Don Durrett: When Bonds Break, Gold Explodes

Summary

Don Durrett argues that the Fed's real priority is financial stability, not inflation, and that the true risk lies in the US bond market. He believes gold and gold miners are poised for a historic breakout when confidence in bonds fails and trillions seek safety, though the AI trade has delayed this momentum. He uses the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio to monitor the coming 'death cross' when gold surpasses equities.

• Fed's dual mandate is a facade; the real goal is preventing a market crash.
• Bond market weakness is the core risk, potentially driving safety flows into gold.
• Gold has historically outperformed during prolonged stock market distress (1970s, 2000s).
• AI trade has drawn capital away from gold, delaying but not negating the gold bull case.
• The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio is a key indicator; a future 'death cross' would signal gold's supremacy.
• Gold mining stocks have historically leveraged gold upswings and are being accumulated now.
• 250 trillion in global stocks and bonds could seek safety, catalyzing gold's next leg up.