LOUIS TURNS THE TABLES ON KEV (Guest: Louis-Vincent Gave)

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 11, 2026 at 15:25  |  2:41:32  |  The Market Huddle
Speakers
Kevin Muir — Host, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Summary

In this episode, Louis-Vincent Gave turns the tables and interviews Kevin Muir about his contrarian investment process. They discuss gold, energy stocks, bonds, the dollar, and China, followed by Patrick Ceresna's technical analysis of the S&P 500, crude oil, and precious metals. The conversation highlights the structural shifts from fiscal policy, the impact of elevated oil prices, and potential recession risks.

  • Kevin Muir explains his contrarian approach of focusing on what is priced in and the importance of risk/reward.
  • Gold is a long-term buy driven by central bank accumulation, particularly by China, after a cleansing of speculative positions.
  • Energy stocks remain underowned and structurally bullish despite short-term volatility; Canadian energy (XEG) is a preferred expression.
  • Kevin Muir is positioned long the short end of the Treasury curve (2s/5s) and has a small punt on the long end (30s) as a contrarian recession bet.
  • He is short high-yield credit and BDCs (BIZD) as a bet on the private credit bubble bursting.
  • Louis-Vincent Gave highlights Chinese government bonds as the best-performing major bond market on a total return basis.
  • Patrick Ceresna notes that the S&P 500 has returned zero over six months with global markets outperforming, and he sees oil staying above $80 for the summer.
  • The bond market is at an inflection point with CTAs max short, but timing is difficult given potential further oil spikes.
Trade Ideas
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 17:02
Central bank gold buying drives long-term bull.
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, especially the People's Bank of China, which will continue accumulating for years. The recent geopolitical sell-off was a cleansing of speculative positions, creating a buying opportunity. The thesis is not about short-term war premiums but about structural demand from reserve diversification.
GLD HIGH
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 38:44
Long bonds contrarian bet on slowdown.
Long-dated US Treasuries (30-year) present a compelling risk/reward over a 3-9 month horizon because CTAs are now max short bonds, the economy is facing headwinds from high oil and tight credit conditions, and a recession would trigger a significant bond rally. However, timing is difficult as another leg down is possible if oil spikes further.
TLT MED
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 38:46
Short-end bonds benefit from recession.
Short-term Treasury yields (2s and 5s) are attractive because the economy is perched on a precarious ledge and the Fed will eventually cut rates. Front-end bonds provide a cleaner way to play the recession outcome without the duration risk of the long end.
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries MED
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 42:02
US dollar to fall as release valve.
The US dollar is the ultimate release valve for the fiscal and geopolitical pressures. With the rest of the world repatriating capital, Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, and the massive US fiscal deficit, the dollar is set to decline. This is a cleaner bet than shorting bonds because the government will fight rising yields but not a weaker currency.
US Dollar (DXY) LOW
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 59:46
Energy stocks underowned, cheap, structural bull.
Energy stocks remain underowned and undervalued relative to the structural tailwinds from underinvestment, geopolitical supply risks, and the likely persistence of elevated oil prices. Canadian energy is particularly attractive given long-life reserves and potential pipeline developments. The sector is still cheap despite being the best performer over the past year.
XEG HIGH
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 70:38
Short high yield and BDCs as recession plays.
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
BIZD HYG MED
Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 79:43
Long volatility on Trump-era uncertainty.
In the current Trump-driven environment of wild geopolitical gyrations and unpredictable policy, owning long-term volatility (via options) is a prudent portfolio hedge and profit opportunity. The large moves are likely to persist, and long-dated volatility allows patience while structural uncertainty remains elevated.
Long-term VIX options MED
Louis Gave Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research 87:35
Chinese bonds best performers, buy for total return.
Chinese government bonds have been the best-performing major bond market over the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. The Chinese economy is managed for bondholders, offering total returns that outpace Western bond markets. Despite low nominal yields, the total return story is compelling and often overlooked by investors fixated on equity returns.
CBON HIGH
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This The Market Huddle video, published April 11, 2026, features Kevin Muir, Louis Gave discussing GLD, TLT, US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries, US Dollar (DXY), XEG, BIZD, HYG, Long-term VIX options, CBON. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kevin Muir, Louis Gave  · Tickers: GLD, TLT, US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries, US Dollar (DXY), XEG, BIZD, HYG, Long-term VIX options, CBON