Calls
11
#857
Alpha Score 21.9
Kevin Muir
Host, MacroVoices
Win Rate
36.4%
return
-4.6%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 10
$133.59
-13.9%
Oil is a no-brainer long because the risk/reward is asymmetric: if Hormuz conflict is resolved, oil may fall ~$10 to the low $80s, but if it worsens, oil could spike $30+ to $120-150. Structural inventory depletion and physical market tightness provide a floor, while the market is overly complacent.
Commodities
Long
Apr 25
$94.34
-17.6%
Gold miners may offer a place to hide relative to gold itself, as Newmont's earnings were solid and the group could grind higher even if gold stays in a choppy range.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Apr 11
$437.13
-14.6%
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, especially the People's Bank of China, which will continue accumulating for years. The recent geopolitical sell-off was a cleansing of speculative positions, creating a buying opportunity. The thesis is not about short-term war premiums but about structural demand from reserve diversification.
Commodities
Long
Apr 11
$86.49
-4.1%
Long-dated US Treasuries (30-year) present a compelling risk/reward over a 3-9 month horizon because CTAs are now max short bonds, the economy is facing headwinds from high oil and tight credit conditions, and a recession would trigger a significant bond rally. However, timing is difficult as another leg down is possible if oil spikes further.
Bonds & Rates
Short
Aug 01
$540.53
-6.2%
The AI and semiconductor bubble has burst, and these stocks will likely behave like silver did after its peak, experiencing a sharp correction followed by a bounce and then a long, slow drift lower.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 20
$56.85
+2.3%
A sustained US dollar rally is likely to eventually trigger a risk-off event, and in a risk-off environment the Japanese yen should rally as a safe haven. He remains long the yen despite current dollar strength, expecting the risk-off reversal to pay off.
FX & Currencies
Short
Jun 12
$739.78
-4.4%
The market is extremely overbought, showing clear distribution on hourly charts with every rally sold. Systematic selling triggers (CTAs) sit near 7,300 on the S&P, and an unprecedented wave of IPOs and secondary deals (SpaceX, Google, Meta) is draining cash. The time has come to sell the rips and short the S&P 500.
Equity Indexes
Long
Apr 25
$87.32
+8.0%
Japan's equity market is a long-term buy-and-forget position, supported by structural reforms, corporate governance improvements, and a semiconductor tailwind. The Nikkei is at 52-week highs and should be held.
Equity Indexes
Short
Apr 11
$12.36
-4.9%
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Apr 11
$79.96
+0.6%
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Apr 11
$25.89
+4.2%
Energy stocks remain underowned and undervalued relative to the structural tailwinds from underinvestment, geopolitical supply risks, and the likely persistence of elevated oil prices. Canadian energy is particularly attractive given long-life reserves and potential pipeline developments. The sector is still cheap despite being the best performer over the past year.
Thematic ETFs
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Kevin Muir has 11 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 11 tickers since April 2026. Ranked #857 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: BNO, GDX, GOLD.
