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10:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
US Long-dated Treasuries
SPY
SMH 1ST
XLE 1ST
CIEN
▾
HIGH
Capital demand pushes yields higher.
The world is demanding so much capital, including heavy Treasury issuance, private sector borrowing, sticky inflation, and war-related price effects, that the bond market must reprice and ration capital through higher yields. This is pushing rates higher, not lower.
US Long-dated Treasuries SHORT
Earnings and labor-to-capital shift support S&P 500.
The stock market's strength is not surprising because 6% nominal GDP growth, 6% GDP deficits, strong corporate earnings, and a labor-to-capital shift benefit what the S&P 500 captures: a mostly business-to-business capital goods economy. This environment supports equities even after a long bull market.
SPY LONG
Factor strategies converge on semiconductor leadership.
Many independent factor strategies such as best earnings revisions, price momentum, and growth all converged on the same semiconductors exposure because semis had the strongest earnings and price trends. Semis are now about 18% of the S&P, so broad strategies ended up owning them.
SMH LONG
Energy is new negative-beta diversifier.
With bonds less reliable as diversifiers and utilities now behaving like AI trades, energy stocks have become the consensus negative-beta diversifier. Energy can move opposite the S&P 500 and therefore acts as a portfolio diversifier.
XLE LONG
Old tech leaders become momentum again.
The current rally has revived former momentum leaders like Ciena, Dell, and Cisco, which became momentum stocks again as durable old tech know-how rotated back into favor. This throwback stock revival is a notable part of the market.
CIEN LONG
DELL LONG
CSCO LONG
Defined-outcome options ETFs meet investor demand.
Options income and defined-outcome ETFs became a huge category because they give everyday investors a way to define and shrink the range of outcomes, unlike a 60/40 portfolio. People psychologically want certainty of outcome, so demand persists even after zero rates.
Options income ETFs LONG
AI ecosystem ETFs are late-cycle toppy.
The launch of ETFs built around a specific AI company's ecosystem is late-cycle toppy behavior. Past product cycles like iPhone component baskets and EV/lidar ETFs saw interest fade quickly, so these AI ecosystem baskets are likely toward the end and will lose trader interest fast.
AI ecosystem ETFs AVOID
HIGH
17:47
Aug 19
Aug 19
SPY
VTTVX 1ST
XLRE
▾
HIGH
Stock market crashes will still occur.
Fewer recessions do not mean fewer stock market crashes. Historical data shows bear markets have occurred just as frequently across 20-year periods despite recessions becoming rarer, because markets are more emotional than the economy and human nature is constant. Faster information and regular money flows may shorten drawdowns, but they will not eliminate crashes.
SPY WATCH
Bond/CD ladder plus growth fund works.
For a retiree needing to cover a specific annual spending gap, a short-term bond/CD ladder for the first several years while allowing a longer-dated target-date fund to grow is sound. It could be improved by extending the ladder to seven years and shifting from a 2020 target-date fund toward a 2035 fund for a little more equity exposure because the growth money will not be touched for six or seven years.
VTTVX LONG
Real estate offers durable leveraged appreciation.
Real estate remains attractive despite stocks' recent outperformance. It provides tangible value, local market inefficiencies, tax efficiencies, rental income, equity build-up, and bank-available leverage that stock portfolios do not get. House prices are far less volatile and rarely fall, so during the next stock market downturn housing values and rental income will probably hold up, making real estate appealing.
XLRE LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 19
Aug 19
MSFT
SPCX FLIP
GOOG
AMZN
NHL ETFs
▾
HIGH
AI investment returns are too uncertain now.
The massive and unprecedented capital expenditures on AI by hyperscalers make it impossible to know if they will achieve a sufficient return on investment, placing the AI trade in the 'too hard pile' and warranting a neutral stance.
MSFT WATCH
GOOG WATCH
AMZN WATCH
SpaceX showed strong resilience during its unlock.
Despite negative sentiment and fears surrounding its share unlock, SpaceX successfully bounced from $100 to $150, demonstrating strong price action that provided a quick 20% trading gain.
SPCX LONG
NHL ETFs will fail to attract assets.
Proposed ETFs tied to individual NHL franchises using CME futures contracts are unlikely to gain significant traction because wrapping sports betting into an ETF removes the emotional thrill that gamblers actually seek.
NHL ETFs AVOID
A 3% real yield makes TIPS attractive.
With inflation remaining sticky and government spending continuing, securing a 3% real yield on 20- or 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) represents a massive buying opportunity that the market is currently ignoring due to recent fixed income volatility.
TIP LONG
HIGH
22:22
Aug 18
Aug 18
PS 1ST
SPOT
ORCL 1ST
CRM FLIP
PSUS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy PS to bet on Ackman's business.
If you want to bet on Bill Ackman as a businessman and entrepreneur successfully launching new funds and collecting fees, you should buy the management company, PS.
PS LONG
Spotify is media's best business with upside.
Spotify is the best business in media, having defeated competitors like Pandora and SiriusXM, and is on track to reach a billion subscribers; the stock has formed a double bottom at $400, offering a great risk-reward setup for a trade with 50% potential upside.
SPOT LONG
Massive debt is causing panic in Oracle.
There is a slow-motion panic in Oracle's equity caused by its massive debt load, ties to OpenAI contracts, and blowing out credit default swaps.
ORCL AVOID
Salesforce stock could decline further from AI.
Despite the indiscriminate selling of SaaS stocks ending, Salesforce is not out of the woods and its stock price could be lower a year from now due to AI disruption pressures.
CRM AVOID
Buy PSH or PSUS for Ackman's portfolio.
If you want to bet directly on Bill Ackman's concentrated portfolio and stock picks, you should buy PSH or the new closed-end fund PSUS.
PSUS LONG
PSH LONG
Autonomous vehicle overhang caps Uber's upside potential.
Uber is facing endless sellers and getting rejected hard at its 200-day moving average; it will struggle to get back above $80 due to the overhang of autonomous vehicle competition.
UBER AVOID
Off-balance sheet debt and lawsuits threaten Meta.
Meta has massive off-balance sheet lease obligations for data centers and faces potential multi-billion dollar fines from 29 states over child protection, causing the stock to look terrible and approach recent lows.
META AVOID
Sold Workday immediately on acquisition rumor pop.
Sold Workday immediately at $218 following the Silverlake acquisition rumors, taking the opportunity to exit the position.
WDAY AVOID
Buy leisure ETF PEJ on any pullback.
Leisure continues to lead the market, and betting against the consumer's willingness to spend on travel is a bad bet; the PEJ ETF is making new all-time highs and is a buy on any pullback.
PEJ LONG
Buy Howard Hughes for Ackman's Berkshire clone.
If you want to bet on Bill Ackman successfully executing a Berkshire Hathaway-style permanent capital model using real estate and insurance cash flows, you should buy Howard Hughes Holdings.
HHH LONG
HIGH
16:34
Aug 12
Aug 12
GDX 1ST
BTC 1ST
USD
▾
MED
Small volatile allocation improves portfolio diversification.
Ben cites Bill Bernstein's framework: putting 5-10% of a portfolio into a highly volatile, lower-return asset such as a precious metals equities fund can improve overall portfolio outcomes through rebalancing and correlation benefits. The volatility itself can reduce total portfolio volatility when systematically rebalanced.
GDX LONG
Bitcoin as small volatile diversifier.
Duncan says the same volatile-asset diversification logic applies to Bitcoin; he personally holds a 2% Bitcoin position as a small diversifier/rebalancing asset.
BTC LONG
Fixed mortgage shorts the dollar.
Ben frames a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as an effective short on the US dollar, because you borrow today and repay with future dollars. In a higher-inflation regime, this short-dollar exposure has been beneficial and argues against prepaying the mortgage.
USD WATCH
MED
10:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
EEM
SPY
EWY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Emerging markets are a cheap AI play.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trades at a record discount (9.9x forward earnings) versus the S&P 500 (20x), and with technology now 41% of the index—driven by Taiwan and South Korea—it represents a cheaper way to participate in the AI boom.
EEM WATCH
S&P 500 earnings breakout signals upside.
S&P 500 forward operating earnings are at all-time highs and breaking out like a momentum stock, which historically signals further market upside.
SPY LONG
Korean retail wave will boost equities.
South Korean retail equity participation has more than doubled to 28% since 2020, yet household assets remain overwhelmingly in real estate (77%), signaling a massive wave of money about to enter the stock market as younger investors shift toward equities.
EWY LONG
HIGH
15:01
Aug 11
Aug 11
META
UBER
NFLX
DIS 1ST
EXPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Meta tradable low at $525 support
Meta has a tradable low around $525, a level that has acted as strong support three times since early 2025, with buyers repeatedly stepping in. A long position with a stop at 525 offers a defined-risk bounce setup.
META LONG
Uber tradable low, possible rally to $100
Uber has formed a tradable low in the mid-to-high $60s after a strong bounce from post-earnings gap down, with risk clearly defined at that level. The stock has been in a long consolidation and the speaker is personally long, expecting a move back toward $100.
