Analyst raised oil price forecasts due to a "prolonged disruption to the energy complex with a longer tail than previously expected." Iran is escalating by targeting upstream energy infrastructure (UAE gas field, Iraqi oil field) and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict is protracting, with the US lacking a coalition to reopen the strait. Iran's actions are deliberately squeezing supply to exert leverage, while US mitigation efforts (IEA releases, rhetoric) are only softening the price rise, not reversing it. Expect prices elevated ~$10/bbl above pre-conflict forecasts for years. Current price (~$103) does not fully reflect the extended disruption and fragility of supply choke points. A rapid, negotiated de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or a larger-than-expected demand destruction response.