Small-cap earnings (Russell 2000) are at the very beginning of a recovery after a three-year manufacturing recession. ISM new orders have inflected higher, and earnings for non-earners are flipping positive. This cycle has just started and could persist for years, supported by a broader manufacturing recovery.
Semiconductors have rallied 70-100% but this is backed by unprecedented earnings growth, not speculation. The price move is exactly in line with earnings, and valuation is in the bottom quartile historically, historically leading to 70% odds of further outperformance over the next 12 months. The business cycle may have lengthened, making the current run more sustainable.
The S&P 500 is experiencing rare multiple compression while earnings grow strongly, creating a favorable setup. Investor fear remains elevated (low VIX relative to history, high put/call ratio), and valuations are not a reliable timing signal. The market is sober and can continue to climb the wall of worry as long as earnings hold up.