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20:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
Wealthion
1d
GDXJ FLIP
URA
GLD
SOIL 1ST
SIL
▾
HIGH
Avoid speculative junior mining stock picking.
Wellum warns that picking individual junior mining companies is tough, very difficult, and highly speculative. He argues most investors are better served by knowing their circle of competence and using ETFs or professional management rather than trying to pick off junior miners.
GDXJ AVOID
Uranium favored for nuclear energy.
Wellum favors uranium as a core commodity exposure because of its role in energy and nuclear power.
URA LONG
Gold favored as monetary substitute.
Wellum favors gold as a monetary substitute and monetary asset, making it one of the core commodity exposures he focuses on.
GLD LONG
Potash favored for farming nutrients.
In the agricultural area, Wellum focuses on potash and nutrients used in farming as core commodity exposures.
SOIL LONG
Prefer elite miners and royalty companies.
Wellum says his group typically buys elite mining companies and mining royalty companies because they are careful value investors and long-term compounders, and they generally avoid smaller mining companies.
SIL LONG
GDX LONG
Copper favored for predictable supply/demand.
Wellum says his group focuses on copper among key commodity exposures because copper is more predictable than many other commodities.
COPPER LONG
Silver benefits from EV/data center demand.
Wellum favors silver because it is important for electric vehicles, data centers, and electrical conductivity.
SILVER LONG
Rare earth opportunities exist but cyclical.
Wellum sees opportunities in rare earths for knowledgeable investors, but says they are cyclical because there is no shortage. China has dominated supply, and as western development and processing accelerate, prices are likely to become more moderate, making opportunities come and go.
REMX WATCH
Prefer Sprott rare earth ETF over juniors.
For rare earth exposure, Wellum argues a Sprott rare earth ETF is a more sane way for retail investors to participate than picking junior miners because professional management selects better financed companies with good locations and political risk profiles.
REXC LONG
Sprott earns fees across commodity ETFs.
Wellum owns Sprott Inc. and views it as one of the best commodity plays because it is the parent company of commodity ETFs and earns fee-based revenue across the entire commodity spectrum.
SII LONG
Watching Honey Badger's Prairie Creek restart.
Wellum is watching Honey Badger's Prairie Creek mine because it has historically outlined silver, lead, zinc, germanium, and tungsten resources, and it has local and government support. However, it requires infrastructure such as a highway and must demonstrate cost-effective extraction, so it is not yet in portfolios.
Honey Badger Silver WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
Wealthion
2d
Front-end US yield curve
US3Y
10-Year Treasury Note
30-year Treasury bond
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Front-end Treasuries benefit as Fed cuts.
The Fed's next move is likely a cut, not a hike, because the economy is growing below potential and inflation is cooling. The front end of the Treasury curve is still priced for at least one more hike; Rosenberg says those hike odds will come out, making the two-year and three-year notes very good places to be.
Front-end US yield curve LONG
US3Y LONG
US2Y LONG
Long-end Treasuries face term premium pressure.
The rise in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields has been driven by term premium and uncertainty—fiscal, policy and inflation uncertainty—rather than by rising inflation expectations. That makes long-end bonds unattractive and sticky because risk premium may keep yields elevated even if inflation expectations keep falling.
10-Year Treasury Note AVOID
30-year Treasury bond AVOID
War-driven energy earnings are skyrocketing.
Energy companies are earning outsized profits because of ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has made energy stocks a strong earnings pocket even as much of the rest of the economy is weak.
XLE LONG
S&P earnings strength is narrowly concentrated.
S&P 500 earnings strength is misleading because it is heavily driven by AI and energy; excluding AI and energy, corporate profits are running under 5% year-over-year. Corporate income share is at an all-time high and labor income share at an all-time low, leaving the market and economy extremely bifurcated and fragile.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Aug 19
Aug 19
Wealthion
3d
GLD
UUP 1ST
TLT 1ST
GDX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own gold to protect purchasing power.
Gold has just surpassed its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak for the first time in 45 years, central banks doubled gold purchases and began repatriating it after Western sanctions on Russian reserves in 2022, and the old crisis bid for dollars and Treasuries is breaking down. Williams argues investors should stop fixating on 20% price corrections and own gold as protection against currency debasement and loss of purchasing power, holding liquid reserves in gold rather than fiat cash.
GLD LONG
Avoid fiat cash as dollar debases.
Fiat currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, are structurally losing purchasing power: the dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power over 50 years, and there is no credible plan to stop debt-funded spending without inflating it away. Williams says the dollar, pound, yen, or euro held as savings will continue to get worse, so investors should avoid holding cash in these currencies.
UUP AVOID
Treasuries' crisis hedge is breaking down.
The old crisis reaction function of reflexively buying dollars and Treasuries is breaking down. After central bank behavior changed in 2022, markets have seen stocks down and bonds down while gold rose, so investors should not rely on Treasuries as the automatic crisis hedge they once were.
TLT AVOID
Gold miners offer leveraged gold upside.
Gold mining companies give investors leverage to the gold price and, once the cycle gets going, the right gold miners can massively juice returns. Williams views them as a way to make money for those willing to do due diligence, but not as a way to preserve purchasing power or sleep at night.
GDX LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 18
Aug 18
Wealthion
4d
GLD
ITA 1ST
BNO
WTI
USD 1ST
▾
HIGH
US defeat bullish gold, bearish dollar.
David Woo agrees with the view that a US strategic defeat against Iran would be very bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold, saying it is difficult to disagree with that trade.
GLD LONG
USD SHORT
Defense stocks doing well on rearmament.
Defense stocks have been recovering and he thinks defense could do well over the next couple of months because the US is running low on ammunition, the deputy secretary of defense ordered major contractors to ramp production within 21 days, implying more government defense spending. Rheinmetall, the premier European defense contractor, has also been recovering.
ITA LONG
Rheinmetall LONG
Long oil as geopolitical escalation builds.
David Woo is long oil because Iran has an incentive to push Brent toward $100-$120 by disrupting Red Sea tanker traffic through the Houthis, the Strait of Hormuz has very little traffic, and any US move to hit Chinese banks or refiners over Iranian oil would be bullish for oil. He finds it difficult to see how the confrontation ends.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
European natural gas supported by supply squeeze.
European natural gas prices rose 10% last week and should remain supported because drought is shutting nuclear reactors, hydro generation is impaired, storage is at decade lows before winter, and Russia-Ukraine energy risk remains unresolved.
UNG LONG
Bonds cheap as growth slows.
David Woo thinks bonds are very cheap because he does not see inflation and growth is actually slowing, so he does not believe the Fed will be hiking rates. He likes being long bonds, especially looking at five-year yields.
TLT LONG
Europe faces energy and political risk.
David Woo is very negative on European assets in the short term because European natural gas prices are rising, energy security is fragile, French election risk is building, and there is a risk of an EU-China trade war this fall.
VGK AVOID
Short AI at better levels.
His fundamental view is that he wants to short AI and the broader stock market, though he is not short at this moment and is looking for better levels to enter.
AIQ SHORT
Oil shock could sink US stocks.
A renewed Iran escalation and a US-China confrontation over Iranian oil would be bearish for the stock market, potentially pushing US stocks down around 10% as oil spikes. The market is leaning toward an offramp and may be complacent about escalation risk.
SPY SHORT
Short yen, intervention won't save it.
He has been short the Japanese yen over the last two weeks, selling into Japanese intervention, and believes the yen is doomed. He sees Japanese intervention as a selling opportunity.