UBER LONG
Netflix $70 zone may be a bottom
Netflix appears to have found a significant bottom around $70, with the stock recovering quickly from a 10% post-earnings gap down and most bad news already priced in. The speaker is averaging down and sees a 50/50 chance the low holds.
NFLX LONG
Disney buy on double bottom at $90
Disney has a double bottom at $90 that has historically attracted buyers, and the speaker believes the stock is a buy at that level, expecting it to reclaim its 50-day moving average and bounce unless an economic catastrophe occurs.
DIS LONG
Expedia breakout, travel demand overcomes AI
Expedia has survived AI disruption fears, is breaking out to fresh highs, and travel demand remains so strong that it overrides any threat from AI trip planners. The stock has strong momentum and is going higher.
EXPE LONG
Moody's and S&P immune to AI disruption
Rating agencies like Moody's and S&P Global are not susceptible to AI disruption because their ratings carry regulatory trust and standardization that a chatbot cannot replace. They also own valuable data that LLMs must pay for, making them strong bounce candidates.
MCO LONG
SPGI LONG
Buy the dip in Hilton at $305 support
Hilton is a buy on the dip. It is an asset-light marketing and points business with 22% annual compounding over 10 years. The stock is falling into its rising 200-day moving average near $305, similar to the Marriott setup, and should bounce back to old highs.
HLT LONG
Alternative asset managers ETF bottomed, going higher
The alternative asset managers ETF has put in a major low that held and is now reversing sharply, signaling that private-credit fears are not systemic and the market no longer cares about blow-up risks in that space.
PSP LONG
Home Depot inverse head-and-shoulders bottom
Home Depot is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, signaling a potential trend change. With interest-rate headwinds fully priced in, the stock is reversing and the speaker would pull the trigger with a target back to $400.
HD LONG
CrowdStrike remains top cybersecurity holding
CrowdStrike is the most trusted cybersecurity platform and will remain essential as AI increases threats. Cyber spending cannot decrease in any boardroom, and the stock has compounded at 29% annually since IPO; the speaker will never sell.
CRWD LONG
Small cap consumer discretionary ETF breaking out
Small-cap consumer discretionary stocks are hitting new all-time highs, signaling genuine consumer strength because the ETF holds a broad basket of specialty retail, hotels, restaurants, and household durables, avoiding idiosyncratic single-stock noise.
XLY LONG
Nvidia financing deal cements AI chip demand
Nvidia's partnerships with major Wall Street firms to finance data centers effectively end the circular-financing concern and commoditize compute as a scarce, fungible asset. This secures long-term demand for Nvidia chips and is super bullish for the stock.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 10
Aug 10
IMAX
SPHR 1ST
▾
HIGH
IMAX essential for blockbuster movie success.
IMAX is increasingly integral to the global film ecosystem, with high visibility from a large theater installation backlog, a strong pipeline of blockbuster films committed through 2028, and new revenue streams like merchandising and film prints. These factors provide unusual earnings predictability and growth.
IMAX LONG
Sphere too expensive, can't justify valuation.
The Sphere's business model is unattractive because it allegedly cost nearly $3 billion to build and there is no clear path to profitability at that price, making it an investment he would avoid in favor of companies with earnings and cash flow.
SPHR AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Aug 07
Aug 07
IWM
WTI FLIP
GLD
SPY
XLF
▾
HIGH
Small caps catch-up trade, explode higher.
Small caps are finally exploding higher as a catch-up trade after lagging badly in the early part of the bull market due to high interest rates and lack of AI exposure. Historically, divergences like this resolve with laggards catching up, not with leaders catching down.
IWM LONG
Oil breakout from multi-year downtrend.
Oil broke out of a downtrend that had been in place since the Russia-Ukraine spike in 2022. The technical breakout signaled a bullish reversal, and he regrets not acting on it, implying that the market was telegraphing a move higher well before news catalysts.
WTI LONG
Gold target $5,500, uptrend intact.
Gold is in a structural channel that started a few years ago, and the target has been raised to $5,500 per ounce by year-end. After a reasonable correction, gold is holding support around $4,000, and technicals point to further upside, making it a clean technical play on supply/demand and momentum.
GLD LONG
No recession, S&P 500 to 10,000.
The S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by the end of the decade because the US economy will not experience a recession, earnings growth and productivity will remain strong, and profit margins will stay at record highs. The economy has survived pandemic lockdowns, inflation surges, aggressive Fed tightening, and repeated shocks, proving its resilience.
SPY LONG
Overweight financials, industrials, healthcare.
The bull market is broadening, so Yardeni Research has moved technology and communication services to market weight while overweighting financials, industrials, and healthcare. These sectors will benefit from catch-up as AI and digital technologies diffuse across the economy, boosting productivity outside of tech.
XLF LONG
XLK AVOID
XLC AVOID
XLV LONG
XLI LONG
HIGH
17:52
Aug 05
Aug 05
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Use S&P 500 ETFs for UGMA.
For grandparents funding an UGMA, the simplest and most effective investment is broad S&P 500 index ETFs like SPY or VOO, which provide market-rate returns and avoid stock picking risk.
SPY LONG
HIGH
08:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
BTC FLIP
▾
MED
Bitcoin apathy presents a buying opportunity
Michael observes that Bitcoin has been experiencing apathy and a washout, with ETF outflows and price stagnation even as software stocks bounced, prompting him to buy a little as a contrarian entry.
BTC LONG
MED
22:12
Aug 04
Aug 04
SPCX FLIP
SPY
SMH
FND 1ST
PLTR
▾
HIGH
Lockup unlocks will drive SPCX below $100
SpaceX faces heavy lockup expirations starting two days after the report, with trillions of shares scheduled to unlock every five weeks through December. Even if only a small fraction of insiders sell, the flood of supply will likely push the stock below $100, making current levels unattractive.
SPCX AVOID
Healthy melt-up rally to continue year-end
The current rally is one of the healthiest in decades, featuring earnings beats in every sector, rotation among leadership, broad participation across styles and sizes, rising revenue growth, and analyst upgrades. The July momentum crash flushed out excess leverage and reset the bull market, setting up a midsummer melt-up that will drive substantial year-end chasing.
SPY LONG
Buy semiconductor dip, record ETF inflows
The recent semiconductor sell-off was driven by a concentrated hedge fund margin call, not deteriorating fundamentals. Investors correctly bought the dip, sending record inflows into semiconductor ETFs like SMH; the AI acceleration that Gavin Baker and others report remains intact, making the sector a buy.
SMH LONG
Floor & Decor breaking out, priced for worst
Floor & Decor has been crushed 70% due to the housing ice age, but all bad news is priced in. Comparable sales are becoming less bad, and the stock has broken violently above its 200-day moving average. History shows that buying 'less bad' situations after extreme sell-offs can lead to outsized returns when the cycle even slightly improves, without needing a housing boom.
FND LONG
Palantir is a dominant AI enterprise winner
Palantir is becoming one of the leading companies helping enterprises and governments monetize their data with AI. The non-traditional sales model works, and their blockbuster quarter with 93% revenue growth proves corporations are choosing Palantir over handing their alpha directly to large language model providers. The stock's extreme valuation can persist as earnings catch up.
PLTR LONG
HIGH
09:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
MSFT FLIP
RDDT 1ST
GOOG
AMZN
AAPL
▾
HIGH
Cloud hyperscalers benefit from AI spend.
The cloud hyperscalers are clear winners from AI spending. Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY (highest since 2022), Google Cloud revenue growth was 82%, and Amazon AWS reported 36.7% YoY growth, far above expectations. AI workloads are driving reacceleration in cloud revenue at massive scale, and these companies are the beneficiaries of the AI buildout.
MSFT LONG
GOOG LONG
AMZN LONG
Reddit monetizes data licensing for AI.
Reddit is a social media advertising play with a valuable data licensing business for AI training. It has multibillion-user interactions and deals with OpenAI and Google, with Anthropic likely to settle and become a customer. As AI models need high-quality human data, Reddit's data trove becomes a backdoor AI play.
RDDT LONG
Apple is consumer AI toll collector.
Apple is positioned to be the toll booth for consumer AI use. By virtue of the App Store, Apple can mandate interoperability with Agentic Siri, forcing app developers to integrate, making Apple the safest and dominant conduit for AI apps on mobile. Apple won’t need to spend on capex to win the consumer AI layer.
AAPL LONG
Snowflake is AI infrastructure, not software.
Snowflake is becoming an AI infrastructure play rather than just a software company. With 13,000 enterprise customers, its central data warehouse allows enterprises to run AI workflows directly on the data without moving it, avoiding fragmentation. The market is now treating it like AI infrastructure, driving the stock from a $70B to $100B market cap.
SNOW LONG
Agentic AI drives massive chip demand.
Agentic AI use cases are starting to take off, and if they become widespread, they will consume far more compute than simple queries. Even basic agents like automated Zillow searches require continuous background computation. The resulting compute crunch will be much larger than anything seen so far, driving massive demand for semiconductors.
