Escaping the Bottom? A Buy Signal Finally Appears as Credit Decreases and Deposits Increase; The Reason to Target 1 PM (Bull Market)

Summary

Hwang Yuhyun, PB Team Leader at Shinhan Investment, analyzes the August 5 session. He declares that a definitive buy signal has appeared for KOSPI and KOSDAQ, driven by a follow-through rally, massive credit deleveraging, and rebounding deposits. He argues that the most opportune area is the deeply oversold KOSDAQ market, where money is rotating from large-cap tech into a broad array of rebounding laggards like robotics, biotech, secondary batteries, solar, shipbuilding, and semiconductor equipment stocks. He also highlights Hyundai E&C on Middle East reconstruction hopes and NAVER as a potential breakout leader.

• KOSPI and KOSDAQ generate a follow-through buy signal after a 2%+ rally breaks the downtrend.
• Credit balances dropped over 3 trillion won and the credit-to-deposit ratio fell sharply, indicating forced selling is exhausted.
• KOSDAQ is preferred over KOSPI due to extreme oversold conditions, with a target near 900 points.
• Money is rotating out of Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and leveraged ETFs into a wide KOSDAQ oversold rebound trade.
• Specific KOSDAQ sectors turning up include robotics, biotech, secondary batteries, solar, shipbuilding, and semiconductor equipment.
• Hyundai E&C gets an extra catalyst from expected Middle East reconstruction projects.
• NAVER is flagged as a stock to watch, with data center and Nvidia ties; a break above 300,000 won could ignite a larger run.
• The speaker suggests using intraday dips around 1 p.m. as entry points, but warns this is a trading strategy not a standalone investment idea.