subsequent market bottom. The current crisis (oil/geopolitical) may not have a clear policy off-ramp that the US can control unilaterally, potentially breaking the typical market-policy feedback loop even at high VIX readings.
VIX WATCH
Speaker provides specific statistical levels: S&P 500 at 6,250 and Nasdaq Comp at 20,650 represent a 2 standard deviation drawdown over 50 trading days. History shows that when these indices fall to these "2-sigma" oversold levels, subsequent 50-day forward returns are strongly positive (+9.6% avg.) with high win rates (92% for SPX, 81% for COMP). These levels are logical entry points to watch for a tactical bounce, as they represent historically tradeable oversold conditions. The historical pattern requires a supportive policy response to the root cause (e.g., war, Fed policy). Without a catalyst, returns can be poor (as in 2022).
SPY WATCH
COMP WATCH
13:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
UBER
SMG
CRM
MSGS
▾
Uber has the largest ride-hailing and delivery network, is forming capital-light partnerships with multiple autonomous vehicle (AV) players (Lucid, Rivian, Pony.AI), and is a cash flow machine. The stock is disliked due to fears of competition from Waymo. In AVs, the largest network will win. Uber's strategy of fostering a multi-OEM AV ecosystem positions it to aggregate supply and meet demand, unlike a scenario where one company (e.g., Waymo) owns all vehicles. Its cross-platform data (rides + delivery) and Uber One membership create a durable competitive moat. LONG because it is the best-positioned logistics platform for the AV future and is currently undervalued as the market misprices this strategic advantage. Waymo or another single player achieves overwhelming market share and bypasses Uber's platform entirely, making its network irrelevant.
UBER LONG
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is a high-quality, family-controlled consumer staples company. It trades at ~9.5x EBITDA, a discount to its historical multiple (12-13x). The 69-year-old founder/controller is heavily involved, and the company suffered from a costly foray into cannabis. The discounted valuation, aging controlling shareholder, and recent business struggles create a scenario where the controlling family may be motivated to sell the company to realize value. WATCH for a potential corporate action (sale) catalyst that could realize the valuation gap. The current price offers an attractive entry point if the catalyst materializes. The family decides against a sale, opting to maintain control indefinitely. The core business faces new headwinds that further compress earnings.
SMG WATCH
Salesforce (CRM) is trading at 13-14x forward earnings, a historically cheap valuation. It is critically ingrained as the "system of record" in many regulated business processes. Activist investors like Starboard Value have taken positions. Its entrenched position in regulated industries (e.g., healthcare) provides durable revenue and high switching costs, protecting it from AI disruption. Activist involvement pressures management to improve capital allocation and profitability. LONG due to a wide margin of safety at current prices, durable competitive advantages, and catalysts from both operational improvement and shareholder activism. The company fails to demonstrate that its AI investments are improving earnings, leading to prolonged growth stagnation and a "value trap."
CRM LONG
MSGS (Madison Square Garden Sports) has an $8B enterprise value versus a combined Forbes valuation of $14.75B for the NY Knicks and Rangers. Management is exploring a spin-off into two separate publicly traded teams (Knicks & Rangers). A tax rule change effective after 2027 will prevent public companies from deducting the salaries of their top-five employees. The spin-off would unlock the underlying asset value for shareholders. The impending tax rule makes public ownership of a sports team with high-player salaries financially untenable, forcing a sale or going private. LONG due to a significant valuation gap and two clear, company-specific catalysts (corporate action and regulatory change) that should close it. Controlling shareholder James Dolan may not execute the spin-off optimally or may delay action. The market may not assign full private market values to the standalone teams post-spin.
MSGS LONG
13:00
Mar 25
Mar 25
HD
Z
MSFT
XLF
▾
Ben Carlson presents a chart showing Home Depot stock "getting smooshed" and breaking below support. He notes it is flat since April 2021 despite $9 trillion in cumulative U.S. home sales over that period. The stock has completely failed to benefit from a massive housing sales boom, suggesting all future optimism was pulled forward and priced in earlier. This disconnect between business activity and shareholder returns exemplifies the perils of buy-and-hold individual stock investing. AVOID. The inference is that this is a broken thesis stock. Even with strong underlying market activity, the equity has been a poor capital allocator, making it an unattractive investment despite the seemingly favorable sector backdrop. A sudden, sustained thaw in the housing market coupled with a shift in investor sentiment could lead to a re-rating.
HD AVOID
Ben Carlson states, "I was bullish on the housing market in 2021 and I bought Zillow and it's been crushed since then. Done nothing essentially. I sold it a while ago." This is a post-mortem on a specific trade. The speaker's bullish housing thesis was correct (as evidenced by $9T in sales), but the chosen equity proxy (Zillow) failed to capture that value, leading to a loss. AVOID. The explicit narrative is one of personal underperformance and divestment. The direction is inferred from the negative outcome and decision to sell, framing it as an asset to avoid based on failed execution. A new business model or market cycle could make Zillow an effective housing market proxy in the future.
Z AVOID
Michael Batnick states Microsoft is down 31% from its peak, at "fresh lows," and is being used as a proxy for OpenAI. He notes "the sellers are in control" and expects it to go lower. The sharp drawdown represents a potential overreption to broader AI sector weakness. A decline of this magnitude for a company of Microsoft's caliber creates a valuation opportunity. WATCH because it is "getting close to plug your nose and buy territory," but the speaker explicitly states he will "wait for it to stop going lower" before considering a purchase, indicating a setup worth monitoring. The downward trend continues without a catalyst, or the fundamental thesis around AI profitability deteriorates further.
MSFT WATCH
Michael Batnick argues that AI will not replace financial advisors, using the analogy of AI-created workout plans not replacing personal trainers because people "need somebody to watch me... I have no discipline." The core value of financial advice is behavioral coaching and accountability, not just information or plan generation—functions AI can replicate. This human element is resistant to automation. WATCH the sector for resilience. This is a structural argument that a key profession within finance (advisors) is not threatened by AI displacement, which is a significant positive differentiator compared to other knowledge-work sectors. Client preferences shift dramatically toward fully automated, low-cost solutions, devaluing the behavioral coaching component.
XLF WATCH
22:19
Mar 24
Mar 24
MSFT
GOOGL
MU
WDC
SAMSUNG
▾
Josh Brown states he will buy Microsoft aggressively, but only on a specific price action signal: "I need a down 4% day that closes up 2%. When that happens, I'll buy it." The stock has been in a persistent downtrend with consecutive red candles, and such a reversal pattern would indicate a potential bounce. He is waiting for that specific entry signal to go long, implying the current downtrend is not yet finished and a defined reversal is needed. The stock may not produce that specific price action and could continue to decline without a bounce.
MSFT WATCH
Josh Brown says to "lay off Alphabet here," describing its chart as breaking below previous support and being in "no man's land technically." The stock is being used as a source of funds in the market rotation, and sellers are in control of the price action. Avoid the stock until the technical picture improves or the selling pressure abates. The stock could rebound if the broader market turns or if AI-related sentiment improves unexpectedly.
GOOGL AVOID
Josh Brown calls the semiconductor stock rally "this year's bubble" and says it will get "real ugly for the people that buy it today," advising to "sell before everybody else does." These stocks have had a massive, parabolic run-up (e.g., "Western Digital is so hot right now") and are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics. Avoid buying at current levels and consider selling existing positions to avoid a potential sharp correction. The bubble could continue to inflate for longer than expected, leading to further gains for those who remain invested.
MU AVOID
WDC AVOID
SAMSUNG AVOID
13:01
Mar 20
Mar 20
AAPL
C
XLK
MSFT
ORCL
▾
Brown argues Apple is the "stealth AI winner," collecting nearly $900M in App Store fees from generative AI apps in 2025 without increasing capex. He states they are in the "pole position" to be the biggest beneficiary due to their dominant device ecosystem. While others spend heavily on AI capex, Apple monetizes AI adoption through its existing platform tax (15-30% on subscriptions). The upcoming "Agentic Siri" launch will integrate with all apps, making AI utility concrete for consumers. Apple's unique, capital-light toll-bridge model in the AI ecosystem is underappreciated and provides a clear path to monetization, making it a compelling long. Delays or failure in the Agentic Siri rollout could postpone the market's recognition of this thesis.
AAPL LONG
Lebenthal calls Citigroup the "easy button," citing its valuation (trades at book value), profitability improvements, a ~2.5% dividend yield, and the pending Banamex Mexico IPO/spin-off as the "final piece of the puzzle." CEO Jane Fraser's restructuring is bearing fruit, and the removal of the Banamex overhang will simplify the story. The stock's discount to book value offers a margin of safety. A straightforward value play with multiple near-term catalysts (profitability, divestiture) that should lead to a re-rating. A broader economic slowdown impacting credit quality could offset operational improvements.
C LONG
Batnick asserts that even if the Iran conflict resolves, the "bigger story" remains the potential disruption from AI to software companies, questioning the impact on corporate and consumer spending if software investment dries up. The "software apocalypse" or AI displacement thesis threatens the business models and valuations of a wide range of technology service companies, which are already seeing significant stock price declines (61% in bear markets). This is a developing, high-magnitude risk that could drive further volatility and re-rating in the sector, requiring close monitoring regardless of other geopolitical developments. The impact may be overstated or take much longer to materialize than feared.
XLK WATCH
Lebenthal states Microsoft is a "great company" and at ~22x forward earnings with >20% growth (PEG <1), it's a "steal." He explicitly says, "this is a price that I think two years from now I'm going to look back and say man that was a steal" and that he is loading up. The recent downdraft is attributed to general market selling (QQQ/SPY outflows), not company-specific news. Its RSI is at multi-year lows (~36), indicating extreme technical weakness. The combination of a low valuation metric (PEG) for a dominant, profitable franchise in AI (Azure, OpenAI) and a washed-out technical setup presents a high-conviction long opportunity. The stock could become more oversold (RSI 25) if market sentiment on tech/AI spending worsens further.