SMH LONG
Meta's massive user base wins AI.
Meta may be spending heavily on AI without clear short-term revenue, but it has a captive audience of over 3 billion users. This user base could be leveraged to win the consumer AI game, especially with an addictive ‘AI friend’ product. Meta is already the best user of AI for ad targeting and engagement, giving it a credible shot at AI success despite current market skepticism.
META LONG
HIGH
17:00
Jul 29
Jul 29
SPY
SHAK 1ST
▾
HIGH
US stocks will rise due to capitalism
American capitalism ensures that corporations continually seek to increase profits and valuations, making it irrational to bet against the stock market over the long term; he remains perma-bullish because the collection of innovative, hardworking people in public companies will drive the market higher over time.
SPY LONG
Shake Shack long-term growth; wait before buying
Shake Shack has a strong long-term growth story with a tiny $2 billion market cap, a 15% unit CAGR target over the next decade, brand premium, and expansion plans. However, after a surprise Q1 loss, spike in food and paper costs, guidance cuts, and lost trust on Wall Street, he would not add fresh cash until the company demonstrates on the upcoming August 5 earnings call that it is handling the short-term cost pressures. He is holding his existing position long term.
SHAK LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 29
Jul 29
SPY
MTUM 1ST
AXP
AGG
IMAX
▾
HIGH
Market health proves bears wrong.
The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs despite severe selloffs in leading semiconductor and AI momentum stocks, demonstrating strong market breadth and earning the benefit of the doubt. This underlying resilience suggests further upside.
SPY LONG
Momentum pullback makes it healthier.
The iShares Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) rallied nearly 40% YTD through April, then pulled back to a 20% gain. This pullback makes the trend more sustainable and the risk/reward more attractive, as the prior pace was clearly unsustainable.
MTUM LONG
Gen Z spending lifts Amex growth.
American Express is seeing exceptional growth from younger cohorts, with Gen Z spending up 40% year-over-year and 65% of new accounts acquired from millennials and Gen Z. This indicates strong brand penetration and future revenue growth.
AXP LONG
Bonds offer margin of safety now.
After years of poor returns, bond yields are now significantly higher, providing a built-in margin of safety. With the worst of the rate-hike pain likely behind us, bonds look attractive, especially given the widespread bearish consensus.
AGG LONG
IMAX has long growth runway ahead.
IMAX, with a $2.5 billion market cap, is benefiting from massive blockbuster demand like The Odyssey and has multiple years of expansion potential as premium cinema experiences grow, giving the stock a long runway.
IMAX LONG
HIGH
21:54
Jul 28
Jul 28
MSFT FLIP
WDAY
NOW FLIP
META FLIP
UBER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Selling before earnings due to limp momentum
Microsoft, Workday, and ServiceNow are limping into their earnings reports with an uninspiring setup. Michael plans to sell his positions before the open because he thinks the stock momentum is weak and the setup is not favorable.
MSFT AVOID
WDAY AVOID
NOW AVOID
Meta likely to sell off post-earnings
Meta is expected to report a monster quarter on fundamentals, but investors are solely focused on rising capex and deteriorating free cash flow. Michael expects the stock to get punished at the open after earnings, similar to Google's recent pattern.
META AVOID
Uber at risk of post-earnings selloff
Uber is a dirt-cheap stock with horrendous momentum heading into its August 5th report. According to Adam Parker's data, cheap stocks with bad momentum get slaughtered when they miss earnings. This makes Uber especially risky ahead of the print.
UBER AVOID
Apple's capital-light AI strategy outperforms
Apple is the mega-cap to own for the second half. Its capital-light AI strategy positions it as a toll booth for on-device consumer AI use, avoiding the massive capex that is making other big tech investors nervous. After getting Beijing approval for AI models on iPhones in China, the narrative has shifted strongly in Apple's favor.
AAPL LONG
Berkshire Hathaway benefits from current trends
Berkshire Hathaway is having a moment because its insurance, utility, transportation, and consumer franchises are all firing. It owns everything investors want right now, from Coca-Cola and American Express to industrials and utilities, making the stock a beneficiary of the current market rotation.
BRK.B LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 24
Jul 24
FDS 1ST
SPCX
TSLA
MSCI 1ST
▾
HIGH
FactSet turnaround irreplaceable data AI enabler.
FactSet is a deeply undervalued turnaround story. The stock dropped from $500 to $200, and Baron Capital has been buying aggressively. The new CEO, a top former JPMorgan executive nearly succeeding Jamie Dimon, is embedding FactSet's services into clients' workflows with proprietary data that cannot be replaced by AI. The company uses low-priced commodity services to gain entry and then sells high-value, irreplaceable solutions. Management is buying back stock heavily, and the narrative that AI will destroy the company is wrong—FactSet is an AI enabler.
FDS LONG
SpaceX will be world's most valuable company.
SpaceX will become the world's most valuable company, potentially worth $20-$40 trillion, representing 20-30x return from its IPO over the next 10-15 years. The firm has aggressively accumulated a $25 billion position through 27 transactions, treating it as a once-in-a-generation compounder driven by Elon Musk's unique vision, vertical integration, reusable rockets, and a business model no competitor can replicate.
SPCX LONG
Tesla will compound many more times.
Tesla is transforming from a hardware company into a software and robotics powerhouse with a massive competitive advantage in autonomous driving (robotaxi/cybercab) and humanoid robots (Optimus). Ron expects to make 4-5x on the investment over the next 10 years, as Tesla's vehicle and energy businesses are just the beginning of a much larger mission to transition humanity to renewable energy and automation, underpinned by Elon Musk's ability to vertically integrate and drive down costs beyond competitors.
TSLA LONG
MSCI AI fears are overblown buying opportunity.
MSCI is an amazing business with proprietary data that the market mistakenly sold off on AI replacement fears. The company, led by founder and chairman Henry Fernandez, is expanding into private markets data and providing critical, irreplaceable information to hedge funds and investors. AI large language models will likely become customers rather than competitors, enabling MSCI to grow. Baron Capital owns over a billion dollars and views the recent selloff as a buying opportunity.
MSCI LONG
HIGH
17:47
Jul 22
Jul 22
IEF 1ST
GLD
RSP
EUFN 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
10-year Treasury yield likely to rise.
In a fiscally dominant era, yields face upside risk rather than downside risk. The 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5% as term premium expands, making bonds positively correlated to equities and putting bond prices at risk. This environment favors a short duration stance.
IEF SHORT
Gold cheap but awaiting a catalyst.
Gold has become inexpensive relative to global liquidity and money supply trends, but currently lacks a catalyst because central banks are in tightening mode and AI is absorbing all speculative bandwidth. Once a catalyst emerges—such as renewed central bank buying or fast money rotation—gold could reprice higher.
GLD WATCH
Equal-weight S&P 500 breaking out bullish.
The bull market is broadening out, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight index breaking out and catching up while the headline index remains stable. This reduces concentration risk and presents an opportunity for outperformance in equal-weight strategies, as 71% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average and the market is broadening without damaging the headline index.
RSP LONG
European banks: cheap, high yield, uncorrelated.
European banks offer a 7% yield, an 88% payout ratio, trade at a 10x P/E, and are only 11% correlated to the Mag 7. Their performance has kept pace with AI themes, making them a compelling, boring, high-yield diversification play in this boom era.
EUFN LONG
Semis cheap on surging AI earnings.
Semiconductor earnings have tripled over the past year, driving the forward P/E down to 14x. If the AI boom is structural rather than cyclical, this low valuation and strong earnings growth make semiconductors attractive despite the correction. The fundamentals remain strong, and fast money flows confirm momentum, but the secular AI buildout supports a structural bull case.
SMH LONG
US financials: high payout, AI beneficiary.
S&P 500 Financials have an 84% payout ratio, a 5% yield, and are potentially large beneficiaries of the AI buildout because they hold vast customer data and operate on inefficient legacy rails that AI can improve. This gives them a dual role as high-yield value and an AI‑adjacent play.
XLF LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
NKE
NFLX
IMAX
SPY
▾
HIGH
Nike lost its moat, avoid
Nike has lost its brand moat, the fundamentals are deteriorating, and the stock market is signaling that the company will not regain its former glory, making the stock one to avoid.
NKE AVOID
Netflix undervalued, strong margins, buy
Netflix is the only heavily sold-off tech stock that Michael fully understands; it has a premium brand, 30% margins, still growing, and is now trading at a market multiple, making it an attractive buy despite decelerating growth and content business risks.
NFLX LONG
Nolan box office fuels IMAX profits
IMAX is Michael's biggest position because Christopher Nolan's films and the broader box-office rebound are driving massive premium-format ticket sales, with The Odyssey delivering the highest pre-sales ever and IMAX capturing 24% of tickets.
IMAX LONG
S&P 500 not a bubble, stay long
The S&P 500 is not in a bubble because forward P/E ratios are compressing, the market already prices in unsustainable semiconductor earnings, and the broad market advance is supported by rising earnings and margins, not irrational exuberance.
