Henrik Zeberg: The Final Melt-Up Before Everything Breaks
Speakers
Henrik Zeberg
— Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock
Summary
Henrik Zeberg warns of a final, violent melt-up in stocks and crypto that could push the NASDAQ to 33,000–34,000 before a brutal crash rivaling the dot-com bust and 2008 unfolds. He advises short-term traders to ride the melt-up, but urges investors to prepare for recession, deflation, and a credit crunch by moving into US Treasuries and avoiding gold, silver, and topping Asian markets.
- Zeberg expects a final melt-up in US equities, led by the NASDAQ with a 15%+ rally to 33,000–34,000, driven by late-cycle psychology and capital inflows from abroad.
- He sees the dot-com bubble as an appetizer and a larger 2008-style credit crisis as the main course, leading to a deep recession and deflationary bust.
- Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, will benefit from risk-on rotation, with Bitcoin possibly reaching $100,000–120,000 before a joint equity-crypto top.
- Gold and silver have already peaked and will not make new highs, as money rotates into equities and crypto.
- Asian markets like the Hang Seng and KOSPI are forming tops and will underperform as capital flows back to the US.
- US Treasury bonds are the ultimate safe haven for the coming crash, offering dollar exposure and safety similar to 2008.
- Underlying economic weakness, a deteriorating jobs market, and stretched private credit pose severe risks that the market is ignoring.
Ideas
Nasdaq to rally another 15%.
The market is in a final melt-up phase, and the NASDAQ is expected to rally at least another 15% to 33,000-34,000, driven by still-supportive liquidity, late-cycle psychology, and capital rotating into US equities, similar to the run-up to the 2000 top.
Top in Hang Seng and KOSPI.
The Hang Seng Index and the KOSPI are forming tops as capital rotates out of Asian markets into US equities, which will fuel the US melt-up; investors should avoid these markets due to likely underperformance.
Bitcoin and Ethereum to surge soon.
Cryptocurrencies will see a massive rally during the final melt-up as extreme risk assets; capital will rotate into crypto with Bitcoin possibly reaching $100,000–120,000 and Ethereum outperforming, before a combined top with equities.
Avoid gold and silver now.
Gold and silver have already completed their parabolic run and will not make new all-time highs; capital is rotating out of them into equities and crypto, making them unattractive for new upside.
Buy US Treasuries for crash safety.
During the coming market crash after the melt-up, US Treasury bonds will be the only true safe haven, providing essential dollar exposure as a global scramble for dollars and safe assets unfolds, much like in 2008.
