Why Nvidia is Going to 10 Trillion Dollars | TCAF 239

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 24, 2026 at 13:00  |  1:28:34  |  The Compound News
Speakers
Adam Parker — Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey
Rob Sechan — Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth

Summary

The episode covers the bearish outlook for software stocks and the justified rally in semiconductors, with guests Adam Parker and Rob Sechan debating market concentration and AI tailwinds. Rob presents summer stock picks (AVGO, LRCX, NRG, APA, GILD) and a bullish case for BMNR (Ethereum treasury company). Adam Parker argues Nvidia will reach $10 trillion by 2030 and recommends going long semiconductors while shorting software.

  • Software stocks remain under pressure as earnings and margins face headwinds from AI spending and customer pricing power.
  • Semiconductor rally is justified by massive earnings growth and demand for AI infrastructure.
  • Market breadth is narrow but historical breadth indicators are not predictive for timing.
  • Spinoffs historically outperform remaincos, but few have been completed recently.
  • Rob Sechan's summer picks include Broadcom, Lam Research, NRG, APA, and Gilead.
  • Adam Parker is overweight healthcare, expecting AI productivity gains and low correlation to tech.
  • Rob is bullish on BMNR as an Ethereum treasury company offering staking yield and venture investments.
  • Adam Parker believes Nvidia's CUDA moat and cash flow will drive a $10 trillion market cap by 2030.
Trade Ideas
Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 8:25
Short software, long semiconductors trade.
The trend of being short software and long semiconductors will persist because software multiples have contracted but earnings will continue to miss as customers pressure pricing and AI spending shifts; semis are justified by massive earnings growth.
SMH HIGH
Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 8:25
Short software, long semiconductors trade.
The trend of being short software and long semiconductors will persist because software multiples have contracted but earnings will continue to miss as customers pressure pricing and AI spending shifts; semis are justified by massive earnings growth.
IGV HIGH
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 39:50
Buy GP stocks KKR and Blackstone.
General partner equities like KKR and Blackstone are better than private credit products because the stocks have been cut in half while the underlying credit trades at par, offering a discount on a two-year view.
KKR BX MED
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 56:13
Broadcom benefits from hyperscaler AI spending.
Broadcom is positioned to win as hyperscalers increase spending on custom silicon and data center networking; 60% revenue growth, industry-leading profitability, and strong momentum justify owning the stock even at all-time highs.
AVGO HIGH
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 57:30
Lam Research is a chip equipment monopoly.
Lam Research controls the chip manufacturing equipment market with an effective monopoly; essential for semiconductor fabrication and has rallied 170% since last August but still has upside.
LRCX HIGH
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 57:44
NRG rides AI power bottleneck.
NRG is a derivative beneficiary of AI power demand, converting natural gas to electricity for data centers via unique 'bring your own power' deals; trading at 16x earnings with room to run.
NRG MED
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 58:37
APA offers cheap energy exposure with yield.
APA is a diversified energy producer with 12% total yield (buybacks and dividends), trades at 7x earnings, and benefits from US production and potential Middle East crisis as a tail hedge.
APA MED
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 59:23
Gilead has strong HIV franchise and pipeline.
Gilead is dominant in HIV, has a strong oncology pipeline with 50 drugs in development, and offers upside as pipeline progress unfolds; a stable healthcare name in an expensive market.
GILD MED
Rob Sechan Managing Partner, NewEdge Wealth 76:27
BMNR offers Ethereum yield and upside.
BMNR (Bitmine) holds Ethereum and generates staking yield (3-4%), plus investments in moonshots like MrBeast; it is a bridge for institutions to access Ethereum's infrastructure and earn yield, not just price appreciation.
BMNR HIGH
Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 81:40
Nvidia to $10 trillion by 2030.
Nvidia will reach a $10 trillion market cap by end of decade due to CUDA lock-in, 15% annual growth over 5 years, revenue at least doubling, massive cash flow, and difficulty for competitors to displace the platform.
NVDA HIGH
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This The Compound News video, published April 24, 2026, features Adam Parker, Rob Sechan discussing SMH, IGV, KKR, BX, AVGO, LRCX, NRG, APA, GILD, BMNR, NVDA. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Adam Parker, Rob Sechan  · Tickers: SMH, IGV, KKR, BX, AVGO, LRCX, NRG, APA, GILD, BMNR, NVDA