FXY SHORT
HIGH
20:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
Wealthion
5d
XLY 1ST
KIE 1ST
CIBR
XLF
GLD
▾
HIGH
Boomers spend on healthcare and travel.
Retiring baby boomers are continuing to spend rather than retrenching, particularly on healthcare, dining and travel. Healthcare is booming with strong employment gains, leisure and hospitality are strong, and airlines are doing extremely well as baby boomers adopt a YOLO spend-it-while-you-can attitude.
XLY LONG
Bet on companies using AI productively.
The larger AI opportunity is betting on companies that use AI to improve productivity and profits, not just the AI infrastructure trade. Insurance companies are using AI to cut costs; software and especially cybersecurity should benefit because AI increases cyber threats; financials and fintech are spending heavily to improve productivity; and healthcare AI can improve recordkeeping and diagnosis.
KIE LONG
CIBR LONG
XLF LONG
XLV LONG
Gold merits small portfolio allocation.
He has never been a gold bug, but now believes gold may have a place as roughly 5-10% of a portfolio, implying a small strategic allocation.
GLD LONG
Bonds and munis offer attractive income.
On a shorter-term basis, bonds yielding around 4.5% are pretty good, and municipal bonds are very good for many investors, suggesting a role for fixed income in portfolios.
MUB LONG
Emerging markets gain from growing consumers.
Investors should consider an emerging markets fund because emerging markets are developing, with expanding middle classes and more consumers, offering exposure beyond the US.
EEM LONG
US bull market is earnings-driven.
The widely anticipated recession has not arrived and the US economy is performing well. The stock market is making new highs, the earnings picture is solid, and stocks are attractive if you believe the earnings; this is an earnings-led bull market rather than a valuation-led melt-up, with companies repeatedly beating expectations and profit margins holding up.
SPY LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
Wealthion
8d
GLD
DBC
COPPER
SILVER
REMX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold and silver protect against unsustainability.
The debasement trade remains intact: massive debt, large deficits, unfunded liabilities, and central banks making gold their largest reserve asset over the US dollar. Jonathan expects the gold and silver trade to come back into vogue as investors seek collateral and purchasing power protection.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Underinvestment and shortages make commodities attractive.
Years of underinvestment in commodities are colliding with rising demand from digitization, data centers, robotics, and reshoring. The world is demanding more metals and minerals than it produces, while Western economies are too dependent on China for critical resources. This supply-demand imbalance, plus debt and debasement concerns, creates a broad opportunity in the commodity space.
DBC LONG
Copper shortage keeps prices near record highs.
Copper is in a supply-demand imbalance. Even when gold and silver pulled back, copper barely corrected and remains near record highs because of shortages, supported by demand from electrification, data centers, robotics, and underinvestment.
COPPER LONG
Reshoring supports critical minerals and rare earths.
Deglobalization and national security are forcing the US and allies to reshore mining and processing of rare earths and critical minerals because the West is dangerously dependent on China. Military, technology, and industrial demand requires secure supplies, supporting the sector.
REMX LONG
Miners lag their record cash flow.
Precious metals miners are generating record margins and free cash flow but their stocks still price gold as if it were well below current levels. For example, Agnico Eagle's margin is running over $3,000 an ounce, yet the group trades at a discount to spot; the gap between earnings power and valuations is an opportunity.
Gold and silver mining equities LONG
AEM LONG
FNV LONG
WPM LONG
Dexterra benefits from reshoring and data centers.
Dexterra is a Canadian logistics and facilities management company benefiting from reshoring and data center build-outs, with roughly 10% US organic growth, a 9% free cash flow yield, long-term contracts, high switching costs, and Fairfax Financial as a disciplined 50% owner. Jonathan likes the company and is doing more work, though RockLinc does not own it yet.
DXT.TO WATCH
AI capex boom carries dangerous uncertainty.
The AI capex boom is driven by FOMO and uncertainty: hyperscalers are spending a trillion-plus dollars without clear returns, and it is impossible to know profitability years ahead. Jonathan warns of fallout and bankruptcies and says investors should be careful, making the AI and hyperscaler capex complex risky.
AI data center and hyperscaler capex AVOID
Apple's AI capital discipline is wise.
Apple has done well because it takes a wait-and-see approach to AI, participating indirectly without spending the massive sums the hyperscalers are spending. This capital discipline is a key edge while AI returns remain uncertain.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
20:24
Aug 13
Aug 13
Wealthion
9d
WTI
▾
HIGH
Crude supply shock supports higher oil
Berman argues crude oil is underpricing a severe upstream supply shock: Persian Gulf production is shut in by roughly 10 million barrels per day, at its low down 15 million, a larger supply hit than COVID's ~11 million barrel per day decline. Hormuz flows are unlikely to normalize quickly, and the futures curve has shifted into steep backwardation with high near-term prices, which he reads as a scarcity signal. He expects upward pressure on crude and says he would take the long side against those shorting oil on peace-deal optimism.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Wealthion
10d
DBC
REMX 1ST
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Commodity cycle looks mature, speculative.
The commodity cycle appears mature: M&A has already occurred and speculative 'crazy' projects are beginning to appear, which is a late-cycle warning sign even though he cannot say how long the cycle will last.
DBC WATCH
Government funding supports critical minerals.
Governments in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Europe are showing much more interest in supporting critical metals/minerals, and public-sector money is flowing into private projects, which he views as a big encouragement for the sector.
REMX LONG
Copper has structural supply-demand gap.
Copper demand out to 2050 exceeds what current and imminent supply can deliver, creating a large structural supply gap; he is a huge copper bull from both demand and price perspectives, and he views aluminum substitution as inadequate because copper is a superior metal.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 11
Aug 11
Wealthion
11d
SPY
TLT
FXY
▾
HIGH
Bullish on US equities: resilient economy, strong consumer
The US economy has been remarkably resilient through numerous stress tests and will continue to grow through the end of the decade without a recession, supported by a 'bulletproof' consumer (wealthy baby boomers spending retirement assets), an AI capital spending boom, and government spending. Earnings will continue surprising to the upside, driving the stock market higher.
SPY LONG
Watch US long-term Treasuries for yield revolt
Massive government debt and ongoing deficits risk a revolt by 'bond vigilantes' who could push up long-term bond yields, as the Fed and Treasury may not maintain order. Even if the Fed tries to lower short rates, long-end yields could spike, potentially weakening the economy.
TLT WATCH
Watch Japanese yen for renewed currency crisis
Japan needs to raise interest rates substantially to align with global rates; otherwise, the yen currency crisis may not be over, posing a risk that all investors should monitor. The Bank of Japan's short-term rate near 1% is too low, and continued yen weakness could force Japanese holders of US debt to sell.
FXY WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Aug 10
Aug 10
Wealthion
12d
New York City residential real estate
California residential real estate
▾
MED
NY/CA real estate faces growing tax headwinds.
Real estate in high-tax states like New York and California is under attack from new taxes. New York already enacted an annual pied-a-terre tax on non-primary residences, and California has a proposed wealth tax that would implicitly tax unrealized property gains. These policies make owning real estate in these jurisdictions increasingly unattractive and risk driving out wealthy owners.
New York City residential real estate AVOID
California residential real estate AVOID
MED
20:00
Aug 06
Aug 06
Wealthion
16d
IEF
SPY 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Avoid bonds as yields rise further.
Bond yields have risen significantly and will keep going up due to persistent inflation (money supply growing above the 2% target range), Trump's tariffs, the US-Iran war, and a widening fiscal deficit. Higher yields mean lower bond prices, making bonds an unattractive investment. The bond vigilantes are back and the bond market will drive the repricing.
IEF AVOID
Stock market bubble set to pop.
