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15:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
XLF 1ST
JPM 1ST
▾
HIGH
US banks poised for exceptional year.
Major Wall Street banks are having their best year since 2021, with trading revenues up 60% at banks, some prop trading firms doubling revenue, very strong investment banking backlogs, potential for the biggest IPOs ever (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), and incentives/bonuses projected to rise 10-30% in many segments, indicating robust earnings momentum and strong shareholder returns for bank stocks.
XLF LONG
JPMorgan outpaced peers through talent investment.
JPMorgan Chase has dramatically outperformed peers over the past decade: its market cap now exceeds Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi combined, while it increased headcount by 30% by investing in talent and the right areas, a strategy that supported top-line growth and superior shareholder returns, making it a standout investment case.
JPM LONG
HIGH
15:23
Aug 05
Aug 05
Defense and Reindustrialization
▾
MED
Defense and data infrastructure offer huge opportunity.
National security and data infrastructure represent an enormous long-term opportunity with strong demand, driving Carlyle's new defense and reindustrialization platform. The firm sees a lot of demand for this strategy, viewing it as a major thematic growth area.
Defense and Reindustrialization LONG
MED
15:20
Aug 05
Aug 05
CNBC
3h
SPCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
SpaceX could become first $10 trillion company
SpaceX is not a single company but a vertical of four distinct businesses: global communications via Starlink (including direct satellite-to-cell with a $600B revenue opportunity), AI hyperscaler infrastructure (already $28B annualized revenue signed, building compute faster than anyone, aiming for 10+ gigawatts of compute), and others. Elon Musk’s execution and civilizational-scale infrastructure build give SpaceX the potential to become the first $10 trillion company. The market does not know how to value this diversified business and is likely underestimating its growth.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
14:52
Aug 05
Aug 05
GLD 1ST
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Hyperscaler corporate bonds (30-year)
TLT
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
▾
HIGH
Buy gold as inflation hedge
Gold is a good hedge against risk assets given lingering inflation concerns. Volatility is cheap, making options strategies like one-month spreads attractive, but buying gold is a straightforward hedge.
GLD LONG
Avoid 30-year U.S. Treasuries
The U.S. fiscal situation will keep demanding more capital, causing 30-year Treasury yields to stay elevated or rise further. The government will continue to issue debt, and bondholders are demanding higher real yields. Until fiscal discipline appears, the 30-year is unattractive relative to shorter maturities and hyperscaler credit.
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond AVOID
Buy hyperscaler 30-year credit
Hyperscaler corporate debt spreads have widened by 50–60 basis points year-to-date, providing much better compensation for credit risk. The balance sheets of large tech companies are pristine and can absorb the debt. The all-in yield is attractive, especially compared to 30-year Treasuries. There is enough spread protection even if yields move up.
Hyperscaler corporate bonds (30-year) LONG
Buy 5- and 10-year Treasuries
Core inflation is on track to move back toward the Fed’s 2% target by year-end, driven by lower shelter costs, weaker goods prices, and declining wage gains. The Fed is likely to stay on hold, and the market will take out the priced-in rate hikes. Shorter and intermediate rates should fall, making current real yields attractive on 5-year and 10-year Treasuries.
TLT LONG
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note LONG
Cybersecurity benefits from AI threats
AI is changing everything and making it easier for bad actors to execute data breaches and other cyberattacks. This creates an obvious and growing demand tailwind for cybersecurity solutions.
CIBR LONG
Large-cap tech will revert higher
Large-cap tech has been terrible since November of last year, underperforming the S&P 500, the Russell, and emerging markets. This group is now unloved and cheap relative to history, and that underperformance should revert as earnings power reasserts itself.
XLK LONG
Buy IG corporates for income
Investment-grade corporate bond yields have risen 50–60 basis points, and the income profile now looks much better. Stronger balance sheet companies offer attractive yields even without relying on spread compression. The income component provides a good hedge against potential further yield increases.
LQD LONG
S&P 500 will end higher
The rally feels hated, but strong broad-based earnings growth is the single best indicator. Most sectors are posting double-digit earnings growth, margins are expanding, and earnings momentum is still swinging higher. Cash balances remain elevated, providing fuel for further gains of 5–10% over the next 12 months.
SPY LONG
Muni bonds offer high after-tax yield
For high-tax-bracket individuals, municipal bonds now offer tax-equivalent yields of 5.5–6% in the 10-year part of the curve, driven by rate volatility and attractive absolute yields. This makes them a compelling income play.
MUB LONG
Hyperscaler stocks deliver on AI earnings
Hyperscalers are successfully turning massive capex investments into earnings, providing a degree of political insulation because of their strategic importance. The monetization story is tangible, and they remain attractive.
Hyperscaler Stocks LONG
Semiconductors will lead tech rebound
Positioning in tech was reduced from the 98th percentile to the 80th, and investors are now returning. Fundamental demand for semiconductors remains significant, the SOX index is still 16% off its highs and can retrace those losses. Risk metrics like absorption ratios and correlation surprises are not flashing red, suggesting the move has legs.
SOX LONG
Software benefits from AI monetization
Software companies are getting good commentary about monetizing AI exposures. While there is existential risk further out from model convergence, the near-term earnings and uptake look solid.
IGV LONG
Gold miners added to portfolio
Gold miners have been added to the recommendation list as a portfolio diversification and hedge, reflecting a more cautious but still constructive body language.
GDX LONG
HIGH
14:45
Aug 05
Aug 05
WTI
▾
HIGH
Oil normalization will take a long time.
The market has been correcting oil prices sharply on hopes of a quick diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the pace of normalization in oil markets will still take a long time and optimism is premature. Persistent supply risks from the chokepoint disruption will support oil prices.
WTI LONG
HIGH
14:12
Aug 05
Aug 05
CNBC
4h
AMD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Solid quarter, AI ramp in Q4.
AMD's Q2 results were solid, with revenue guide above consensus, EPS above, and gross margins in line. The stock fell due to heightened expectations following Intel's strong results, but the fundamental story remains positive. The AI ramp with Helios/Mi450 is a Q4 event that should drive a real inflection, data center should accelerate in the second half, and server CPU demand is very strong, favoring AMD's competitive products.
AMD LONG
HIGH
14:03
Aug 05
Aug 05
CNBC
4h
UBER
▾
HIGH
Uber's execution strong, consumer robust, AV future.
