Patrick Ceresna

WTI Crude options show a "distinct right tail skew" where upside calls are expensive relative to downside puts. The market is rangebound in the $60s but carries significant geopolitical headline risk. Instead of buying flat futures (delta 1) which are subject to whipsaws, one can use the skew to finance a position. By buying lower IV in-the-money calls and selling higher IV out-of-the-money calls, you create a position that profits even if oil stays flat, but captures upside if a geopolitical event occurs. Patrick suggests a Bull Call Spread (specifically referencing April 2026 contracts). For the general investor, this translates to a tactical long position with defined risk. A de-escalation of geopolitical tension could send WTI down to $55.

Patrick explicitly described structuring a June 2026 NSX crude oil bull call spread (buy $100 call, sell $120 call) for a net debit near $3, risking $3 to gain up to $17. The ceasefire reduced immediate threat but did not eliminate Strait of Hormuz risk; downside is limited while any re-escalation could quickly push prices toward recent highs. Asymmetric setup with high reward-to-risk (near 6:1) favors a long position via options to capture convex upside if geopolitics deteriorate. The ceasefire holds and the situation stabilizes, keeping oil prices subdued.

Uranium miners have corrected sharply, clearing out overbought technical conditions, but the long-term fundamental demand from the AI/Energy thesis remains intact. The recent sell-off was a "shakeout of weak hands" (likely margin calls from precious metals traders). The structural deficit in uranium supply has not changed, making this dip an entry point for the next leg of the bull market. LONG. Re-enter the nuclear fuel cycle trade after the technical washout. A liquidity event in broader markets dragging down all commodities, or a nuclear accident.

The NASDAQ 100 has failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average, driven by weakness in software stocks. However, Semiconductors are making fresh 52-week highs. Capital is rotating within the tech sector. While the broader index and software struggle with overhead resistance, the momentum and relative strength are concentrated purely in hardware/semiconductors. Long Semiconductors as the clear leader in a bifurcated tech market. If the "Mag 7" generally roll over, they could drag the high-flying semi sector down with them.

Long US financials, short European financials

Long US financials, short European financials

The speaker proposed buying May 2026 $13 put options on the BIZD ETF, a public market proxy for Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private credit. Matt Barrie's analysis indicates private credit is stressed because its portfolios contain debt from SaaS companies whose business models are being eroded by AI, and funding rounds are becoming too large for equity, forcing over-reliance on debt. SHORT (via puts) to gain convex downside exposure to a potential repricing of credit risk in the private credit space, while avoiding the negative carry of a physical short. The private credit market stabilizes or rallies, or the stress does not materialize in the public BDC complex within the option's timeframe.

Beneath the surface, there's still structural stresses building, particularly in private credit where redemption pressures continue to surface and in the systematic space where several flow triggers are now being hit. Weakness in mega-cap leadership and underlying structural stresses mean the market is highly vulnerable to a sudden 10+% drop. Buying defined-risk downside convexity, such as a 95/85 put spread, costs a very small percentage of portfolio value (roughly 80 basis points) but offers an asymmetric 11:1 payoff if these fragilities trigger a broad market liquidation. SHORT the broader equity index using put spreads to hedge against left-tail risk while managing premium costs. Geopolitical tensions de-escalate and the market grinds higher, causing the hedge premium to expire worthless.

Gold has corrected roughly 20% peak-to-trough but the long-term structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and central bank hoarding remains intact. In a sanctions-heavy world, gold is a reserve asset, not just a trade. However, volatility is high. To manage this, investors should maintain core long exposure but hedge the "fat right tail" skew. Implement a "Collar" strategy. With GLD at $476, Buy the May 2026 430 Put and Sell the May 2026 575 Call. This finances downside protection by capping extreme upside, creating a defined risk envelope. A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar could suppress gold prices below the put strike, though the hedge protects against crash risk.

The Tech Software ETF (IGV) has crashed 30%, breaking all support lines. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has broken December/January lows and closed below the 50-day moving average. The "Mag 7" earnings generally disappointed, removing the tailwind for the S&P 500. With the 50-day moving average breached, systematic funds (CTAs/Vol Control) are triggered to sell, creating a liquidity vacuum. The market is "highly vulnerable" to a 10%+ correction. The breakdown in software is a leading indicator for the broader tech indices. A sudden reversal in liquidity conditions or unexpected positive macro data could trigger a short squeeze.

Patrick Ceresna proposes shorting the Euro as the cleanest way to express the thesis that rising energy and food import costs create a direct terms-of-trade shock for Europe, similar to import-dependent emerging markets. Sustained high energy prices force European nations to demand more dollars to fund essential imports, creating persistent selling pressure on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is a direct, liquid proxy for this macro view. He structures the idea with a defined-risk options overlay (short futures paired with a call spread) to hedge against headline-driven rallies. The trade loses its edge if oil prices roll over, supply chains normalize, or global growth stabilizes, removing the terms-of-trade pressure.

Patrick Ceresna recommended going long Chicago SRW wheat via a call spread on the WEAT ETF (buy $25 call, sell $30 call, Oct 16, 2026 expiry) to position for rising food inflation. Food inflation is underappreciated; fertilizer costs are rising due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions (affecting urea, ammonia, sulfur), which historically lead food CPI higher by ~6 months, and tightening export flows support wheat prices. LONG via call spread to define risk while gaining leveraged exposure to a potential repricing as the food inflation narrative gains traction, using elevated implied volatility and right-tail skew advantageously. The food inflation narrative fails to materialize (e.g., swift geopolitical resolution eases fertilizer pressures) or wheat supply surprises to the upside.

"A substantial reversal of the dollar trend... The dollar strengthening here seems to have room to come to the top of the trade range near the 100 handle." In times of kinetic war, institutional mandates force capital into US Treasuries/Dollar for safety, overriding long-term bearish fundamentals. The Euro breakdown further supports the DXY (UUP) rally. LONG. Momentum and safety flows are driving a short squeeze on the Dollar. Fed intervention or a rapid shift in global sentiment regarding US foreign policy.

Uranium miners have corrected sharply, clearing out overbought technical conditions, but the long-term fundamental demand from the AI/Energy thesis remains intact. The recent sell-off was a "shakeout of weak hands" (likely margin calls from precious metals traders). The structural deficit in uranium supply has not changed, making this dip an entry point for the next leg of the bull market. LONG. Re-enter the nuclear fuel cycle trade after the technical washout. A liquidity event in broader markets dragging down all commodities, or a nuclear accident.

10-Year Treasury yields have reversed off the 4.30% level and are trending back down toward 4%. The bond market is signaling a resumption of the downtrend in yields. Lower yields equate to higher bond prices. Long duration bonds (via TLT) to capture capital appreciation as yields compress. Inflation data surprises to the upside, forcing yields back above the 4.30% resistance.