SPY LONG
HIGH
22:15
Jul 21
Jul 21
SPCX
GOOGL FLIP
SMH
XBI 1ST
AAPL
▾
HIGH
SpaceX will drop below $100.
SpaceX will drop below $100 as a massive lockup expiry unleashes over 900 million shares, quadrupling the float. No near-term earnings or valuation anchor exists, and the technical picture shows no bottom. The decline will create a long-term buying opportunity in a company with immense promise.
SPCX WATCH
Alphabet is the clean AI hyperscaler play.
Alphabet is the cleanest remaining AI hyperscaler story, free from the overhangs of Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle. Google cloud backlog is at a record, capex guidance will drive the AI capex trade, and new revenue streams like TPU hardware monetization are emerging. A beat and raised guidance could reignite the entire AI group and push the S&P 500 higher.
GOOGL LONG
Semiconductors rebound after leverage washout.
The severe drawdown in semiconductors flushed out leveraged speculative money, and real institutional buyers stepped in at 30-40% off highs with conviction. This washout sets up a strong rally in semis, as the market has already absorbed the selling pressure and former leaders are recovering.
SMH LONG
Biotech stocks heading to $200 on XBI.
Biotech stocks have been deeply out of favor and are now bouncing back. The equal-weight biotech ETF XBI is showing relative strength versus cap-weighted peers, signaling risk appetite for the sector. The chart is not a double top but a round trip, with underlying companies having improved earnings and fundamentals, and XBI is ultimately headed to 200.
XBI LONG
Apple's AI catalysts drive sustained outperformance.
Apple is resolving its biggest negatives one by one. It secured Chinese government approval to deploy AI on iPhones in its second-largest market, a major catalyst not yet priced in. Additionally, Apple is raising prices and will benefit from declining memory component costs, expanding margins and driving sustained outperformance.
AAPL LONG
Insurance sector benefits from higher rates/premiums.
Insurance is the strongest subsector within financials this summer. Insurers benefit from a lack of major catastrophes, rising premiums that consumers are willing to pay, and elevated interest rates that boost investment income. Charts show robust technical respect for the 200-day moving average across Travelers, Chubb, and AFLAC.
TRV LONG
AFL LONG
CB LONG
Invest in top-K consumer luxury companies.
The K-shaped economy is real but the extreme is at the top—affluent consumers are thriving. Investing in companies that serve the top of the K is a legitimate and powerful strategy right now. High-end insurance, luxury travel, and premium credit cards are earning record profits as wealthy clients spend freely.
H LONG
DAL LONG
AXP LONG
Market divergence resolves bullishly, not catch-down.
The bearish narrative that the rest of the market will catch down to the sold-off AI names is flawed. The S&P 500 held up while the largest, most speculative sector got crushed, showing massive rotation and strong breadth. This is a bullish resolution—the market has absorbed the washout and AI names are recovering, so the path forward is higher.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 17
Jul 17
FINANC 1ST
S&P 500 excluding Magnificent Seven
XLV 1ST
NVDA
▾
MED
Healthcare and financials are next AI winners.
As the AI theme matures, the next wave of beneficiaries will be the adopters using AI to improve productivity, particularly in healthcare (drug discovery, insurance underwriting) and financials (process automation). These sectors have companies that could be among the biggest winners of AI as users, not just as enablers.
FINANC LONG
XLV LONG
Market broadening beyond Magnificent Seven.
The sharp concentration in the Magnificent Seven is unwinding as the rest of the market (S&P 493) begins to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains. The handoff from massive capex by big tech to earnings growth across the broader market is underway, with the 493 already trouncing the Mag 7 year-to-date.
S&P 500 excluding Magnificent Seven LONG
Nvidia's P/E compressed, not a bubble.
Nvidia's multiple has compressed to around 18x earnings, a discount to the S&P 500, even as earnings continue to surge. This is not a bubble—bubbles are marked by expanding multiples. The stock's failure to react to further earnings beats creates a potential value opportunity, though capex sustainability is a risk.
NVDA LONG
MED
17:38
Jul 15
Jul 15
SPY
▾
MED
Stay invested in S&P 500 index
The best and worst market days cluster together, so timing the market is nearly impossible. Missing the best days drastically reduces returns, but staying invested through buy-and-hold captures both, producing solid long-term results, as illustrated by the world's worst market timer who bought at peaks but never sold.
SPY LONG
MED
13:00
Jul 15
Jul 15
High Yield Municipal Bonds
U.S. Investment-Grade Bonds
SMH
SPXT 1ST
▾
MED
High yield munis beat private credit.
High yield municipal bonds offer a taxable equivalent yield around 9%, comparable to private credit yields, but with the advantage of being in a more liquid wrapper, making them an attractive fixed income investment.
High Yield Municipal Bonds LONG
Bonds offer highest yields in years.
Investment-grade bonds now offer yields around 5%, levels not seen in over 15 years, providing a large margin of safety and making bonds an attractive allocation relative to cash and other assets.
U.S. Investment-Grade Bonds LONG
Semiconductor top may be forming.
The chart showing hyperscaler free cash flow crashing while semiconductor free cash flow surges cannot continue, and if hyperscalers turn on each other in an AI capex brawl, semiconductor stocks could be the ones that get hit the worst, suggesting a potential top in the sector.
SMH WATCH
S&P 500 ex-tech hits new highs.
The S&P 500 ex-Technology Index (SPXT) has broken out to a new all-time high, signaling broad market participation beyond tech stocks and indicating that the bull market is expanding into other sectors.
SPXT LONG
MED
22:16
Jul 14
Jul 14
SK Hynix ADR
AAPL
PANW
GS 1ST
C 1ST
▾
HIGH
SK Hynix ADR too gap-prone for most
The US-listed SK Hynix ADR is the tail, not the dog; the primary listing trades in Seoul, causing large overnight gaps up or down, making it extremely volatile and unsuitable for many investors expecting a price pattern aligned with US hours.
SK Hynix ADR AVOID
Apple controls consumer AI access
Apple's installed base of 2.5 billion devices makes it the gatekeeper for consumer AI, allowing it to monetize any LLM accessed through iOS. The lawsuit against OpenAI is a defensive move to stifle hardware competition and protect that toll position. Apple's partnership with Google's Gemini further cements its central role, regardless of which AI model wins.
AAPL LONG
Enterprise spending shifts to cyber and AI hardware
IBM's revenue miss and pre-announcement reveal that enterprise IT spending is rotating away from traditional SaaS toward AI infrastructure (servers, memory, GPUs) and cybersecurity. IBM's customers are prioritizing workload security and AI hardware, benefiting cyber stocks and hardware vendors like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Dell, which hit new highs on the news.
PANW LONG
CRWD LONG
DELL LONG
Bull market fuels big bank profits
We are in a classic equity bull market where the business lines that benefit the most—trading, prime brokerage, equity finance, IPOs, secondaries—are booming. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are the prime beneficiaries, posting explosive equity trading revenues and record banking fees, with strong consumer and small business resilience underpinning the economy.
GS LONG
JPM LONG
Citigroup turnaround outperforms all banks
Citigroup has been the best-performing bank over the last three years, even beating JPMorgan, thanks to Jane Fraser’s aggressive portfolio pruning—selling 25 businesses—to shrink and refocus the franchise, proving the turnaround story is working.
C LONG
ServiceTitan breakout in old-economy vertical
ServiceTitan is a sticky hardware/software platform dominating the old-economy vertical of plumbers, builders, and carpenters. It is the fastest-growing software platform in its space, poised to become the industry standard. The technicals are improving for the first time, with the 200-day moving average being challenged, RSI at 65, and a strong consolidation above $60.
TTAN LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jul 13
Jul 13
DIA
Semiconductor capital equipment stocks
Mag 8 (mega-cap tech ex-Tesla)
SPY 1ST
QQQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech likely to underperform S&P in coming months.
Technology (XLK) outperformance versus the S&P 500 recently hit a 100-day rolling extreme of 25 points, a 3+ standard deviation event seen only 0.7% of the time since 1999. History shows that such extremes tend to revert, with tech underperforming over the following 100 trading days (through late October). The prior extreme in 2023 saw only a mild pullback, but the 1999-2000 episode saw sharp underperformance once the Fed hiked rates. Though a solid labor market offsets risk, a hawkish Fed under the new chair is a key risk. Near-term it is reasonable to expect tech's relative return to pull back toward its long-run average of 1.2 points of outperformance.
DIA WATCH
Buy semi capital equipment on chip buildout.
The hyperscalers' massive push to build their own chips creates a direct, concentrated demand for semiconductor capital equipment. This capital equipment business is a better way to play the AI buildout because it matters less who is ultimately selling finished chips—as long as someone is making chips, the equipment makers benefit.
Semiconductor capital equipment stocks LONG
Rotate from expensive semis to Mag 8 mega-caps.
