| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT |
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager |
"The revenues from all these companies are basically going to get back in and reinvested in the mega caps... I guarantee you that a lot of people are getting rid of Salesforce because they've just built their own internal tools." AI drastically lowers the barrier to entry for software creation. Companies will stop paying premium subscriptions for "System of Record" software (Salesforce, Atlassian, Intuit, Adobe, Workday) when they can build bespoke internal solutions for a fraction of the cost using AI. This leads to a structural collapse in B2B SaaS revenue. Short legacy B2B SaaS providers on bounces. AI adoption slows down, or these legacy companies successfully pivot to becoming essential AI platforms themselves. | 16:56 | |
| LONG |
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager |
"The revenues from all these companies are basically going to get back in and reinvested in the mega caps that can actually create them internally. And so this is like the best trade of all time." The money saved by corporations cancelling SaaS subscriptions (Trade #1) flows directly to the Hyperscalers providing the AI compute and models (Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft). Furthermore, these companies are "vertically integrated" (like Exxon in oil), meaning they can absorb their own Capex oversupply through internal utility, unlike standalone data center renters. Long US Big Tech / Hyperscalers as the ultimate beneficiaries of the "SaaS Apocalypse." Regulatory antitrust action or a massive glut in compute that outpaces even internal demand. | 8:14 | |
| LONG |
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager |
"This is the dot com implosion moment where your pets.com goes to zero, but everything else ends up going up... things like Morpho and things like Uniswap... things like Hyperliquid that are generating real capital." The crypto market is bifurcating. Speculative assets with no revenue are entering a deep bear market. However, protocols that generate actual fees and have product-market fit (Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Aerodrome) are currently being dragged down by the broader market beta but represent the "Amazon" opportunities of this cycle. Long high-quality DeFi protocols with real revenue. A prolonged "Crypto Winter" (9-18 months) drags all assets down regardless of fundamentals. | 24:59 | |
| SHORT |
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager |
"Hype's trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Coinbase is just imploding." Decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid are eating Coinbase's market share in volume, yet trade at a fraction of the valuation. As on-chain trading becomes superior, Coinbase's centralized dominance erodes. Short Coinbase (or pair trade: Long HYPE / Short COIN). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi force users back to compliant centralized exchanges. | 4:22 | |
| LONG |
Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland |
"My take is that there is value at like 60 to 64k per BTC and that's where I would look at accumulating longterm." Despite the lack of a current bullish narrative (Gold decoupling, liquidity pause), price action suggests deep value support in the low 60k region. The "Quantum FUD" is a non-issue fundamentally, as the chain would simply fork to a quantum-resistant version. Accumulate Bitcoin in the $60k-$64k zone; aggressive buy at $52k. Global liquidity crunch or a breakdown of the "digital gold" narrative. | 5:57 | |
| SHORT |
Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland |
"In these violent bare markets, you get squeezes. If you're just sitting there ready to with the hammer in your hand, ready to play some whack-a-ole... you can whack some moles." The meme coin supercycle is over, and these assets are in a secular downtrend. However, they experience violent dead-cat bounces. These bounces are not recovery signals but liquidity exit opportunities for short sellers. Short meme coins specifically during 15-20% relief rallies. "Animal spirits" return unexpectedly, causing a short squeeze before the asset goes to zero. | 28:53 |