The US stock market is in a bubble by any measure, and history shows that rising interest rates are usually the trigger that pops bubbles. With bond yields climbing and the bond vigilantes active, the stock market is highly vulnerable.
SPY AVOID
Oil price spike coming as inventories deplete.
Crude oil inventories, including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (lowest since 1983) and private stocks, have been heavily drawn down to cushion supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea closures. Once inventories run out, the market will shift from a deficit to a shortage, forcing a sharp price spike and demand destruction.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
Wealthion
17d
GDX 1ST
GLD
COPPER FLIP
URA FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid gold and silver stocks now.
Gold and silver mining stocks are not a buy right now. Recent price patterns look alarmingly similar to the peaks of 2011 and possibly 1980, suggesting a correction or consolidation ahead. He has sold all his gold and silver stock positions and advises against chasing the current rally, favoring patience over urgency even for long-term bulls.
GDX AVOID
Accumulate gold bullion long-term.
Physical gold bullion remains a long-term accumulation asset regardless of short-term price fluctuations. Unlike the stocks, bullion's role as a hedge that works offline and its sustained central bank buying support a strategy of continuous accumulation on weakness, rather than timing the market.
GLD LONG
Avoid copper and uranium at these prices.
Copper and uranium are not buy-low opportunities at current levels. Copper remains over $6/pound, still near all-time nominal highs after a small retreat. Uranium, even after pulling back from recent highs to $85-95/pound, is many times above its $18/pound low of a few years ago. The disciplined approach demands waiting for genuinely low prices.
COPPER AVOID
URA AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
Wealthion
18d
Short-term U.S. Treasuries
GLD
WTI 1ST
XLE
Value stocks
▾
HIGH
Hide in short-term Treasuries.
In an environment of potential rate hikes, market stress, and an unwinding AI bubble, hiding out in short-term U.S. Treasury securities is a prudent strategy. Warren Buffett holds $400 billion in short-term Treasuries, and following his lead is probably not a terrible idea to earn yield while protecting capital.
Short-term U.S. Treasuries LONG
Gold will rally after consolidation.
Gold got ahead of itself earlier this year but has now corrected back close to fair value relative to real interest rates. He has added back to his position because real rates will eventually fall when the Fed makes a dovish pivot. The gold bull market is in a consolidation phase that typically precedes another strong move higher.
GLD LONG
Oil and energy sector are undervalued.
The oil price is near an all-time low relative to the broader commodity complex and relative to gold and silver. Fundamental factors, geopolitical shifts, deglobalization, and inflationary dynamics all support higher oil prices. Oil is poised to move steadily higher toward an intrinsic value of over $100 per barrel, making the energy sector the most attractive in the stock market.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Rotate into value stocks.
The momentum factor has suffered a historic break after an unprecedented surge, similar to the end of the dot-com bubble. This is driving a rotation into value stocks, which historically serve as a safe haven during such shifts. Value is starting to do really well, and defensive sectors are leading.
Value stocks LONG
AI bubble is bursting.
The AI bubble is in its final blowoff and the beginning of the end. Speculative levered capital from Korean retail traders, crypto bros, and momentum hedge funds that drove AI hardware stocks is now impaired. Hyperscaler earnings quality has deteriorated dramatically with negative free cash flow, rising depreciation charges, and questionable mark-ups. The circular financing that supported the AI buildout may break when loss-making AI startups like Anthropic and OpenAI struggle to raise public capital.
AI and Semiconductor Equities AVOID
Watch 10-year yield breaking higher.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is the most important chart in the world as the risk-free rate underpinning all assets. A breakout to new highs would signal a bond market vote of no confidence in the Fed's inflation fight, creating significant problems for equities and the financing of the AI buildout. He is watching this yield closely as the key warning signal.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Aug 03
Aug 03
Wealthion
19d
Non-AI S&P 500 stocks (the other 459 stocks)
AI 1ST
▾
MED
Non-AI stocks are safer, outperforming YTD.
Non-AI stocks (the other 459 companies in the S&P 500) have outperformed AI stocks year-to-date and offer a more predictable, 'sleep-at-night' profile. They are currently moving independently and even rose on a day when the overall market fell on economic worries. For investors prioritizing stability and lower volatility, non-AI stocks are the better choice.
Non-AI S&P 500 stocks (the other 459 stocks) LONG
AI stocks offer high return with volatility.
Every technology eventually ends in a bubble, and AI will be no different. However, the bubble is likely still a couple of years away because the current narrative is one of compute constraint and under-usage by knowledge workers. The key risk that could accelerate the bubble and cause a bust is a sudden technological advance (from China or the U.S.) that makes existing data-center capacity massively overbuilt. This is a development worth monitoring as it would trigger the eventual AI overcapacity and bubble peak.
AI LONG
MED
20:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
Wealthion
22d
TLT 1ST
XLE 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bonds only a trade, not core holding.
Massive US deficits at 6-7% create an implicit yield cap and make bonds unattractive as a core portfolio holding. They can only be a short-term trade, not a long-term anchor, as real yields are pressured and fiscal sustainability is in doubt.
TLT AVOID
Energy stocks undervalued; higher oil ahead.
The energy sector is underinvested globally, geopolitical tensions add a premium, and long-term oil prices are poised to rise. The portfolio holds energy as a ‘paid to wait’ position, expecting domestic producers to rerate higher over time.
XLE LONG
Gold bullish on deficits and geopolitics.
Gold benefits from chronic money printing, large US deficits, a fracturing world order, and G7 fiscal imbalances. Despite near-term pressure from rising real rates, the long-term case remains strong. The portfolio maintains gold exposure for capital protection.
GLD LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 29
Jul 29
Wealthion
24d
XLP 1ST
KRE
XLK 1ST
XLC 1ST
XLI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid consumer sectors on margin pressure
Consumer companies face margin pressure from tariffs, higher energy prices, and the K-shaped economy, so he is underweight Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary until Fed policy rebalances conditions for households.
XLP AVOID
XLY AVOID
Regional banks cheap, poised for gains
Regional banks have performed well this year but still look cheap; investors do not fully appreciate how much the deregulation regime and yield curve steepening will improve their profitability.
KRE LONG
AI capex peak drives tech underweight
AI capital spending growth is likely to slow; capex as a percent of cash flow for the big spenders reached 90%, similar to prior peaks in telecom (2000) and energy (2014-15). After reporting higher capex, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon saw stock price declines, signaling market skepticism. This rate-of-change slowdown leads him to underweight the Technology sector (25% vs. 37% index) and Communication Services (5% vs. 10%).
XLK AVOID
XLC AVOID
Manufacturing renaissance lifts industrials, energy, materials
Believes a manufacturing renaissance and broad capital investment cycle beyond AI is coming, leading him to overweight industrials, energy, and materials.
XLI LONG
XLE LONG
XLB LONG
Walmart overvalued with margin pressure
Walmart trades at a high multiple (~30x) while earnings grow only ~5%, with margins under pressure from tariffs and energy costs, making it an expensive defensive trade.
WMT AVOID
Rising real rates may trigger 10% correction
Rising real rates could tighten financial conditions and trigger a typical midterm-year 10% S&P 500 drawdown, so he holds a decent cash position.
SPY WATCH
Financials benefit from Warsh Fed plan
Kevin Warsh's likely Fed plan to cut the policy rate, unwind long-term securities holdings, and deregulate banks will steepen the yield curve and create a good environment for the banking sector, so he is overweight financials.