Uber's business continues to execute incredibly well, with gross bookings accelerating to 22% growth, adjusted EPS up 35% year-on-year, and record free cash flow of over $10 billion over the last 12 months. The U.S. consumer remains strong with no signs of trade-down, and the company is investing in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem through partnerships and its own balance sheet, which positions it for future growth.
UBER LONG
HIGH
14:02
Aug 05
Aug 05
DIS
▾
MED
DIS earnings news; no explicit buy/hold call.
Disney Q3 beat/news segment is positive company news, but the visible text/title does not contain explicit ownership, buy/hold language, or an actionable stock call.
DIS WATCH
MED
14:01
Aug 05
Aug 05
14:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
13:45
Aug 05
Aug 05
CNBC
4h
AMD
▾
MED
AMD CEO/news commentary; no explicit buy/hold call.
AMD CEO/interview segment describes strong AI demand and partnerships, but does not state explicit ownership, buy/hold language, or an actionable stock call.
AMD WATCH
MED
13:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
005930.KS
000660.KS
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Shareholder return card to break resistance
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix hold a powerful, yet-unused shareholder return policy card. They are likely deploying it not at the bottom, but when stock prices rise to critical resistance levels (e.g. Samsung 350,000 won) to break through. Both companies are under pressure from shareholders and unions, and will be forced to act, but they are engaged in a mutual waiting game. The timing of the announcement will be the decisive catalyst for a further leg up.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Buy AI stocks, Nvidia leads innovation
AI-related stocks must be bought. Nvidia is particularly strong because it not only leads in AI chips but is also expanding into biotech, logistics (Cosmos), and other areas, preparing the next growth engines while it is already doing extremely well.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
12:41
Aug 05
Aug 05
12:31
Aug 05
Aug 05
12:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
KOSDAQ 1ST
267260.KS
010120.KS 1ST
032500.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
KOSPI breakout above 6,800 targets 9,000.
If KOSPI strongly breaks through 6,800, it could trigger aggressive foreign short covering because a large amount of foreign short positions are concentrated around 6,600-6,800. This could lead to a rapid rally towards 7,300, and if the monthly 5-day moving average (currently around 7,300-7,400) is reclaimed this month, KOSPI would be on track to challenge 8,500-9,000 within the year. The sharp reduction in credit balances (down about 11 trillion won) has cleaned up weak hands, and improving macro conditions such as falling US bond yields, stable oil, and managed JPY strength support the bullish case.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ 920 breakout targets 1,200.
If KOSDAQ recovers to the 920 level (the July starting point), it would complete a key technical recovery and could then lead the broader market higher, potentially reaching 1,200 this year. KOSDAQ has historically led KOSPI during uptrends, so its strength would signal a broad-based rally rather than a narrow index move.
KOSDAQ LONG
Power equipment stocks strong on AI demand.
Korean transformer and power equipment companies are benefiting from sustained AI data center investments and China-related supply restrictions on polysilicon. The sector showed strong relative strength and is easier to pick than fragmented semiconductor small-caps. Hyundai Electric, LS Electric, and Hyosung Heavy Industries are key beneficiaries.
267260.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
Optical communication stocks gain on China restrictions.
US import data shows a surge in optical cable imports, likely due to pre-buying ahead of potential US restrictions on Chinese optical communication products. This near-term catalyst has lifted Korean optical communication stocks, including Daehan Gwangtongsin, RFHIC, HFR, and KMW.
032500.KQ LONG
023160 LONG
230240.KQ LONG
RFHIC LONG
Samsung and SK hynix core holdings for steadier gains.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix offer a simpler, lower-risk way to participate in the market recovery. While they may not deliver the highest returns compared to smaller sector plays, they are likely to provide 10-15% gains as the market climbs, and holding them avoids the complexity and risk of selecting among hundreds of semiconductor small-cap equipment stocks.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
SK Eternix and GNC Energy show energy strength.
Renewable energy and broader energy sectors showed surprising strength despite falling oil prices, suggesting policy-driven rotation. Within this move, SK Eternix and GNC Energy are specific names that could be expected to continue performing well.
GNC Energy LONG
475150.KS LONG
Avoid Hyundai Department Store on earnings shock.
Hyundai Department Store reported a major earnings shock because strong standalone department store results were dragged down by losses at subsidiaries in furniture and other consumer sectors. Moreover, the recent Korean won strength erodes the key narrative that a weak won attracts foreign luxury shoppers, making department store stocks like Hyundai Department Store less attractive.
069960.KS AVOID
HIGH
12:10
Aug 05
Aug 05
CNBC
6h
SPCX 1ST
AMZN 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
MSFT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid SpaceX near term on cash flow
SpaceX holds a structural monopoly-like advantage in rocket launches and space connectivity, with Starlink generating significant cash flow. Once free cash flow estimates stabilize and lockup expirations are past, the stock can materially outperform, supported by a large backlog and rapid revenue growth toward a trillion-dollar revenue potential.
SPCX AVOID
Own Amazon, Google, Microsoft for trillion-dollar revenues
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are on track to become trillion-dollar revenue generators around 2030, underpinned by extremely strong core structural and financial centers that fund growth investments.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
HIGH
11:57
Aug 05
Aug 05
AMD 1ST
SPY 1ST
WDAY
SMH 1ST
ACWX 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMD demand intact, selloff a reset.
AMD's revenue grew 50% year-on-year and underlying demand for GPUs and CPUs remains intact; the post-earnings selloff is a reset of overly optimistic estimates rather than a fundamental deterioration.
AMD LONG
US stocks fully priced, broaden exposure.
US equity markets are fully priced due to AI narrative complacency: credit spreads very low, earnings multiples very high, households heavily allocated to equities, and S&P 500 companies are net issuers; time to broaden, not outright bearish but the market is rich.
SPY AVOID
Workday mispriced on AI disruption fears.
Workday as a system-of-record software company owns proprietary data that AI cannot scrape; it is priced for disruption but AI will bring incremental business opportunities, creating value.
WDAY LONG
Hyperscaler capex peak hits semis profit.
Hyperscaler capex has grown to consume all of their cash flow, and is naturally reaching its limits; they are tapping debt markets and facing rising input costs (copper, DRAM), signaling semiconductor profit growth will moderate.
