Jan van Eck

Jan van Eck, managing $230 billion AUM, argues the 60/40 portfolio is dead and advocates a 10% allocation to hard assets, which for him primarily means gold and bitcoin. He says don't get cute or try to pick the bottom: just get the position and sit.

Bitcoin has bottomed and is heading toward all-time highs again, though the move may be slow. He was bearish entering the year because of the four-year halving cycle but said buy in Q2; he remains long-term bullish given BlackRock adoption, the asset being somewhat forgotten, and risks now largely priced in. The rally has started.

Bitcoin has bottomed and is heading toward all-time highs again, though the move may be slow. He was bearish entering the year because of the four-year halving cycle but said buy in Q2; he remains long-term bullish given BlackRock adoption, the asset being somewhat forgotten, and risks now largely priced in. The rally has started.

At current yields, long-end municipal bonds offer high-single-digit yields that can compete against equities and other portfolio assets, making them attractive.

He remains overweight AI and semiconductors. AI safety fear-mongering is wrong and dangerous; neither China nor the US will hold back AI development, and responsible industry dialogue and protections should not interfere with Anthropic's IPO. VanEck is also a large Nvidia shareholder as part of the exposure.

Even though he is a longtime deficit bear and market timing is difficult, with sentiment so negative on bonds and the 10-year yield potentially reaching 5%, 5.5%, or 6%, the contrarian case is to buy bonds; high long-end yields make fixed income competitive.

Nvidia is a blue chip survivor because of its CUDA software ecosystem, founder-led innovation, and its ability to drive costs down like Walmart. It has durable competitive advantages and will remain a key provider of AI compute. The stock is transitioning from hypergrowth to a blue chip investor base.

"Shale production can't be increasing the way it has keeping up with global growth... That's why oil is up 37% this year." + "Kharg Island... It's where 90% of Iran's oil gets exported out of. That is a choke point." The speaker outlines a dual-bullish thesis. First, a structural supply deficit exists because US shale is tapping out. Second, a geopolitical supply shock is imminent if the US targets Kharg Island to cut off Iran's revenue. Tighter supply meets steady demand, driving prices higher. Long Oil (USO) and Energy Equities (XLE) to capture the supply/demand imbalance. A sudden diplomatic resolution or regime change in Iran that leads to sanctions relief and floods the market with 3 million barrels/day (though speaker deems the "who runs Iran" question irrelevant if demilitarized).

"Shale production can't be increasing the way it has keeping up with global growth... That's why oil is up 37% this year." + "Kharg Island... It's where 90% of Iran's oil gets exported out of. That is a choke point." The speaker outlines a dual-bullish thesis. First, a structural supply deficit exists because US shale is tapping out. Second, a geopolitical supply shock is imminent if the US targets Kharg Island to cut off Iran's revenue. Tighter supply meets steady demand, driving prices higher. Long Oil (USO) and Energy Equities (XLE) to capture the supply/demand imbalance. A sudden diplomatic resolution or regime change in Iran that leads to sanctions relief and floods the market with 3 million barrels/day (though speaker deems the "who runs Iran" question irrelevant if demilitarized).