XLF LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 28
Jul 28
Wealthion
25d
IEF
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
10-year Treasury yield may hit 5.5%
If the Fed fails to raise rates, long-dated Treasury yields will keep climbing because the bond market needs the Fed to panic about inflation before yields peak. With core inflation still above 3%, a 57-year low in jobless claims, and the Fed not acting, the 10-year yield could reach 5.5%. The 30-year yield is already above 5.10% and could go higher. A rate hike would show panic and calm yields, but without it, bond bears remain in control.
IEF SHORT
TLT SHORT
HIGH
20:00
Jul 27
Jul 27
Wealthion
26d
GOOGL 1ST
AMZN 1ST
MSFT 1ST
GAS
▾
HIGH
Mega-cap AI spend will pay off.
Mega-cap tech companies (Meg 7 names like Amazon, Microsoft, Google) have shifted from returning free cash flow to heavy AI infrastructure spending, causing a near-term 'moment of doubt' and pause in sentiment. However, these companies have done the calculations and believe the CapEx will be 'money good', implying long-term upside once the payoff materializes.
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
MSFT LONG
US natural gas fuels AI infrastructure.
AI data center buildout faces near-term energy bottlenecks. While nuclear and fusion are future solutions, they take too long. US natural gas is abundant, available now, and will be the primary fuel to power the AI infrastructure expansion.
GAS LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 24
Jul 24
Wealthion
29d
SPY
GDX 1ST
CASH 1ST
GLD
XLRE 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 is concentrated AI bet.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index with 40% in 10 stocks, creating a highly correlated bet on AI. This concentration combined with elevated valuations means investors are not truly diversified, and when the AI trade corrects there will be significant pain.
SPY AVOID
Scarce real assets hedge AI concentration.
Scarce real assets—gold miners, infrastructure, real estate, and agriculture—benefit from inflation and scarcity, are not overpriced like AI names, and provide ballast and diversification away from the concentrated S&P 500.
GDX LONG
XLRE LONG
PAVE LONG
DBA LONG
Cash provides ballast and optionality.
Cash provides portfolio ballast and creates option value when market excesses crack, serving as a safe, liquid alternative to overvalued and concentrated equities.
CASH LONG
Gold as dollar proxy and insurance.
Gold is a scarce monetary asset, a proxy for the dollar, and an insurance policy against US fiscal insolvency, deficits, and inflation. Central banks are buying, and the recent doubling of gold prices signals that rational and momentum flows are joining. Gold provides ballast and option value when other assets crack.
GLD LONG
Moat companies Visa and railroads are scarce.
Companies outside the S&P 500 top 10 with strong competitive moats, like Visa and railroads, are hard to replace, real-economy, and not threatened by AI. They offer diversification from AI concentration and are valued on solid free-cash-flow metrics.
V LONG
IYT LONG
HIGH
12:00
Jul 24
Jul 24
Wealthion
29d
MAG7 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid AI-building Magnificent Seven stocks
The companies building AI, like the Magnificent Seven, are a poor investment because insiders are selling, equity supply is surging, and history shows transformational technologies often become overbuilt and unprofitable. Google’s first secondary since IPO and the massive SpaceX unlock signal that smart money is exiting, and the more convinced we are of AI’s revolutionary impact, the more certain the overcapacity and poor returns.
MAG7 AVOID
Avoid AI-related semiconductor stocks
Semiconductor and memory stocks have seen extreme speculation with a 10-sigma rally, followed by a rapid 30% correction, yet they remain part of the AI overcapacity story. As with the Mag 7, the build-out of AI hardware will lead to overcapacity and no one will make money, so investors should not bother with these stocks.
SMH AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
Wealthion
1mo
RTY 1ST
MAG7
XLP 1ST
XLRE 1ST
Tokyo Stock Exchange (e.g., Nikkei 225)
▾
HIGH
Broad earnings support US small caps.
Earnings power is now broad across large, mid, and small caps, not just the Mag 7. With the Fed cutting rates, GDP expanding, and earnings estimates rising, the conditions are in place for a sustained rotation into US small caps. Small caps have already been leading for 18 months, and pullbacks should be used to add exposure.
RTY LONG
Mag 7 valuation has become attractive.
The Magnificent Seven have gone from being over-owned to having bad news largely priced in. Forward multiples are well below 5- and 10-year medians, and the PEG ratio is about one. If anything goes right, these stocks will rally. He recently flipped from underweight to a buy call on the Mag 7.
MAG7 LONG
Consumer staples offer little upside.
There is not much to get excited about in consumer staples; the sector is defensive and lacks compelling upside.
XLP AVOID
Real estate is too rate-sensitive.
Public real estate is not exciting because it is primarily rate-sensitive rather than offering strong standalone growth.
XLRE AVOID
Japanese corporate reforms boost equities.
Japan has undergone structural changes, with companies becoming more growth-oriented, shareholder-friendly, and focused on stakeholders. This has made Japan an attractive market for years and remains a constructive call.
Tokyo Stock Exchange (e.g., Nikkei 225) LONG
Broad earnings support emerging markets.
Earnings power is broadening globally, and emerging market equities are a specific place to put money to work alongside US small caps. No further country-level detail, but EM is part of the broadening call.
EEM LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
Wealthion
1mo
WTI 1ST
GSG 1ST
DBC 1ST
ARGT 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI boom increases oil demand structurally.
Oil is the world's largest single commodity, and the speaker is very bullish on how the AI boom will increase demand for oil. AI-driven logistics in the oil and gas supply chain are already improving efficiency, but the fundamental importance of oil to commerce ensures sustained demand. If oil stops flowing, all commerce stops, underscoring its critical role.
WTI LONG
Commodity stocks are undervalued with rotation ahead.
Commodity equities are at record low valuations relative to the market. Consolidation in mining and oil and gas sectors will boost stock prices first, followed by a rotation into commodity stocks in single-digit years as it becomes painfully obvious that supply is inadequate even for modest growth. Governments will eventually relax regulatory impediments, and capital flows will follow.
GSG LONG
Commodities are entering a long-term bull market.
A long-run commodities bull market is coming, driven by surging energy demand from AI, insufficient growth in production capacity for oil and metals, and eventual resolution of major geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, Iran). The boom will be capped by technological efficiency and increased global competition, keeping inflation manageable.
DBC LONG
Argentina is a growing energy and minerals play.
Argentina is emerging as a major player in oil, gas, and minerals, with investments already underway. Political reforms under President Milei are likely sustainable and will deliver low inflation and GDP growth, creating a stable and attractive environment for energy and mineral resource development.
ARGT LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
Wealthion
1mo
SILVER 1ST
COPPER 1ST
SLX 1ST
▾
MED
AI infrastructure boosts industrial metals demand.
The massive buildout of AI infrastructure, robotics, and data centers will drive growing demand for industrial metals, including copper, silver, and steel.
SILVER LONG
COPPER LONG
SLX LONG
MED
20:00
Jul 16
Jul 16
Wealthion
1mo
SPY 1ST
SILVER
GDX
GLD
SIL
▾
HIGH
US stocks most overvalued since 1927
The US stock market is more overvalued today than at any point in the last 150 years, except for 1927. With extreme valuations, elevated leverage, and mounting fiscal pressures, the likelihood of a severe market reckoning is very high, and he expects significant downside ahead.