SMH AVOID
International equities undervalued vs US.
International equity valuations are more modest than US; they have been hit harder by energy prices and are discounting a worse Iran outcome; resolution would be more positively elastic for them, offering upside.
ACWX LONG
HIGH
11:47
Aug 05
Aug 05
MSFT
▾
MED
Microsoft monetizes AI investments immediately.
Microsoft can show an immediate profit from its AI spending, which contributed to its stock rising after earnings, while Meta's AI spending lacks near-term profit, causing shares to fall. This gives Microsoft a differentiated edge in monetizing AI capex.
MSFT LONG
MED
11:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
005930.KS
EWY
KOSDAQ 1ST
PLTR 1ST
Korean shipbuilding sector
▾
HIGH
Buy Samsung Electronics on every dip.
Samsung Electronics is fundamentally undervalued and not in an AI bubble. Its P/E is around 4x, ROE exceeds 50%, operating margins are above 50%, and both free cash flow and cash reserves are growing strongly. The company is repaying debt, inventory is declining, and capex is comfortably funded by operations. Reports that claim a semiconductor bubble are premature because there is no inventory buildup. This strong financial profile makes Samsung an attractive accumulation target on every dip.
005930.KS LONG
Korean market bottom confirmed, stabilizing.
The Korean equity market (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) has likely confirmed a bottom. Extreme volatility from single-stock leverage ETFs and the Leopold hedge fund margin call has receded. Individual investor buying on KOSDAQ has been positive, and the VIX-like fear gauge has fallen. The overall market is now moving toward stabilization and is likely to hold its lows.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ LONG
Palantir's AI profits are real.
Palantir's recent earnings were extremely strong, proving that AI data-service companies can generate enormous profits. Unlike Meta, which must borrow to invest, Palantir acts as a data intermediary and is already delivering big earnings, showing that the AI application layer is a real, profitable business.
PLTR LONG
Shipbuilders in virtuous profit cycle.
Korean shipbuilders have entered a virtuous cycle in which earlier low-price orders have now converted into clear profits, while new order backlogs continue to pile up, creating a sustained earnings tailwind.
Korean shipbuilding sector LONG
Transformer orders turn into profit.
Transformer and heavy-electrical companies, led by Hyosung Heavy Industries, have accumulated order backlogs exceeding 10 trillion won that are now converting into earnings, while still more new orders are stacking up. This creates a strong fundamental setup similar to the shipbuilding turnaround.
298690.KS LONG
HIGH
11:19
Aug 05
Aug 05
AMD FLIP
VGK
XLB 1ST
European industrials sector
EWG 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMD guidance underwhelms, expectations too high.
AMD posted 50% YoY revenue growth but expectations were even higher and guidance underwhelmed, causing the stock to sell off. The company is the sixth biggest points contributor to S&P 500 gains this year, so disappointment weighs heavily.
AMD AVOID
Europe set to outperform on broadening earnings.
European equities are set to outperform: Q2 earnings season shows broadening across sectors for the first time since 2022, with 15% YoY earnings growth. Fiscal stimulus in Europe and the diminishing risk of ECB rate hikes (aided by a potential Hormuz deal) create a constructive macro backdrop. Earnings revisions are near all-time highs, with 80% of sectors being upgraded.
VGK LONG
Cyclicals benefit from infrastructure and growth.
Within Europe, the cyclical sectors basic resources and industrials are preferred. They benefit from European infrastructure spending, global growth feeding into European companies, and the broadening earnings trend. These sectors offer positive second-order effects and are key to the European outperformance call.
XLB LONG
European industrials sector LONG
Avoid autos and luxury on China risk.
European autos and luxury goods are underweights. The negative factor from China on exports remains, and while there are signs of turning, the risk is not yet priced in enough. The strategy team stays underweight these consumer-exposed sectors.
EWG AVOID
LUX AVOID
Healthcare provides defensive hedge in Europe.
Healthcare is an idiosyncratic defensive sector and one of Citi's preferred hedges within a pro-cyclical portfolio. It serves as both a defensive hedge and an AI hedge because it is uncorrelated to the AI theme and has been doing well recently.
European healthcare sector LONG
Bearish oil setup; no explicit short.
Avoid WTI/oil exposure: video/news analysis says a Hormuz reopening and weaker Chinese crude demand could pressure oil prices, but it does not state an explicit short position, futures short, puts trade, or direct short call.
WTI AVOID
Bearish Brent/oil setup; no explicit short.
Avoid BNO/oil exposure: video/news analysis says a Hormuz reopening and weaker Chinese crude demand could pressure Brent/oil prices, but it does not state an explicit short position, puts trade, or direct short call.
BNO AVOID
Wegovy pill launch beats expectations, strong share.
The launch of the Wegovy weight-loss pill exceeded expectations, rapidly reaching one million prescriptions and capturing ~90% market share in the pill segment despite a competitor. The pill is driving huge volume at a decent price, profitability is improving as patients move to higher dosages, and the company plans further market launches. The obesity pipeline is strong, and the company remains the clear leader.
NVO LONG
AI data center demand drives record growth.
Infineon reported record Q3 revenue and guided for a much-stronger-than-seasonal final quarter. AI data center is the biggest growth driver in the company's history, with AI data center revenues expected to top $2.5 billion next year. The power chips segment and automotive momentum also contribute to a broad-based recovery.
IFX.DE LONG
Microsoft AI spend shows immediate profit.
Among the Big Tech AI spenders, Microsoft stands out because it can show immediate profit from its AI investments, whereas Meta's AI spending is mostly hopes and plans. Microsoft shares rose on earnings while Meta dropped 10%, reflecting investor preference for proven returns.
MSFT LONG
Bearish META AI-spend view; no explicit short.
Avoid META exposure: video/news discussion is bearish on Meta AI spending and market reaction, but does not state an explicit short position, puts trade, or direct short call.
META AVOID
HIGH
11:06
Aug 05
Aug 05
MSFT
GOOGL
SMH
Memory stocks
▾
HIGH
MSFT and GOOGL have proven AI monetization.
Microsoft and Alphabet have already crossed the AI monetization threshold. Investors have witnessed the switch from build-out to returns, and these companies are good examples where the near-term pain of heavy capex has turned into long-term gain. They have proven the AI thesis, unlike others that are still talking.
