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European equity index can still move 5% higher because EPS growth is rising (driven by energy and narrow sectors) and earnings season was strong, offsetting cyclical drags.
The UK market has a heavy weighting in "Defensives" (50%), Oil, and Defense/Aerospace (10%). In a stagflationary or conflict-driven environment, the UK acts as a "Triple Whammy" hedge. It benefits from higher oil prices (Shell/BP), higher defense spending (BAE), and defensive sector rotation, unlike the tech-heavy US or manufacturing-heavy Germany. Long UK (EWU). Sterling volatility or broader global recession dragging down all equities.
The UK market has a heavy weighting in "Defensives" (50%), Oil, and Defense/Aerospace (10%). In a stagflationary or conflict-driven environment, the UK acts as a "Triple Whammy" hedge. It benefits from higher oil prices (Shell/BP), higher defense spending (BAE), and defensive sector rotation, unlike the tech-heavy US or manufacturing-heavy Germany. Long UK (EWU). Sterling volatility or broader global recession dragging down all equities.
Within emerging markets, Citi swapped its one-year overweight in Korea for an overweight in China, as China's AI and tech catch-up offer more upside, sentiment and positioning were very negative, and Korea had become overextended with no room for other markets.
Overweight tech, underweight communication services
Citi is overweight the technology sector and underweight communication services, where the hyperscalers reside, as the AI-driven market broadening reduces the dominance of large-cap internet names and allows other parts of tech to participate.
Within Europe, the cyclical sectors basic resources and industrials are preferred. They benefit from European infrastructure spending, global growth feeding into European companies, and the broadening earnings trend. These sectors offer positive second-order effects and are key to the European outperformance call.
Japan has more cyclical drivers than the UK in a broadening environment, and they have swapped UK for Japan in their global portfolio. The UK’s heavy defensive weighting will cause it to underperform more cyclical regions, even though absolute UK performance may still be positive.
Beata Manthey has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #738 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: VGK, EWU, EWJ.
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