SPY AVOID
Gold and silver bottoming; macro drivers align
Gold and silver have likely found a bottom despite recent weakness, supported by stubborn price action, smart money buying (Chinese central bank, industrial silver users), and the long-term drivers of massive government deficits, central bank money supply expansion, and low real interest rates. He expects the "steering currents" that speculators watch—the dollar's short-term strength and stable interest rate expectations—to reverse and become supportive, triggering a flow of funds from overvalued stocks and bonds into the relatively tiny precious metals market.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Miners profitable, cheap, with M&A catalysts
Gold and silver mining companies are highly profitable, with wide margins between costs and revenues, and are behaving like advanced growth stocks by buying back shares and paying down debt. He expects increasing merger and acquisition activity as the sector unfolds, making miners an attractive expression of the precious metals bull thesis.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 15
Jul 15
Wealthion
1mo
WDC
MU
STX 1ST
XLP
KHC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory chip margins and cycle will crush.
Memory and storage semiconductor stocks are highly cyclical commodity businesses. Micron's 85% gross margins are unsustainable, and Chinese competitors like CXMT and YMTC are aggressively targeting market share over profit, which will compress margins. Historically, low P/E ratios on cyclicals signal peak earnings, and the DRAM pricing cycle will reverse, crushing earnings for Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate.
WDC AVOID
MU AVOID
STX AVOID
Consumer staples are undervalued and loved.
Consumer staple stocks have been thrown out, are now dirt cheap with generous dividend yields, and are seeing business stabilization. Kraft Heinz, with a new CEO and only one analyst buy rating, is a contrarian play. PepsiCo's international business is growing despite US consumer challenges. The sector offers attractive value and income as investors seek defensive areas.
XLP LONG
KHC LONG
PEP LONG
Dollar rally is weak, sell it.
The US dollar has barely rallied despite a hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations, indicating underlying weakness. The dollar is a sell because the rally will roll over, especially as real rate headwinds fade and structural debt concerns weigh.
USD SHORT
ECB rate normalization helps European banks.
European banks are hitting 52-week highs because the ECB has raised rates, moving them further away from the negative-rate environment that previously crushed profitability, allowing them to earn better interest income and spreads.
EUFN LONG
AI capex bubble hit hyperscalers.
The real AI bubble is in the massive capital expenditure by hyperscalers, not the technology itself. Companies like Oracle and Meta are spending unsustainable proportions of revenue on capex, deteriorating their cash flows, and markets have begun to punish these spenders.
ORCL AVOID
META AVOID
Steep yield curve lifts Japanese banks.
Japanese banks are in a sustained rally because the steep yield curve—with the BOJ slowly raising short-term rates to only 1% while long-term yields rise—is expanding net interest margins and profitability.
DXJ LONG
US banks rally on spreads and rotation.
US banks are rallying, helped by robust capital markets activity, a widening yield spread that boosts lending margins, and investor rotation away from over-owned hyperscalers and semiconductors.
KBE LONG
Gold pullback is a buying opportunity.
Gold's pullback is driven by temporarily rising real rates and a modest dollar bounce, but the real rate move will end, inflation will catch up to nominal rates, and the dollar rally will roll over. Gold is a buy on this pullback after a straight-line advance that needed a rest.
GLD LONG
Yen too cheap, set to strengthen.
The Japanese yen is extremely undervalued at 162 per dollar, and the BOJ will eventually be forced to raise rates more aggressively, triggering repatriation of Japan's vast overseas assets. This will strengthen the yen as the dollar/yen move runs its course.
FXY LONG
Excess debt supply drives yields up.
Long-term US Treasury yields are rising not because of a strong economy or accelerating inflation, but because global markets are choking on excess government debt supply for the first time in decades. Debts and deficits now matter, structurally pushing real yields higher.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
20:00
Jul 14
Jul 14
Wealthion
1mo
AIQ 1ST
SMH 1ST
INTC 1ST
FXI 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI stocks justified by strong earnings.
AI stocks overall are not overvalued because current corporate earnings justify equity values and reasonable expectations about future earnings support those valuations.
AIQ LONG
Government champion policy hurts US semiconductors.
Government crowning Intel as a national champion will force the company to prioritize government happiness over business efficiency, impairing its ability to make hard decisions like closing factories or laying off workers, and ultimately harming the competitiveness of the entire US semiconductor sector.
SMH AVOID
Intel hurt by government national champion role.
Intel, as the designated national champion, must satisfy the government in addition to shareholders, which will distort decision-making and lead to underperformance; the government is likely to throw good money after bad, making Intel an unattractive investment.
INTC AVOID
US economy will outperform China's.
The US economy will vastly outperform China's over a 30-year horizon because China suffers from a severely unbalanced economy overly reliant on investment and exports, a demographic crisis from the one-child policy, and failed industrial policies like a hollow real-estate sector and an uncompetitive aircraft industry.
FXI AVOID
XLE LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 13
Jul 13
Wealthion
1mo
Short-term bonds (0-4 years)
US long-term bonds
US corporate bonds
US high-yield bonds
▾
HIGH
Avoid long bonds, favor short-term bonds.
Rising rates are likely due to the Fed's focus on inflation, massive fiscal deficits, and an unsustainable debt load; long-term bonds are precarious because rates are more likely to go higher than lower. Investors should stick to short-term bonds (four years or less) for safety.
Short-term bonds (0-4 years) LONG
US long-term bonds AVOID
Avoid corporate and junk bonds now.
Credit spreads on corporate and high-yield bonds are at extremely low levels, offering virtually no compensation for taking additional risk. This complacency makes those bonds very nervous and unattractive until spreads widen to more reasonable levels.
US corporate bonds AVOID
US high-yield bonds AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Jul 10
Jul 10
Wealthion
1mo
GLD 1ST
URA
WTI
GDX
GLTR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold re-enters monetary system as apex predator.
Gold has been removed from the monetary system since 1971, allowing financial innovation to degrade the system. As the 'deer' have overgrazed, the reintroduction of gold as an apex predator will stabilize the system and drive a massive revaluation of gold as it re-enters the monetary ecosystem.
GLD LONG
Uranium term price keeps rising on supply gap.
The uranium industry needs 11 new Cigar Lake-sized mines in the next 15 years, and none have been found yet. While spot price volatility misleads, the long-term contract price has steadily risen for years and will continue to do so as the daunting supply shortfall becomes increasingly acute.
URA LONG
Oil is the contrarian buy-low opportunity.
Unlike gold, silver, copper, and uranium which are still well above their historic lows, oil has completed a full round trip since the war and is therefore starting to look more interesting for a disciplined 'buy low' investor.
WTI LONG
Under-owned precious metals could quadruple demand.
For four decades, the median market share of precious metals and precious metals related investments in US portfolios was 2%. Today it is only 0.5%. A return to the mean would create four times the current demand, implying huge upside for precious metals and mining equities as the sector is severely under-owned.
GDX LONG
GLTR LONG
Silver deficit and less shorting drive prices up.
The silver market has been in a physical deficit for six years, requiring 10 new First Majestic-scale mines to fill it, which is impossible. Speculators have learned from past squeezes and are no longer taking large short positions, removing a source of supply. This supply-demand imbalance and changed spec behavior support significantly higher silver prices.
SILVER LONG
Own energy and resource stocks to hedge.
Investors can hedge against unavoidable rising costs of energy, copper and other commodities by owning energy stocks and the very things they consume (resource producers). This turns a cost-of-living crisis for others into a personal opportunity.
XLE LONG
COPX LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 09
Jul 09
Wealthion
1mo
SILVER
MSFT 1ST
1947 Oil & Gas (forthcoming LSE listing)
GLD
▾
HIGH
Silver solar demand supercycle to $300
Silver’s upside is driven by solar panel demand, with China buying aggressively to protect its dominant solar industry. Tight supply and ongoing global solar buildout support a supercycle move to $300.