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
AI capex benefits chip and memory players.
The AI arms race forces massive capex spending, which directly benefits chip players and memory players. Costs are getting more expensive, and these suppliers are seeing strong demand because every player is chasing the same limited chips and memory in the build-out.
SMH LONG
Memory stocks LONG
HIGH
11:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
KOSDAQ Index
454910.KS 1ST
196170.KQ
086520.KQ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Market bottom confirmed, buy broadly now.
The KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices have confirmed a bottom escape signal. Today's 2%+ rally broke the medium-term downtrend line, qualifying as a follow-through day. Credit balances plunged by over 3 trillion won and the credit-to-deposit ratio dropped sharply, indicating forced selling has been cleared. Deposits rebounded to 110 trillion won, showing cash is returning. The extreme deleveraging and technical breakout suggest the market can now be bought broadly.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Buy oversold KOSDAQ large-cap rebound basket.
A wide range of oversold KOSDAQ large-cap and mid-cap stocks are now rebounding and making short-term highs, driven by a normalization of the abnormal crash. Robotics, biotech, secondary batteries, solar, shipbuilding, and semiconductor equipment and materials stocks are all catching the recovery flow, showing that money is spreading out from the previous concentrated tech leadership into a broad oversold rebound trade.
454910.KS LONG
196170.KQ LONG
086520.KQ LONG
247540.KQ LONG
009830.KS LONG
042660.KS LONG
009540.KS LONG
403870.KQ LONG
208890.KQ LONG
Hyundai E&C benefits from Middle East reconstruction.
Hyundai Engineering & Construction is set to benefit from expectations of reconstruction business in the Middle East. The stock is turning from a bottom and making short-term new highs, supported by this specific catalyst beyond the general oversold rebound.
000720.KS LONG
Watch NAVER for data-center breakout.
NAVER was beaten down despite strong news on data center plans and Nvidia-related issues that would normally move it sharply higher. The stock is recovering from the 180,000 won low toward 230,000 won. If it breaks through the 300,000 won wall, it could run to 600,000 won or higher, making it a stock to watch and potentially accumulate for a new leadership breakout.
035420.KS WATCH
HIGH
11:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
298040.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
009150.KS
010120.KS
▾
HIGH
Data center and grid demand positive
Shipbuilding and transformer/power equipment sectors have the strongest order backlog that is now converting into real profits, while demand remains robust. They are the leaders in the current rotation with both revenue and margin expansion.
298040.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
Valuation and tight supply drive upside
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are undervalued; next year's earnings support PBR around 1.5x, giving 30%+ upside. Memory tightness through 2028 due to HBM demand growth will continue to support profitability. The recent sell-off was driven by hedge fund supply, not fundamentals, and the sector will recover.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
AI substrate demand fuels strong rebound
Samsung Electro-Mechanics posted strong earnings, AI substrate demand from Broadcom and others will increase, and the stock could rebound to 1.6 million won technically. The company is also building a dedicated AI semiconductor substrate factory.
009150.KS LONG
Contract and royalty growth accelerating strongly
Alteogen has a large 520bn+ contract in August alone, and Keytruda SC penetration is growing faster than expected, driving royalties that could reach over 600bn this year. Multiple pipeline milestones are generating positive cash flow.
196170.KQ LONG
Data center and grid demand positive
Power equipment companies (transformers, wires) face strong structural tailwinds from data center electricity demand, grid replacement, and rising global electrification. No negatives in sight, and orders keep growing.
267260.KS LONG
ETF regulation shifts hot money to KOSDAQ
The 30 million won regulation on single-stock leveraged ETFs is redirecting speculative funds to KOSDAQ, where foreign and institutional investors are also returning. The flow is improving and KOSDAQ is benefiting from a stock-picking environment.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Potential US Navy shipbuilding catalyst ahead
The White House is asking Congress to allow overseas construction of US Navy combat ships, which would be a huge positive catalyst for Korean shipbuilders if passed. While still awaiting legislation, it's a sentiment-changing event to monitor.
009540.KS WATCH
329180.KS WATCH
042660.KS WATCH
Bottom confirmed, target 7,100-7,500
KOSPI has confirmed a bottom around 6,200-6,500 after the July shock. He sets a trading range with downside stop below 6,100 and upside target at 7,100-7,500, expecting the index to grind higher after the consolidation.
EWY LONG
Lack of profit conversion despite orders
Daewoo E&C's target price was cut from 49,000 to 20,000 won due to nuclear project delays and weak earnings momentum. Order wins alone are not converting into profit growth, and the stock lacks catalysts.
047040.KS AVOID
HIGH
10:19
Aug 05
Aug 05
SPY FLIP
STOXX Europe 600
HYG 1ST
EMB
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 upside on Iran deal hopes.
Equities are in a very bullish environment driven by optimism around a US-Iran deal, strong earnings, massive fiscal injections, and low interest rates. The S&P 500 has more upside if a credible deal materializes.
SPY LONG
Avoid European equities on structural weakness.
German and French economies are shedding jobs, struggling to compete with Chinese cars, and face shrinking working-age populations. This makes European equities unattractive.
STOXX Europe 600 AVOID
Prefer high yield over equities.
High yield bonds can deliver returns similar to equities over the next 12 months but with less downside risk because defaults are expected to remain low.
HYG LONG
Emerging market debt attractive versus equities.
Emerging market debt can provide equity-like returns with less downside, making it a preferred risk asset.
EMB LONG
US tech stocks may be an AI bubble.
US tech stocks look like they may be in an AI bubble, posing downside risk.
XLK AVOID
Long UK front-end gilts on weak economy.
The UK economy is fundamentally weak with private sector jobs declining, which supports being long front-end gilts as rates may fall.
IGLT LONG
Watch UK long-dated gilts for entry.
Long-dated UK gilts could become attractive if weak growth pushes yields lower; currently under consideration.
VGIT WATCH
Long European diesel crack on weather constraints.
Extreme heat and drought in Europe constrain refinery operations while demand rises, pushing European diesel cracks to near 20-year highs with further upside if conditions worsen.
ICE Gasoil-Brent Crack LONG
Infineon growth driven by AI and autos.
Infineon sees strong revenue growth driven by AI data center power chips, a recovery in automotive, and expanding margins, with the AI business doubling and material upgrades ahead.
