Name: Brian Belski Returns! | TCAF 249
Uploaded: 2026-07-03T13:00:12+00:00
Duration: 4573 s

Speakers

Brian Belski — Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets

Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Michael Batnick — Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Summary

Brian Belski returns to discuss his bullish equity outlook and the broadening market into the second half of the year. He expects increased volatility as earnings growth decelerates but still sees the S&P 500 reaching new highs. He favors Microsoft, Oracle, Google, SMID caps, regional banks, and Netflix while avoiding Meta and Charter Communications. Host Josh Brown adds a trade in CME Group.

Brian Belski remains bullish but warns of choppy second half as large-cap earnings growth decelerates.
He advocates the broadening out trade into small and mid-caps, value, and dividend growth.
Microsoft and Oracle are highlighted as unfairly punished tech stocks with strong fundamentals.
He prefers Alphabet over Meta due to Meta's unfocused AI capital allocation.
Small and mid-cap stocks offer superior earnings growth and will benefit from falling yields.
Specific picks include Glacier Bancorp, FNB Corporation, and Acuity Brands as secular winners.
Netflix is positioned to win the streaming wars through consolidation and content strength.
He calls Charter Communications the worst stock in the world, citing debt and secular decline.
Josh Brown shares a trade in CME Group, viewing exchanges as cheap and oversold.

Ideas

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 18:00

S&P 500 hits new highs before year-end.

The S&P 500 will reach all-time highs by year-end despite increased volatility. The earnings-driven market still supports a broadening out trade, and the secular bull market has years to run.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 19:04

Microsoft is unjustly punished, buy now.

Microsoft is down 23-24% year-to-date despite 34% ROE, $78 billion on the balance sheet, and 25% quarterly earnings growth. It is being unjustly punished and offers an attractive rebalancing opportunity.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 21:45

Oracle unfairly sold off on AI fears.

Oracle is being unjustly punished over AI-related fears and the OpenAI contract. The company was an early AI adopter and its stock's decline is overdone.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 23:09

Avoid Meta due to unfocused AI spending.

Meta's AI initiatives make no sense, and its capital allocation history is poor. The company is not a believer in its strategy and should be avoided in favor of Google.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 26:00

Google will outperform Meta going forward.

Google is the superior pick over Meta. Google is better positioned, more focused, and will benefit from the divergence between the two stocks, especially given Meta's unfocused AI spending and capital allocation blunders.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 29:36

Small and mid-caps will keep outperforming.

Small and mid-cap stocks offer significantly higher earnings growth (28% for small caps vs 23-24% for large caps) and attractive price-to-free-cash-flow. A broadening market and potential falling 10-year yields will further fuel SMID outperformance.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 32:01

Glacier Bancorp wins on local relationships.

Glacier Bancorp is winning business from large banks like Chase in growing regions such as Bozeman, Montana. Small banks benefit from relationship banking and consolidation as people and companies move to low-tax states.

Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 35:05

CME is cheap after being crushed.

CME Group and other exchanges have been crushed and are now cheap, presenting a buying opportunity. The sell-off on competition fears is overdone, and the business remains strong.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 35:16

Schwab looks cheap and interesting.

Charles Schwab looks interesting because the exchanges are cheap after recent sell-offs, offering value in the financial sector.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 60:14

Netflix wins streaming through consolidation.

Netflix is the long-term winner in streaming thanks to cash, content, and consolidation. The sell-off after the failed Warner bid was sentiment-driven, and the company will benefit from further industry consolidation.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 65:09

Avoid Charter, doomed by secular decline.

Charter Communications is the worst stock in the world. It has too much debt, faces secular decline from cord-cutting, has no PE rescue, and will eventually be obsoleted by satellite broadband like Starlink.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 68:52

Acuity cools data centers, AI winner.

Acuity manufactures ceiling tiles that keep wiring cool inside data centers, making it a direct thematic play on the AI data center buildout.

Brian Belski Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets 69:28

FNB rides migration to western Pennsylvania.

FNB Corporation is a regional bank in Western Pennsylvania that benefits from demographic migration and consolidation. It is a play on people moving to areas with lower taxes and costs.

Brian Belski Returns! | TCAF 249

Summary

Ideas

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