Within tech, semiconductor stocks have seen massive earnings revisions (next-year estimates up ~33% avg) and trade at 52.5x forward earnings, more than double the 25.9x multiple of the Mag 8 ex-Tesla. With semis up 168% YTD, the bar to keep outperforming is much higher. A mechanical rotation is likely as concentrated gains force money staying in tech to flow into cheaper, fundamentally solid names. The Mag 8's lower collective multiple and still-strong expected earnings growth make it the obvious destination for catch-up in H2 2026.
Mag 8 (mega-cap tech ex-Tesla) LONG
US recession resistance supports high equity valuations.
The US economy has become structurally recession-resistant due to a services-based economy, less energy intensity, better-managed companies using technology, more educated workers, rapid policy responses, a gig economy buffer, and higher government spending. This steady economy yields stable earnings and cash flow growth, supporting higher valuations for equities. The S&P 500's 20x earnings multiple is justified, not irrational exuberance, because earnings are less likely to drop due to recession.
SPY LONG
Nasdaq bull run likely extends, buy dips.
After three straight 20%+ years following a down year, the Nasdaq has historically extended its rally into a fourth year 67% of the time, with an average gain of 5.1% (16.8% when excluding losing years). The current setup matches two prior episodes (late‑1990s and 2019-2021), both of which saw multi-year runs before a Fed-driven bear market. As long as a rate shock is avoided, history suggests the Nasdaq should continue rallying beyond 2026, and pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities.
QQQ LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 10
Jul 10
US Dollar Index (DXY)
KS 1ST
NVDA 1ST
MSFT 1ST
AMZN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stay overweight all major US assets.
Since the post-2008 era, overweighting US dollar, credit, equities, real estate, and infrastructure has been enormously profitable. The dollar remains the unchallenged world reserve currency with no signs of a shift in its dominant shares of trade, FX reserves, SWIFT payments, and cross-border loans. US equities appear expensive on PE ratios, but PEG ratios are not out of line due to strong earnings growth. The lack of a viable alternative to the dollar and the continuing inflow of immigrants and innovation support staying long the US across all major asset classes.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
SPY LONG
VNQ LONG
LQD LONG
PAVE LONG
Korean memory stocks face cyclical reversal risk.
Memory and semiconductor stocks have historically been highly cyclical. The current environment resembles late 1999, with hyperscaler stocks beginning to roll over while the semiconductor index still zooms. Korean memory makers Samsung and SK hynix are the last beneficiaries of the AI capex boom and are vulnerable to a sharp reversal if hyperscalers fail to justify their capital spending. These names are described as 'the last train on the caboose' and face significant downside risk.
KS AVOID
Nvidia faces serious internal customer competition.
Nvidia's key hyperscale customers have developed their own AI accelerators (Google TPUs, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Meta NIA) that deliver 30-40% total cost of ownership advantages over Nvidia GPUs. Even if these in-house chips are only used to replace internal Nvidia purchases, it represents a major erosion of Nvidia's demand base and undermines the narrative of an untouchable monopoly. The market has already compressed Nvidia's forward P/E substantially, signaling caution.
NVDA AVOID
Hyperscaler stocks face capex/return headwinds.
The major hyperscalers have started borrowing to fund their AI capex, and free cash flow margins are declining steeply. Within 18 months they must demonstrate that corporate AI adoption is translating into revenue, or the stocks face further pressure. The market is already showing skepticism, with hyperscaler equities underperforming and the group at risk if AI spending fails to deliver a return on the trillion-plus dollars being deployed.
MSFT AVOID
AMZN AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
ORCL AVOID
Enterprise software pressured by AI substitution threat.
Generative AI tools are giving corporate CTOs the ability to displace or renegotiate expensive vendor software subscriptions. Contract renewals are no longer automatic, and the narrative has shifted from SaaS lock-in to a threat of substitution. The concept of 'the death of Salesforce' emerged quickly as an example, indicating that enterprise software valuations may be impaired by AI-driven deflation in software spend.
CRM AVOID
IGV AVOID
AI-driven cyber threats boost cybersecurity spending.
The rapid discovery of bizarre, previously unknown vulnerabilities by AI models will lead to a 'carnival for bad actors,' both state-sponsored and independent. This 'Patchmageddon' environment will force companies to rapidly increase cybersecurity spending to avoid disastrous breaches, creating a powerful structural tailwind for the cybersecurity sector.
HACK LONG
HIGH
17:54
Jul 08
Jul 08
AGG
Short-to-Intermediate-Term Bond Fund
SPY
▾
HIGH
Retirees need bonds for safety.
Retirees face sequence-of-return risk without job income or new savings, so a 80/20 stock/bond portfolio provides a necessary margin of safety. An ultra-aggressive 90/10 stock/cash allocation leaves too little dry powder to weather extended bear markets and may force selling equities at depressed prices to replenish cash, risking permanent damage to retirement assets.
AGG LONG
Use short-term bond fund for purchases.
For a large planned purchase like a vacation home 3-7 years away, matching the liability with a 3-7 year bond fund locks in yield near the inflation rate and avoids the risk of equity drawdowns. Selling stocks years in advance also triggers unnecessary taxes that stop compounding; a bond fund preserves capital for the goal while earning income.
Short-to-Intermediate-Term Bond Fund LONG
Stocks beat housing for young investors.
Young people unable to afford homes are increasingly investing in the stock market, which provides a superior long-term inflation hedge and higher returns than housing. Over long time horizons, stocks compound into larger portfolios, so forsaking homeownership for stock ownership can leave young investors financially better off.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 08
Jul 08
STZ 1ST
SPY
NFLX
BUD 1ST
▾
HIGH
US beer weak, global beer strong
Constellation Brands is struggling as US beer demand weakens, especially among its Hispanic consumer base, while global beer demand is strong, benefiting AB InBev which owns the global rights to many brands and is seeing strong sales outside the US.
STZ AVOID
BUD LONG
Earnings and margins rising, valuations falling
Earnings growth is accelerating and outpacing market returns; valuations are falling because fundamentals are keeping up; profit margins continue to rise and with AI coming there is no reason they should stop. This supports a bullish outlook for US large‑cap stocks.
SPY LONG
Netflix buys on 50‑60% drawdowns always win
Netflix has historically been a great buying opportunity whenever it falls 50‑60%, and it still accounts for half of the most‑watched shows on streaming, indicating its dominance remains strong despite the current drawdown.
NFLX LONG
HIGH
22:07
Jul 07
Jul 07
MU
WDC FLIP
STX 1ST
TSLA 1ST
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid memory stocks; extreme valuations, peak growth.
Memory chip stocks (Micron, Western Digital, Seagate) have experienced steep drawdowns but remain extremely extended above their 200-day moving averages. Samsung's 19-fold profit surge was not enough to satisfy investors, signaling peak growth expectations that will inevitably slow. Historically, buying a stock that is 200% above its 200-day moving average does not reward new investors, suggesting these names are too risky to enter at current levels and may be topping.
MU AVOID
WDC AVOID
STX AVOID
Tesla to 500 on robot/SpaceX catalysts.
Tesla is set to rise from 400 to 500, with significant catalysts in the robotics division and the potential for SpaceX to acquire the company by year-end. These factors create upside beyond the current price.
TSLA LONG
Bull market backed by earnings growth.
The current bull market is backed by a rare period of consecutive double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth. In 98 years of data, the market has only fallen five times when the current year and next year both had such strong earnings growth, and not once since 1994. This history suggests the bull run is likely to continue and fading the market would be a mistake.
SPY LONG
Apple to $400 on iPhone/AI strength.
Apple is breaking out to new highs with a price target of $400. Catalysts: iPhone 17 sales momentum, upcoming iPhone 18 Pro price increases offsetting memory costs, foldable iPhone launch with constrained supply, new CEO John Turnis, and the AI services monetization story. Siri will become the toll booth for LLMs, allowing Apple to collect fees regardless of which model consumers choose, across 2.5 billion devices. Earnings are expected to grow 17% this year and 9.8% next year, with services hitting record highs. Technicals are strong, with the stock holding its 200-day moving average and aggressive buyer accumulation.
AAPL LONG
Long Hyatt on luxury hotel repositioning.
Hyatt has transformed into a luxury-focused hotel company, with 47% of its portfolio now in luxury rooms (up from 32% in 2017) and the world's largest portfolio of luxury branded resort rooms. Luxury revenue per available room is growing strongly (8%) while standard room revenue is flat, as the top 10% of earners drive half of all consumer spending. The stock is trending higher and should continue to outperform.
H LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 03
Jul 03
CHTR 1ST
S&P MidCap 400
GOOGL
META 1ST
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Avoid Charter, doomed by secular decline.
Charter Communications is the worst stock in the world. It has too much debt, faces secular decline from cord-cutting, has no PE rescue, and will eventually be obsoleted by satellite broadband like Starlink.
CHTR AVOID
Small and mid-caps will keep outperforming.
Small and mid-cap stocks offer significantly higher earnings growth (28% for small caps vs 23-24% for large caps) and attractive price-to-free-cash-flow. A broadening market and potential falling 10-year yields will further fuel SMID outperformance.