MSFT LONG
Lebenthal describes Oracle as a "coiled spring" for AI believers, down ~50% from highs. He acknowledges the market doubts OpenAI can pay its large contract with Oracle but argues "they just have to be good for some of it." OpenAI's recent massive fundraising ($110B) and incoming customer contracts provide credibility that at least partial payment will flow through to Oracle's earnings, which the market is not pricing in. The extreme sell-off on OpenAI solvency fears is overdone, creating a high-risk/high-reward long opportunity if AI spending remains robust. OpenAI faces financial or operational difficulties, jeopardizing its contract payments to Oracle.
ORCL LONG
13:00
Mar 18
Mar 18
XLE
XLF
BTC
▾
The speaker discusses the "perfect price" of oil ($78) that balances producer and consumer interests, highlights why current prices are surprisingly low given supply risks, and notes energy stocks are among the few sectors making 52-week highs. If the market is underestimating supply constraints from geopolitical events and demand remains steady, oil prices could spike, directly benefiting energy producers and their stocks. The sector warrants close monitoring (WATCH) due to high volatility, compelling risk/reward, and its potential to disrupt broader market stability if prices surge. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East or a sharp global economic slowdown could collapse oil prices and energy stock valuations.
XLE WATCH
The speaker highlights significant redemptions in private credit funds (e.g., 14%), the asset-liability mismatch, overvaluation of underlying SaaS-heavy portfolios, and the "stuck" position of financial advisors caught between clients and bad headlines. Forced selling and gating to meet redemptions can trigger a negative feedback loop, damaging fund structures and investor confidence in the broader private credit and alternative investment space within Finance. The segment (particularly private credit and related advisory services) is unattractive and risky to be involved with (AVOID) until the redemption wave and underlying credit cycle play out. A swift economic recovery or successful loan restructurings could stabilize private credit funds, making the current panic overblown.
XLF AVOID
The speaker states, "My only thesis continues to be for crypto that every time it doesn't die, that's the best thing that happens to it." Bitcoin is noted as being back above $75,000. Repeated survival through cycles builds resilience, legitimacy, and adoption, creating a positive feedback loop for the asset. The asset is worth monitoring (WATCH) as its continued existence and recovery from setbacks reinforce its long-term viability and potential for appreciation. A catastrophic regulatory crackdown, major security failure, or loss of core utility could break the cycle of resilience.
BTC WATCH
22:21
Mar 17
Mar 17
NVDA
XLF
UBER
APO
BX
▾
Speaker is long NVDA for over 10 years and states "I think it's going to 250." Calls it "the best company in the world" and "one of the cheapest stocks in tech." Highlights the "inference inflection" as a key shift from training to permanent, utility-like AI usage. The stock has consolidated for ~6 months near its 200-day moving average, digesting past gains. The GTC event emphasized the shift to inference and physical-world AI applications (robotics, autonomous vehicles), expanding the TAM beyond data center training. Expects a breakout higher from the consolidation pattern as uncertainties clear and the inference-driven growth story becomes clearer, with no specific news catalyst needed. Competition from lower-cost alternatives (e.g., Google TPUs, AMD) for inference workloads, and a potential pullback in data center financing which would directly hit orders.
NVDA LONG
Speaker cites Adam Parker's downgrade of financials and states, "the thing that I am the most worried about is financial stocks." Points to record outflows from financial ETFs and severe price breakdowns in specific lenders like Capital One (30% drawdown) and American Express. The worry is that stress in the private credit market will spill over into public markets and broader lending. The price action in these bellwether financial names is seen as a leading indicator of credit issues spreading. The sector presents poor risk/reward due to spreading credit issues and the potential for a private credit crisis to infect the public financial system. The sell-off may not be a buying opportunity if the spillover occurs. The private credit issue is contained and does not spill over; rate cuts later in the year could provide relief for the sector.
XLF AVOID
Speaker owns "a lot" of UBER and believes it will break its downtrend. Details a series of recent autonomous vehicle partnerships (Zoox/Amazon, Nissan/Waabi, Nvidia) that integrate potential competitors' fleets onto the Uber network. Uber's app becomes the aggregation platform for multiple autonomous vehicle providers (backed by major tech and auto companies), securing its position in the future market against Waymo and Tesla. The stock is exceptionally cheap (bottom quintile of S&P 500 P/E) while growth expectations (~36%) are triple the market median. The combination of strategic positioning for autonomy and deep value relative to growth makes the stock a compelling long. The recent partnership news is a catalyst for the stock to bottom and move higher. Execution risks on autonomous partnerships; competitive threat from Waymo/Google's direct integration into mapping apps remains potent.
UBER LONG
Speaker discusses Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BX), and Ares (ARES) as potential bottom-fishing candidates in the beaten-down private capital space. Notes they were top gainers in the S&P on the day of recording. These stocks are down significantly (e.g., BX down ~40%) despite forward EPS estimates near all-time highs, creating a disconnect. The core business issue is an expected terrible fundraising environment in 2026, not necessarily widespread defaults in current holdings. The group is worth monitoring for a potential bounce if the private credit panic subsides and the feared systemic spillover does not materialize. Apollo is highlighted as potentially being more cautious and better positioned. The private credit/equity marks are indeed wrong, leading to significant NAV declines and sustained investor outflows, creating a vicious cycle.
APO WATCH
BX WATCH
ARES WATCH
13:15
Mar 13
Mar 13
SCHW
HOOD
▾
"519 billion in core net new assets last year... 36% growth in managed investing net inflows... we're winning with we're crushing it with the young investor. One-third of our new client onboards last year were Gen Z." Schwab is successfully bridging the demographic gap that legacy financial institutions struggle with. By capturing Gen Z early and dominating the rapidly growing independent RIA channel, Schwab secures a pipeline of lifelong AUM growth. Furthermore, their deployment of 220+ AI use cases will drive massive operational leverage and margin expansion on their $12 trillion asset base. LONG. Schwab's unmatched scale, successful demographic capture, and zero-fee custody moat make it a highly defensible long-term compounder. A severe market downturn could compress asset-based fees, or aggressive cash sorting by clients could pressure net interest revenue.
SCHW LONG
"Robin Hood bought trade PMR... they make their average revenue on a client assets 1.6 1.7%. We make 10 basis points in our advisor business. It's a thin margin business and that's at our scale 5.5 trillion... it's hard for competitors to enter and be successful." Robinhood is attempting to pivot from a high-margin, transactional "casino" model (options, crypto, sports betting) into the stable wealth management space. However, the RIA custody business is a commoditized, scale-driven game. Robinhood will struggle to generate meaningful profitability in a 10-basis-point margin environment against entrenched incumbents with trillions in assets. AVOID. The transition from a transactional retail broker to a serious wealth management custodian will drag on margins and face severe structural friction. Robinhood could successfully leverage its highly engaged retail user base to cross-sell advisory products, defying traditional margin constraints.
HOOD AVOID
17:00
Mar 11
Mar 11
SPY
IGV
XLK
GLD
TLT
▾
"The US is energy independent... when you look at the household budget, energy as a percentage of that budget in the 70s was 12%. Now energy is something like 7% or 6%." Because the US produces its own energy and consumers are less reliant on it, domestic equities will shrug off Middle East conflict and oil spikes much faster than they did in previous decades. The initial panic selloffs are buying opportunities. LONG SPY because the underlying US economy is structurally protected from overseas energy shocks, allowing the broad market to absorb geopolitical hits. A severe escalation that drags the US military into a prolonged conflict, or oil spiking so high (e.g., well over $100) that it breaks consumer sentiment regardless of the lower budget percentage.
SPY LONG
When asked what will be higher a year from now between energy stocks, tech stocks, or gold, Ben replies, "If it was like say software stocks, it seems like that would be the easiest one." Despite geopolitical noise and commodity volatility, the secular growth and earnings power of the technology and software sectors remain the most reliable drivers of capital appreciation over a 12-month horizon. LONG IGV / XLK as software and tech offer the clearest path to growth, independent of messy macro and geopolitical variables. A sudden spike in interest rates (due to inflation/oil) could compress the valuation multiples of high-growth software companies.
IGV LONG
XLK LONG
"How much of all the geopolitical mayhem... is already priced in? I think the path of least resistance is plateau or lower, not doubling from here." Gold has already experienced a massive run-up by pricing in wars, tariffs, and political chaos. Once the market realizes these crises are not escalating into worst-case scenarios, the safe-haven premium will evaporate, capping gold's upside. AVOID GLD because the geopolitical fear trade is crowded and fully priced, leaving limited room for further upside. A true "black swan" event (e.g., China invading Taiwan or a massive US policy failure) that triggers a new, unpriced wave of global panic buying.
GLD AVOID
When asked if rate cuts are off the table for the time being due to spiking oil prices, Barry answers, "Oh, for sure. Yes." Higher oil prices feed directly into headline inflation. If inflation remains sticky or accelerates due to energy costs, the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates, which will keep long-duration bond yields high and prices low. AVOID TLT because the macroeconomic environment (resilient economy + energy shocks) supports a "higher for longer" interest rate regime. A sudden, severe recession or labor market collapse that forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively regardless of energy prices.
TLT AVOID
"I do not buy this argument that you can look through to the cash on their balance sheet as part of yours because you have no ability to tap that liquidity... That stock can still fall regardless of how high the cash level is." Retail investors often use mental accounting to justify dangerous portfolio concentration (e.g., treating Berkshire's cash pile as their own fixed income). However, idiosyncratic equity risk remains; if the broader market drops, these specific stocks will still suffer equity-like drawdowns. NEUTRAL BRK.B / PLD for concentrated holders. Investors should sell down oversized positions to buy broad index funds or actual fixed income, even if it triggers capital gains taxes. The specific companies could heavily outperform the broader market, causing the investor to miss out on excess returns and pay unnecessary taxes.
BRK.B NEUTRAL
PLD NEUTRAL
13:01
Mar 11
Mar 11
CORN
WEAT
SOYB
SPY
BX
▾
Commodities are getting more and more attention as we enter 2026. Tukrium's agricultural ETFs offer way to access the futures prices of essential crops. As inflation risks persist and traditional stock and bond portfolios face macro volatility, agricultural commodities provide non-correlated diversification and a direct hedge against rising consumer prices. LONG. Agricultural commodities act as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge in a volatile macro environment. Favorable global weather conditions leading to bumper crops could significantly suppress agricultural commodity prices regardless of broader inflation.
