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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker highlights a clip where the OpenAI CFO suggests a "government backstop" is needed for their trillion-dollar spending commitments, and explicitly states, "The United States government... is going to categorize AI as a military proxy... and throw infinite money at compute." If the US views AI as a Cold War-style arms race, fiscal constraints on AI spending will vanish. The government will subsidize the "ecosystem of banks" and tech giants to ensure the US reaches AGI first. This guarantees revenue for the infrastructure providers and model builders regardless of immediate commercial viability. LONG US AI infrastructure and Hyperscalers as beneficiaries of unlimited government defense spending. Political gridlock preventing subsidies; US actually losing the technical race despite spending. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
|
|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker notes that "4 out of the top 5 AI models by global usage are Chinese," BYD sold 50% more EVs than Tesla, and Chinese consumer apps (TikTok, games) dominate culture. The market consensus is that China merely "steals" IP, but the data shows genuine technical breakthroughs and superior unit economics (Minimax is 20x cheaper than US counterparts). As China dominates both "Atoms" (manufacturing) and "Bits" (AI/Apps), their equity valuations are disconnected from their actual dominance. LONG Chinese tech and manufacturing leaders as they capture global market share in EVs, AI, and culture ("Chinamaxxing"). Geopolitical sanctions; US trade barriers blocking Chinese products. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
|
|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker points out that "out of 100 things made in the military, there's like 80 that the process is traced back to China" and cites Raytheon (RTX) admitting the US cannot decouple from China. The "Bits to Atoms" thesis implies that the last 30 years of software prosperity masked a hollowing out of US industrial capacity. To compete with China, the US must aggressively re-industrialize and secure military supply chains, leading to massive capex in domestic defense and manufacturing. LONG US Defense and Industrials as the beneficiaries of the forced "re-onshoring" and "Bits to Atoms" transition. Supply chain shocks if China cuts off exports before the US can rebuild capacity. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"We want to ensure that we send an extremely strong signal that the value capture is going to the tokencentric model... 100% of that revenue [from Labs products] to the AVA DAO." Historically, value in DeFi protocols was split between the development company (equity) and the DAO (token). Aave Labs is voluntarily forfeiting its revenue streams (including fees from the Aave Card and frontend swaps) to the DAO. This consolidates all economic value into the AAVE token, transforming it from a governance token into a cash-flow generating asset. LONG (Fundamental value accrual shift). The DAO might reject the funding request for Labs ($50M/year), or regulatory scrutiny could increase due to the direct revenue model. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"Aave is lending stablecoins at 5%... and a lot of decentralized competitors are lending between 7 to 12%... centralized lending basically collapse[d]." DeFi has proven a superior cost structure (lower rates for borrowers) and superior risk management (automated, transparent liquidations vs. opaque centralized balance sheets). Traditional finance and centralized crypto lenders suffer from higher overhead and human error/fraud risk, making them structurally uncompetitive against optimized smart contracts like Aave V4. AVOID (Technological obsolescence). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi could force users back to traditional/centralized venues despite the higher costs. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"The biggest resources for us what we learned is solar power... being able to fund a lot of solar which is capital expensive but operational cost low... tokenize that asset use as a collateral in a V4." Stani explicitly identifies "Abundance Assets"—specifically Solar and Batteries—as the primary target for Aave V4's RWA expansion. He views these as the future of collateral because they require massive upfront capital (which DeFi can provide) but have low maintenance costs. If Aave integrates these assets, it creates a new, massive liquidity tap for the solar industry. LONG (Second-order effect of DeFi RWA adoption). Regulatory hurdles in tokenizing real-world energy assets; technical failure of the RWA "spokes" in Aave V4. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Ding X
Founder of Predict.fun / Co-Founder of PancakeSwap
|
