Too Early to Get Off the Wave | TCAF 248

Summary

Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese join Josh Brown and Michael Batnick to argue the bull market is not over. AI-driven semiconductor earnings, especially from Micron, are surging. Rotation out of mega-cap tech into small caps, industrials, and regional banks is seen as a bullish broadening. Carson Group sold some gold holdings as real yields rise, and they added managed futures as a diversifier. The team believes higher inflation and a wait-and-see Fed are not yet a threat to equities.

• Ryan Detrick says the bull market has more room to run, historically averaging 7 years vs. the current 3.5.
• Micron’s astronomical earnings growth (1440% forward earnings increase) justifies its stock surge and the broader semiconductor momentum.
• The rotation from the Mag 7 to small caps, industrials, and regional banks is happening near all-time highs, which the panel considers a very bullish signal.
• Global fund manager surveys show long semis as the most crowded trade ever, but earnings are backing it up.
• Carson Group tactically sold most of its gold allocation because rising real yields create a strong headwind for gold.
• Managed futures were added to portfolios as an inflation diversifier and have performed well in the current environment.
• Equity issuance is increasing and buybacks from mega-cap tech are declining, but the cash is being spent on real-economy investments like data centers.
• The Fed is expected to stay on hold; a gradual hike would not derail the market, but a rapid catch-up if inflation persists could become a problem.