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
I feel like the market can only take so much. Like at some point one of these punches will land... if you get a down 1% day that closes green and it happens for the first time in a three-month period, historically that's very bullish... But the more of those you start to stack up like eventually the market breaks. The market is currently exhibiting extreme resilience to negative macro shocks, such as oil spiking 27% over a weekend. However, repeated 1% intraday bullish reversals indicate that sellers are consistently testing the market. Eventually, buyer exhaustion will set in, leaving the broader indices vulnerable to a sharp correction once the dip-buyers step aside. WATCH. The S&P 500 is showing technical signs of potential buyer exhaustion despite surface-level resilience; caution is warranted. The underlying economy remains robust and buyers continue to step in with excess liquidity, pushing the market to new highs and forcing bears to capitulate.
SPY WATCH
You saw massive redemptions... at BlackRock this week. You saw it at Blackstone... the equity of these companies are getting demolished. All of the publicly traded BDCs are trading at a severe negative discount to their NAV... KKR is like the private equity shop and the equity of KKR is getting smothered. The market is aggressively selling off the equity of alternative asset managers due to headline fears of a "private credit bubble" and temporary retail fund redemptions. However, the underlying private credit loans have below-average defaults, strong structural protections, and organic liquidity. The market is mispricing the equity of these managers by pricing in worst-case scenarios that have not materialized. LONG. The sentiment-driven sell-off in alternative asset managers and BDCs has created a deep value opportunity, as the underlying private credit fundamentals remain intact. A severe, prolonged economic recession could eventually cause a spike in realized credit losses in the middle market, validating the market's current pessimistic pricing of these equities.
BX LONG
KKR LONG
BLK LONG
21:00
Mar 09
Mar 09
PFE
MRK
LLY
JNJ
HOG
▾
"The Trump RX plan of course is developed by these private meetings with the pharma types... especially Merc and Eli Lily and J&J have been very effective at that." Companies that engage Trump privately and collectively can shape policy in their favor without triggering his public attacks. The pharmaceutical sector successfully used this playbook to navigate drug pricing policies, resulting in a plan that was much better for the industry than critics anticipated. LONG. These large pharma companies have proven they can manage political and regulatory risk under Trump by using private, collective influence to protect their margins. The presence of RFK Jr. in the administration is noted as a "pernicious problem" that could introduce unpredictable regulatory or narrative risks for the sector.
PFE LONG
MRK LONG
LLY LONG
JNJ LONG
"Harley-Davidson on their own had trouble getting bikes... into the EU because of retaliatory trade barriers... President Trump took that as a personal defense and told everybody to stop buying Harley's. His stock plummeted. He got fired." Trump uses a "divide and conquer" strategy. When a company is singled out and lacks the cover of collective industry action, it becomes highly vulnerable to his public attacks, which can immediately destroy shareholder value and force leadership changes. AVOID. Companies that publicly cross the administration's political narratives or get caught alone in the crosshairs face severe, unpredictable headline risk. The news cycle moves quickly due to Trump's "wall of sound" strategy, meaning the negative impact of a boycott could be short-lived if the administration pivots to a new target.
HOG AVOID
"Arvin Krishna of IBM and tech titans would meet with him in small groups. It was extremely effective... the CEOs of Walmart, Home Depot and Costco went and met with Trump privately." Trump responds well to private, backstage diplomacy rather than public defiance or massive lobbying groups. Companies whose leadership understands this specific hub-and-spoke engagement model can successfully negotiate favorable terms and avoid his public wrath. LONG. These companies have demonstrated the political savvy required to navigate Trump's unorthodox leadership style, minimizing their regulatory risks while quietly advancing their corporate interests. Trump's ad-hoc decision-making and reliance on loyalists over experts could still unpredictably impact trade or tech policies before these CEOs have a chance to intervene.
IBM LONG
WMT LONG
HD LONG
COST LONG
14:01
Mar 06
Mar 06
LOAN
CGBD
KKR
ARES
CBRE
▾
Publicly traded BDCs (Business Development Companies) like Chicago Atlantic (REFI), Manhattan Bridge (LOAN), and Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) are trading at valuations that price in GFC-level defaults (10-12%). Actual defaults are nowhere near these levels. The market is mispricing the risk due to panic in the private credit sector. These stocks are "dirt cheap" on a value reversion model. Long for value and yield. If the economy enters a hard recession, actual defaults could rise to meet the market's pessimistic pricing.
LOAN LONG
CGBD LONG
REFI LONG
These stocks (KKR, Aries Management, CBRE, Huntington Bancshares) are explicitly on Garrett's "negative momentum" breakdown list. When stocks fall below key moving averages (20/50 day) and lack insider buying support, they enter a liquidation phase. The "Private Credit is Subprime" narrative, while debatable fundamentally, is driving price action downward in these names. Short/Avoid until momentum stabilizes or insiders step in. A sudden Fed pivot or "QE" announcement would squeeze financials higher immediately.
KKR SHORT
ARES SHORT
CBRE SHORT
HBAN SHORT
Blackstone Minerals (BSM) is a "choke point" asset that owns mineral rights/royalties rather than just operations. In an inflationary or "end of times" geopolitical environment, you want to own assets that kick off cash without heavy capex. BSM pays an ~8% yield and is highly capital efficient. Long as a cash-flowing inflation hedge. A collapse in energy prices would directly impact royalty payouts.
BSM LONG
The Trade Desk (TTD) was on the "breakdown list" but recently saw significant insider buying. When a stock falls off the negative momentum list and insiders immediately step in to buy, it signals a high-probability reversal. Long (Momentum Reversal). If the stock falls back onto the breakdown list, the trade is invalidated.
TTD LONG
CrowdStrike (CRWD) has a network effect model (Falcon platform) where every new customer adds data that protects all other customers instantly. AI is an accelerator for cyber threats, which increases the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for CRWD. As the leader, it is undervalued at $100B market cap relative to its future dominance as the "invisible shield" for global enterprise. Long (Core holding). High valuation multiples make it volatile; execution risk if they fail to capture the AI security spend.
CRWD LONG
Investors are selling "Mag 7" tech stocks (Microsoft, Amazon) but are not moving to cash; they are rotating into other liquid mega-caps. Capital needs a home. Exxon (XOM) and Eli Lilly (LLY) offer liquidity and growth/dividends without the "AI Capex" baggage currently weighing down big tech. Long as beneficiaries of the "Anti-Leadership" rotation. A resurgence in Tech/AI sentiment would reverse this rotation quickly.
XOM LONG
LLY LONG
Campbell Soup (CPB), Brown-Forman (BF.B), and Genuine Parts (GPC) are on the active breakdown list with "perfect downtrends." These are classic value traps. Despite being "defensive," they are failing to catch a bid even during a rotation into staples, signaling deep fundamental or structural issues (e.g., Gen Alpha not eating canned soup). Short/Avoid. Sector rotation into deep value could trigger a dead-cat bounce.
CPB SHORT
BF.B SHORT
GPC SHORT
Modern warfare has shifted to localized drone usage and AI-driven missile defense (US neutralizing Iranian launches instantly). Defense spending is shifting from legacy tanks to AI software and drones. Companies like Kratos (KTOS) and Palantir (PLTR) are the direct beneficiaries of this "future of warfare" spending. Long Defense Tech. Government contract lumpiness and high valuations in the "war trade."
KTOS LONG
PLTR LONG
18:56
Mar 04
Mar 04
BOXX
BIL
IWC
IWM
▾
"Instead of paying tax on dividends you pay capital gains tax on BOX when you sell the fund... It's considered a 1256 contract... 60% long-term, 40% short-term regardless of the holding period." Traditional cash instruments (like T-Bills or HYSA) generate ordinary income, which is taxed at the highest marginal rate. BOXX utilizes options strategies to replicate the risk-free rate but delivers returns via price appreciation. For high-net-worth investors in taxable accounts, the tax-equivalent yield of BOXX is significantly higher than standard money markets because it leverages the 60/40 tax rule and defers taxes until sale. LONG as a cash-management tool for high-tax bracket investors. Regulatory risk (IRS closing the loophole), counterparty risk in the options market (though collateralized), or rising interest rates affecting the spread mechanics.
BOXX LONG
"If you own T bills or the BIL ETF... you're paying ordinary income tax on the distributions of the fund." While `BIL` is the standard for risk-free exposure, it is tax-inefficient for wealthy investors compared to the `BOXX` strategy discussed. It remains valid for IRAs where tax drag is irrelevant, but in taxable brokerage accounts, it is mathematically inferior to tax-optimized alternatives. NEUTRAL (Switch to BOXX in taxable accounts; hold in tax-deferred accounts). None (risk-free asset), other than opportunity cost of lower after-tax yield.
BIL NEUTRAL
"Liquidity premium, I think, is what you're paying, what you're getting, right, in most of these funds [Private Equity]... You can look at micro cap, you can look at smaller caps. You just don't have to go into these private vehicles and take in all the cost." Private Equity returns are often correlated with size and value factors found in public markets. Investors seeking high growth or "private-like" returns should buy public Micro Caps (IWC) or Small Caps (IWM) instead of locking money into illiquid PE funds. This avoids the "2 and 20" fee structure, K-1 tax headaches, and 10-year lockups while targeting similar underlying business dynamics. LONG public small/micro caps as a liquid proxy for Private Equity exposure. Small caps are highly volatile and sensitive to interest rates; they lack the "volatility laundering" (smoothing) effect of private valuations.
IWC LONG
IWM LONG
14:00
Mar 04
Mar 04
INTU
SQ
PARA
MSFT
BX
▾
Intuit was up 17% over the last 5 days following fears that "software is dead." The market overreacted to the "AI will replace software" narrative. Intuit's recovery signals a "bottom" for essential software companies that are actually integrating AI rather than being replaced by it. Long/Recovery play on oversold software. Long-term AI disruption to tax/accounting models.
INTU LONG
Jack Dorsey announced a 40% staff cut citing AI efficiency. The stock jumped 25% in after-hours trading. Whether the AI narrative is true or just an excuse for "pandemic rightsizing," the market loves the margin expansion. Investors are rewarding companies that rip the band-aid off to fix their cost structures. Bullish reaction to cost-cutting and efficiency. Morale destruction and potential operational issues from cutting too deep.