Ding X observes, "A lot of my friends in NFTs went to memecoins... and then maybe to prediction markets... that's where the money flows." This describes the "Speculative Liquidity Pipeline." The market is currently saturated with Memecoins. Smart money builders are positioning for the *next* bucket, which is Prediction Markets. The trade is to front-run this rotation. Watch for the peak of the Memecoin cycle to rotate profits into Prediction Market governance tokens or infrastructure. Memecoin supercycle lasts longer than expected; retail users find prediction markets too complex compared to simple token gambling. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Charles Hoskinson
CEO and Founder of Input Output (Cardano)
|
Charles argues that to solve the "insider trading" accusation in prediction markets without destroying privacy, we need "sophisticated selective disclosure tools" using Zero-Knowledge proofs (proving you are accredited/not an insider without revealing your name). As prediction markets attract regulatory heat (SEC/CFTC), the only survival mechanism is "Compliant Privacy." Layer 1s and protocols that have integrated ZK-identity solutions (which Cardano/IOG is building with partners like ZKME) will become the required infrastructure for legal prediction markets. Long ADA and Privacy Infrastructure as a "picks and shovels" play on regulated prediction markets. Regulators may reject ZK proofs and demand full KYC/doxxing, rendering "selective disclosure" tech less valuable. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Ding X
Founder of Predict.fun / Co-Founder of PancakeSwap
|
Ding X (founder of PancakeSwap, the largest DEX on BNB Chain) is now building "Predict.fun" on the BNB Chain. He explicitly states they are "combining DeFi with prediction markets" so that deposited funds earn yield via lending protocols, unlike competitors. The "Capital Efficiency" argument is strong. If a trader can bet on an election *and* earn native DeFi yield on the collateral simultaneously, liquidity will migrate from non-yielding platforms (like Polymarket) to yielding ones. This drives TVL (Total Value Locked) and transaction volume to the BNB Chain. Long BNB as the infrastructure layer and CAKE as the ecosystem proxy (given the founder's lineage), anticipating a sector rotation into yield-bearing prediction markets. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets; failure of the new platform to gain traction against incumbent Polymarket. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
|
|
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Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Ding X
Founder of Predict.fun / Co-Founder of PancakeSwap
|
When asked what went wrong with NFTs, Ding X admits the space has shifted from speculation to a "builder system" and that the massive speculative capital has left for Memecoins. The "100x" speculative premium has evaporated. While the technology remains for utility (like representing prediction market positions), the asset class as a vehicle for rapid wealth generation is currently dead. Capital has moved on. Avoid broad NFT exposure; the sector is in a deflationary consolidation phase. A sudden resurgence of NFT mania driven by a new utility unlock (e.g., gaming). |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Ram Ahluwalia
Founder, Lumida Wealth
|
Nvidia and Apple are the only two major tech stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages. Nvidia has immense pricing power ("Mag 7 has no choice"), and Apple largely sat out the massive CapEx splurge. In a "picks and shovels" gold rush, the value accrues to the hardware provider (NVDA) regardless of whether the customers (MSFT/META) make a profit. Apple remains a defensive play with a cleaner balance sheet by avoiding the "incinerator." LONG. Divergence within Big Tech favors the sellers of infrastructure (NVDA) and the disciplined allocators (AAPL). A sudden halt in AI CapEx spending would crush Nvidia's order book. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
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Feb 18
|
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SHORT
|
Ram Ahluwalia
Founder, Lumida Wealth
|
Hyperscalers have committed to trillion-dollar spending obligations (debt) while current revenues are a fraction of that (e.g., OpenAI/Anthropic revenue vs. valuation). Ram notes, "They're echoes of 2008 when you had debt that wasn't worth par... I don't think it's great for Mag 7." These companies are releveraging their balance sheets (issuing debt/equity) to fund CapEx that has uncertain ROI. This capital destruction reduces their ability to fund share buybacks, which was the primary driver of their stock performance. SHORT/AVOID. The risk/reward for the heavy spenders is skewed to the downside as they incinerate cash. AI monetization accelerates faster than expected, validating the spend. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
|
While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Austin Campbell
Founder, Zero Knowledge Group; Co-host Bits+Bips (Unchained); Adj. Prof. NYU Stern
|
AI agents perform vast numbers of micro-transactions. The market is coalescing around "US dollar stablecoins" as the currency and high-throughput chains for settlement. Bitcoin is explicitly deemed "not well-designed" for this use case. As AI agents begin transacting autonomously, transaction volume will explode. This volume flows to the issuers of the currency (Coinbase/Circle) and the most efficient networks (Solana). LONG. Bet on the infrastructure that facilitates the "Agentic Economy." Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins or a shift to CBDCs. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