SILVER LONG
Microsoft overvalued as railroad-like AI play
AI hyperscalers like Microsoft are building infrastructure akin to railroads, with high fixed costs and lower marginal scalability. They should not trade at high growth multiples (50 P/E) but rather at lower infrastructure-like multiples. AI commoditization will compress their valuations.
MSFT AVOID
Shallow water oil cheap cash-flow IPO
1947 Oil & Gas owns shallow-water Gulf of Mexico oil production trading at approximately 1.5x earnings. Accounting rules and abandonment liabilities artificially depress valuations, creating deep value. The assets have low decline rates and generate strong cash flow. The upcoming London IPO offers a chance to participate in a cheap, dividend-paying oil roll-up.
1947 Oil & Gas (forthcoming LSE listing) LONG
Gold debasement supercycle to $10,000
Gold is in a supercycle driven by fiat currency debasement. Central banks are effectively building gold-backed reserves as the price rises, and those without are scrambling to catch up. Every past supercycle pushed prices up 7x, supporting a target of $10,000.
GLD LONG
HIGH
11:26
Jul 09
Jul 09
Wealthion
1mo
QQQ
BCOM
GSCI
SILVER
WTI
▾
HIGH
AI stocks overvalued, avoid them.
The AI/tech sector has become overvalued relative to hard assets and energy. As the commodity supercycle progresses, money should shift out of AI into old-economy sectors, making AI stocks unattractive.
QQQ AVOID
Commodity supercycle is here, go long.
The world is in a commodity supercycle that started in October 2020. Supply-side underinvestment in old economy production capacity ('revenge of the old economy') constrains supply. Demand is driven by deglobalization (defense spending, reshoring, buildout of redundant supply chains), electrification (renewables, nuclear, data centers), and debasement (fiat currency debasement through debt and redistribution). Commodity indices have been trending higher and are set to continue as these forces intensify.
BCOM LONG
GSCI LONG
Buy gold on fiat currency debasement.
Precious metals are extremely bullish because the debasement of fiat currencies (the 'short experiment' since 1971) is making gold and silver essential monetary hedges. As gold price rises, central bank reserves become increasingly gold-backed, reinforcing demand for precious metals.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Oil's backwardation gives massive roll returns.
Oil markets are in backwardation due to scarcity, particularly in refined products. Even if spot oil prices stay flat, rolling front-month futures can generate significant returns (recently 30%+) because the positive roll yield captures a scarcity premium. This makes owning oil through futures or roll-capturing instruments attractive despite price volatility.
WTI LONG
Energy stocks massively undervalued, buy them.
Energy's weight in the S&P 500 is only 3%, far below historical levels. In a commodity supercycle, that share should rise to 10-15%, implying that energy equities are deeply undervalued relative to the AI/tech sector. Investors should overweight energy stocks to capture this mean-reversion.
XLE LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 08
Jul 08
Wealthion
1mo
SILVER
GLD
DBC
AMLP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bullish precious metals on debasement.
Fiat currencies have only existed since 1971, making them a short experiment. As gold prices rise, central bank reserves effectively become gold-backed. Debasement is the core driver for precious metals, and the outlook is extremely bullish.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Commodities in multi-year supercycle accelerating.
A commodity supercycle started in October 2020 and is accelerating. Supply-side underinvestment in old economy capacity (revenge of the old economy) after a decade of low prices and capital flowing to tech created scarcity. On the demand side, deglobalization (reshoring, defense spending, critical minerals, just-in-case inventories), electrification (data centers, renewables, nuclear), and debasement (rising debt, income-driven redistribution) are all boosting commodity demand. Broad commodity indices have shown a persistent upward trend, and the supercycle is now entering a stronger phase.
DBC LONG
Pipeline stocks provide oil exposure with dividends.
Pipeline and midstream energy companies provide exposure to oil with lower volatility, dividend income, and some latency to commodity price swings, making them suitable for a permanent portfolio.
AMLP LONG
HIGH
13:46
Jul 08
Jul 08
Wealthion
1mo
SA 1ST
GLD
GDX
▾
HIGH
Seabridge NPV doubles at current gold.
Seabridge Gold's NPV would roughly double from $4.9 billion to $10 billion if gold prices remain around $4,000, suggesting the stock is deeply undervalued at current levels.
SA LONG
Gold cycle low at $4,000 is a buy.
Gold's correction is overdone, driven by misguided fears of Fed tightening that are unlikely to materialize due to structural debt burdens and new Fed leadership. Bearish sentiment in gold is historically extreme (DSI hit 10% bullish, a rare contrarian buy signal), and $4,000 should serve as the cycle low, presenting a strong buying opportunity.
GLD LONG
Gold miners on sale; buy the pullback.
Gold mining equities are down 35% from their peak, making them one of the few things investors fail to buy when they are on sale. The secular bull market in gold remains intact, and an approaching wave of M&A across seniors, mid-tiers, and emerging producers will provide catalysts and revaluation for the sector.
GDX LONG
HIGH
20:20
Jul 07
Jul 07
Wealthion
1mo
Gold exploration and drilling companies
GLD
GDX 1ST
▾
HIGH
M&A boom lifts junior explorers.
A wave of M&A is expected in the gold mining sector as seniors buy mid-tiers and mid-tiers buy emerging producers to replace reserves. This cascade will particularly benefit exploration and drilling companies at the bottom of the food chain, leading to heightened activity and potentially eye-popping valuations. Trey believes now is a good time to look at these types of companies.
Gold exploration and drilling companies LONG
Gold undervalued due to Fed fears.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates due to structural debt problems and new leadership views on inflation models. Gold has been unduly pressured by misplaced rate-hike fears. Additionally, geopolitical headlines have created emotional selling in gold-related assets. Sentiment indicators for gold are at extremely bearish levels (BSI hit 10% bullish), signaling a cycle low, and Trey believes $4,000 is a logical price floor. Once markets realize the Fed won't tighten, gold should rebound strongly.
GLD LONG
Buy gold miners on correction.
The sharp correction in gold mining equities (GDX down 35%) is a strong buying opportunity. Rick Rule's message has evolved from taking profits in January to now encouraging accumulation. Gold mining equity is something you should buy when it's on sale, not sell. With a three-to-five-year time horizon and tolerance for 50% drawdowns, investors should use the summer weakness to dig into quality gold mining companies. Extremely low sentiment (BSI at 10% bullish) supports a cycle low, and Trey expects investors who buy now will be happy in a year and ecstatic in five years.
GDX LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 06
Jul 06
Wealthion
1mo
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
No Fed hikes, contrary to bond market.
He believes the Fed will not hike interest rates in 2026, contrary to the bond market which is pricing in multiple hikes. This view implies that Treasury yields may under-shoot market expectations, benefiting bond prices.
TLT LONG
MED
20:00
Jul 02
Jul 02
Wealthion
1mo
SPY 1ST
GLD
FXI 1ST
GLTR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid US-focused equity portfolios.
US exceptionalism is fading; dollar debasement, high debt, and an overcrowded capital destination created a 'buy America is best' paradigm that is now a doom loop, making US assets unattractive.
SPY AVOID
Long gold and precious metals.
Gold and precious metals are the best protection against fiat currency debasement, as dollar debasement and high inflation erode purchasing power and countries increasingly prefer gold-based settlement.
GLD LONG
GLTR LONG
Long China over US assets.
China has lower debt ratios, has accumulated vast amounts of gold, and retains trust in its system, making it a more attractive investment destination than the US as global capital shifts.
FXI LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 30
Jun 30
Wealthion
1mo
BRL 1ST
SILVER
KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index)
USD/KRW
ZAR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Dollar losing to key emerging market currencies.