SQ LONG
Paramount is proceeding with a merger that involves massive debt and $16B in cost cuts. Michael notes, "These mergers never ever work." The deal is driven by necessity (survival) rather than growth. The integration will result in a "catastrophe" of layoffs and debt servicing, likely leading to years of underperformance before potentially being spun out again. Avoid legacy media entangled in debt-heavy consolidation. Aggressive cost-cutting could temporarily boost free cash flow.
PARA AVOID
WBD AVOID
Michael explicitly mentions, "Last week I bought Microsoft on the air... wasn't a bad buy." Buying high-quality software/tech during "blood in the streets" moments (like the recent software selloff) is a core strategy. Long high-quality mega-cap tech on pullbacks. Continued broad market sell-off dragging down all equities.
MSFT LONG
Blackstone's flagship private credit fund was hit with $1.7B of net outflows in a month. The stock is down significantly (approx. 40% from highs) and Michael explicitly states, "I own the stock and I will be selling it today." The thesis for private credit is breaking due to floating rates no longer being attractive as rates peak, combined with fears of underlying portfolio weakness (software exposure). When a "crowded trade" faces redemption waves, you do not wait for the dust to settle. Michael is taking a 13% loss to exit. He refuses to "fight the tape" amidst a crash in the asset class. The firm injected capital to cover redemptions, which could stabilize confidence temporarily.
BX SHORT
"Brent oil... was up 8% yesterday... Natural gas prices [in Europe] up 35%." A geopolitical supply shock (Iran strikes/Hormuz concerns) is driving input prices higher. While the US is energy independent, global pricing mechanisms (Brent/Nat Gas) are spiking, acting as an inflationary tax and boosting energy commodities. Long energy commodities as a hedge against the geopolitical flare-up. AI/Deflationary forces eventually trumping inflation narratives (as they have historically).
UNG LONG
USO LONG
Netflix backed out of the Paramount merger. Michael states, "Netflix is so much better off because of this." By avoiding the "media merger" trap—which typically involves taking on massive debt and integrating dying legacy assets—Netflix preserves its balance sheet and dominance. Michael views this as a "buy and hold." Bullish on Netflix's discipline and standalone dominance. Valuation concerns if subscriber growth slows.
NFLX LONG
IMAX releases earned 58 Academy Award nominations and delivered 20% of the domestic opening for major films (up from 10% pre-COVID). The "Premium Experience" thesis is validating. As people go to fewer movies, they choose high-quality formats (IMAX) when they do go. The company is gaining market share despite a shrinking overall theater industry. Long via the "flight to quality" in entertainment. General decline in box office attendance.
IMAX LONG
23:28
Mar 03
Mar 03
EOG
OXY
NOW
TOST
TTAN
▾
Energy stocks anticipated the geopolitical tension before the news broke. EOG is retesting a breakout; OXY has a "gap and go" setup. "News follows price." Even if oil doesn't go to $100, energy stocks act as a hedge against geopolitical risk. The technicals (Golden Cross on OXY, breakout retest on EOG) signal momentum. Buy/Hold. Do not sell energy exposure even if it drags temporarily; it is the necessary hedge. De-escalation in the Middle East could cause a rapid unwind of the risk premium in oil prices.
EOG LONG
OXY LONG
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
Software stocks were decimated (down ~60% in some cases) on fears that AI would replace them, but are now stabilizing/bouncing (Intuit +22% in 5 days). The "AI kills SaaS" narrative was overdone. Incumbents like Toast (restaurant billing) and ServiceTitan (trades billing) own the workflow and will likely be the ones to *deliver* AI features to their verticals, not be replaced by them. Buy the rotation. The market is realizing these business models are not obsolete. If these stocks roll over and make new lows, the "AI disruption" thesis might actually be valid, leading to a much deeper selloff.
NOW LONG
TOST LONG
TTAN LONG
INTU LONG
Nvidia beat earnings and raised guidance, yet the stock has gone sideways since August 2025. The company is suffering from the "Law of Large Numbers" and multiple compression. Customers are exploring cheaper alternatives (TPUs, ASICs) for inference, eroding the "monopoly" premium. Avoid/Neutral. The stock is "too big to move" and is undergoing a natural valuation reset (22x forward PE). A re-acceleration in demand for Blackwell/Rubin chips could prove the competition thesis wrong.
NVDA NEUTRAL
DraftKings stock fell 60% (from $50s to $20s) on fears that "Prediction Markets" (like Kalshi/Polymarket) would steal market share. The CEO stated there is no discernible impact on revenue. The company is cleaning up stock-based comp and turning profitable. The fear of prediction markets is priced in, but the impact is exaggerated. Buy. A contrarian trade on a beaten-down stock where the bearish narrative (competition) is false. Regulatory crackdowns or continued cash burn; Michael argues the business model fundamentally destroys its own customer base (gamblers lose money).
DKNG LONG
Drone warfare (kamikaze drones) has become the standard for modern conflict, as seen in recent geopolitical escalations. The "Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF" (JEDI) holds the companies supplying these specific munitions (Kratos, AeroVironment, etc.). Watch. It is the pure-play vehicle for the "warfare by drone" thesis. High concentration in volatile defense contractors; regulatory shifts in defense spending.
JEDI WATCH
CrowdStrike reported strong earnings ($5.25B ARR, +24% YoY) but the stock didn't rally massively due to guidance. The market realized that AI (Anthropic/LLMs) doesn't solve cybersecurity; in fact, more AI workloads create *more* endpoints that need Falcon's protection. Long-term hold. The pullback offers a chance to own the "platform winner" in cyber, similar to how semi-cap equipment consolidated to 3 players. Valuation remains high (20x sales); guidance must be perfect to sustain the multiple.
CRWD LONG
Josh sold his Blackstone position (calling it a "falling knife") despite believing the company is high quality. Sentiment on Alternative Asset Managers is toxic due to headlines about private credit valuations and liquidity caps (e.g., BREIT/BCRED). Even if fundamentals are fine, the "headache" and negative news flow will cap upside. Sell. Capital is better deployed elsewhere until the negative sentiment cycle regarding private credit washes out. If the "soft landing" occurs and private credit defaults remain low, BX will likely rip higher as fears abate.
BX AVOID
Newmont Mining pulled back to its long-term moving average within a powerful uptrend. This is a classic technical setup: a stock in a secular bull market revisiting support due to an exogenous event (market volatility). Buy the dip. It is a low-risk, high-reward entry point at the moving average. Gold prices reversing or the stock failing to hold the moving average support.
NEM LONG
22:00
Mar 02
Mar 02
ORAN
EUAD
EADSY
BAESY
RNMBY
▾
Europe is building a "Kill Switch" to insulate itself from US tech leverage. France and others have stated desires to move off platforms like Teams and Zoom. This is the "Soft Power" rebuild. Regulatory pressure and "sovereignty" mandates will force EU enterprises and governments to switch to local providers for cloud, telecom, and integration. This creates a "Euro Stack" of winners in semi-conductors (ASML, Infineon), telecom infrastructure (Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Orange), and data/cloud services (SAP, Capgemini, Nebius). Long the "European Digital Sovereignty" basket. These companies have a regulatory moat protecting them from US competition within the EU. European tech execution has historically lagged; US tech giants are deeply entrenched and difficult to displace.
ORAN LONG
ASML LONG
SAP LONG
DTEGY LONG
ERIC LONG
IFNNY LONG
NBIS LONG
CGEMY LONG
Europe is aggressively rebuilding its military capabilities ("Hard Power") and explicitly wants to reduce reliance on US defense guarantees. This geopolitical shift forces European governments to direct procurement budgets to domestic champions rather than US firms like Lockheed or Raytheon. The "Trump Trade" in 2024 accelerated this, but the spending cycle is multi-year. Long European Defense. The ETF (EUAD) captures the pure-play theme, while specific ADRs like Airbus (EADSY), BAE Systems (BAESY), and Rheinmetall (RNMBY) are the direct beneficiaries of increased German/EU budgets. Peace negotiations or a sudden reintegration of US/EU defense policies could dampen the urgency for local spending.
EUAD LONG
EADSY LONG
BAESY LONG
RNMBY LONG
European governments (specifically citing France) have expressed a desire to stop using US-based communication tools like Zoom and Microsoft Teams. If "Digital Sovereignty" gains traction, Zoom is the easiest vendor to displace in favor of a local, regulated alternative. It is highly susceptible to the "Kill Switch" narrative where Europe cuts off US software. Avoid Zoom as it faces political headwinds in a major market. Zoom's product superiority may outweigh political desires; the "replacement" phase may take years to materialize.
ZM AVOID
Despite the push for international diversification and sovereignty, "None of this happens without Nvidia." Even as Europe and China build their own stacks, the underlying compute infrastructure (AI chips) still relies heavily on Nvidia's architecture. It remains the "arms dealer" for everyone's sovereign AI ambitions. Long Nvidia. It is the indispensable component of the global tech buildout, regardless of where the software layer resides. Geopolitical export controls tightening further; emergence of viable sovereign chip competitors.
NVDA LONG
China is advancing rapidly in "Physical AI" (humanoid robots) and remains a massive player in the global tech ecosystem despite trade wars. Investors are ignoring China due to macro fears, but the "Robot" and "AI" themes within China are advancing. While a specific "China Robot ETF" doesn't exist yet, tech giants like Alibaba and Baidu are the current proxies for this innovation. Long China Tech (Thematic). Focus on the companies building the AI/Robotics infrastructure rather than broad economic exposure. US sanctions, Chinese regulatory crackdowns, and geopolitical conflict (e.g., Iran/Venezuela proxy issues).
BABA LONG
BIDU LONG
KWEB LONG
14:00
Feb 27
Feb 27
BTC
CARR
TT
PH
PWR
▾
Gold and Bitcoin have had massive runs but are now chopping sideways or correcting. These assets are in the "penalty box." After parabolic moves, assets typically need 6-12 months of repair and consolidation before the next leg up. Wait for the consolidation to finish; do not chase here. A sudden devaluation of the USD could trigger a breakout sooner than expected.