S&P MidCap 400 LONG
IJR LONG
Google will outperform Meta going forward.
Google is the superior pick over Meta. Google is better positioned, more focused, and will benefit from the divergence between the two stocks, especially given Meta's unfocused AI spending and capital allocation blunders.
GOOGL LONG
Avoid Meta due to unfocused AI spending.
Meta's AI initiatives make no sense, and its capital allocation history is poor. The company is not a believer in its strategy and should be avoided in favor of Google.
META AVOID
Microsoft is unjustly punished, buy now.
Microsoft is down 23-24% year-to-date despite 34% ROE, $78 billion on the balance sheet, and 25% quarterly earnings growth. It is being unjustly punished and offers an attractive rebalancing opportunity.
MSFT LONG
S&P 500 hits new highs before year-end.
The S&P 500 will reach all-time highs by year-end despite increased volatility. The earnings-driven market still supports a broadening out trade, and the secular bull market has years to run.
SPY LONG
Oracle unfairly sold off on AI fears.
Oracle is being unjustly punished over AI-related fears and the OpenAI contract. The company was an early AI adopter and its stock's decline is overdone.
ORCL LONG
Schwab looks cheap and interesting.
Charles Schwab looks interesting because the exchanges are cheap after recent sell-offs, offering value in the financial sector.
SCHW LONG
Glacier Bancorp wins on local relationships.
Glacier Bancorp is winning business from large banks like Chase in growing regions such as Bozeman, Montana. Small banks benefit from relationship banking and consolidation as people and companies move to low-tax states.
GBCI LONG
FNB rides migration to western Pennsylvania.
FNB Corporation is a regional bank in Western Pennsylvania that benefits from demographic migration and consolidation. It is a play on people moving to areas with lower taxes and costs.
FNB LONG
Acuity cools data centers, AI winner.
Acuity manufactures ceiling tiles that keep wiring cool inside data centers, making it a direct thematic play on the AI data center buildout.
AYI LONG
Netflix wins streaming through consolidation.
Netflix is the long-term winner in streaming thanks to cash, content, and consolidation. The sell-off after the failed Warner bid was sentiment-driven, and the company will benefit from further industry consolidation.
NFLX LONG
CME is cheap after being crushed.
CME Group and other exchanges have been crushed and are now cheap, presenting a buying opportunity. The sell-off on competition fears is overdone, and the business remains strong.
CME LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 01
Jul 01
EWY 1ST
TSM 1ST
MU FLIP
NFLX
DPZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Leverage creates air pocket risk in tech
Extreme leverage in the system is creating fragile positions in stocks like Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor, and South Korean equities. These are 100% being pushed around by leverage and speculative flows, making them highly susceptible to sudden air-pocket selloffs of 10-20% in a day, which could trigger cascading selling.
EWY AVOID
TSM AVOID
MU AVOID
Buy hyperscalers on capex fear weakness
The market is irrationally punishing hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and Netflix due to AI capex fears, but they remain dominant, well-run companies. Their current weakness represents a long-term buying opportunity, as the risk of them driving their businesses off a cliff is extremely low. He personally bought Microsoft and Netflix.
NFLX LONG
META LONG
MSFT LONG
Avoid Domino's, pizza losing to chicken
Domino's Pizza stock looks horrendous as pizza's market share is shrinking, with consumers increasingly choosing chicken and other restaurant options. The rise of DoorDash and diverse delivery reduces pizza's historical delivery advantage, and the company-specific troubles (CFO resignation) add pressure.
DPZ AVOID
Small cap rally is healthy broadening
The Russell 2000 is up over 22% YTD with 67% of names positive and a median return above 15%. This broad participation across 900 stocks with 20%+ gains signals a significant market widening beyond mega-caps, which is very healthy for the bull market.
IWM LONG
No bubble, fundamentals justify current prices
Despite speculation and leverage, the stock market is not in a bubble because fundamental valuations remain rational. Nvidia trades at 24x forward earnings, the market is actively re-rating overpriced areas lower, and earnings support current prices. A NASDAQ drop of 50% or more would be required to prove a bubble, and that is unlikely.
SPY LONG
HIGH
22:18
Jun 30
Jun 30
IWM 1ST
MSTR FLIP
TOST
MAGS 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Small caps at all-time highs, bullish.
Small caps are breaking out to all-time highs, ratifying the broadening of the bull market and providing a strong bullish signal.
IWM LONG
MicroStrategy broken thesis, avoid stock.
MicroStrategy's three-lever strategy of selling stock, never selling Bitcoin, and issuing preferreds has unraveled. The company is now selling Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends, inverting the original thesis. It is no longer a clean levered Bitcoin play, and the financial engineering has become a risk for ordinary shareholders.
MSTR AVOID
Toast AI beneficiary in restaurant industry.
Toast is not a software company that will be disrupted by AI; it will be an AI beneficiary. Its installed hardware in restaurants and Toast IQ product put it in pole position to deliver AI-driven hospitality solutions. The stock is breaking a year-long downtrend on good volume with RSI confirmation.
TOST LONG
Mag 7 underperforming, worst trade this year.
The Magnificent Seven are the worst trade of the year, with every other quadrant of the market from small value to midcap growth outperforming them. As the rally broadens, money is rotating away from the mega-cap tech leaders.
MAGS AVOID
S&P 500 margins unsustainably high.
S&P 500 profit margins are at a record 14.8%, about twice the post-war average, and earnings are artificially boosted by slow depreciation of AI chips and revaluation write-ups of private AI stakes. This creates an illusion of rapid earnings growth and makes the market look less expensive than it really is. Mean reversion in margins could lead to a significant stock market decline.
SPY AVOID
Regional banks hitting all-time highs.
Regional banks are breaking out to all-time highs, joining the broad market's bullish signal and indicating underlying economic strength.
KRE LONG
Nike washed out, buy for recovery.
Nike stock is down 73% from highs and sentiment cannot get worse. The bad earnings report was expected and priced in, and the stock is washed out. This creates a buying opportunity for a turnaround.
NKE LONG
AI semiconductor cycle is uniquely profitable.
The AI semiconductor cycle is 'massively different this time,' not just another commodity boom. Companies like Micron are guiding to unprecedented revenue and margins (e.g., $50B quarterly at 86% gross margins). Missing the upside of this historic upcycle is a bigger risk than the eventual downturn.
SMH LONG
MU LONG
Transports breaking out, confirming bullish signal.
Transports, including airlines and trucking companies, are breaking out to all-time highs, confirming the durability of the rally as economically sensitive sectors participate.
IYT LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jun 29
Jun 29
BOT
▾
HIGH
BOT flywheel captures private robotics upside
RoboStrategy (BOT) is a publicly listed closed-end fund that concentrates on leading private humanoid robotics companies (Figure AI, Apptronik, Dino Robotics). It uses a MicroStrategy-like flywheel: issuing shares at a premium to NAV and using the proceeds to buy more private robotics equity, increasing exposure per share over time. This gives retail investors access to the most exciting robotics innovation happening in private markets, which are poised to capture a massive share of the $50 trillion physical labor market as humanoid robots become economically superior to human workers.
BOT LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 26
Jun 26
MTUM 1ST
GLD 1ST
MU
SPY
XLK
▾
HIGH
Momentum stretched but earnings justify continuation.
Momentum factor is historically stretched at the 95th–100th percentile, but unlike past episodes the move is backed by enormous fundamental profit growth—companies like Micron are generating unprecedented earnings, so the momentum can persist even if it remains extended.
MTUM LONG
Gold hurt by rising real yields.
Gold is facing a clear headwind from rising real yields and a perceived more hawkish Fed. Carson recently sold most of its tactical gold allocation because real yields moving higher has historically punished gold, and the post-war inflation trade is unwinding.
GLD AVOID
Micron earnings explode, supply stays tight.
Micron Technology is in an extraordinary profit cycle. Forward earnings have surged 1440% since January 2025, revenue jumped 74% quarter-over-quarter and 364% year-over-year, and the company expects DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight beyond 2027. Even after the massive stock run, earnings are catching up, and gross margins are hitting 84%, making the valuation defensible.
MU LONG
Bull market has more room to run.
This is not a bubble. Bull markets typically last longer than investors expect; since World War II the average bull run has been about 7 years, and this one is only 3.5 years old, making it hard to stop. The market is still riding the wave, with ongoing earnings support and no internal warning signs like the staples rally that preceded the 2022 top.
SPY LONG
Overweight technology, earnings justify valuation.
Technology remains a favored overweight. Earnings growth from semiconductors and AI capex continues to justify elevated multiples, and the theme is still the primary momentum driver in the market.
XLK LONG
Small caps breaking out with broad participation.
Small caps are breaking out on both absolute and relative bases. The cumulative advance-decline line for small caps made a new all-time high alongside price, signaling broad participation. Rotation out of mega-cap tech into more domestically-oriented small caps is a classic healthy market signal.
IWM LONG
Regional bank breakout signals strong economy.