IFX.DE LONG
Sandoz biosimilars driving strong growth.
Sandoz is in a golden decade with biosimilars revenue well ahead of 2030 targets, a rapidly expanding pipeline of 36 assets, strong cash generation, and leadership in generics.
SDZNY LONG
Ahold Delhaize gaining share through price investments.
Ahold Delhaize's price investments are gaining market share, Net Promoter scores at all-time high, and the company is on track with resilient performance and reiterated guidance.
ADRNY LONG
Avoid SpaceX on high cash burn.
SpaceX is burning $2 of cash for every dollar of revenue, with grand ambitions requiring massive spending, making it act more like a cash-burning startup despite being public.
SPCX AVOID
Avoid Novo Nordisk on pipeline concerns.
Novo Nordisk faces pipeline questions, setbacks in next-gen obesity drugs, and disappointing Wegovy pill sales, which may limit the above-consensus growth needed to support valuation.
NVO AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
SOXX
005930.KS
000660.KS
005380.KS
035420.KS
▾
HIGH
Unprecedented equipment supercycle, buy ETF
Foundry and memory companies are all expanding simultaneously for the first time ever, launching an unprecedented 10–15 year capex supercycle. This will create severe equipment shortages and drive sustained upside for the Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sector. Investors can use the available semiconductor equipment ETF and pick top holdings.
SOXX LONG
Memory demand surge favors major makers
Data centers’ memory cost share is surging to over 70 % from next year, driving explosive demand that will make memory prices rise inevitably. This sets up a memory supercycle benefiting the leading DRAM/NAND producers.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hyundai Motor will return to 600K
Hyundai Motor has done nothing wrong fundamentally and is recovering from lows. It will eventually return to the 600,000 won level.
005380.KS LONG
Naver robot expands to Saudi Arabia
Naver is a hidden robotics play; it is expanding its in-house delivery robot to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, adding a new growth catalyst beyond its core internet business.
035420.KS LONG
Power equipment strong earnings, undervalued
LS Electric and Hyosung Heavy Industries have genuinely strong earnings and are undervalued. Their technical trend is in the process of turning upward, offering an attractive entry.
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
RFHIC rides telecom and defense waves
RFHIC benefits from both strong telecom equipment export data and renewed defense demand, making it a prime play as the two themes converge.
218410.KQ LONG
SoC substrate boom benefits TLB, Simmtech
SoC substrate demand is surging, and TLB and Simmtech are the key suppliers for this segment (while Daeduck focuses on FC-BGA), positioning them to benefit directly from the demand surge.
TLB LONG
222800.KQ LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
KOSDAQ 150
KODEX 200 ETF
GLD FLIP
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ cheap, rally into next summer.
KOSDAQ has a seasonal pattern where even-numbered years see sharp declines, with bottoms often forming in September-October, followed by rallies into May-July of odd-numbered years. Currently around 700, KOSDAQ is cheap after a severe drawdown, biotech is not worthless, and pension funds can justify buying at these levels. He expects the index to be much higher by next May-July.
KOSDAQ 150 LONG
Sell safe assets, buy KOSPI for rebound.
After a 40% market crash, selling underperforming safe assets (gold ETF, bond ETF) that are only down 6-9% and rotating into KOSPI ETF is a faster way to recover. He expects KOSPI to rebound to 750 from the crash low, buying around 650 yields about 15% return.
KODEX 200 ETF LONG
Accumulate gold ETF on dips over time.
Gold has delivered a 15% annualized return over the last decade. He recommends buying gold ETF every year as a dollar-cost averaging strategy, and when it drops significantly, increasing the allocation. Gold is currently down 26% from its January high, presenting a potential dip-buying opportunity.
GLD LONG
HIGH
09:11
Aug 05
Aug 05
KOSDAQ 150 Index
207940.KS
069500.KS
Korean shipbuilding sector
ETF
▾
HIGH
Buy KOSDAQ 150 on extreme weakness.
KOSDAQ 150 has crashed to deeply oversold levels. Historically, KOSDAQ in even-numbered years often makes a bottom around September-October and then rallies into the following May-July. At current prices, even long-term institutional money should be comfortable accumulating. The recent active ETF overhang and sentiment washout have created a 'good, kind price' entry. He explicitly bought 20 billion won of KOSDAQ alongside a much larger KOSPI position and expects it to be substantially higher by mid-2026.
KOSDAQ 150 Index LONG
Overweight Korean biotech, especially Samsung Biologics.
Biotech/healthcare is the most mentioned sector by strategists for H2. The sector has been sold off excessively, making valuations very attractive. Samsung Biologics is highlighted for its stable CMO revenue and CDMO growth potential. Rate uncertainty, a major headwind, is already priced in, so any easing of rate fears should trigger a valuation recovery. This is a new story beyond the exhausted AI narrative.
207940.KS LONG
Buy KOSPI 200 ETF after crash.
The KOSPI (via KODEX 200) was purchased heavily during the panic crash at roughly 100 billion won total, with 80 billion in KODEX 200. The crash reflected forced deleveraging and mechanical selling, not a breakdown in fundamentals. JP Morgan notes that leverage ETF unwinding is largely done and foreign selling pressure has eased. Valuation has reset to crisis-level multiples (P/E ~5-6x, free-cash-flow yield multiples at five times), the KOSPI floor at 6000 was confirmed, and earnings remain solid. This is a compelling entry point for a long position.
069500.KS LONG
Buy Korean shipbuilders on strong orders.
Korean shipbuilding is seeing simultaneous improvements in order backlogs and profitability. The U.S.-Korea shipbuilding cooperation (MARS) and replacement demand for aging vessels are additional catalysts for new orders. Three strategists picked it as their top sector, highlighting a turnaround that has its own differentiated drivers.
Korean shipbuilding sector LONG
Accumulate gold on current pullback.
Gold should be accumulated on a regular basis as a long-term portfolio anchor. It is currently down about 26% from its January 2025 high, which reduces near-term buying pressure. He regrets that the Bank of Korea did not buy gold consistently over the years, and personally wishes it had been bought every year. The scarcity value and portfolio protection against geopolitical risk and currency debasement remain intact.
ETF LONG
Buy Korean financials for value and returns.
Korean financials offer attractive value with an average PBR of only 0.8x for the four major financial holding companies. Earnings power has improved, and additional shareholder return measures are expected in H2. In a volatile market, they also serve as a defensive play. This is a low-valuation, improving-catalyst story.
