Name: How to Bet on the OpenAI IPO | WAYT?
Uploaded: 2026-06-16T22:13:12+00:00
Duration: 4000 s

Speakers

Michael Batnick — Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Summary

Josh Brown and Michael Batnick analyze SpaceX's IPO, the end of stock scarcity, and the coming wave of equity issuance. They explore ways to bet on the OpenAI IPO via SoftBank, discuss AI's disruption of traditional software (especially Intuit), and make bullish cases for Robinhood and Williams-Sonoma. The episode also covers the surge in tech debt issuance and the dystopian economic implications of AI-driven layoffs.

SpaceX IPO creates a $2.6T phantom market cap on a 3% float; lockup expirations could bring a sharp decline.
SoftBank (SFTBY) is a high-risk, leveraged proxy for the OpenAI IPO catalyst.
AI chatbots threaten legacy software companies like Intuit, whose tax filing product could be replaced.
Robinhood is bought by Josh Brown after a deep drawdown, citing cost cuts, record volumes, and prediction market growth.
Williams-Sonoma is Michael Batnick's pick, driven by buybacks, EPS inflection, and housing market stabilization.
The era of stock buyback-driven scarcity is over; massive equity and debt issuance from mega-cap tech is arriving.
Rising tech layoffs may paradoxically boost S&P earnings, creating a weird bull market.

Ideas

Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 9:20

Tiny float creates unsustainable SpaceX valuation.

SpaceX's current $2.6 trillion market cap is a phantom based on an extremely small 3% float. When lockup periods expire and more shares flood the market, the stock is likely to trade significantly lower, as insiders and indices will use retail as exit liquidity. Even a $1.5 trillion valuation a year from now would be surprising and would signal a roaring bull market.

Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 24:02

SoftBank offers leveraged exposure to OpenAI IPO.

SoftBank (SFTBY) is a leveraged proxy for the upcoming OpenAI IPO. OpenAI comprises ~25% of SoftBank's equity value, and the IPO filing is a material catalyst. The discount to net asset value has narrowed from 50% to 17% and could flip to a premium as AI assets mature, providing upside when the IPO launches.

Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 43:55

Intuit faces existential AI-driven disruption risk.

Intuit's core products like TurboTax are extremely vulnerable to AI chatbots (e.g., Claude) that can file taxes instantly for free, making the subscription redundant. The market is repricing this structural disruption, and the company is 'the most fucked' in software.

Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 54:25

Robinhood recovery driven by volumes and cost cuts.

Robinhood is a buy after a 37% drawdown, with improving technicals (RSI above 60, rising 50-day). The company announced a 10% workforce reduction from a position of strength with record daily trading volumes. Prediction markets now represent 9% of revenue and are growing fast. Bitcoin's recovery also supports the stock.

Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 62:29

Williams-Sonoma benefits from buybacks and housing stabilization.

Williams-Sonoma is a buy due to aggressive share buybacks that have inflated EPS. Housing is not getting worse and any lift will provide leverage to the stock. The stock is breaking out technically and is more attractive than Robinhood.

How to Bet on the OpenAI IPO | WAYT?

Summary

Ideas

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