Dan Greenhaus

Oil prices have a structural upward bias and will reach $120 a barrel with mathematical certainty due to rapidly depleting global oil inventories, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Greenhaus states "Big Tech has been a haven trade for some time," possessing superior growth and cash flow profiles, and that it's "hard to argue with" their fundamental performance. He argues that despite exhaustion in the trade, these companies keep delivering on fundamentals quarter after quarter, justifying their valuation premium. Their role in AI (e.g., Google defending search) is more determinative than rising energy costs. LONG because big tech (implied: the "Magnificent 7" / hyperscalers) is seen as a resilient, high-quality haven with durable growth drivers, even in a volatile macro environment. A severe economic downturn that crushes all earnings, or regulatory/political intervention that curtails their growth.

"We invest in the energy space, partially on the idea that the risk premium has ground to zero. That is now for the immediate future presumably not going to be zero anymore." The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and actual supply disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz blockades, refinery attacks) mean a geopolitical risk premium will be structurally priced back into oil and energy equities, lifting their baseline valuations. LONG because energy stocks will benefit from structurally higher oil prices due to the renewed geopolitical risk premium. A sudden peace agreement or massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release could cause oil prices to plummet, erasing the risk premium.

"We invest in the energy space, partially on the idea that the risk premium has ground to zero. That is now for the immediate future presumably not going to be zero anymore." The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and actual supply disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz blockades, refinery attacks) mean a geopolitical risk premium will be structurally priced back into oil and energy equities, lifting their baseline valuations. LONG because energy stocks will benefit from structurally higher oil prices due to the renewed geopolitical risk premium. A sudden peace agreement or massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release could cause oil prices to plummet, erasing the risk premium.

"We invest in the energy space, partially on the idea that the risk premium has ground to zero. That is now for the immediate future presumably not going to be zero anymore." The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and actual supply disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz blockades, refinery attacks) mean a geopolitical risk premium will be structurally priced back into oil and energy equities, lifting their baseline valuations. LONG because energy stocks will benefit from structurally higher oil prices due to the renewed geopolitical risk premium. A sudden peace agreement or massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release could cause oil prices to plummet, erasing the risk premium.