I'm a bitcoin bull from a 'very, very long-term' perspective, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton
Speakers
Katie Stockton
— Founder, Fairlead Strategies
Summary
Katie Stockton discusses technicals across major assets, highlighting Bitcoin's long-term bullish setup near key support, the S&P 500's consolidation with a neutral bias, breakouts working in industrials, and momentum still favoring stocks like Micron. She also examines gold's corrective phase with a likely relief rally and crude oil's expected higher low near $68.
- Bitcoin testing support near 59,000 with long-term oversold conditions and a bullish multi-year view, but stabilization needed before adding.
- Breakouts remain effective; a fresh breakout in the industrials sector is seen as a bullish opportunity.
- Micron and similar semiconductor/AI names still show momentum, warranting continued ownership even as broader indices consolidate.
- Gold is in a corrective phase with short-term downside exhaustion, setting up a probable relief rally, though long-term momentum has weakened.
- Crude oil has support around $68 and long-term indicators suggest a higher low in the high $60s, with no return to pre-war levels expected.
- The S&P 500 carries a neutral near-term bias, with momentum fading and DeMark signals pointing to a range-bound environment.
- A rotation appears underway: equal-weight outperforming cap-weight and a head-and-shoulders in the Mag-7/S&P ratio suggesting mega-cap leadership may falter.
Ideas
Long-term Bitcoin bull, buy on dips.
She is a Bitcoin bull from a very, very long-term perspective. While Bitcoin is testing key support near 59,000 with risk of a break to the low 40s, she views volatility as opportunity. A long-term oversold condition is in place, and she looks for stabilization and downside exhaustion to add exposure. She is not convinced by four-year cycles but sees repeated drawdowns as chances to ride violent relief rallies.
Own Micron, momentum hasn't rolled over.
The 20-day moving average has not rolled over for Micron and that complex, signaling they are still working in the market. While the broader indices have rolled over and support consolidation, she wants to own what is working, such as Micron and related semiconductor/AI names, even if top-down hedged.
Gold relief rally possible after exhaustion.
Gold is in a corrective phase but shows signs of short-term downside exhaustion, though not long-term. A relief rally that can be taken advantage of is likely, while the next leg for gold is eventually higher. The loss of long-term upside momentum suggests range-bound or a downward channel, but a tactical long opportunity exists on a relief rally.
Crude oil higher low near $68.
Crude oil has taken out key support levels but has additional support around $68 per barrel based on the cloud model. Oversold readings are present, and long-term indicators suggest a higher low in the high $60s. No oversold buy signal has triggered yet, but the expectation is for crude to stabilize and bounce, not return to pre-war levels.
