Jonathan Boyar 5.0 4 ideas

Uber has the largest ride-hailing and delivery network, is forming capital-light partnerships with multiple autonomous vehicle (AV) players (Lucid, Rivian, Pony.AI), and is a cash flow machine. The stock is disliked due to fears of competition from Waymo. In AVs, the largest network will win. Uber's strategy of fostering a multi-OEM AV ecosystem positions it to aggregate supply and meet demand, unlike a scenario where one company (e.g., Waymo) owns all vehicles. Its cross-platform data (rides + delivery) and Uber One membership create a durable competitive moat. LONG because it is the best-positioned logistics platform for the AV future and is currently undervalued as the market misprices this strategic advantage. Waymo or another single player achieves overwhelming market share and bypasses Uber's platform entirely, making its network irrelevant.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is a high-quality, family-controlled consumer staples company. It trades at ~9.5x EBITDA, a discount to its historical multiple (12-13x). The 69-year-old founder/controller is heavily involved, and the company suffered from a costly foray into cannabis. The discounted valuation, aging controlling shareholder, and recent business struggles create a scenario where the controlling family may be motivated to sell the company to realize value. WATCH for a potential corporate action (sale) catalyst that could realize the valuation gap. The current price offers an attractive entry point if the catalyst materializes. The family decides against a sale, opting to maintain control indefinitely. The core business faces new headwinds that further compress earnings.

Salesforce (CRM) is trading at 13-14x forward earnings, a historically cheap valuation. It is critically ingrained as the "system of record" in many regulated business processes. Activist investors like Starboard Value have taken positions. Its entrenched position in regulated industries (e.g., healthcare) provides durable revenue and high switching costs, protecting it from AI disruption. Activist involvement pressures management to improve capital allocation and profitability. LONG due to a wide margin of safety at current prices, durable competitive advantages, and catalysts from both operational improvement and shareholder activism. The company fails to demonstrate that its AI investments are improving earnings, leading to prolonged growth stagnation and a "value trap."

MSGS (Madison Square Garden Sports) has an $8B enterprise value versus a combined Forbes valuation of $14.75B for the NY Knicks and Rangers. Management is exploring a spin-off into two separate publicly traded teams (Knicks & Rangers). A tax rule change effective after 2027 will prevent public companies from deducting the salaries of their top-five employees. The spin-off would unlock the underlying asset value for shareholders. The impending tax rule makes public ownership of a sports team with high-player salaries financially untenable, forcing a sale or going private. LONG due to a significant valuation gap and two clear, company-specific catalysts (corporate action and regulatory change) that should close it. Controlling shareholder James Dolan may not execute the spin-off optimally or may delay action. The market may not assign full private market values to the standalone teams post-spin.