BTC NEUTRAL
GLD NEUTRAL
While the "AI trade" in semiconductors (NVDA) is stalling, the "derivative" AI trade in industrial services and electrical equipment is breaking out. Data centers require massive physical infrastructure (cooling, power management, batteries). The market is rotating from the "brain" (chips) to the "body" (infrastructure). Stocks like Corning (GLW) and Enersys (ENS) look like "crypto in 2021" on the charts. Long the "Pick and Shovel" plays of the AI buildout. A sudden halt in hyperscaler capex spending.
CARR LONG
TT LONG
PH LONG
PWR LONG
GLW LONG
ENS LONG
The NASDAQ is down, yet more stocks are advancing than declining. 97% of energy stocks are above their 200-day moving average. This is a "Market of the Many." The concentration risk of the Mag-7 is unwinding, but capital isn't leaving the market; it is rotating into the "average stock" (Equal Weight), Industrials, and Midcaps. Long Equal Weight (RSP) and Industrials (XLI) over the QQQ. A recession that drags down cyclical sectors.
RSP LONG
XLI LONG
MDY LONG
70% of software stocks made 3-month lows last week. Sentiment is that "Software is dead" due to AI. When a sector is universally hated and hits extreme oversold levels (similar to COVID lows), it often marks a "local bottom." Bad news (like Workday's earnings) is being bought, suggesting sellers are exhausted. Cover shorts and buy the bounce in Software. AI actually does structurally displace SaaS revenue models faster than anticipated.
IGV LONG
WDAY LONG
CRM LONG
Consumer Staples are trading at ~23.5x forward earnings, which is a higher multiple than the Mag-7 (excluding Tesla). Investors are paying a premium for "safety" that doesn't exist mathematically. You are buying low-growth companies (peanut butter and jelly) at hyper-growth multiples. Fade Staples; the risk/reward is skewed to the downside. A severe recession causes a flight to safety regardless of valuation.
XLP SHORT
Companies that spend heavily on lobbying Washington consistently outperform the S&P 500. In a world where 52% of S&P companies list "Government" as a top risk, those who pay to be at the table (Lobbying Intensity) protect their moats and influence regulation in their favor. Long the "Lobbying Intensity" factor (e.g., Eli Lilly, Meta, Vertex). Populist backlash banning corporate lobbying.
LLY LONG
META LONG
VRTX LONG
The Department of Defense has consolidated to 5 prime contractors and is actively integrating private AI (Anthropic) for mission-critical tasks. The government cannot move fast enough on its own, so it is creating a "partnership" model with defense primes and tech firms. This guarantees long-term contracts and effectively government-backed moats for these companies. Long Defense Primes and Defense Tech. Budget cuts or regulatory crackdowns on AI usage in warfare.
LMT LONG
LHX LONG
PLTR LONG
Apple is the only Mag-7 stock not spending hundreds of billions on data center capex. Apple will simply layer its AI ("Agentic Siri") on top of the infrastructure others paid to build. It remains the gatekeeper to the consumer. While others burn cash on capex, Apple retains margins and captures the user base. Long Apple as the "Consumer AI" winner. Antitrust regulation or failure of Siri to compete with advanced models.
AAPL LONG
Copper stocks are making new highs and showing strong reversals (e.g., FCX rallying after a morning sell-off). We are moving from a unipolar (financialized) world to a multipolar (resource-intensive) world. The "electrification of everything" requires massive amounts of copper. Price action confirms the thesis. Long Copper and Copper Miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand.
FCX LONG
COPX LONG
18:52
Feb 25
Feb 25
XLRE
TLT
▾
High-income assets (REITs, Bonds) generate ordinary income, which is taxed at the highest marginal rates (e.g., 35%). Asset *Location* is a free lunch. By placing these assets in tax-deferred accounts (IRAs/401ks) and keeping capital-gain efficient assets (Stocks/ETFs) in taxable accounts, you arbitrage the tax code to increase net returns. LONG these assets specifically within tax-qualified accounts. Future tax legislation changes that alter the treatment of qualified dividends vs. ordinary income.
XLRE LONG
Box spreads allow investors to borrow against their taxable brokerage accounts at rates tracking the Fed Funds rate (approx. 4.8%) rather than retail margin or HELOC rates (6-8%+). This is an arbitrage on financing costs. Instead of liquidating assets (triggering capital gains) or paying high bank interest, sophisticated investors can access institutional financing rates via the options market. The "BOXX" ETF is mentioned in the chat as the inverse (lending side) of this trade. LONG the strategy of using Box Spreads for liquidity needs (refinancing debt, bridge loans) rather than traditional bank lending. Liquidation risk if the underlying portfolio collateral value drops significantly (margin call).
TLT LONG
14:00
Feb 25
Feb 25
MSFT
CRM
CRWD
SPGI
AXP
▾
Software stocks recently experienced their worst month since October 2008. Specific names like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are down significantly, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down ~30% from highs. The market is panic-selling on the "AI Doom" thesis (AI replaces software seats/white-collar demand). Batnick believes this is an emotional overreaction ("The market is more drunk than sober"). If AI is as powerful as predicted, these tech incumbents will likely be the beneficiaries, not the victims. Aggressive buy on the dip. Batnick explicitly states, "I am going to buy Microsoft today. I am running into the fire." The "AI deflationary bust" thesis proves true, leading to structural decline in SaaS pricing power.
MSFT LONG
CRM LONG
CRWD LONG
SPGI LONG
NOW LONG
NFLX LONG
Capital One (COF) and American Express (AXP) fell ~8% following a research piece suggesting AI agents will disrupt payments and cause white-collar credit defaults. Batnick characterizes this specific move as a "stupid overreaction." The idea that AI immediately destroys the creditworthiness of the consumer base or invalidates payment rails is viewed as hyperbole. Buy the dip on high-quality financials sold off on science-fiction narratives. Rapid rise in white-collar unemployment leads to actual credit deterioration.
AXP LONG
COF LONG
Blackstone (BX) is in a 43% drawdown. The private credit and private equity sectors are being hammered by fears of "software exposure" and valuation concerns. While acknowledging the risk ("No [__], the stock is down 43%"), Batnick argues that the market is pricing in a disaster scenario (GFC-level defaults) that isn't visible in the actual credit data yet. He is "comfortable holding this stock" through the volatility. Contrarian Long into deep negative sentiment. Private credit valuations mark-to-market lower; "Software exposure" in private portfolios leads to realized losses.
BX LONG
Blue Owl (OWL) stock is down 60%. They recently attempted to quell fears by offering a buyback that the market misinterpreted or rejected. Batnick describes their handling of the situation as a "PR mega fail." He explicitly states, "Blue Owl's done. They will not raise another dollar in these private credit funds." Even if the sector is oversold, this specific issuer has suffered irreparable reputational damage with allocators. The stock is so beaten down that it becomes a deep value play if they stabilize flows.
OWL AVOID
Bitcoin's price action is currently charting almost identically to software stocks. Despite the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" or a separate asset class, the market is currently treating it purely as a risk-on/risk-off software asset. It is trading as a high-beta proxy for the software sector, not an uncorrelated hedge. Decoupling from equities during a monetary debasement event.
BTC NEUTRAL
The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).
XLRE LONG
23:29
Feb 24
Feb 24
XLE
XLB
XLP
XLU
APO
▾
Josh observes that while the S&P 500 is flat, "Halo" sectors (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Staples, Utilities) are significantly outperforming. He notes oil majors like OXY, XOM, and CVX are re-rating higher (e.g., XOM PE went from 14 to 22). AI introduces "obsolescence risk" to asset-light tech companies. Conversely, physical industries ("Heavy Assets") cannot be easily disrupted by LLMs. Capital is fleeing uncertainty in tech for the safety of tangible economy stocks. Long the "Halo" trade—sectors with physical moats and low AI disruption risk. A sudden deflationary bust or recession could hurt cyclical heavy industries (Energy/Materials).
XLE LONG
XLB LONG
XLP LONG
XLU LONG
XLI LONG
OXY LONG
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
Alternative asset managers are in 30-40% drawdowns (e.g., Blackstone down 42% from highs). Sentiment is at rock bottom due to fears over private credit valuations and "hidden cockroaches." Michael argues these are "illustrious" firms with massive staying power (Blackstone is the "BlackRock of Private Equity"). The market is pricing in a 2008-style collapse, but actual distress is not yet visible in the data. He views this as a sentiment disconnect. Long the top-tier Alternative Managers as a contrarian value play. (Michael explicitly bought BX and owns CG). Actual systemic credit events or fraud (like the "cockroaches" Jamie Dimon warned about) could validate the sell-off.
APO LONG
KKR LONG
BX LONG
CG LONG
ARES LONG
Software stocks are crashing despite decent earnings (e.g., Workday down significantly). Valuations are compressing from ~10x sales to ~4x sales. Josh notes, "Software is having its worst month since 2008." Investors fear AI will destroy software margins (deflationary pressure). If margins compress by 50%, multiples must compress by 50% to maintain fair value. The market is pricing in a structural regime change where SaaS is no longer a safe compounder. Avoid or Short Legacy SaaS/Software. The "Software is eating the world" thesis is dead. Oversold bounce; Adam Parker notes that "expensive" software stocks often outperform "cheap" ones after a crash.
WDAY SHORT
CRM SHORT
CRWD SHORT
TOST SHORT
IGV SHORT
Pool Corp (POOL) and Floor & Decor (FND) are "murdered" in the market. Pool builds are down 50% since the pandemic peak. Pending home sales are diverging negatively from seasonal trends. The "COVID pull-forward" demand has evaporated. High rates have frozen the housing market ("lock-in effect"), meaning fewer moves and fewer renovations. Short/Avoid housing-related consumer discretionary stocks that benefited from the pandemic boom. The Fed cuts rates aggressively, unlocking housing inventory and demand.
POOL SHORT
FND SHORT
Citing Adam Parker's research: In the last 20 years, following software valuation corrections, buying the *most expensive* software stocks outperformed buying the cheapest ones. Cheap software stocks (like Salesforce) are cheap for a reason (growth slowing). Expensive ones (like Palo Alto Networks) have premiums because they still have growth/momentum. If you must buy software, buy the high-flyers, not the value traps. Long high-growth/expensive software relative to cheap software peers. Broad sector beta drags down even the best names.