The US dollar is not strong across the board. Against key emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, long-term devaluation trends have broken. USD/BRL shows a head and shoulders top with a downside target of 4.6. USD/ZAR similarly broke down from a rising wedge. De-dollarization and commodity trade flows are strengthening these currencies.
BRL LONG
ZAR LONG
Rest periods shortening, bull trend remains intact.
The secular bull market in precious metals is intact. Rest periods between gold rallies are shortening, from 20 years to 8 years to 3 years, indicating an accelerating trend. China's steady accumulation of gold and the slow erosion of dollar dominance provide fundamental support. The recent pullback is a medium-term correction (shooting star candle) and a buying opportunity for long-term accumulation, not a top. Silver and platinum are part of the same bullish structure.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
PPLT LONG
KOSPI AI bubble set to burst sharply.
South Korea's KOSPI index, dominated by Samsung and SK Hynix, has surged 310% in 14 months on AI memory chip hype. Foreign institutional money is already exiting, replaced by leveraged retail domestic buyers aged 50-60. The sentiment extreme and the CEO of Samsung warning of Chinese competition suggest an imminent blowoff top. KOSPI will lead the AI bubble burst.
KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) SHORT
Korean won to weaken sharply soon.
The AI bubble bursting will trigger capital flight from South Korea, causing a sharp depreciation of the Korean won. Historically, KOSPI downturns coincide with spikes in USD/KRW. Expect the dollar to have a 'super spike' against the won as foreign direct investment withdraws.
USD/KRW LONG
Reduce exposure to overvalued tech stocks.
US technology stocks and ETFs are extremely overvalued, concentrated in a narrow set of AI winners, and driven by passive flows that double down on overvaluation. Smart money is already sidelined. The speaker recommends cycling back exposure to tech and moving defensive.
QQQ AVOID
Bond market in serious long-term trouble.
The bond market is not a safe haven this cycle. The long-end Treasury market is in serious structural trouble, and high-yield credit will follow. The speaker holds puts on bonds and expects no durable bid during the next equity downturn.
US High-Yield Corporate Bonds SHORT
TLT SHORT
Mining stocks to buy after metals correction.
After the ongoing correction in gold and silver subsides, precious metals mining stocks will offer a leveraged way to participate in the secular precious metals bull market. This is a future opportunity once the discount window widens further.
Precious Metals Mining Stocks LONG
Oil prices must fall to avoid hikes.
High oil prices threaten to re-accelerate inflation, forcing the Fed to keep hiking. The economy cannot withstand sustained high oil; it acts as a multiplier crushing demand. Oil is already being used as a tool to bring down inflation expectations. The speaker is short oil since the $90s, expecting a move into the $60s.
WTI SHORT
HIGH
20:00
Jun 29
Jun 29
Wealthion
1mo
Hong Kong equities
MCHI 1ST
▾
MED
Hong Kong shares: safe China exposure play.
Hong Kong shares are a warrant on China, offering a way to participate in China's long-term growth, and Hong Kong's safety compared to many Western cities makes it an attractive investment.
Hong Kong equities LONG
Chinese cars technologically superior, cheaper, threatening dominance.
Chinese car manufacturers are technologically very advanced, can produce cars at about half the price of Western companies, and in theory could put the entire Western car industry out of business.
MCHI LONG
MED
20:00
Jun 26
Jun 26
Wealthion
1mo
SILVER
XLK
QQQ
GLD
▾
HIGH
Gold and silver fall during crash
During the coming credit crunch and crisis, gold and silver will fall because investors will need cash to cover loans and solve liquidity demands, just as they did during the 2008 financial crisis. They are not safe havens in that phase.
SILVER SHORT
GLD SHORT
AI boom ends in colossal losses
The AI boom is real with massive capital spending, but history shows that such technology booms (railroads, autos, oil, dot-com) usually end in colossal losses for most participants. Only a few winners survive, and many investors will be disappointed.
XLK AVOID
Nasdaq to rally 15% more
Zeberg believes the Nasdaq is in a final melt-up phase, with a target of at least 33,000-34,000, driven by a fractal similar to 1997-2000, vertical moves, and rotation of capital into the US. He says the market has at least 15% upside from here as investors chase the 'last 20%' of the rally, but warns it is 'pure air' – not value.
QQQ LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 25
Jun 25
Wealthion
1mo
EMX 1ST
Altius 1ST
Origin 1ST
Kenneland 1ST
Andean Minerals
▾
HIGH
Prospect generators win more in exploration
Prospect generators — exploration companies that use their technical and political expertise to originate projects and bring in joint-venture partners rather than diluting equity — have delivered Rule a roughly 30% success rate (23 economic discoveries and 22 takeovers across about 70 public prospect generators), vastly outperforming the 1-in-3,000 industry baseline for grassroots exploration. The market dislikes them because they are boring, rarely issue equity, and generate no brokerage commissions, creating a persistent mispricing. Rule is returning to this favorite area and expects a major theme at his 2027 conference.
EMX LONG
Altius LONG
Origin LONG
Kenneland LONG
Andean Minerals LONG
Snowline deposit and management exceptional
Snowline Gold in the Yukon hosts a stunning grassroots gold deposit, and its young CEO — who grew up prospecting in the Yukon and went to MIT — represents an exceptional management resource for speculators. The combination of a profound deposit and superior human capital separates Snowline from peers.
SAU.V LONG
Buy gold on summer weakness
Gold is a long-term buy because the US fiscal situation makes a bear case nearly impossible: requiring a balanced budget, a solution for $40T in debt, dealing with $120T in unfunded entitlements, and a 10-year Treasury yield that exceeds the 8-10% annual dollar depreciation rate (implying a 10-12% 10-year yield and 12% mortgage rates). Rule saves in gold, is a consistent buyer, and views any summer weakness from higher rates as a sale — an opportunity to acquire more at lower prices. He explicitly hopes for a tough summer so he can buy more.
GLD LONG
Buy top gold miners for decade
Senior gold-mining and royalty companies are undervalued by traditional valuation metrics relative to the gold price and their future cash flows. For sensible investors unwilling to do intensive junior-mining work, the 'very best' — Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious, and Agnico Eagle — can be bought and held for a decade. The quality of senior-company management is significantly higher than its reputation, and they are now held to higher standards including disciplined capital allocation, dividends and buybacks.
AEM LONG
FNV LONG
WPM LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 24
Jun 24
Wealthion
1mo
XLK 1ST
XLF 1ST
US Homebuilders
SPY 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI boom will end in disaster.
He believes the AI investment boom will end badly, much like past manias such as railroads, automobiles, and dot-com. Massive capital spending with uncertain profitability will lead to colossal losses for most participants; only a few companies will survive and even they may not be profitable. AI stocks are dangerously overvalued and investors will be disappointed.
XLK AVOID
Financials and homebuilders poised to gain.
He observes exceptional strength in US financial stocks and emerging strength in home builders, which suggests the market believes interest rates will trend lower. With his outlook for lower bond yields in the next six months, these rate-sensitive sectors are poised to benefit.
XLF LONG
US Homebuilders LONG
Major market top approaching, disaster ahead.
He believes that a major top is forming in the US stock market and it will end in a complete disaster. Financial assets are grossly inflated, the economy has been financialized, and the advance has been very narrow with only AI-related and a few other stocks driving indices higher. Most stocks are already below key moving averages and the market cap is an enormous multiple of the real economy, making a crash far more devastating than in the past. He expects the S&P 500 to roll over and drag down the index.
SPY AVOID
Gold, silver, platinum long-term inflation hedges.
