ROI not AGI (Guest: Leonid Mironov)

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 10, 2026 at 13:29  |  1:51:07  |  The Market Huddle
Speakers
Leonid Mironov — Portfolio Manager, Gavekal Capital
Kevin Muir — Host, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Summary

Guest Leonid Mironov makes a bullish case for Chinese stocks due to anti-involution policies ending deflation. He also favors aluminum and lithium. Co-hosts Kevin Muir and Patrick Ceresna debate oil's asymmetric risk, predict a semiconductor blowoff top in May, and see wheat as an asymmetric long. The discussion covers narrow market leadership and potential rotation.

  • Leonid Mironov is bullish on Chinese equities, citing PPI inflation and market reforms.
  • Leonid likes aluminum and lithium as commodity trades benefiting from reduced Chinese competition.
  • Patrick Ceresna predicts a parabolic top in semiconductors (SMH) within May.
  • Kevin Muir argues oil is a no-brainer long due to asymmetric risk from Hormuz disruption.
  • Patrick sees wheat as an asymmetric long opportunity after a pullback.
  • The stock market is extremely narrow, with semiconductors driving the rally while breadth lags.
  • Potential sector rotation after semiconductors peak could benefit materials and copper stocks.
  • Bitcoin and South Korea are noted as underperformers in the current environment.
Trade Ideas
Leonid Mironov Portfolio Manager, Gavekal Capital 7:30
China stocks are a buy
Chinese equities are attractive because anti-involution policies are ending producer price deflation, leading to PPI inflation, healthier earnings, and a more responsive consumer. Market reforms incentivize dividends and buybacks, and net issuance turned negative for the first time. Consumer savings are huge and only 7% in equities, poised to flow in as inflation erodes cash.
FXI HIGH
Leonid Mironov Portfolio Manager, Gavekal Capital 19:14
Long aluminum for margin recovery
Aluminum is a long because China's anti-involution campaign means they will no longer compete on margins down to zero, leading to higher profitability for the industry globally.
Aluminum MED
Leonid Mironov Portfolio Manager, Gavekal Capital 46:48
Lithium shortages ahead
Lithium is likely to see shortages as early as second half of 2026 due to strong demand from EVs and storage, while anti-involution limits supply expansion. Prices are not stuck at current lows and will rise to incentivize new projects.
LITHIUM MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 66:57
SMH parabolic top in May
Semiconductors (SMH) are in a parabolic blowoff top, 53% above their 50-week moving average in just four weeks, similar to silver's recent top. The swing high is likely to occur within May, possibly within days. This does not necessarily mean a market crash but a sector rotation.
SMH HIGH
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 83:45
Long oil asymmetric risk/reward
Oil is a no-brainer long because the risk/reward is asymmetric: if Hormuz conflict is resolved, oil may fall ~$10 to the low $80s, but if it worsens, oil could spike $30+ to $120-150. Structural inventory depletion and physical market tightness provide a floor, while the market is overly complacent.
WTI HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 99:52
Long wheat at pullback
Wheat is an attractive re-entry point on the pullback to the 50-day moving average, as it is an asymmetric trade tied to food shortage and Hormuz headlines, with potential for a sharp move higher.
WEAT MED
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This The Market Huddle video, published May 10, 2026, features Leonid Mironov, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir discussing FXI, Aluminum, LITHIUM, SMH, WTI, WEAT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Leonid Mironov, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir  · Tickers: FXI, Aluminum, LITHIUM, SMH, WTI, WEAT