45 Million Rich Households | AS 475

Summary

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss the stock market's resilience amid a semiconductor selloff, the healthy pullback in momentum stocks, widespread bearishness on bonds and why bonds may now be attractive, strong consumer spending data from American Express, and a bullish setup for IMAX. They also cover private market valuations, South Korean trading leverage, and the great wealth transfer. The overarching theme is that cracks beneath the surface are a sign of a healthy bull market rather than a top.

• S&P 500 holds near highs despite leadership stock crashes, signaling underlying market strength.
• Momentum factor (MTUM) pullback from stretched levels makes the trend more sustainable.
• Consensus is bearish on bonds due to fiscal worries, but higher yields now offer a margin of safety, with the worst likely behind.
• American Express sees 40% Gen Z spending growth and dominates young customer acquisition.
• IMAX benefits from blockbuster demand (The Odyssey) and could be an acquisition target.
• Consumer spending remains resilient, driven by fixed-rate mortgage holders.
• Private market IPOs continue to underperform public markets.
• Netflix still dominates streaming hours, but viewer growth is slow and the stock is down heavily.