LIVE: Elon Is EVEN RICHER!? + SpaceX Buys Cursor, HYPE is COOKING, Kevin Warsh TOMORROW!!!!!!
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy passionately argues that the SpaceX IPO marks a historic shift in how markets value companies, signaling the end of DCF-based valuation and the rise of retail-driven, reflexive dynamics. He is bullish on SpaceX and Hyperliquid, sees a catalyst in AMC, speculates on a 1998-style S&P 500 rally, and turns bearish on Uber. The stream also covers macro topics like the upcoming Kevin Warsh FOMC meeting and the broader cryptoification of equities.
- SpaceX IPO seen as a paradigm shift—low float, crypto-like reflexivity, and a Cursor all-stock deal create powerful upside incentives.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) hits new highs, driven by record perp market share, CFTC support, and upcoming mega-IPO volume.
- AMC trade works well with the Odyssey movie catalyst approaching.
- S&P 500 compared to January 1998, hinting at a potential massive rally.
- Uber's moat questioned as AV commoditization and cheaper rivals like Empower threaten its dominance.
- First FOMC under Kevin Warsh discussed; oil's decline may ease inflation fears.
- Thread Guy emphasizes the edge crypto-native traders have in a stock market increasingly driven by memes, narratives, and retail flows.
Ideas
SpaceX reflexivity and retail dominance prevail.
SpaceX's IPO is a historic paradigm shift that mocks traditional DCF valuation. The low float (4–5% tradable), high fully-diluted value, and the incentive to push the stock above $175 for insider unlocks create a powerful reflexive pump. The all-stock acquisition of Cursor, where the number of shares issued depends on the average price over seven trading days, gives SpaceX insiders a massive incentive to keep the stock elevated. Combined with retail dominance, narrative-driven flows, and the crypto-educated trader's edge, SpaceX defies old valuation frameworks and can continue to squeeze higher, representing a "final boss" of retail versus TradFi.
Hyperliquid dominates on-chain perp trading.
Hyperliquid is the dominant story in crypto, hitting all-time highs with record 8.4% share of perpetual open interest. The CFTC chair's positive comments on on-chain perpetual futures and the Coinbase tokenized stocks announcement show regulatory and institutional acceptance. Upcoming high-profile IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) will drive massive volume and attention to the platform, making HYPE a key beneficiary of the cryptoification of equities. He bought at $52 and sees a clear bottom.
Odyssey blockbuster boosts AMC stock.
AMC has turned into a really good trade, up 27% since he bought, with a clear catalyst in the upcoming Odyssey release on July 17th. The momentum and event-driven upside make it attractive.
Uber's moat erodes amid AV commoditization.
Uber's moat as a platform for autonomous vehicles is weak. AV manufacturers can subsidize their own ride-hailing apps with the 20–30% cut they would otherwise give to Uber, attracting price-sensitive users. The success of Empower, a cheaper Uber alternative, proves users will switch for lower prices, eroding Uber's market power and making the stock unattractive.
1998 analog points to huge rally.
The current stock market environment resembles January 1998, right before a massive tech-driven rally that pushed the S&P 500 up 69.5% in one year. He speculates that a similar AI-fueled surge could take the index to 13,000, implying strong upside from current levels.
Up Next
This Thread Guy video, published June 16, 2026, features Thread Guy discussing SPCX, HYPE, AMC, UBER, SPY. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.