PANW LONG
Since October 2022, Emerging Markets (excluding China/specific drags) have actually outperformed the S&P 500, which has stalled out recently. Valuations in the US are compressing (PE compression), while international markets are "red-hot on fire." The earnings benefits are accruing to non-US markets while US tech struggles with high expectations. Long Emerging Markets/International Equities as a diversification play against US stagnation. A strong US Dollar or global recession could hurt EM assets.
EEM LONG
22:00
Feb 23
Feb 23
ACWX
GOOGL
AMZN
META
MSFT
▾
The S&P 500 has a 17% overweight to Technology compared to the "Rest of World" index (ACWX). Conversely, ACWX is heavily weighted towards Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Investors face a binary choice: stick with the US "hyper-investment" model or diversify. If the AI capex bet fails to pay off, the "American Exceptionalism" trade (which relies on tech dominance) unwinds. Capital must go somewhere, and it will flow to the valuation discount and cyclical bias of international markets. Long ACWX acts as a hedge against US Tech concentration risk. The recent move (ACWX outperforming US by 11% in 100 days) is statistically extreme (2-3 standard deviations), suggesting a potential short-term mean reversion or pullback before the trend continues.
ACWX LONG
Big Tech's asset efficiency (Revenue / PP&E) has dropped from 2.2x in 2023 to ~1.1x projected for 2026. Furthermore, Capex spending now exceeds operating cash flow for Amazon (133%), Meta (106%), and Alphabet (103%). Management is effectively betting the entire company's cash flow on AI infrastructure. While they view this as an existential necessity to avoid falling behind, shareholders are only tolerating the margin compression because they expect massive future ROI. The clock is ticking. These companies have until the end of 2026 to prove that 2027 will bring *profitable* growth (margin expansion). If they fail, the "vote of confidence" premium in their stock prices will vanish. If AI generates massive, high-margin revenue sooner than expected, these stocks will justify the spend. Conversely, if they cut spend, they risk obsolescence.
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
META WATCH
MSFT WATCH
Japan has seen a resurgence due to corporate reforms. Europe is potentially following suit with defense spending and fiscal programs. While the US faces potential labor disruption from AI, Europe's strong social safety nets may buffer the societal impact (albeit at a higher fiscal cost). Additionally, if Europe adopts Japanese-style corporate governance reforms, it could trigger a similar re-rating of asset prices. A viable alternative for capital fleeing US concentration, specifically for investors looking for "cheaper assets" with different macro drivers. European earnings growth has been stagnant; recent returns were largely currency-driven rather than fundamental.
EWJ LONG
EWG LONG
14:00
Feb 20
Feb 20
BKLN
EWJ
OWL
MSFT
SKYY
▾
Brown cites an FT article stating Blue Owl (OWL) will "permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash" from a retail debt fund. He also notes that many private credit funds have ~26% exposure to software companies, which are currently seeing volatile repricing. The combination of liquidity gates (investors can't get out) and exposure to a sector facing headwinds (software/SaaS) creates a systemic risk for private credit vehicles. If software valuations compress, the underlying collateral for these loans deteriorates while investors are locked in. WATCH / AVOID Private Credit (specifically retail-facing vehicles like OWL) due to liquidity and collateral risks. The "soft landing" occurs, software rebounds, and liquidity pressures ease.
BKLN WATCH
OWL WATCH
Hooper states their 2026 outlook favors "emerging markets and favoring developed ex-US." She notes US valuations are stretched while international markets have catalysts. Specifically, Japan has a new PM focused on "fiscal stimulus," and Germany is ramping up "defense and infrastructure spending" due to geopolitical threats. US growth rests on "fragile pillars" (AI capex and high-end consumers). If the US slows or enters a modest recession, capital will rotate to regions with active fiscal support and lower valuations (Japan/Europe). LONG International Equities (specifically Japan and Germany) as a valuation and stimulus play. Global recession drags down all equities; stimulus measures fail to materialize.
EWJ LONG
EFA LONG
Hooper notes that 2025 growth was driven by "AI capex spending." However, she warns of "speed bumps" for 2026: NIMBYism, power costs, and borrowing constraints. She points out MSFT has underperformed the S&P 500 since Nov 2022 despite the AI boom. If companies decide to "slow down and see the results before we throw more money at this," the primary driver of US economic growth (AI Capex) evaporates. This makes the Hyperscalers vulnerable to a rerating if spending pauses. NEUTRAL / WATCH. The "murder mystery" phase implies picking winners is hard; blind exposure to the group is risky. AI delivers productivity gains faster than expected, justifying continued massive capex.
MSFT NEUTRAL
SKYY NEUTRAL
Hooper notes that Europe, particularly Germany, has a "very real and immediate reason to increase defense and infrastructure spending" due to the Russia threat. Regardless of the economic cycle, geopolitical reality forces European governments to spend on defense. This provides a non-cyclical floor for defense contractors and infrastructure companies in the region. LONG European Defense/Infrastructure beneficiaries. Geopolitical tensions de-escalate significantly (unlikely in short term).
ITA LONG
EWG LONG
18:25
Feb 18
Feb 18
SPY
VOO
VXUS
EFA
GLD
▾
Ben argues that high valuations are not a valid reason to pause Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). He cites 2017 when the CAPE ratio hit "twice in history" highs, yet the S&P 500 subsequently rallied 230%. Investors fearing a crash due to P/E expansion are misinterpreting the metric. Valuations set long-term expectations but fail as timing signals. Therefore, broadly diversified US equity exposure should be maintained regardless of current premium pricing. Long US Large Cap indices via DCA. A genuine earnings recession or structural shift in the economy that compresses multiples independent of sentiment.
SPY LONG
VOO LONG
Ben notes that in "weak dollar regimes," International stocks tend to outperform US stocks significantly. He explicitly adds, "Gold outperforms by a ton when the dollar is down." The current environment (referenced by the viewer's currency drag and Ben's charts) suggests a shifting currency regime. If the USD continues to decline or remains weak, the multi-year tailwind for US stocks reverses, favoring assets denominated in foreign currencies and hard assets like Gold. Long International Developed Markets and Gold as a hedge against USD devaluation. A resurgence in the US Dollar (DXY) due to a "flight to safety" event or hawkish Fed policy relative to other central banks.
VXUS LONG
EFA LONG
GLD LONG
14:00
Feb 18
Feb 18
EWJ
CRM
NOW
SPGI
SCHW
▾
Japanese bond yields are hitting records, and inflation is rising, yet the stock market is surging. Contrary to the fear that rising rates will break Japan, this signals the end of financial repression. The economy is normalizing, allowing for inflation and growth, which is driving equity performance (outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 5 years). Bullish on the structural changes in the Japanese economy. A rapid spike in yields could cause short-term volatility or currency instability.
EWJ LONG
Software stocks like Salesforce and ServiceNow have crashed recently due to fears that AI will replace their business models (the "AI killing SaaS" narrative). The market is over-extrapolating. Enterprise buyers don't just buy software for features; they buy it for "career risk" management (i.e., "You don't get fired for buying Salesforce"). Incumbents have distribution, data, and support teams that a "vibecoded app" created over a weekend cannot replicate. Michael bought these stocks during the drawdown, viewing the valuation compression as an overreaction to the AI threat. The stocks could remain "dead money" for years if the market refuses to re-rate them higher, or if AI actually does erode their seat-based pricing models faster than anticipated.
CRM LONG
NOW LONG
Michael distinguishes between software companies with "proprietary data/regulatory lock-in" versus those without. While generic data providers (like FactSet) might be at risk from LLMs, S&P Global has a regulatory moat. An AI cannot issue a credit rating that satisfies regulatory requirements; only a licensed agency can. Michael explicitly stated he plans to buy SPGI, viewing it as immune to the disruption facing generic SaaS. Regulatory changes or a shift in how credit analysis is consumed.
SPGI LONG
Schwab stock dropped 10% on news that a competitor (Altruist) released an AI tax tool. The market's reaction suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the industry. The idea that a single AI tax feature would dismantle the moats of massive custodians like Schwab, Raymond James, or LPL is "a joke." The sell-off is an irrational "recency bias" event where algorithms are selling on AI headlines without understanding the business durability. Continued algorithmic selling or genuine disruption in wealth management fees over the very long term.
SCHW LONG
RJF LONG
LPLA LONG
Michael mentioned he "finally pulled the trigger" on Netflix during a drawdown. Despite the competitive landscape, Netflix has won the streaming wars. The thesis parallels the "prediction market" consolidation where too much competition eventually favors the dominant incumbent. Long the winner of the streaming sector. Consumer spending slowdown or saturation in subscriber growth.
NFLX LONG
DraftKings reported earnings and showed prediction markets (like Polymarket) currently have only 1% wallet share, but the stock got "smoked" (down ~60% drawdown). While currently small, prediction markets are in a "super cycle" (according to Robinhood's CEO) and could cannibalize sports betting wallet share over time because they offer better odds/utility than traditional sportsbooks. Cautionary stance as the stock price reacts negatively despite revenue growth, potentially signaling fear of this new competitive threat. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets could send users back to traditional sportsbooks.
DKNG WATCH
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated we are at the beginning of a "prediction market super cycle" that could drive trillions in volume. Robinhood is positioning itself to capture this volume, viewing prediction markets as a new asset class that fits their retail trader demographic. Bullish on Robinhood's ability to integrate and monetize this new trend. Regulatory hurdles for prediction markets in the US.
HOOD LONG
Silver is down significantly (crashing) while other assets move. Michael admits to losing money on this trade ("Software and Silver" are his current pain points). He characterizes the price action as "strange." The trade is not working; implied sentiment is frustration/avoidance until momentum changes. A sudden reversal in commodities could leave sellers behind.