|
Institutions are moving on-chain despite low token prices. BlackRock is using Uniswap X; Apollo is acquiring Morpho tokens. Smart money is buying the "rails" and protocols during the bear market. The utility of swapping tokenized assets (e.g., JPM Coin for Mercado Libre Coin) will occur on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap. LONG. Institutional validation provides a floor, and future tokenized asset volume will drive protocol revenue. Continued regulatory hostility towards DeFi interfaces. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Katherine Wu
Host / Starkware
|
Physical attacks on crypto holders (kidnappings, home invasions) have risen 75% year-over-year. Criminals are using public ledger data to target individuals in the real world. The transparency of public blockchains, once a feature, is becoming a physical liability for high-net-worth individuals. This creates a non-speculative, safety-driven demand for privacy technologies (specifically Zero-Knowledge Proofs) that allow value transfer without exposing net worth to local criminals. Long Privacy Infrastructure and ZK-rollups (like Starknet) as they transition from "regulatory evasion tools" to "personal safety necessities." Regulatory bodies may conflate personal privacy tools with money laundering facilitation despite the safety argument. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Katherine Wu
Host / Starkware
|
CFTC Chair Behnam explicitly stated the agency "would no longer stand idle" while states infringe on their jurisdiction regarding prediction markets. The CFTC is effectively positioning itself as the federal shield for prediction markets against a patchwork of state-level bans. If the CFTC wins this "federal preemption" argument (likely heading to the Supreme Court), it legitimizes the asset class and removes the existential risk of 50 separate state battles. Long the sector. The regulatory headwinds are converting into a federal framework that favors established players. Supreme Court rules in favor of States' rights, fragmenting the market. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
V
Former SEC / Web3 Legal Expert
|
Physical coercion (muggers forcing transfers) is forcing fintechs like Revolut to implement time-delays and "reversible" features. Pure, instant, irreversible self-custody is becoming too dangerous for the average retail user due to physical threats. The market will shift back toward centralized, custodial intermediaries (like Coinbase) that can offer "safety friction" (delays, identity verification) that hardware wallets cannot. Long compliant custodians as the "safe haven" for retail wealth against physical extortion. "Not your keys, not your coins" philosophy remains strong among crypto natives. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Katherine Wu
Host / Starkware
|
Ripple is making high-profile charitable donations (cancer center), and "everybody's mom and grandma loves to buy XRP." Despite technical or legal criticisms from the "crypto native" crowd, XRP retains massive, sticky retail brand loyalty ("normie" appeal). The company is leveraging its profitability for "Good Citizen" PR, reinforcing this retail trust. Long XRP based on retail sentiment and brand resilience. Continued SEC litigation or lack of actual utility adoption. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Shaun Lee
Co-founder of OSN (Open Stable Network)
|
"Trade flows... are shifting predominantly from the west to the east primarily coming from China to ASEAN countries... as well as to the UAE." The macroeconomic trend is moving away from Western-centric trade corridors toward an intra-Asian and Middle Eastern bloc. As volume grows in these corridors (UAE-Philippines, China-ASEAN), the underlying economies and their payment volumes will outperform Western counterparts. LONG. Capitalize on the macro rotation of capital and goods into these specific regions. Geopolitical escalation in the South China Sea or Middle East disrupting these specific trade routes. |
CoinDesk
OSN Opens a New Blockchain Payment Rail Betwe...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Shaun Lee
Co-founder of OSN (Open Stable Network)
|
"You need to build infrastructure to solve that... having the infrastructure in place not only to facilitate US dollar stable coins but as well as facilitating local currency staples becomes critically important." As regulators in non-US jurisdictions (UAE, Philippines, Japan) enforce local currency sovereignty, volume will shift from generic USD rails to compliant, local-currency stablecoin infrastructure. Companies building the "last mile" API connections between blockchains and local banking systems will capture the fees from this volume migration. LONG. The sector is pivoting from speculative trading (USD-denominated) to real-world commercial settlement (Local-denominated). Over-regulation stifling adoption or banking partners de-risking from crypto infrastructure providers. |