KBE LONG
Use covered call ETFs in range-bound markets.
With the KOSPI likely stuck in a box range (e.g., 7,000–7,500–8,000) and U.S. markets facing a rebound that may be capped by 4.6% rates, covered call ETFs are attractive now. The strategy benefits from elevated option premiums while limiting downside. He specifically says U.S. covered call is effective for the coming months (July–October). Analysts highlight GPIX, GPIQ, and active Korean covered call ETFs like TIGER Dividend Covered Call Active and KODEX 200 Covered Call Active.
GPIX LONG
GPIQ LONG
TIGER LONG
Watch SK hynix for shareholder return catalyst.
SK hynix is expected to announce a large shareholder return policy soon after the ADR quiet period expires tonight. The previous sell-off was partly due to a disappointing Q2 EPS and AI spending fears, but those concerns are now seen as overblown and the company has signaled intent to boost shareholder value. The catalyst could reverse the recent decline, even if the announcement does not come precisely tonight. The setup is worth monitoring.
000660.KS WATCH
HIGH
09:02
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
000660.KS
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI range trade with bullish bias
The KOSPI index has confirmed a bottom around 6,500 and is in a recovery phase targeting 7,100-7,500 as sentiment slowly stabilizes and leverage-driven excess unwinds. However, the rebound thesis fails if the index breaks below the 6,000-6,100 support zone, in which case holdings should be sold. This range-bound but upward-biased view is based on technical support/resistance, declining ETF/leveraged trading volumes, and the view that the extreme July crash was a one-off event.
EWY LONG
SK Hynix target 200,000 won
SK Hynix is currently underperforming the KOSPI but is expected to rally toward 200,000 KRW as part of the broader market recovery, especially if semiconductors lead the next leg up. He advises investors who already hold the stock to keep holding and set 200,000 KRW as the profit target, based on chart resistance from late July and the stock's eventual catch-up with the index.
000660.KS LONG
Samsung essential for KOSPI breakout
For the KOSPI to decisively break above 7,500, Samsung Electronics must participate and lead the charge. Investors who believe the index will move higher should own Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The current rebound is a self-sustaining technical bounce; a true level-up requires Samsung to move.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
09:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
KOSPI bottom formed, buy on dips.
KOSPI has likely formed a bottom after a 43% peak-to-trough decline that exceeds COVID and post-2022 levels, despite companies still generating profits rather than losses like past crises. Samsung Electronics' 5% dividend yield provides downside rigidity, and the US AI ecosystem is not collapsing, confirming the bottom. He sees current levels near 6,600 as a buying opportunity, though near-term range-bound between 6,500 and 8,500 due to slowing semiconductor export growth and US midterm election uncertainty.
EWY LONG
Samsung cheap, buy for margin re-rating.
Samsung Electronics looks cheap with a dividend yield of 4.5-5%, which provides a floor. The stock price near 200,000 won can absorb bad news. If Samsung demonstrates margin defense next year, maintaining operating margins above 30% even as memory prices slow, it will trigger a PER re-rating, potentially doubling the stock. He recommends buying on dips and gradually accumulating, favoring Samsung for semiconductor exposure.
005930.KS LONG
SK hynix less attractive, prefer Samsung.
SK hynix's shareholder return policy is a surprising transformation, but its sustainability is questionable and might be a one-off event. This uncertainty makes SK hynix less attractive relative to Samsung, leading him to recommend focusing semiconductor exposure on Samsung rather than SK hynix.
000660.KS AVOID
HIGH
08:28
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
KOSDAQ Index
005930.KS
298040.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Market rebound fragile, hold cash
The KOSPI and KOSDAQ rebound is fragile; trading volume is low, foreign investors' futures positions are negative, and option expiry next week could trigger volatility. Geopolitical risks and inflation concerns remain. Investors should hold 50% cash, avoid chasing V-shaped rallies, and buy gradually on dips.
EWY WATCH
KOSDAQ Index WATCH
Memory stocks offer 30% upside
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are undervalued. Their P/B ratio is around 1.5x based on next year's earnings estimates, offering at least 30% upside if earnings are delivered. DRAM supply tightness is expected to persist through 2028, supporting memory demand.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Power equipment has no negatives
Power equipment stocks are a strong buy. Global power demand is surging from data centers, EV adoption, and extreme heatwaves. Grid infrastructure is aging and needs replacement. There are no negatives for the sector.
298040.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
Alteogen cash flows improving strongly
Alteogen is realizing multiple growing revenue streams. A new 521.9 billion KRW contract was signed, Keytruda SC royalties are ramping faster than expected, and milestone payments from AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, and Sanofi clinical entries will significantly improve cash flow.
196170.KQ LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics rebound to 1.6M
Samsung Electro-Mechanics reported strong earnings and positive guidance. ABF substrate demand is robust. The company is building a dedicated AI semiconductor factory, implying more business from Broadcom and Samsung HBM. Technically, the stock could rebound to 1,600,000 KRW.
009150.KS LONG
HD Construction earnings bounce continues
HD Hyundai Construction Equipment reported strong earnings driven by European sales. The stock had a spike on July 23, pulled back, and is now rebounding again as the earnings effect plays out with a lag.
267270.KS LONG
OE Solution possible optical transceiver play
OE Solution is a genuine potential beneficiary if the US bans Chinese optical transceivers, because the company manufactures optical transceivers. Unlike Daehan Optical Telecom, which has poor earnings and is just riding the theme, OE Solution has a real business fit.
138080.KQ LONG
Watch shipbuilding for US Navy catalyst
The White House requested Congress to consider foreign construction of US Navy combat ships. If legislation passes, Korean shipbuilders would gain a huge reference and potentially orders for combat ships, not just auxiliary vessels. This is a watch item as it would be a major catalyst for the sector.
329180.KS WATCH
010140.KS WATCH
042660.KS WATCH
Avoid Daehan Optical, no earnings
Daehan Optical Telecom is an avoid despite the optical communication hype. The company is barely profitable, trades at a PER of 246x, and is a loss-making entity. It cannot compete with global optical cable makers and the US ban on Chinese transceivers may not materially benefit it.