SILVER AVOID
23:16
Feb 17
Feb 17
XLI
CAT
DE
RSP
EWJ
▾
"Industrials [earnings growth] 26%... This is your earth movers... heavy equipment... building data centers... It's not just a rerate. There is something happening here with capex that's leading to higher revenue." The "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) thesis suggests capital is rotating out of asset-light software into asset-heavy companies building the physical infrastructure for AI and energy. These companies have tangible moats and are currently delivering the highest earnings growth in the market. LONG Industrials and heavy machinery stocks as the primary beneficiaries of the infrastructure boom. A slowdown in global CapEx spending or a recession curbing construction demand.
XLI LONG
CAT LONG
DE LONG
XLB LONG
"The Mag 7 is down over 6% this year. The 493 is up almost 4%... the equal weight S&P, that's RSP, is up almost 6%." The market is broadening. Investors are no longer waiting for Tech to recover; they are actively diversifying into the "average" stock. If this spread continues, it will force passive flows and advisor allocations away from market-cap weighted concentration into broader exposure. LONG Equal Weight S&P 500 to capture the rotation into the broader market. A resurgence of Mag 7 dominance reversing the rotation.
RSP LONG
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
EWJ LONG
EWG LONG
"Apple could be the stock of the year... They are going to launch an Agentic Siri this year... telling Siri to go into the hundreds of apps on your phone and do things across those apps." Apple has underperformed due to a lack of "AI hype," but they own the distribution (2 billion devices). By launching an "Agentic" AI that controls other apps, they make standalone LLMs (like ChatGPT) features rather than platforms. They avoided massive CapEx spend and are positioned to capture the consumer AI interface. LONG Apple as a contrarian AI play with a major catalyst (Agentic Siri) expected in May or September. If the AI launch underwhelms or Siri remains "useless" compared to competitors.
AAPL LONG
"The valuation of the software industry has undergone a sharp correction. PE topped out a year ago at 51 times earnings and now it's 27... The vertical software companies... this is the Pincer move from above [and below]." Software is "Ground Zero" for AI disruption. Vertical SaaS is being squeezed by frontier models (Anthropic/OpenAI) offering capabilities for free, and cheap AI startups undercutting pricing. Despite lower valuations, the obsolescence risk is too high. AVOID Legacy SaaS and Vertical Software stocks lacking proprietary data or "system of record" status. Software stocks could rebound if they successfully integrate AI to reduce costs and boost margins.
IGV AVOID
"Energy is the best performing sector on the year so far... no fundamental benefit whatsoever. That's pure multiple... The market's looking forward toward either higher oil prices or increased demand for electricity." Energy stocks are rallying on sentiment (AI power demand) rather than current earnings (which are flat). While the momentum is strong, the lack of fundamental earnings growth makes this a momentum trade rather than a value trade currently. WATCH Energy for confirmation of earnings growth to justify the multiple expansion. Oil prices falling or the "AI power demand" narrative fading.
XLE WATCH
14:01
Feb 13
Feb 13
CBRE
JLL
CWK
CHRW
JBHT
▾
These commercial real estate service firms (CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle, Cushman & Wakefield) were sold off aggressively (market cap wiped out) because the market assumes AI chatbots will replace their brokerage and data services. The selling is described as "indiscriminate" and "wild." The market is pricing in immediate obsolescence based on fear rather than earnings reality. These companies possess proprietary data and physical management capabilities that a chatbot cannot replicate. The sell-off represents a potential overreaction/mispricing due to AI panic. AI actually disrupts their brokerage moats faster than anticipated; commercial real estate macro headwinds persist.
CBRE WATCH
JLL WATCH
CWK WATCH
Logistics stocks like C.H. Robinson and J.B. Hunt lost billions in market cap because a penny stock (Algorithm Holdings/Karaoke company) announced an "AI freight product." The market is reacting to "tape bombs" and headlines from non-credible sources. If established logistics giants are selling off due to a penny stock press release, the selling is irrational and likely to mean-revert once the "threat" is debunked. Potential recovery play as the market realizes the "disruption" threat was noise. The freight recession continues; genuine AI disruption eventually emerges from credible competitors.
CHRW WATCH
JBHT WATCH
The stock previously crashed due to accounting delays and delisting fears. Hunterbrook's investigation found the technology (weapons detection) works effectively in schools/stadiums and the accounting error was de minimis ($4M). Currently, the stock is selling off again in sympathy with software stocks and Axon (AXON), despite Evolv being a hardware/infrastructure play. The speaker notes the market is "indiscriminate" and implies the current sell-off is unjustified given the product's sticky demand (school safety). Fundamental value play; the business is real and growing despite market perception of it being a "fraud" or "software" stock. Regulatory scrutiny (SEC/FTC) persists; management fails to execute the turnaround.
EVLV LONG
Sable Offshore faces massive regulatory hurdles in California to restart a pipeline. The stock was pumped by Phil Mickelson, but leaked audio revealed the CEO admitted a desperate need for capital. The company is "not telling the truth" to the market regarding its timeline and capital needs. They have now received subpoenas from the SEC and SDNY following Hunterbrook's reporting. The company is structurally broken with regulatory headwinds and potential legal fraud issues. They somehow secure the capital or regulatory approval (highly unlikely given California politics).
SOC SHORT
The market viewed Sphere as a novelty dependent on U2 concerts. Hunterbrook's data analysis showed the "Wizard of Oz" show and other daily content were generating massive, high-margin revenue on non-concert days. Investors misunderstood the asset utilization rate. It is not just a concert venue; it is a cinema/experience printing money daily. The "Postcard from Earth" and other IP leverage existing content to generate high ROI. The asset is more profitable and sustainable than the initial "novelty" thesis suggested. Content fatigue; high operating costs of the venue.
SPHR LONG
The market is bifurcating into "disruptible" and "non-disruptible" stocks. Physical goods companies are insulated from Generative AI disruption. A chatbot cannot manufacture a physical liter of liquid. As fear grips the "disruptible" sectors (services, software), capital will flee to physical safety. Defensive rotation into tangible consumer staples. GLP-1 weight loss drugs impacting demand for sugary drinks.
PEP LONG
KO LONG
The stock spiked on a rumor from "ABC Money" about an acquisition, which Hunterbrook identified as a fake news site run by scammers in Dubai. This highlights the vulnerability of the market to "fake news" and algorithmic trading. While the specific trade is over, it serves as a signal to fade/short spikes based on unverified media reports from obscure outlets. Fade news-driven spikes from non-tier-1 sources. The rumor turns out to be a leak of a real deal (unlikely in this specific case, but generally).
PZZA WATCH
19:11
Feb 11
Feb 11
XLI
WDAY
DVN
XLP
MSFT
▾
"I am calling those the Halo stocks... heavy assets low obsolescence risk... Can Claude whip up a can of Diet Pepsi? No." In an AI-disrupted world, capital flees replicable code and flows to tangible, physical assets that AI cannot generate. Companies that move atoms (airlines, manufacturers, staples) have a moat that software companies no longer possess. Long "Halo Stocks" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). Global recession reducing demand for physical goods/commodities.
XLI LONG
XLP LONG
XLB LONG
"We are separating the market into two camps... Information merchants... and legacy platforms... the value of selling information to people is declining at a precipitous rate." For 15 years, the market fetishized "asset-light" software models. AI has flipped this. If AI reduces corporate headcount, the "per-seat" pricing model (SaaS) of companies like Salesforce and Workday collapses because there are fewer humans to sell subscriptions to. Furthermore, AI can replicate "information merchant" value propositions cheaply. Avoid "Vertical Market Software" and companies selling pure IP/Information; they are the "losers" in the AI shift. AI adoption might be slower than expected, or these companies successfully pivot to consumption-based pricing.
WDAY AVOID
FDS AVOID
IGV AVOID
CRM AVOID
NOW AVOID
SPGI AVOID
MNDY AVOID
"I bought Devon Energy last week... hit the best stocks in the market list." Energy stocks have been excluded from the market rally for two years and are now breaking out technically. Brown entered based on a technical setup and is managing it as a trade by raising trailing stops (currently at $40). Long as a technical trade, riding momentum. Oil price collapse or technical trendline breakdown.
DVN LONG
"Microsoft is a data center business... Azure." While generic SaaS is at risk, Microsoft owns the compute infrastructure (Azure) required to run the AI disrupting everyone else. It should not be lumped in with the "software crash" basket because it is effectively an infrastructure/utility play on AI workloads. Differentiate Microsoft from the broader software sell-off; it remains a core infrastructure holding. AI capex spend slows down without ROI.
MSFT LONG
"We have apartment building gluts in Nashville in Austin... takes four years to bring that stuff online." The multifamily real estate market is efficient at creating supply, leading to gluts in specific hot markets. While this hurts rental prices, it highlights that large players (like Blackstone) own the assets, and regional oversupply is a specific risk to watch in the housing sector. Be cautious of multifamily exposure in specific overbuilt metros (Austin/Nashville). Interest rates drop significantly, reigniting demand and absorbing supply.
BX WATCH
"I sold 85% of my position... This is going to be two years of slop." Netflix won the streaming wars against legacy media (Disney/HBO), but the prize is a new war against YouTube (GOOGL) for attention. Additionally, the pending merger/acquisition activity introduces massive execution risk, labor disputes, and union issues (Director's Guild/SAG) that will weigh on the stock. The stock will be "under a boulder" due to deal complexity and saturation. Netflix successfully integrates acquisitions faster than anticipated or creates a "must-have" content monopoly.
NFLX AVOID
"I did that same trade with Exxon at 119... I'm starting to think about Exxon maybe being a long-term holding." The strength of the move in a mega-cap like Exxon suggests a regime change. Brown views this not just as a trade, but potentially the start of a 7-year bull market in energy, prompting a shift from "trading with stops" to "investing for the long haul." Long-term hold. Global energy demand destruction or regulatory shifts.
XOM LONG
14:01
Feb 11
Feb 11
BX
MSFT
OWL
ARCC
COST
▾
Alternative asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR, and Blue Owl (OWL) have sold off (OWL down ~50%) due to fears over their Private Credit exposure to software companies. The market is pricing in a systemic failure of software loans within private credit portfolios. Michael views this contagion fear as "way overdone" for the top-tier managers. Blackstone specifically is a "screaming buy" at these levels. Significant defaults in private software loans.
BX LONG
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently.