Regional banks are ripping to new highs. These stocks are the lifeblood of the real economy—reliant on consumers paying bills, home equity lines, credit cards, auto loans, and small business lending—with no capital-markets exposure. Their breakout makes a macro doom case very difficult to support.
KRE LONG
Managed futures diversify inflation risk.
Managed futures have performed very well in this higher-inflation environment. They were added to portfolios as a diversifier specifically because they can thrive when rates stay elevated and inflation runs above trend, filling the role that long-duration bonds normally play in a 60/40 portfolio.
DBMF LONG
Industrials strength is fantastically bullish.
Industrials are ripping even as the Mag 7 stumbles, and the market remains near all-time highs. Historically, relative outperformance of the non-Mag 7 S&P 500 has occurred during deep drawdowns; seeing it happen at record highs is a fantastically bullish development, signaling healthy rotation.
XLI LONG
HIGH
17:00
Jun 24
Jun 24
SPY
ACWX 1ST
▾
MED
AI crash is buying opportunity for US stocks.
An AI bubble pop or a U.S. market correction would be a wonderful buying opportunity for U.S. stocks, similar to the 2022 inflation selloff. The long-term promise of AI isn't going away, and equities historically rebound sharply after non-recessionary bear markets. However, timing is hard and post-crash leadership may shift.
SPY WATCH
Overweight international stocks now.
International equities, especially emerging markets like South Korea and Taiwan, are participating in the AI trade and outperforming the U.S. this year. Overweighting international stocks now makes sense as a tactical allocation while the broadening of AI benefits the rest of the world.
ACWX LONG
MED
13:00
Jun 24
Jun 24
V 1ST
MA 1ST
NFLX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stablecoins hurt Visa, Mastercard.
Crypto and stablecoins are disrupting traditional payment networks. Visa and Mastercard are seeing their multiples compress as the market prices in the threat from blockchain-based payment rails, making these stocks unattractive in the face of potential displacement.
V AVOID
MA AVOID
Buy Netflix on weakness as value transition.
Netflix is undergoing a messy transition from a growth stock to a value stock. Ben Carlson owns it, is comfortable with the position despite being down 30%, and would buy more on further declines because he believes the value transition will eventually work in the stock's favor.
NFLX LONG
HIGH
22:23
Jun 23
Jun 23
CME 1ST
IBKR 1ST
HOOD
IWM
NKE 1ST
▾
MED
CME selloff overdone, buy the king.
Fears that perpetual futures will displace CME equity products have caused an overdone sell-off in CME. CME is the dominant exchange and a 'king'; the pullback represents a buying opportunity.
CME LONG
Brokers over exchanges, buy IBKR HOOD.
Brokerages are more attractive than exchanges right now. He has bought Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers is making record highs; both look great.
IBKR LONG
HOOD LONG
Small cap breakout has temporary legs.
The small-cap vs large-cap ratio is breaking out, and this is happening despite high interest rates, suggesting the move has legs. Historically such renaissances last three to six months but eventually reverse when rates act.
IWM WATCH
Nike sentiment bottom, insider buying, long.
Nike is in its worst drawdown since 1982 with sentiment at a floor. Insider buying from the CEO and Tim Cook, combined with a new pre-order strategy that fixes customer frustration, suggest a turnaround opportunity despite China and tariff headwinds.
NKE LONG
Cybersecurity only trusted software sector.
Most software stocks are not making progress and cannot be trusted. If AI peaks, software could be a hedge, but selectivity is essential; cybersecurity is the only sub-sector he trusts.
HACK LONG
MED
21:00
Jun 22
Jun 22
BTC
ETH
SOL
▾
HIGH
Crypto to soar on tokenization, institutional demand.
Despite a brutal crypto winter with Bitcoin down 50% and Ethereum/Solana down 75%, the technological development and institutional engagement in tokenization are accelerating dramatically. Major institutions like BlackRock, Securitize, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are building products and allocating to crypto. Nearly 200 crypto ETFs exist, and 95% of endowments/pension funds plan to allocate by year-end. NYSE and NASDAQ are partnering to tokenize equities, enabling 24/7/365 trading with instant settlement. This tokenization wave will force more capital on-chain, driving the prices of coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana sharply higher over time.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 19
Jun 19
VGK 1ST
AI adopters
IGV 1ST
EWJ
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Europe re-industrializing, AI beneficiary.
Europe is being forced to re-industrialize and spend on defense, ending its post-WWII stasis. European equities contain many heavy-asset businesses that could be sneaky AI beneficiaries through productivity gains, making the region more investable.
VGK LONG
AI adopters see faster earnings growth.
Companies actively adopting AI are seeing EBITDA expansion roughly 2x faster than non-adopters, and the share of firms reporting tangible AI benefits in earnings calls is climbing. This supports a powerful tailwind for AI adopters.
AI adopters LONG
SaaS selloff overdone, moats intact.
Market fears of an enterprise software apocalypse are overblown. These companies retain a moat because industrializing AI inside large organizations still requires their platforms; the selloff has created value.
IGV LONG
Japan reforms and cash pile bullish.
Japan is already undergoing corporate governance reform, nationalism, and healthy inflation. With roughly 50% of the $7 trillion household base sitting in deposits, a shift into risk assets could drive a sustained bull market.
EWJ LONG
AI infrastructure earnings to surge massively.
AI capex is still in early stages, with hyperscalers planning massive spending and only a fraction of the buildout completed. Estimates point to $2.9 trillion in global data center capex through 2028, and consensus expects AI infrastructure stocks to grow earnings 42% by 2027 versus 10% for the S&P 500. Even if the ultimate ROI is debated, the spending is locked in.
AIQ LONG
Broadening trade to continue, buy equal-weight.
The broadening out of US equity performance is already happening, with equal-weight indices sharply outperforming the cap-weight S&P 500 and Mag7. Morgan Stanley expects this trend to continue as earnings growth broadens beyond mega-cap AI stocks.
RSP LONG
HIGH
18:12
Jun 17
Jun 17
SPY
▾
HIGH
Boomer selling won't crash stocks.
Fears that retiring baby boomers will turn into net sellers and crash the stock market are overblown for three reasons: (1) stock market wealth is highly concentrated (top 10% own 87% of shares), and most boomer wealth will be passed down, not spent; (2) boomers still need growth because retirement can last 20-30 years, RMDs are often reinvested, and they are on a glide path rather than selling all at once; (3) 73 million millennials entering prime earnings years will act as willing buyers, and younger generations are investing earlier and more through 401(k)s, providing structural demand that offsets any expected selling.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 17
Jun 17
AIQ 1ST
ETF 1ST
XLRE 1ST
EEM 1ST
VGK 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI washout is buying opportunity
AI is a life-changing technology and a potential 25-30% bear market driven by AI would not be an end-of-world crash but a great buying opportunity, because the world will move on and AI remains transformative.
AIQ LONG
Value stocks winning on cheap earnings
Value stocks are beating growth this year, with Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) outperforming Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) by 7-8%. The outperformance is driven by cheap earnings of memory stocks now classified as value, proving that these value stocks have real fundamentals, not just an AI narrative.
ETF LONG
Homebuilders bullish on pricing acceptance
Despite horrific affordability, there is a gradual realization that current home prices are the new normal, and the largest demographic cohort still needs to buy houses. This, combined with a bounce in homebuilder stocks and accelerating existing home sales, makes residential real estate stocks bullish, though the call could be early.
XLRE LONG
EM equities are AI earnings surprise
Emerging market equities are up 26% YTD with earnings growth dwarfing other regions, heavily driven by AI-exposed Korean and Taiwanese tech (e.g., SK Hynix, Samsung). The EM index has shifted from China-dominated to Korea/Taiwan-led, making EM the unexpected big winner of the AI era, demonstrating the power of diversification.
EEM LONG
Europe as safe haven from AI
European stocks offer a diversification hedge against the concentrated AI trade in the US. They are severely underweight tech and have less price buildup, so they would likely fall less if the S&P 500 declines, acting as a port in the storm.
VGK LONG
HIGH
22:13
Jun 16
Jun 16
SPCX 1ST
SFTBY
INTU FLIP
HOOD 1ST
WSM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tiny float creates unsustainable SpaceX valuation.
SpaceX's current $2.6 trillion market cap is a phantom based on an extremely small 3% float. When lockup periods expire and more shares flood the market, the stock is likely to trade significantly lower, as insiders and indices will use retail as exit liquidity. Even a $1.5 trillion valuation a year from now would be surprising and would signal a roaring bull market.
SPCX AVOID
SoftBank offers leveraged exposure to OpenAI IPO.
SoftBank (SFTBY) is a leveraged proxy for the upcoming OpenAI IPO. OpenAI comprises ~25% of SoftBank's equity value, and the IPO filing is a material catalyst. The discount to net asset value has narrowed from 50% to 17% and could flip to a premium as AI assets mature, providing upside when the IPO launches.
SFTBY WATCH
Intuit faces existential AI-driven disruption risk.