He remains a long-term advocate of owning gold (and also silver and platinum) as protection against the coming US fiscal crisis and inevitable money printing. He has not sold his gold, though he sees a near-term correction in gold and silver that could last until September/October due to slower liquidity growth. Over the longer run, hard assets will benefit from capital flows out of overvalued financial assets.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
PPLT LONG
Long US bonds, yields moving lower.
He is long US bonds because almost everyone else is short. He expects interest rates to decline over the next six months as the economy weakens, ordinary people struggle, and inflationary pressures ease temporarily. The bond market is signaling lower yields, and he sees value in bonds as a contrarian trade.
TLT LONG
Indonesian and Thai stocks are cheap.
Money can flow out of overvalued US markets into cheap emerging markets. He specifically names Indonesia and Thailand as inexpensive, noting that they have already begun to outperform the US. Thinks some aspects argue for having investments in Thailand at the present time.
EIDO LONG
THD LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 23
Jun 23
Wealthion
2mo
SILVER
GDX
GLD
▾
HIGH
Gold wins when bonds break.
The US bond market is weak and at risk of breaking; when confidence in bonds fails, trillions of dollars will seek safety, driving gold and silver higher. Historical gold bull markets occurred during stock market distress and uncertainty, with gold serving as the ultimate hedge when the system is under stress.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Miners leveraged to gold breakout.
Gold mining stocks outperformed the stock market in prior gold bull markets driven by uncertainty (1970s, 2000s). With gold set to rise as bond market risk escalates and the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio turns favorable, miners offer leveraged upside. He is accumulating miners while waiting for the 'death cross' when gold overtakes the S&P 500.
GDX LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 22
Jun 22
Wealthion
2mo
CRWV 1ST
AMZN
AAPL
GOOGL
MELI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid CoreWeave: insiders exit at high valuations.
CoreWeave and similar mega IPOs are being brought to market at opportunistic times when private investors can sell into sky-high expectations. Insiders taking money off the table and post-lockup selling pressure historically lead to significant short-term underperformance. Investors should avoid buying these IPOs at the offering and wait for better, more informed entry points.
CRWV AVOID
Amazon offers hidden value and strong moat.
Amazon is a dominant business with a powerful moat and massive free cash flow. Its reinvestment strategy depresses near-term margins but builds lasting market share. The space ambitions (Blue Origin) are not priced in, offering hidden upside if they succeed. The stock has historically pulled back sharply (e.g. 40–45% in 2022-23), which created buying opportunities, and the current valuation is attractive given its durable growth and ability to raise prices when it wants.
AMZN LONG
Apple is a consumer staple with strong moat.
Apple is effectively a consumer staple wrapped in technology. Its ecosystem (iPhone, iPad, MacBook) creates high switching costs and customer lock-in, giving it a wide moat. It generates large predictable free cash flows that can be valued reliably. The business is a leader in a market it controls, making it a quality compounder.
AAPL LONG
Alphabet has a massive moat and cash flow.
Alphabet (Google/YouTube/Waymo/DeepMind) holds number one or number two positions across multiple secular growth verticals. It enjoys a massive moat, abundant cash flow, and operates in areas growing faster than the overall economy. The company is predictable enough for valuation, and its market positions are entrenched, allowing time to react if competitive erosion begins.
GOOGL LONG
Mercado Libre undervalued, dominant in South America.
Mercado Libre is the leading e-commerce and fintech platform across much of South America, analogous to Amazon but with stronger local dominance. It is currently reinvesting heavily in the business, which depresses near-term earnings and has created a very low valuation. That reinvestment is strengthening its market position and competitive moat, setting the company up for durable long-term growth and the ability to compete with Amazon regionally.
MELI LONG
Sprott Inc great commodity play, takeout candidate.
Sprott Inc is a high-quality asset manager that controls a suite of commodity-focused ETFs. It is a superior way to play the commodity space because it captures fee-based revenue at the parent level. Additionally, Sprott possesses one of the best brands in the commodity investment niche, making it an attractive long-term takeout candidate.
SII LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jun 18
Jun 18
Wealthion
2mo
QQQ
GLD FLIP
SILVER 1ST
HSI 1ST
EWY
▾
HIGH
Nasdaq to rally another 15%.
The market is in a final melt-up phase, and the NASDAQ is expected to rally at least another 15% to 33,000-34,000, driven by still-supportive liquidity, late-cycle psychology, and capital rotating into US equities, similar to the run-up to the 2000 top.
QQQ LONG
Avoid gold and silver now.
Gold and silver have already completed their parabolic run and will not make new all-time highs; capital is rotating out of them into equities and crypto, making them unattractive for new upside.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Top in Hang Seng and KOSPI.
The Hang Seng Index and the KOSPI are forming tops as capital rotates out of Asian markets into US equities, which will fuel the US melt-up; investors should avoid these markets due to likely underperformance.
HSI AVOID
EWY AVOID
Bitcoin and Ethereum to surge soon.
Cryptocurrencies will see a massive rally during the final melt-up as extreme risk assets; capital will rotate into crypto with Bitcoin possibly reaching $100,000–120,000 and Ethereum outperforming, before a combined top with equities.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
Buy US Treasuries for crash safety.
During the coming market crash after the melt-up, US Treasury bonds will be the only true safe haven, providing essential dollar exposure as a global scramble for dollars and safe assets unfolds, much like in 2008.
TLT LONG
HIGH
13:29
Jun 17
Jun 17
Wealthion
2mo
TLT
▾
MED
Government debt market is on fire.
The US government debt market is in a catastrophic state, like a house on fire, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh is boxed in and unable to address it effectively. This suggests a structural breakdown that will end badly for government bonds.
TLT SHORT
MED
20:00
Jun 16
Jun 16
Wealthion
2mo
SPY
NVDA 1ST
Farmland 1ST
TLT 1ST
TSLA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid S&P 500; favor innovators.
The S&P 500 index is unattractive because it is overly influenced by index mechanics and lacks the return potential of innovative companies; investors should focus on innovators that can deliver exceptional returns irrespective of entry price.
SPY AVOID
Nvidia no longer a 10x story.
Nvidia's asymmetric upside story has changed now; the odds of another 10x in five years appear much lower, making the stock unattractive compared to when he originally bought it.
NVDA AVOID
Farmland for stable, slow wealth building.
Farmland is a tangible real asset that provides stable, boring returns and a sleep-well portfolio component, suitable for long-term wealth preservation amid high uncertainty.
Farmland LONG
Defensive; overweight Treasuries.
Treasuries offer safety and a more attractive upside/downside ratio today given market heat; being over 50% in Treasuries is a defensive stance that reflects the reduced potential for further huge equity gains.
TLT LONG
Avoid Tesla due to noise and hype.
Tesla and Elon Musk companies are overhyped and clouded by too much noise and BS, making them unattractive for an investor seeking a clear thesis; thus, he avoids them entirely.
TSLA AVOID
Avoid SpaceX, overhyped pre-IPO.
SpaceX is already overhyped before even going public, offering no arbitrage or attractive entry; he would not invest at current valuations or hype levels.
SpaceX (when public) AVOID
Gold and silver as monetary real assets.
Gold and silver serve as monetary assets and real assets that are essential to support innovators; they provide a hedge and long-term value in a nonlinear economy.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Speculative long Rivian for asymmetric upside.
Rivian is a high-risk asymmetric bet: the only US company mastering in-house EV design and manufacturing, with licensing deals to traditional automakers; if the narrative and government support align, it could 10x–30x despite a high probability of bankruptcy.
RIVN LONG
HIGH
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