010170.KQ AVOID
HBF standard may benefit equipment makers
SK Hynix and Sandisk unveiled the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) standard, which stacks NAND like HBM stacks DRAM. This new standard could bring renewed attention to domestic semiconductor equipment makers that supply for advanced packaging, such as Hanmi Semiconductor and PSK Holdings, similar to the HBM play.
042700.KS WATCH
319660.KQ WATCH
HIGH
08:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
BTC FLIP
▾
MED
Bitcoin apathy presents a buying opportunity
Michael observes that Bitcoin has been experiencing apathy and a washout, with ETF outflows and price stagnation even as software stocks bounced, prompting him to buy a little as a contrarian entry.
BTC LONG
MED
07:28
Aug 05
Aug 05
SPY
EWY
▾
MED
More upside if US-Iran deal finalized
The macro environment remains very bullish for stocks, driven by the inflationary stage of the AI CapEx bubble, massive fiscal injections globally, monetary policy held at historically low levels, and incredibly strong earnings. The S&P 500 has remained near record highs even through sector-specific turmoil, and this backdrop supports higher prices.
SPY WATCH
Korean stock rout is over
The other 50% of the rally is technical relief that the rout in Korean stocks is over, the situational awareness fund issue is resolved, and the calendar has rolled into a new month, allowing investors to put July's turmoil behind them.
EWY LONG
MED
07:14
Aug 05
Aug 05
ENR.DE 1ST
IFX.DE 1ST
SMH 1ST
EWY
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Strong gas turbine demand drives record orders
Strong demand for gas turbines and grid equipment is pushing profit margin to the upper end of guidance. Only 20% of gas turbine orders this year are AI-related, highlighting broad global electricity demand. Record orders, no cancellations, and careful capacity expansion provide confidence in long-term profitable growth.
ENR.DE LONG
AI chip demand and auto recovery boost growth
Infineon forecast a much stronger than seasonal quarter, with 13% sequential and 19% year-over-year revenue growth, driving margins up 400bps. AI data center revenue is doubling this year to over €1.6B and expected to exceed €2.5B next year. Automotive is also recovering, with content per car rising, low inventories restocking, and market share gains in microcontrollers.
IFX.DE LONG
Semiconductors direct beneficiaries of AI capex
While AI capex concerns persist, some areas like Palantir show monetization, and data justifies spending. Semiconductors are the most direct beneficiaries of higher AI capex, and the AI trend remains structurally strong with pockets of gains even if not a straight line higher.
SMH LONG
KOSPI sideways with memory cycle peak risk
The KOSPI washed out leveraged bets and found some stability, but it is a two-company memory story facing a cyclical peak because supply is catching up and U.S. hyperscalers may be more measured on capex. The outlook is sideways to slightly higher, without the massive upswing seen earlier.
EWY WATCH
Yen weakness persists, intervention only temporary
Coordinated intervention in the yen bought time but cannot reverse fundamental pressure. BOJ rate hikes remain very slow, high debt and fiscal spending weigh, and unless there is more commitment on the fundamental side, yen weakness is likely to continue.
USD/JPY LONG
HIGH
07:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
Forward Guidance
11h
STOCKS
CASH 1ST
GLD 1ST
XLRE 1ST
U.S. Treasury curve steepener
▾
HIGH
20/20/20/20/20 portfolio maximizes risk-adjusted returns.
A portfolio of 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate has the highest Sharpe ratio, returns ~9% annually since 1971, and suffers minimal drawdowns (worst -12% in 2022). It gives up only 2% annual return vs. stocks while drastically reducing volatility and emotional stress, providing a durable wealth-building solution.
STOCKS LONG
CASH LONG
GLD LONG
XLRE LONG
Yield curve steepener for 6–12 months.
Fed Chair Warsh intentionally held rates steady to steepen the yield curve, letting the long end sell off. This tightens financial conditions immediately and allows future short-rate cuts. The curve should keep steepening for 6–12 months, with Fed funds declining to around 3% while long-end yields stay elevated.
U.S. Treasury curve steepener LONG
Avoid oil; risk of fall to 60.
He has liquidated all energy positions. Oil could fall to $60–65 if the Iran conflict ends. The run has played out, and the technical picture points lower.
WTI AVOID
Long 2-year SOFR futures; no more hikes.
The market has 1.7 rate hikes priced in through June 2026, but Warsh will not hike and data will cooperate. He expects the hiking cycle to end and is positioned for rate cuts, making long 2-year SOFR futures an outright bet on falling short-term rates.
2-Year SOFR futures LONG
Long defensive sectors: healthcare and staples.
Healthcare and consumer staples have been performing well. If you like these defensive sectors, you are implicitly bearish on the rest of the market. They offer relative safety in a weakening economy.
XLV LONG
XLP LONG
Financials topping; no explicit XLF short.
Avoid XLF: the video thesis says financials are topping technically and could lead a broader sell-off, but the visible content does not state an explicit short position, puts trade, or direct short call.
XLF AVOID
HIGH
07:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
KOSDAQ FLIP
SMH
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
▾
HIGH
Avoid KOSDAQ small caps, too volatile
Investors who typically hold Samsung Electronics and SK hynix should avoid shifting into KOSDAQ small caps or 소부장 (equipment/materials) because the volatility is extreme and they risk further losses due to their inexperience in timing those moves. The KOSDAQ rally is a dangerous trap for such investors.
KOSDAQ AVOID
Buy Korean semiconductor ETFs for exposure
For investors who find it hard to pick individual stocks, buying the top two Korean semiconductor ETFs provides broad exposure to the memory rebound and AI theme with lower stock-specific risk.
SMH LONG
Buy memory leaders for AI-driven recovery
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will rebound and eventually become market leaders again, driven by sustained AI capex from Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon), rising memory prices acknowledged by Elon Musk and Apple, and a forecast that Korea remains the memory leader until 2031. Foreign investors have resumed buying, and 3Q earnings are expected to be very strong (Samsung 120 trillion won operating profit). The recent panic selling is overdone.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI to rebound to 7,300-7,500
The KOSPI is likely to rebound to the heavy volume resistance zone around 7,300–7,500 in the near term, as that is where a large supply area sits and is a natural target for the bounce.
EWY LONG
HIGH
06:54
Aug 05
Aug 05
JGBUX 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
JGB yield-rise view; no explicit short.