Intuit's core products like TurboTax are extremely vulnerable to AI chatbots (e.g., Claude) that can file taxes instantly for free, making the subscription redundant. The market is repricing this structural disruption, and the company is 'the most fucked' in software.
INTU AVOID
Robinhood recovery driven by volumes and cost cuts.
Robinhood is a buy after a 37% drawdown, with improving technicals (RSI above 60, rising 50-day). The company announced a 10% workforce reduction from a position of strength with record daily trading volumes. Prediction markets now represent 9% of revenue and are growing fast. Bitcoin's recovery also supports the stock.
HOOD LONG
Williams-Sonoma benefits from buybacks and housing stabilization.
Williams-Sonoma is a buy due to aggressive share buybacks that have inflated EPS. Housing is not getting worse and any lift will provide leverage to the stock. The stock is breaking out technically and is more attractive than Robinhood.
WSM LONG
HIGH
21:40
Jun 15
Jun 15
SPY 1ST
Meta Platforms Data Center Bond (Beignet deal)
AGG 1ST
Data Center Infrastructure Debt
HYG 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid US equities, valuations too high.
US equity valuations are historically stretched with the equity risk premium near zero and Shiller CAPE at extreme levels, suggesting poor forward returns over the next 5-10 years, and bonds are likely to outperform equities over that period.
SPY AVOID
AI infrastructure debt offers high yields.
The massive AI data center buildout is creating a huge need for debt financing, allowing lenders to negotiate favorable terms and earn 6-8% yields on investment-grade-like risk and 9-15% yields on riskier structures, providing an attractive alternative to equities with downside protection. Specific deals like Meta's data center bond are very liquid and offer a spread pickup over underlying credit.
Meta Platforms Data Center Bond (Beignet deal) LONG
Data Center Infrastructure Debt LONG
High-quality bonds offer attractive yields now.
High-quality bonds now offer attractive yields (around 5% for the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, up to 7-8% for other high-quality paper) and the starting yield has a strong historical correlation with future 5-year returns, making fixed income more appealing than it has been in 15 years.
AGG LONG
Avoid high-yield credit loss cycle.
A credit loss cycle is beginning: AI disruption is causing steady defaults in old-economy borrowers, while elevated interest costs squeeze floating-rate borrowers. Expected returns in high-yield and leveraged loans will compress from ~8% to 4-5%, making them unattractive relative to higher-quality bonds.
HYG AVOID
BKLN AVOID
AI disinflation supports long Treasury bonds.
Over the next several years, AI is likely to be a powerful disinflationary force by boosting productivity and reducing costs for goods and services, while potential middle-income job displacement leads to higher precautionary savings, further moderating inflation and supporting long-duration bonds.
TLT LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 12
Jun 12
IWM 1ST
SPCX
XLV 1ST
TRV 1ST
XLF
▾
HIGH
Oil peaks, small caps will outperform.
With oil prices, interest rates, and inflation expectations peaking, and the Federal Reserve eventually resuming its easing stance, small-cap stocks are poised to outperform. The Russell 2000 relative to the S&P 500 is showing a potential major breakout, and small caps have already been doing well this year.
IWM LONG
SpaceX IPO will pop and drop.
The SpaceX IPO is heavily over-subscribed and hyped, likely leading to a 30-40% pop at open, but the gains will not hold and the stock will eventually trade back to the offering price, offering a better entry point later.
SPCX WATCH
AI will boost healthcare and financials.
AI integration will substantially benefit underperforming sectors like financials and healthcare, improving efficiency and profitability as businesses adopt AI solutions. These sectors are expected to see substantial gains in the coming years.
XLV LONG
XLF LONG
AI boosts Travelers' underwriting profits.
Travelers is a concrete example of AI delivering tangible earnings improvement, reporting a 21% jump in underwriting profit directly attributed to AI investments. This suggests that AI adopters in insurance and beyond will see earnings upside, with Travelers as a current beneficiary.
TRV LONG
HIGH
17:57
Jun 10
Jun 10
SPY 1ST
VTI 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Pay taxes to de-risk stock-heavy portfolios.
For retired investors in high-tax states sitting on large unrealized stock gains, it's better to incur capital gains taxes and sell to rebalance to a less risky allocation, because the market could correct and eliminate the gains; don't let tax consequences drive portfolio decisions, you've won the game and should pay taxes to secure your retirement.
SPY AVOID
VTI AVOID
Avoid long-duration Treasury bonds (TLT).
Long-duration Treasury bonds (like TLT) are too volatile and do not compensate investors for that risk; better to avoid them and use cash or short-term instruments, while taking risk in equities where you are paid for volatility.
TLT AVOID
MED
12:58
Jun 10
Jun 10
SPLV
BTC FLIP
BRK.B 1ST
SPY
▾
MED
Low-vol ETF avoids tech bubble.
SPLV has less than 1% in tech and communication services, with exposure to utilities, financials, real estate. It has gone nowhere, resembling late 1990s low volatility, and could be a hiding place for those very worried about an AI bust.
SPLV WATCH
Crypto lags despite risk-on boom.
Crypto has historically been a risk-on asset. Now, during a full-risk-on tech boom, crypto is not keeping up, which is the most concerning signal for its performance.
BTC AVOID
Berkshire hides from AI crash.
If the AI trade ends abruptly, few places will hide. Berkshire Hathaway is lagging the index, has no bid, and is probably a good safe haven during a tech selloff.
BRK.B LONG
Buy S&P 500 two-percent dips.
During this bull market, there have been 13 prior 2% down days in the S&P 500, and four days later the index was higher 11 out of 13 times, suggesting dip buyers continue to be rewarded.
SPY LONG
MED
22:12
Jun 09
Jun 09
SPG 1ST
ANTHROPIC
MAR 1ST
H 1ST
OPENAI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Real estate benefits from hiring boom.
Amid AI disruption fears, companies are hiring faster than ever, increasing demand for real estate. Simon Property Group and Prologis are breaking out to new highs, benefiting from both the physical human presence and Prologis's pivot into data-center space.
SPG LONG
PLD LONG
Anthropic is discussed as a private/future-IPO AI company with enterprise traction, but there is no public tradable ticker or explicit current position.
ANTHROPIC WATCH
Hotels show strong affluent consumer.
The top 50% of consumers by income continue to spend heavily on travel, making hotel stocks a better proxy for stock-market Americans than restaurants. Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt show steady demand and high occupancy, indicating the consumer that matters is still strong.
MAR LONG
H LONG
HLT LONG
Avoid OpenAI IPO.
OpenAI loses $1.22 for every dollar earned, projects massive GAAP losses of $26 billion by 2026, and relies on free users for 95% of its customer base. This poor unit economics makes a trillion-dollar valuation unattractive compared to peers.
OPENAI AVOID
Standing routing rule: every visible SPCX/SpaceX row is watch; SpaceX IPO discussion is not a tradable public-equity long call.
SPCX WATCH
Bitcoin rip from extreme bearishness.
Bitcoin has fallen into a deep drawdown with extreme bearish sentiment not seen since the last 50% correction. This level of despondency historically precedes a false breakdown and a sharp rally, suggesting a contrarian bounce is near.
BTC LONG
Apple AI wearables will boost sales.
Apple's upcoming AI-powered Siri and new wearable devices (smart glasses, pendant, enhanced AirPods) will create a must-have user experience, sparking a new hardware upgrade cycle and driving device sales despite short-term skepticism.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jun 08
Jun 08
SMH 1ST
SPCX
SPY 1ST
IGV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Reduce semis, favor software rotation.
Semiconductors have outperformed software by 44 points, a 4-standard-deviation extreme. For tactical investors, this argues for reducing semiconductor exposure (SMH) and looking more closely at software (IGV) as rotation may favor software. For long-term AI believers, an index-weight approach to tech reduces concentration risk.
SMH AVOID
IGV LONG
SpaceX IPO pop signals bubble risk.
SpaceX's first-day IPO close relative to its $135 offer price serves as a key tell for whether the market is in a 1999-style bubble. If it closes at $231 (a 71% pop), that would match the average first-day return from 1999 and signal extreme froth. If it closes in the $154-166 range, it aligns with normal 1997-1998 conditions. This is a crucial event to monitor for market regime assessment.
SPCX WATCH
S&P 500 still has room to run.
The S&P 500's 50-day return of 15.3% is a 2-standard-deviation move. Historically, in 5 prior instances, the index was higher 50 days later with an average gain of 7.3%, and even the weakest outcome gained 2.6%. This suggests the broader market still has upside momentum.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 05
Jun 05
HUBB 1ST
VRT 1ST
ETN 1ST
CMI 1ST
CAT 1ST
▾
MED
Industrials trade like semis via AI capex.
Many non-tech industrial companies in the S&P 500 now trade like semiconductors because their order books are tied to AI data center capex. Examples include Vertiv, Eaton, Caterpillar, Cummins, Hubbell, Comfort Systems, and Generac. These stocks are effectively AI plays despite their sector classification.
HUBB LONG
VRT LONG
ETN LONG
CMI LONG
CAT LONG
FIX LONG
GNRC LONG
MED
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