MSFT LONG
IGV LONG
BDCs and Private Credit firms have high exposure to software loans (ARCC has 24% in software/services; industry average ~22%). If the "death of SaaS" narrative gains traction, the collateral backing these loans (recurring revenue software businesses) becomes questionable. Be cautious of BDCs with heavy software exposure during this sentiment shift. Software companies prove resilient; default rates remain low.
OWL WATCH
ARCC WATCH
Walmart trades at 46x PE; Costco at 54x PE. The forward PE of the Consumer Staples sector is now at parity with the Tech sector. Investors are rushing into "safety" (Staples) as an "anti-AI trade," pushing valuations to nonsensical levels. Paying 50x earnings for low-growth staples is historically dangerous. While momentum is strong, the valuation risk is extreme ("crazy"). Momentum continues as investors flee volatility in tech.
COST AVOID
WMT AVOID
Bitcoin crashed to the $60k range, and sentiment is described as "the worst ever." Put volume and share volume spiked, indicating capitulation. This is a classic "liquidation break." Michael prefers buying into panic selling where sellers are exhausted. Tactical long (bought IBIT at $66k). Plan to sell on a bounce to $72k or stop out at $63k. If it crashes to $50k, he would buy for the long term. Crypto continues to trade like a high-beta software stock (correlation with IGV is high).
IBIT LONG
BTC LONG
C.H. Robinson is a logistics company using AI to match drivers with trucks more efficiently. The stock chart has gone "parabolic." Unlike companies just talking about AI, CHRW is demonstrating actual "AI-driven economic gains." It is a real-world beneficiary of the productivity boom. Long momentum in companies proving AI ROI. Cyclical downturn in shipping/logistics.
CHRW LONG
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
EFA LONG
23:24
Feb 10
Feb 10
SPOT
JNJ
CRM
WDAY
NOW
▾
Spotify reported strong earnings: 300M+ paying subs, ad revenue up, and margins expanding. Despite competition from YouTube/Netflix, Spotify has immense pricing power and "churn resistance"—it is one of the last subscriptions consumers cancel. It has effectively won the audio war. LONG. The business is executing perfectly, and the market is rewarding the "stickiness" of the user base. Valuation is high (60x earnings), making it vulnerable to general market multiple compression.
SPOT LONG
Investors are fleeing asset-light businesses due to AI disruption fears. Brown identifies "HALO" stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) as the new leadership. An LLM cannot replicate a physical bag of Fritos (Pepsi), refine gasoline (Valero), or pour concrete (Martin Marietta). These companies have "moats of physics" that AI cannot cross. LONG. These sectors (Energy, Industrials, Staples) are seeing massive inflows as "refugees" from the SaaS crash seek safety in non-disruptible cash flows. Some names (like KO) are becoming technically overbought (RSI 85+), suggesting a short-term pullback is likely within a longer uptrend.
JNJ LONG
UPS LONG
BAC LONG
CVX LONG
CAT LONG
CSCO LONG
GE LONG
KO LONG
MRK LONG
PM LONG
MCD LONG
VZ LONG
VLO LONG
MLM LONG
Goldman Sachs compares the current software sell-off to the newspaper industry's 95% decline in the early 2000s. The market is pricing in a future where AI agents replace enterprise software seats (e.g., "Open heart surgery to replace Salesforce"). Even if earnings are good now, the terminal value is being questioned, preventing multiple expansion. AVOID. While bounces will occur (oversold conditions), the narrative damage is severe. Rallies are likely to be sold until these companies prove they are immune to AI displacement. The sell-off may be an overreaction; if these companies successfully integrate AI and prove resilience, they could V-shape recover.
CRM AVOID
WDAY AVOID
NOW AVOID
MNDY AVOID
IGV AVOID
Marriott and Hilton are hitting all-time highs while the broader tech market struggles. These are "HALO" adjacent—they control physical inventory (rooms) via loyalty programs. The consumer is spending on experiences, and you cannot sleep in a virtual hotel room. LONG. They benefit from strong consumer spending without the inventory risk (asset-light franchise models) and are immune to digital displacement. A sharp recession curbing consumer discretionary spending.
MAR LONG
HLT LONG
Expedia stock has been hammered and looks nothing like the charts of the hotels (MAR/HLT). Expedia is a digital middleman. Investors fear AI agents will disintermediate booking platforms (e.g., "Claude, book me a hotel") rendering the aggregator model obsolete. AVOID. The market views their business model as highly disruptible compared to the actual hotel operators. Earnings surprise to the upside could trigger a short squeeze.
EXPE AVOID
IMAX is projecting its best year in history (2026) with record box office numbers driven by franchises like Avatar and Dune. This is the ultimate "HALO" stock. You cannot replicate the 70mm physical theater experience on a phone or headset. It is a physical destination event that is growing in popularity among younger demographics (25-34). LONG. The stock is working, guidance is strong, and it provides insulation from the AI narrative. A lack of blockbuster content in future slates or a general decline in cinema attendance.
IMAX LONG
Schwab and Raymond James dropped ~10% simply because a small competitor (Altruist) launched an AI tax tool. This indicates extreme market fragility and "shoot first" algorithmic selling regarding AI disruption in financials. The market is terrified that legacy wealth management is the next "newspaper" industry. WATCH. These drops are likely overreactions (creating tactical buying opportunities), but they signal a dangerous sentiment shift against legacy financial firms. If AI tools actually start draining assets from these custodians, the repricing is justified.
SCHW WATCH
RJF WATCH
Robinhood stock has crashed (~50% drop in this scenario) despite record options revenue and massive margin interest income ($196M in a quarter). The business is fundamentally strong and growing market share, but the stock is being punished for its correlation to a crashing crypto market and declining monthly active users. NEUTRAL. The business is "doing a good job," but the price action is broken, and the crypto headwind is too strong to fight right now. Regulatory crackdowns or a further collapse in crypto prices.
HOOD NEUTRAL
14:01
Feb 06
Feb 06
IGV
VLO
MPC
PSX
MSFT
▾
Josh explicitly stated, "I bought IGV today." He notes that software stocks have seen liquidation-level selling (down 18% in 7 days), a magnitude only seen during the 2008 crisis and the 2022 crash. This is a "falling knife" trade based on market structure, not necessarily fundamentals. When a specific sector is liquidated indiscriminately while the broader market holds up, it often signals a short-term capitulation bottom. LONG (Tactical/Contrarian). The "AI displacement" thesis could be structurally true, meaning these software companies are value traps that will continue to lose pricing power.
IGV LONG
Mowrey is bullish on refiners, noting they are growing earnings at 40% (faster than the Nasdaq) due to healthy crack spreads. Josh Brown adds that he has been "pounding the table" on these names (Marathon, Valero, Phillips 66) based on technical accumulation. The market misunderstands these as "dirty value" stocks, but they are currently high-growth momentum names with fundamental support. The "peer group" logic suggests they are undervalued relative to their cash flow generation. LONG. A global recession or a sharp drop in crack spreads (refining margins) would instantly invert the earnings growth story.
VLO LONG
MPC LONG
PSX LONG
Despite the software sell-off, Josh asserts, "If you are selling Microsoft today, take your hands off the keyboard." Mowrey confirms, "We own Microsoft." Microsoft is being dragged down with the broader software/AI skepticism, but it is the utility-like monopoly of the sector. It is currently trading at a reasonable valuation (approx. 30x) compared to the low-growth Staples sector (23x) that investors are fleeing into. LONG. Continued multiple compression in the mega-cap tech space if rates stay higher for longer.
MSFT LONG
Mowrey points out that Consumer Staples are trading at peak multiples (23x forward P/E) despite many having negative or flat earnings estimate revisions. Investors are paying a "fear premium" for safety. They are buying these stocks solely because they are "real things" (defensive), ignoring that they are paying tech-like multiples for utility-like growth. This creates a valuation air pocket if the "safety trade" unwinds. AVOID. If the economy enters a hard recession, Staples may still outperform on a relative basis due to consistent demand, even if expensive.
XLP AVOID
WMT AVOID
COST AVOID
WTI AVOID
Mowrey is overweight Materials and specifically discusses Gold Miners. He explains that once gold prices pass a certain threshold, miners become "money printing machines" due to fixed costs. Operating Leverage. If a miner's cost is fixed at $1,600/oz and gold moves from $2,000 to $2,400, the profit margin expands disproportionately (e.g., earnings double on a 20% move in the commodity). Current gold prices suggest miners could grow earnings 130-140%. LONG. A sharp reversal in gold prices would immediately crush the earnings growth thesis, as miners are a levered bet on the metal.
GDX LONG
NEM LONG
Mowrey is overweight Financials, specifically noting Regional Banks are growing earnings at 30% and valuations reset to 2008 levels during the 2023 crisis. The 2023 banking crisis was a "liability crisis" (rates up, bond portfolios down), not an "asset crisis" (bad loans) like 2008. With the yield curve normalizing and the economy holding up, these banks are re-rating from distressed levels. LONG. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposure remains a significant overhang for regional bank balance sheets.
KRE LONG
Josh explicitly stated, "I bought Bitcoin at 66,000 today." This is a pure "panic buy" strategy. He identifies the current price action as a liquidation event (falling knife) and is stepping in to provide liquidity during a washout, betting on a mean reversion bounce. LONG (Tactical). Bitcoin has no fundamental floor (no earnings/cash flow), so liquidation can extend significantly further than in equities.
BTC LONG
18:57
Feb 04
Feb 04
SPY
VTI
XLV
UNH
▾
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
SPY LONG
VTI LONG
"I have watched our health insurance increase at roughly 8% a year for the last almost 10 years... The average premium for a health insurance plan across the United States... is $27,000." Sweet notes that these margins "are paying people's jobs" and the system is entrenched despite regulation. Persistent 8% annual inflation in premiums translates directly to compounding revenue growth for major health insurers and providers. The inability to fix the system implies pricing power remains with the incumbents. LONG Healthcare sector and major insurers who are passing these costs on to employers/consumers. Regulatory intervention or a complete overhaul of the US healthcare system (though the speakers deem this unlikely).
XLV LONG
UNH LONG
Choose Sources
Loading sources...