Avoid JGBUX: the Bloomberg segment argues JGB yields are likely to rise as the BOJ stays behind the curve and supply pressure persists, which is bearish for long JGB exposure, but it does not state an explicit short or puts trade.
JGBUX AVOID
Higher-for-longer yields; no explicit TLT short.
Avoid TLT: the Bloomberg segment says global long-end yields are likely to remain elevated, which is bearish for long-duration Treasury exposure, but it does not state an explicit short or puts trade.
TLT AVOID
MED
06:50
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
EWT FLIP
EWJ 1ST
10-year US Treasury yield
▾
MED
SpaceX AI spending lifts Asian tech
SpaceX's strong AI compute bookings and its aggressive locking down of Nvidia production will benefit the Asian semiconductor supply chain, which reads very well into Korea, Taiwan and Japan, where tech-heavy gauges are trading strongly.
EWY LONG
EWT LONG
EWJ LONG
Long US 10-year yield on AI CapEx
Markets are underestimating the rise in long-dated US Treasury yields driven by massive AI CapEx spending from top firms, which requires increased debt issuance and internal funding. The 10-year yield already reached its highest since 2007, and the market's crowding in equities ignores looming bond sell-off ramifications.
10-year US Treasury yield LONG
MED
05:52
Aug 05
Aug 05
USD/INR
▾
HIGH
Rupee to weaken on capital flow risks
Anubhuti Sahay is extremely cautious on the Indian rupee. The CNR scheme that has supported capital inflows expires in September; after that, momentum in capital flows is likely to weaken and weigh on the rupee. Oil price uncertainty and lack of visibility on a meaningful turnaround in portfolio and FDI flows over the next 6–12 months add to downside risks. Unless the government and RBI announce new substantive measures to attract capital, the rupee should trade at weaker levels by year-end, with a year-end USD/INR forecast of 96 and risk of even weaker trading.
USD/INR LONG
HIGH
05:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
010950.KS 1ST
Korean Financial Holding Companies
005930.KS
000660.KS
005380.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
S-Oil Shaheen project to boost earnings.
S-Oil's Shaheen project is nearing completion, which will drive a significant earnings increase. Despite the stock having already risen, it is not the only beneficiary of the oil price decline theme, and the project catalyst supports further upside.
010950.KS LONG
Korean financials cheap defensive value.
Financial holding companies have been beaten down alongside the market, offering value and defensive characteristics. Including them in the defensive portion of a barbell portfolio is sensible.
Korean Financial Holding Companies LONG
Samsung Electronics deeply undervalued, normalized cheap.
Samsung Electronics is trading at a forward P/E of 4.0, extremely low even after normalizing earnings over 2028-2030 to smooth the cycle. The market is over-discounting cycle risk, and the implied sustainable ROE of 20-25% supports a much higher valuation. If shareholder return rises to 50%, dividend yield could reach 6-7%, making it a compelling buy.
005930.KS LONG
SK Hynix extremely cheap, sustainable ROE.
SK Hynix trades at a forward P/E of 3.8, even cheaper than Samsung, and despite the recent ADR-driven volatility and an earnings miss, the long-term sustainable ROE is 15-20%. The stock is deeply undervalued and should be a core holding as the memory cycle eventually turns.
000660.KS LONG
Hyundai Motor cheap robot play.
Hyundai Motor has fallen a lot and is a cheap way to play the robotics theme, which could be the next market leadership. It provides exposure to the robotics upcycle while being already depressed.
005380.KS LONG
NAVER benefits from data center boom.
NAVER is attracting attention because of its data center expansion and foreign capital inflows, moving up alongside the US hyperscalers. It belongs to the AI core allocation as a domestic beneficiary of the AI data center build-out.
035420.KS LONG
Robotics sector set to lead.
The robotics sector is set to be the next market leader. Full deployment of humanoid robots like Atlas is still about two years away, but the market tends to front-run such secular themes. Allocating a portion to Korean robotics stocks now makes sense within the growth sleeve.
Korean robotics stocks LONG
Korean shipbuilders cheap, earnings rebound.
Korean shipbuilding stocks are expected to deliver strong earnings even though their valuations are not low. Prices have fallen substantially, creating an attractive cyclical/defensive entry point for a barbell portfolio.
Korean Shipbuilding Stocks LONG
Oil decline beneficiaries worth watching.
Falling oil prices are easing inflation and can reduce the equity discount rate. Korean oil price decline beneficiaries are worth monitoring as a thematic opportunity; they could perform well as oil stabilizes or declines further.
Korean oil price decline beneficiary stocks WATCH
US stocks unattractive vs bonds.
With the S&P 500 forward P/E around 21-22, the equity expected return is below 0.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.7%. This makes US equities unattractive relative to bonds, and the market is not attractive until rates stabilize.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
04:39
Aug 05
Aug 05
EZ-Link Technology
Qualcomm Technology
MiniMax 1ST
KC 1ST
TFSi Optical
▾
HIGH
Buy Chinese domestic optical suppliers.
Under a potential US ban on Chinese optical transceivers, companies focused on China's domestic substitution (EZ-Link Technology, Qualcomm Technology) and upstream/midstream optical component makers (TFSi Optical) are better positioned because they are less reliant on US hyperscaler demand and benefit from domestic market growth.
EZ-Link Technology LONG
Qualcomm Technology LONG
TFSi Optical LONG
Long Chinese AI software stocks.
US policy not restricting open-weight AI models benefits Chinese AI software companies, creating room to run; MiniMax is a direct beneficiary as an open-weight model provider, with stock up on the news.
MiniMax LONG
Buy China cloud and data centers.
Cloud and data centers are the top preferred subsector in China internet, driven by token growth and anticipated CapEx uplift in 2H as domestic chip supply increases; hyperscalers like Alibaba, GDS, VNet, Kingsoft Cloud poised to benefit from 45% cloud revenue growth.
KC LONG
GDS LONG
BABA LONG
VNET LONG
Avoid Chinese optical hardware stocks.
The hardware space, particularly Chinese optical component makers, looks threatened by the geopolitical environment, making them unattractive.
Zhongji Innolight AVOID
Long Indian Rupee.
INR is expected to remain stable or strengthen due to RBI's strong reserve position from NRI inflows and active intervention, supporting a positive outlook despite upcoming rate hikes.
Indian rupee LONG
HIGH
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