CoinDesk
OSN Opens a New Blockchain Payment Rail Betwe...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Shaun Lee
Co-founder of OSN (Open Stable Network)
|
"In the stable coin sense right now is probably 99% US dollar... those two numbers [real world trade vs crypto usage] are going to normalize at some point." Currently, USD stablecoins have a near-monopoly (99%). If the market normalizes to match real-world trade flows (where USD is ~60%), USD-pegged assets like USDT could see a relative decline in market share dominance as local currency stablecoins rise to fill the 40% gap. WATCH. While total volume may grow, the *dominance* of USD-only rails is challenged by the rise of sovereign-backed local stablecoins. The network effect of the USD is stronger than anticipated, rendering local stablecoins illiquid. |
CoinDesk
OSN Opens a New Blockchain Payment Rail Betwe...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
AI video and text generation has become so advanced that "you can't tell" if a video is fake or if a person is real (citing a viral Stranger Things AI video). The technology has surpassed the threshold of human discernment. We are entering a phase where "you don't know if what you saw on social media is real" or if the person on the phone is alive. This creates a volatile environment for the sector regarding trust and safety. While capabilities are bullish for tech adoption, the "dark underlying belly" (deepfakes, fraud, impersonation) suggests looming crises that could trigger harsh regulations. Tech advancement continues to outpace regulation, driving stock prices higher despite societal risks. |
Thread Guy
AI is Replacing Dead People & Nobody is Notic...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker emphasizes that "you don't know if the tweet was written by the person... or if the person you're talking to is alive." As the "Dead Internet Theory" becomes reality and AI impersonation becomes perfect, the premium on *verifying* human identity and authenticating content provenance skyrockets. Technologies that prove "personhood" or secure digital identity become the only defense against AI noise. Long the infrastructure required to solve the problem of digital trust that Meta is exacerbating. Adoption of privacy/verification tech lags behind the spread of AI fakes. |
Thread Guy
AI is Replacing Dead People & Nobody is Notic...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
Meta announced/patented an AI capable of taking over deceased users' accounts to continue posting, messaging, and video calling based on historical data. While this theoretically creates "infinite retention" (users never leave the platform), the speaker argues the implications are "terrifying" and likely to be used for "harm, crime, and to cover up crime." This introduces significant reputational, ethical, and potentially legal risks for the platform as it navigates the "uncanny valley." Watch for regulatory backlash or user distrust as the "Dead Internet" reality becomes a mainstream product feature. The market may view this purely as a bullish engagement tool, ignoring the moral hazard. |
Thread Guy
AI is Replacing Dead People & Nobody is Notic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Long rare earth metals is a really good one... China's critical mineral control, sheer dominance... The US can't produce any." China controls the supply chain for the physical materials needed to build chips and defense tech. If geopolitical tensions rise, China could restrict exports (as they have threatened), causing a supply squeeze. The US must desperately invest in securing these "Atoms" to compete. Long as a hedge against Chinese supply dominance and a play on the "Bits to Atoms" thesis. Geopolitical de-escalation or new supply chains coming online slowly. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
AVOID
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Buying Chinese stocks... they're almost impossible to invest in because China does these like state-owned... companies... you get destroyed as an investor." Despite the host's bullishness on China's economic performance (EVs, AI models, consumer tech), the structure of the Chinese market and CCP intervention makes the equities "uninvestable" for Western speculators. Avoid direct exposure despite the "China Maxing" macro thesis. Missing out if China opens markets or sentiment shifts drastically. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Long gold as a proxy for atoms, as a proxy for physical goods... I still stand by long Bitcoin as a mega trend." As AI models become open-source and cheap ("Bits are free"), the economic moat of pure software erodes. Value transfers to scarce, hard assets (Gold) and digital scarcity (Bitcoin) that cannot be commoditized by AI. Long as the ultimate "Mega Trend" hedge against software commoditization and fiat debasement. Regulatory crackdowns or shifts in macro liquidity. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Anything energy compute bottleneck I think goes up only forever." The US government's commitment to winning the AI race requires massive physical infrastructure build-outs. The bottleneck is no longer code, but the electricity and processing power required to run the models. Long the infrastructure layer supporting AI. Regulatory hurdles for new energy projects or hardware supply chain disruptions. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Meta has patented an AI that can keep a deceased person's account active... You don't know if the person you're talking to is alive... Maybe it's Worldcoin. Proof of humanity." As AI creates perfect deepfakes and "dead internet" scenarios, the ability to verify human identity becomes the most valuable commodity. Despite the host calling the project a "piece of [__]," he acknowledges it is the "trade" for this specific dystopian problem. Long as a speculative play on "Proof of Humanity" amidst AI proliferation. Privacy concerns and regulatory pushback against biometric scanning. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"I really like the Palantir trade... US defense that also is an AI proxy... the government is spending more money in the military and they're spending more money on AI." The host argues the AI race is a "national security risk." Consequently, the US government has "no choice" but to provide infinite funding and backstops to AI development. Palantir sits at the exact intersection of AI software and government/defense contracts, making it the primary beneficiary of this forced spending. Long as a proxy for the "AI Arms Race" and government subsidization. Valuation concerns (mentioned as trading at "200 PE"). |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"The other one we've been playing with a lot is Apple. Apple is a really fun one." While not fully expanded upon in this specific transcript, it is flagged as a key component of the "Mega Trend" portfolio alongside Bitcoin and Defense, likely due to its hardware/consumer distribution dominance in an AI world. Long (details to be expanded in future streams). China exposure (supply chain and consumer market). |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Todd Alt
CEO/Founder, Alt Blockchain
|
Todd explicitly states, "We took the initiative of Bitcoin because we're big Bitcoin miners... We took the proof of work concept and said, 'Hey, we're just going to reward you for running a software node.'" He also details the inability to move $200M in Bitcoin liquidity due to banking freezes. The fragility of the fiat banking layer (debanking compliant firms) reinforces the value proposition of permissionless settlement layers (Bitcoin) and the miners that secure them. As banking rails become more restrictive, the premium on "uncensorable infrastructure" increases. LONG. Bitcoin remains the primary hedge against the specific banking failures described. Regulatory crackdowns on mining energy usage or "unhosted" wallets. |
CoinDesk
The Uncensorable Layer 1 Built from Being De-...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
AVOID
|
Todd Alt
CEO/Founder, Alt Blockchain
|
"US Bank debanked all my companies, they debanked and took my wife's Girl Scout cookie away... a random person can decide that you get to pass or not pass." The speaker illustrates a "hostile user experience" within the legacy banking sector. This friction forces capital and high-growth tech companies to build parallel financial systems, eroding the long-term deposit base and relevance of legacy banks for the digital economy. AVOID. The sector faces disruption from the very clients they are excluding. Banks may eventually pivot to embrace crypto rails, recapturing this market share. |
CoinDesk
The Uncensorable Layer 1 Built from Being De-...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Todd Alt
CEO/Founder, Alt Blockchain
|
Todd describes the chain's purpose: "The ability to trade and onboard and offboard real world assets... it's really a giant global market system." The "finance first" thesis relies on moving off-chain assets (RWAs) on-chain to bypass the friction of traditional banking wires and approvals. This validates the broader RWA sector thesis. LONG. Infrastructure that facilitates compliant RWA tokenization will capture institutional flows fleeing banking friction. Regulatory clarity regarding securities laws for tokenized assets. |
CoinDesk
The Uncensorable Layer 1 Built from Being De-...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Todd Alt
CEO/Founder, Alt Blockchain
|
The speaker identifies the corporate structure supporting the new chain: "Universal DeFi under UU on the New York Stock Exchange and then Hyperscale Data [GPUS]... and then the individual chain in the middle." These equities serve as the regulated, public market proxies for the Alt Blockchain ecosystem. With 750,000 nodes reserved and a "super app" strategy, revenue generated by the blockchain's activity will likely accrete to these parent/partner entities. LONG. These are high-beta plays on the adoption of the Alt Layer 1. Execution risk of the blockchain launch; high volatility of micro-cap crypto equities. |
CoinDesk
The Uncensorable Layer 1 Built from Being De-...
