Charu Chan

While AI capex concerns persist, some areas like Palantir show monetization, and data justifies spending. Semiconductors are the most direct beneficiaries of higher AI capex, and the AI trend remains structurally strong with pockets of gains even if not a straight line higher.

India offers a structural diversification story with strong domestic demand, an industrial capex cycle, and reduced headwinds from a softer dollar and lower oil. Within India, favor banks and industrials over consumers, as oil and dollar risks could still pressure consumption. India acts as a stabilizer during AI volatility but is not the primary return driver.

At a 5% yield, 30-year US Treasuries are a buying opportunity. The bad news is already priced in, deficits are a threat but not going away, and a short-term rally in long-duration bonds is likely if the Iran deal goes through. The 5% level has proven to be a line in the sand.

Gold is a better hedge for policy, fiscal risk, and fragmentation in the global oil market, despite short-term headwinds from rising yields.

The speaker stated that AI is power-hungry and geopolitical tensions are tightening energy supply, meaning significant investment will continue to flow into energy. Meeting AI's growing power demand requires expanded energy infrastructure and supply, which is further strained by geopolitical disruptions in critical regions like the Strait of Hormuz. This creates a long-term structural investment tailwind for companies involved in energy mineral exploration, production, and related infrastructure. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East and a swift normalization of energy trade, or a slowdown in AI capital expenditure.