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
SHORT
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"The market is absolutely priced in. SAS is in shambles. The market is absolutely not priced in. Code is a commodity." Traditional SaaS companies rely on the moat of proprietary code and high development costs. If AI allows anyone to generate enterprise-grade software instantly ("100% of code... written by AI"), the pricing power and moats of legacy software companies collapse. SHORT or AVOID traditional software companies whose value proposition is based on code scarcity. Regulatory capture or data moats protecting incumbents despite the commoditization of code. |
Thread Guy
Why AI Is Taking Over ALL Coding Jobs..
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Compute is just going to be the most in demand vertical forever for the end of time. You will never be able to get enough of it forever to run this [__] forever." If 100% of code is written by AI, the constraint on software creation is no longer human labor but the processing power required to run the models (Opus 4.6/Codex). Demand for chips and data centers will become infinite as software production becomes frictionless. LONG the infrastructure and hardware powering the AI transition. Supply chain constraints or energy limitations preventing the scaling of compute. |
Thread Guy
Why AI Is Taking Over ALL Coding Jobs..
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"I at this moment have zero stock exposure... And we are about to change that brother... what's going to come out of this to me feels like deep deep deep prosperity... It is the absolute unequivocable roaring 20s." The speaker believes the productivity gains from AI (billion-dollar exits by single individuals in 60 days) will trigger a massive economic boom. He is explicitly pivoting from cash to equities to capture this "renaissance." LONG the broader market to capture the economic expansion driven by AI productivity. Short-term market volatility or a "sell the news" event if the productivity gains take longer to materialize in GDP. |
Thread Guy
Why AI Is Taking Over ALL Coding Jobs..
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"China has unveiled its latest humanoid robot AGI bot... It looks better than what we just watched... It feels like robotics is going to be one of those things that [__] comes out of literal nowhere and hits us like a truck." The market is currently fixated on software AI (LLMs), but physical AI (humanoids) is reaching a tipping point of realism. The shock value of seeing functional humanoids will trigger a massive capital rotation into robotics hardware. LONG Robotics as the next phase of the AI trade. High R&D costs and slower-than-expected commercial deployment compared to software. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"The terminally online screen generation inherently just wants to gamble... Everyone's dopamine receptors are fried... If they can't get the edge in stock market, they'll go to crypto. If they can't get the edge in crypto, they'll go to sports betting." The demand for speculation is inelastic and growing generationally. "Shorting degeneracy" is a losing bet. Therefore, the platforms that facilitate this risk-taking (Robinhood, Coinbase, Sports Betting apps) will see perpetual volume growth regardless of asset quality. LONG the "Casinos" of the digital economy. Regulatory crackdowns on retail speculation or gambling addiction measures. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
|
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"There is no way Logan Paul and Golden Auctions... are going to list this thing for sale and not crime it into an all-time high sale... I like trading on sus." In "event markets" (prediction markets), outcomes involving high-profile influencers or PR stunts are often manipulated or incentivized to hit specific targets (e.g., record-breaking prices). Identifying these "sus" (suspicious/rigged) setups offers high-probability asymmetric returns. LONG Prediction Markets (Strategy call). Platform insolvency or "resolution" disputes where the house rules against the obvious outcome. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research
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ETFs bought ~$54 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $90,000. They are currently "underwater by 10 billion... literally 30 billion too long right now." Institutional investors are sensitive to PnL. As these positions remain underwater, the risk of redemptions increases. Redemptions force ETF issuers to sell spot Bitcoin, creating a negative feedback loop that suppresses price further. AVOID long exposure to Spot Bitcoin ETFs until the overhang clears or the $40k-$50k base is established. Institutional investors may have longer time horizons and refuse to sell, stabilizing the price. |
CoinDesk
Will Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer?
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Feb 17
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SHORT
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Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research
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The speaker explicitly states, "I really think we're going to go to 50,000" and "expecting this summer to trade at 40 to 50K." He notes that the market fell into a "liquidity trap" below $87,000 and that "cascading liquidations... [are] actually the beginning of a downtrend." The rapid rally from $70k to $90k in late 2024 left a volume gap (thin liquidity). As prices reverse, there is little support to stop the fall. Furthermore, the "B-wave" of the correction is ending, and the destructive "C-wave" is beginning, driven by a lack of new buying and forced unwinding of leverage. SHORT Bitcoin targeting a bottom in the $40k-$50k range by Summer 2026. A surprise dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve or unexpected massive inflows into ETFs could invalidate the bearish thesis. |
CoinDesk
Will Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer?
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Feb 17
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WATCH
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Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research
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The market sold off as the probability of Kevin Walsh becoming Fed Chair increased (perceived as hawkish). However, Thielen notes, "he's not going to rock the boat now... but I think then he's going to come out and he's going to be dovish." The current sell-off is partly driven by the repricing of rate cuts (fewer cuts expected). If Walsh is confirmed and subsequently signals a dovish policy (rate cuts/liquidity injection), this will be the macro catalyst for the next bull run. WATCH for Walsh's confirmation hearings and subsequent policy statements to flip from Short to Long. Walsh may actually be hawkish, prolonging the bear market. |
CoinDesk
Will Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer?
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Demand for compute is just the most up only J curve of all time. It might never stop... Whether you're being useful or not... You're burning the same [__] compute." The utility of the output doesn't matter for the hardware provider. HFTs, startups, and enterprises are "cooking tokens" at an exponential rate. This indiscriminate consumption ensures sustained, compounding revenue for the underlying infrastructure and chip providers. LONG. Physical power constraints (electricity) or a sudden burst in the AI valuation bubble. |
Thread Guy
This OpenAI Acquisition Changes Everything..
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Apple releases 1 TBTE Mac Studio M5 Ultra... I love Apple right now... Mac Minis are going to take over the world." As open-source models (like the hypothetical "Open Claw" foundation model) become more powerful, they require massive local memory (RAM) to run efficiently. Apple is uniquely positioned with its Silicon architecture to provide the high-end consumer hardware ("shovels") needed for this local AI inference boom. LONG. Apple fails to release high-memory consumer hardware; inference moves entirely to the cloud rather than local devices. |
Thread Guy
This OpenAI Acquisition Changes Everything..
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Open Claw corporate plan... That's a trillion dollar market opportunity... businesses can use it and it's going to go [__] vertical." OpenAI (and by proxy, Microsoft) is moving to capture the enterprise market by integrating secure, agentic workflows directly into business operations (Slack, company flow). This creates a massive new revenue stream as every white-collar job incorporates these tools. LONG. Enterprise security breaches leading to bans on AI agents in corporate environments. |
Thread Guy
This OpenAI Acquisition Changes Everything..
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Open Claw is the first single person unicorn ever... This is a really big deal and it has pretty intense ramifications... for why I think this whole bubble is going to get crazier." The acquisition of a small, agent-focused team by OpenAI validates the "Agentic" thesis. This will trigger a speculative mania in assets and companies focused on autonomous AI agents, as the market realizes a single person can now generate unicorn-level output. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns on autonomous agents; security risks (API leakage) causing corporate hesitation. |
Thread Guy
This OpenAI Acquisition Changes Everything..
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Feb 17
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SHORT
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Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
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"The revenues from all these companies are basically going to get back in and reinvested in the mega caps... I guarantee you that a lot of people are getting rid of Salesforce because they've just built their own internal tools." AI drastically lowers the barrier to entry for software creation. Companies will stop paying premium subscriptions for "System of Record" software (Salesforce, Atlassian, Intuit, Adobe, Workday) when they can build bespoke internal solutions for a fraction of the cost using AI. This leads to a structural collapse in B2B SaaS revenue. Short legacy B2B SaaS providers on bounces. AI adoption slows down, or these legacy companies successfully pivot to becoming essential AI platforms themselves. |
1000x Podcast
AI Capex Meets SaaS Apocalypse, 18-Month Bear...
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